Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
The timeline in the last recession was:
House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.
Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.
Once the unemployment figures have breached 3 million and are falling and once the public spending totals have been slashed; only then will we see how big an aviation sector the new economy can support.
WWW
House price and stock market crash, recession, unemployment rises, recession ends, unemployment continues to rise, large airlines go bust.
Spread that out between 1989 and 1994 and you have a crude measuring stick that one might apply to the current situation.
Once the unemployment figures have breached 3 million and are falling and once the public spending totals have been slashed; only then will we see how big an aviation sector the new economy can support.
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Economic recovery in UK 'on hold'
Some interesting imformations on site for new pilot may bee I not want to start so soon my studys?
The UK economy is set to shrink by 4.5% in this year, the biggest fall in a single year since 1945, according to an influential think-tank.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010.
The downbeat forecast is more pessimistic than the consensus view, and considerably worse than the 3.5% fall predicted by the government.
The Ernst & Young Item Club also warned that hopes of economic recovery are "running ahead of reality".
It does, however, predict a return to modest growth of 0.5% in 2010.
Join Date: Jan 1997
Location: UK
Posts: 7,737
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Why a golden opportunity?
With Avgas only being made in a couple of batches per year there's immense hysteresis in the pricing mechanism and it never approaches the lows for general fuel in a volatile market such as we have had in recent years. Those who actually pay for avgas can confirm this was the case when oil was at it's previous low.
Simply put: at any given time avgas costs don't reflect what you are paying at the pump to fuel cars unless it is upwards.
If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?
Rob
With Avgas only being made in a couple of batches per year there's immense hysteresis in the pricing mechanism and it never approaches the lows for general fuel in a volatile market such as we have had in recent years. Those who actually pay for avgas can confirm this was the case when oil was at it's previous low.
Simply put: at any given time avgas costs don't reflect what you are paying at the pump to fuel cars unless it is upwards.
If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?
Rob
oil is forcast to drop to nearly $20/barrel later on this year (probably won't be quite so dramatic) so i think it's a golden opportunity to start training...
We've already seen oil drop from $147 to around $30 and that hasn't made any difference to job availability, so why should a drop to $20 be any different?
ukdy - true that history doesn't completely repeat itself. Things will be different this time for sure. The whole industry is radically different now compared to 20 years ago if nothing else.
However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bull**** baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.
Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.
Air Europe - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.
It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.
I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!
WWW
However, a knowledge of what happened in previous times of recession and surging unemployment at least provides a rough guide as to what to expect this time. Many Wannabes have little or no idea of how things were in commercial aviation in the period 1990 - 1994. I tend to bring it up a lot so as to encourage them to do a bit of research for themselves. Its all to easy to overwhelmed by the bull**** baffles brains approach of the Flying Training Industry and Her Majestys Government Ministers. Both are apt to lie.
Wikipedia provides suprisingly detailed and accurate articles on the demise of the likes of Dan Air and Air Europe.
At the end of the first week of March 1991 ILG and all of its UK-based subsidiaries entered administration resulting in 4,000 job losses.[6]:353 Many of the aircraft operated by Air Europe and its regional Air Europe Express affiliate were impounded, leaving a large number of passengers stranded at various airports in the UK and overseas.
[edit]Causes of collapse
The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:
A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192
Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.
Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192
ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.
[edit]Causes of collapse
The main causes leading to the collapse of ILG and its UK-based subsidiaries, including Air Europe and Air Europe Express, were:
A major, unforeseen downturn in traffic as a result of the recessionary economic conditions in the UK and a looming war to liberate Kuwait from Iraqi occupation.[1]:169-70, 192
Undercapitalisation.
An unsound financial structure.
Being financially overextended.
Lack of ownership of any significant assets.
A high-risk strategy.
Against the background of a looming war in the Gulf as a result of Iraq's invasion of Kuwait during the summer of 1990 and a major recession in the UK at that time, ILG began suffering heavy losses and mounting debts.[1]:169-70,192
ILG/Air Europe's senior management was aware that ILG had been facing a cash crunch from as early as 1989 onwards. This had made it more and more difficult for the group to finance the aircraft it already had on order, notably the F100s and the MD-11s.
Wannabes are often unaware that in previous recessions large, household name airlines, who have recently grown and expanded and posted healthy profits - go bust. Can you think of any airlines that may currently be undercapitalised, with a somewhat unsound financial structure, who are arguably financially overextended whilst owning few significant assets? I think I can.
It is history that suggests to me that we will not see this period pass without the failure of some bigger beast airlines.
I hope for all our sakes that it doesn't happen. I don't think I could handle being a Wannabe again!
WWW
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Mortgage lending hits six-month high on 17% rise
Mortgage lending to homeowners jumped 17 per cent in June according to new figures, but economists remain cautious over the strength of the property market.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that gross mortgage lending hit a six-month high of £12.3 billion in June, up 17 per cent from £10.5 billion recorded in June.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that gross mortgage lending hit a six-month high of £12.3 billion in June, up 17 per cent from £10.5 billion recorded in June.
You've got to love the spin!
The CML's own figures show gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a record of £34.2bn in June 2007.
June 2009 is is £12.3bn.
And that is being spun as a recovery. Yeah. Right.
Lending is down to 36% of its level two years ago. The market is squarely on its arse and unemployment is rocketing and interest rates will HAVE to rise and rise. Any green shoots will be immediately sprayed with Agent Orange (look it up).
The Council of Mortgage Lenders and the British Banking Association are in competition to spin the most positive spin about the housing market. They almost make the Flying Training Industry look bluntly honest and impartial..
WWW
The CML's own figures show gross mortgage lending in the UK reached a record of £34.2bn in June 2007.
June 2009 is is £12.3bn.
And that is being spun as a recovery. Yeah. Right.
Lending is down to 36% of its level two years ago. The market is squarely on its arse and unemployment is rocketing and interest rates will HAVE to rise and rise. Any green shoots will be immediately sprayed with Agent Orange (look it up).
The Council of Mortgage Lenders and the British Banking Association are in competition to spin the most positive spin about the housing market. They almost make the Flying Training Industry look bluntly honest and impartial..
WWW
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Yorks
Posts: 53
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
God Strewth WWW
Don't you ever get fed up with your Doom Mongering? We all know the Countries 
ed! as do any Wannabies and everyone else. Think positive,cast ya mind back to when you were a Wannabie and NOTHING was gonna stop ya being an 'Airline Pilot'.... Chill out Wee man, it came to you......it will come to others! 
ed! as do any Wannabies and everyone else. Think positive,cast ya mind back to when you were a Wannabie and NOTHING was gonna stop ya being an 'Airline Pilot'.... Chill out Wee man, it came to you......it will come to others!
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Hallandale Beach, FL
Age: 53
Posts: 43
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Moaning Moping Morrissey
WWW - I agree with much of your analysis on the economy but eventually some good will come of this almighty clusterf*ck - one thing that will be better is that real UK house prices will be at least 50% lower than they were in 2007 ... or to put it another way, 100% more affordable to CTC/OAA/Jerez cadets who paid 80+ to get a summer only job that pays less than a tube driver. Also the lack of financing options - even most branches of Bank of Mater & Pater will stop lending soon - HAS to reduce the pool of low hours pilots which will eventually benefit T&C for existing drivers. The signs that the FTOs are getting desperate are there for everyone to see and the numbers coming through WILL drop dramatically very soon. In general I don't buy in to the theory that markets are self balancing but this one will.
I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.
I quit the UK last summer but for 15 years before that I was paid well by the industry that caused this mess. You've mentioned the shape of the curve before but it's no crystal ball - it can be wrong, it has been wrong before and it might be wrong now ... and since you know what it is supposed to mean would you rather see it inverted? We're in completely uncharted territory and nobody knows what the new economy will look like for airlines or anyone else when the dust eventually settles.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
If you want to cut and paste your researches how about the section in the latest oil reports specific to transportation fuel?
There is some truth in what you have said though.
WWW don't worry i'll convert you yet! we are in one big mess and it will take time to get out off but there a certain hopeful signs
Join Date: Jan 1997
Location: UK
Posts: 7,737
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Research? The link to the last global oil report is already on the forum.
Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?
Rob
Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?
Rob
Join Date: Jan 1997
Location: UK
Posts: 7,737
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ryanair Stansted contraction
Ryanair - News : Ryanair Cuts Stansted Winter Capacity by 40%
Caution, the place you are entering might not be entirely spin proof
Rob
Caution, the place you are entering might not be entirely spin proof
Rob
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Now then - how about pointing out the 'some truth' bit given you were suggesting to a poster that avgas prices would be declining significantly? Or is is a continuation of your contention back in June that oil would be going up to $200 usd per barrel?
I'll say it again get of your ass and find the figures for yourself i certainly won't help you.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
No Inflation for a while yet ......
Hoisington's Quarterly out look and Review...
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf
Or Scribd link....
HIM2009Q2NP
Thus, theory and current evidence clearly point to deflation as the overwhelming economic risk.
http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2009Q2NP.pdf
Or Scribd link....
HIM2009Q2NP
Last edited by cjd_a320; 21st Jul 2009 at 13:25.
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: The Desert but shortly to be HK!)
Age: 49
Posts: 474
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A quick message to "G-Spot lost"... in September last year we had a bet that Netjets would be laying of a significant number of people within a year.... I said they would... you said they wouldn't.... I believe the wager was a donation to the Pprune fund.... shall we declare this bet now closed?? 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The East
Posts: 6
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Things not bad as some peopes says for UK economy, I staying in Acton with Uncle Alexander he out of work actor at home but he get lot of work doing voice on advertizment.
I would like do this but for next flying lesson I must wash lot of cars.
I would like do this but for next flying lesson I must wash lot of cars.
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 139
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Why are people in a rush....??
Come back in ten years with a pot full of savings and ride the wave* back up.... Untill then sit back and watch from a distance...while the herd try and catch the falling knife....
*Countercyclical over the larger degree time frame...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still deflating.....
Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens ..
Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Come back in ten years with a pot full of savings and ride the wave* back up.... Untill then sit back and watch from a distance...while the herd try and catch the falling knife....
*Countercyclical over the larger degree time frame...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Still deflating.....
Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens ..
Continental Air to Cut 1,700 More Jobs as Loss Widens (Update1) - Bloomberg.com
Last edited by cjd_a320; 22nd Jul 2009 at 00:15.
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Ryanair to put scheduled routes on ice over winter
Ryanair is to cut 670 flights a week, close ten routes and reduce frequency on a further 30 routes in the biggest winter shake-up for the airline so far.
and so it begins
A leading think-tank is predicting it may take another five years for income per head to return to the level it was before the recession hit in early 2008.