Pay-to-fly will make it different this time. I think experienced 10,000hr pilots will be of little interest to the airlines that still have a pilot recruitment need. Of much more interest to them will be somebody with 200hrs, willing to write a cheque for £33,000 worth of type rating course (specified training organisation = kickback). Also he/she should be willing to work on a contractor and/or seasonal basis with minimal employment rights and on a 'B scale' wage. Willingness to deploy to any one of a number of EU countries at the drop of a hat an advantage.
Mr, 10,000hr Captain with second wife and three kids in Cheshire may find his CV closer to the bottom of the pile than the top.
Absolutely spot on. But the supply of wannabes who can fund training, let alone PFT/PFJ will be drastically curtailed by the dire economic situation, so PFJ will be a temporary phenomenon the surviving airlines will exploit while they can. Evenutally the supply of and demand for pilots will come back to something more like a balance ... both at a far lower level than today and with far lower average pilot salaries. When that happens PFJ will vanish until the pilot supply gets too high again.