Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Sure, it's painful reading for people like me who are gagging for their first break. But bitter pills are always hard to swallow....
My concern is not with the cyclical nature or severity of this particular recession - it's the unfortunate timing. The good thing is I've returned to well paid IT work after completing training and sure... all loans get paid off eventually. Age and recency of skill are/will be major concerns.
Maybe this is why people "gave up" as RedSnail put it? All I know is it would be devastating to not be afforded a decent shot due to forces beyond control (at least by us minions!). Maybe that's why wannabe's are so defensive?
My concern is not with the cyclical nature or severity of this particular recession - it's the unfortunate timing. The good thing is I've returned to well paid IT work after completing training and sure... all loans get paid off eventually. Age and recency of skill are/will be major concerns.
Maybe this is why people "gave up" as RedSnail put it? All I know is it would be devastating to not be afforded a decent shot due to forces beyond control (at least by us minions!). Maybe that's why wannabe's are so defensive?
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I find Redsnail's stats post very interesting.
Really only 25% of their ATPL class went onto to work in the industry? Shocking.
I have tried trawling for post training employment figures in this industry (past the OAA spiel which seems pointless for a couple of reasons) and this information is quite hard to come by, if not impossible.
But then I suppose the uptake on courses might not be so good if it was generally known that your 40-80k stake buys you e.g. a 1 in 4 chance of a job.
It really seems to be all about timing, persistence, and the ever present "6 P's", of which one component is definitely coming onto fora such as this, and reading what WWW and others have to say, being as they are old hands at commercial flying.
Good luck all.
JR
Really only 25% of their ATPL class went onto to work in the industry? Shocking.
I have tried trawling for post training employment figures in this industry (past the OAA spiel which seems pointless for a couple of reasons) and this information is quite hard to come by, if not impossible.
But then I suppose the uptake on courses might not be so good if it was generally known that your 40-80k stake buys you e.g. a 1 in 4 chance of a job.
It really seems to be all about timing, persistence, and the ever present "6 P's", of which one component is definitely coming onto fora such as this, and reading what WWW and others have to say, being as they are old hands at commercial flying.
Good luck all.
JR
From a recent conversation: "75% of people who get a UK CAA class one medical never get an ATPL"
But sod that, I'm off to re-mortage my parents house and enroll at OATS right now!
The recessions over folks, don't miss the boat!
But sod that, I'm off to re-mortage my parents house and enroll at OATS right now!
The recessions over folks, don't miss the boat!
Last edited by Jonty; 21st Aug 2009 at 13:18. Reason: cause I is thick!
N4790P
I’m not sure how the current situation within SE Asian translates to that within Europe although traditionally this part of the world has been far more resilient to downturns and has tended to recover far quicker than Europe.
If our experiences here are anything to go by then the downturn is far from over and is still to reach the bottom.
I operate within an environment where (apart from recurrency checking) many pilots would obtain the initial type rating and go off to commence their airline careers.
The biggest problem 12 months ago was availability – we were booked out up to 6 months in advance.
Again just 12 months ago a TRE/TRI or a current P1 with sufficient hours on type could basically name his or her price with carriers especially within India and a few other countries which in turn stimulated the market and our particular operation was quite buoyant.
Fast forward to today and the situation is quite different – of the 35+ airlines we support, without exception all of them have cut back their training requirements, some by up to 35% with type rating requirements especially reduced.
The forecast for 2010 is no better and I would not be surprised to see another 20% reduction of overall capacity within this particular sector.
Traditionally we see an average 15% annual attrition rate so by inference there will be no requirements for additions crews within this decade as the surplus should be adequate.
If our experiences here are going to be replicated within Europe then opportunities for anyone commencing training now are going to be very limited.
WWWs advice does unfortunately appear to be very sound.
Irrespective, I wish all aspiring pilots good luck with their endeavours – just enter this with your eyes wide open.
If our experiences here are anything to go by then the downturn is far from over and is still to reach the bottom.
I operate within an environment where (apart from recurrency checking) many pilots would obtain the initial type rating and go off to commence their airline careers.
The biggest problem 12 months ago was availability – we were booked out up to 6 months in advance.
Again just 12 months ago a TRE/TRI or a current P1 with sufficient hours on type could basically name his or her price with carriers especially within India and a few other countries which in turn stimulated the market and our particular operation was quite buoyant.
Fast forward to today and the situation is quite different – of the 35+ airlines we support, without exception all of them have cut back their training requirements, some by up to 35% with type rating requirements especially reduced.
The forecast for 2010 is no better and I would not be surprised to see another 20% reduction of overall capacity within this particular sector.
Traditionally we see an average 15% annual attrition rate so by inference there will be no requirements for additions crews within this decade as the surplus should be adequate.
If our experiences here are going to be replicated within Europe then opportunities for anyone commencing training now are going to be very limited.
WWWs advice does unfortunately appear to be very sound.
Irrespective, I wish all aspiring pilots good luck with their endeavours – just enter this with your eyes wide open.
Last edited by ZFT; 22nd Aug 2009 at 06:34.
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Jonty wrote:
Probabely...But:
In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year. In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the U.S.A. These high prices caused a dramatic drop in demand and prices fell below $35 a barrel at the end of 2008. Some believe that this oil price spike was the product of Peak Oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.
Times have changed. Hard to admit it I know.
The recessions over folks, don't miss the boat!
In January 2008, oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel for the first time, the first of many price milestones to be passed in the course of the year. In July 2008, oil peaked at $147.30 a barrel and a gallon of gasoline was more than $4 across most of the U.S.A. These high prices caused a dramatic drop in demand and prices fell below $35 a barrel at the end of 2008. Some believe that this oil price spike was the product of Peak Oil. There is concern that if the economy was to improve, oil prices might return to pre-recession levels.
Times have changed. Hard to admit it I know.
From his posting history he appears to be ex-military, living in Scotland, a house owner who believes values have not fallen who persistently appears on this thread spouting bullish comments. He also appears to have been doing his ATPL exams in the last 12 months so I doubt he's actually ever had a job offer from an airline - he may not actually be a qualified pilot yet.
I suppose it can be quite hard if you've just left the public sector seeking employment in the private sector world of commercial aviation just as the worst recession since the Great Depression hits...
WWW
I suppose it can be quite hard if you've just left the public sector seeking employment in the private sector world of commercial aviation just as the worst recession since the Great Depression hits...
WWW
PPRuNe Handmaiden
Foghorn,
What package I took is irrelevant, if indeed I did take a package.
The post I made highlights the issue of timing. If you get the timing wrong and you do not have the funds to keep the IR skills current, then when the upturn comes, you'll struggle to get through the sim selection. All the positive words in the world will not help that.
Also, if you care to scan ever so higher up the thread you'll see I posted some practical advice.
What package I took is irrelevant, if indeed I did take a package.
The post I made highlights the issue of timing. If you get the timing wrong and you do not have the funds to keep the IR skills current, then when the upturn comes, you'll struggle to get through the sim selection. All the positive words in the world will not help that.
Also, if you care to scan ever so higher up the thread you'll see I posted some practical advice.
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For some other stats, of my ATPL theory class of 10 in 2004 arguably during the good times:
Myself and Charlie are now A320 pilots both SSTR through the previous GECAT cadet scheme. I have around 2300 hours or so, it is looking very likely I will be made redundant from my UK airline permanent contract job (under Balpa negotiation at the moment). The company has not made any pilots redundant in over 40 years. The company Charlie works for is looking shaky. I have been flying jets since 2006, I still have £20,000 training debt, that was from modular fATPL and SSTR.
Of the GECAT cadets who trained around the time I was there, 100% found an airline job, everyone I know is currently employed, although that is likely to change soon. The GECAT scheme died in 2008 as far as I know, speaking to the woman coordinating the scheme basically they couldn't place anyone anymore.
Another chap, Ash, last I heard is flying the ATR after paying for a type rating.
The other employed ATPL 'graduate' is a PPL instructor and failing to move onto anything. As an ex instructor, I don't think I could have handled it for too many years.
All others have left aviation. Personally knowing what I know I wouldn't recommend any friends of mine to start professional aviation training at the moment, or for a significant period of time.
Myself and Charlie are now A320 pilots both SSTR through the previous GECAT cadet scheme. I have around 2300 hours or so, it is looking very likely I will be made redundant from my UK airline permanent contract job (under Balpa negotiation at the moment). The company has not made any pilots redundant in over 40 years. The company Charlie works for is looking shaky. I have been flying jets since 2006, I still have £20,000 training debt, that was from modular fATPL and SSTR.
Of the GECAT cadets who trained around the time I was there, 100% found an airline job, everyone I know is currently employed, although that is likely to change soon. The GECAT scheme died in 2008 as far as I know, speaking to the woman coordinating the scheme basically they couldn't place anyone anymore.
Another chap, Ash, last I heard is flying the ATR after paying for a type rating.
The other employed ATPL 'graduate' is a PPL instructor and failing to move onto anything. As an ex instructor, I don't think I could have handled it for too many years.
All others have left aviation. Personally knowing what I know I wouldn't recommend any friends of mine to start professional aviation training at the moment, or for a significant period of time.
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Tom:
While I completely agree with your concern about aviation, and the job prospects associated, I am not too sure about the timing you recommend.
If a newcomer decide today to find a good academy to start his PPL training at the next session, to the day he finishes his type rating, 3 years will be spent.
Now you tell me that no airline will hire anybody mid-2012? If this is true, it couldn' t be because of the present recession, so tell me what would the reason be then?
When the industry is booming, this too late to start your training (like, in the present case, mid 2006 and after), because if you do so, you would finish your training at the beginning of the recession/or low side of the cycle, which would be in the presnet case mid 2008 and after.
In this situation, keeping current would be a difficult challenge, without any job and flying.
So finishing you training mid-end 2008 is not the same as finishing it mid 2012. You have to think a bit ahead.
During the past last 60 years many students have done the same timing mistake. Not you apparently, you are the very proof of what I explain:
If you had started few years later, when everybody was hiring, not sure you would have been hired at all.
Alright, my comment was just about the timing.
Otherwise, I am not overall too optimistic. Too many pilot student are trained, and the oil price will be a terrible issue within few months. We saw in the news paper this week that the recession is about to finish, and meanwhile oil increased, within the same week, by 15 $!!! If it doesn' t ring a bell...
Personally knowing what I know I wouldn't recommend any friends of mine to start professional aviation training at the moment, or for a significant period of time.
If a newcomer decide today to find a good academy to start his PPL training at the next session, to the day he finishes his type rating, 3 years will be spent.
Now you tell me that no airline will hire anybody mid-2012? If this is true, it couldn' t be because of the present recession, so tell me what would the reason be then?
When the industry is booming, this too late to start your training (like, in the present case, mid 2006 and after), because if you do so, you would finish your training at the beginning of the recession/or low side of the cycle, which would be in the presnet case mid 2008 and after.
In this situation, keeping current would be a difficult challenge, without any job and flying.
So finishing you training mid-end 2008 is not the same as finishing it mid 2012. You have to think a bit ahead.
During the past last 60 years many students have done the same timing mistake. Not you apparently, you are the very proof of what I explain:
For some other stats, of my ATPL theory class of 10 in 2004 arguably during the good times Of the GECAT cadets who trained around the time I was there, 100% found an airline job
Alright, my comment was just about the timing.
Otherwise, I am not overall too optimistic. Too many pilot student are trained, and the oil price will be a terrible issue within few months. We saw in the news paper this week that the recession is about to finish, and meanwhile oil increased, within the same week, by 15 $!!! If it doesn' t ring a bell...
Last edited by KAG; 23rd Aug 2009 at 06:35.
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Can't see how any of the proposed outcomes won't lead to more job losses.... dark days indeed....
Lufthansa plots sale of BMI British Midland to Virgin Atlantic - Times Online
Lufthansa plots sale of BMI British Midland to Virgin Atlantic - Times Online
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You can knock WWW all you like...
... but for a long time he has injected a much-needed shot of reality into this forum. This old timer went through 3 recessions in almost 30 years (none as severe as this one) and witnessed countless wannabees blindly wading into flight training and debt, only to discover that economic recovery was weaker and later than many dreamers and "experts" had forecast. I was taught in the late 70s.. "only spend the money if you can afford to lose it."
It seems that some things in aviation change rapidly... but some things don't change at all. Nevertheless, good luck to you all! bm
It seems that some things in aviation change rapidly... but some things don't change at all. Nevertheless, good luck to you all! bm
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KAG, while it has been a while since I trained, I would have thought it wouldn't necessarily take 3 years to finish an fATPL with a type rating from scratch. PPL can take a few months (with time for bad weather), ATPL theory 6 months, 2 months hour building, CPL/IR in 5 months with time for bad weather etc, then 2 months TR. Around 1.5 years I would guess if you pushed through it, two years most.
The other option would be to get your PPL done and hour build during the bad times, primed to pounce on the commercial training when the time is right through a modular route.
I seem to remember about a 10 year period on aviation cycle in a historical sense, so once the upturn starts, I would think if you start your training then, after 2 years you will approach the very good recruitment times, with enough time to secure your seniority before the next downswing?
Tom.
The other option would be to get your PPL done and hour build during the bad times, primed to pounce on the commercial training when the time is right through a modular route.
I seem to remember about a 10 year period on aviation cycle in a historical sense, so once the upturn starts, I would think if you start your training then, after 2 years you will approach the very good recruitment times, with enough time to secure your seniority before the next downswing?
Tom.
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Aer Lingus losses TREBLE
From all leading papers:
Losses at Aer Lingus, the struggling Irish airline, more than trebled in the first half, leaving the carrier facing a "highly uncertain outlook".
”Aer Lingus expects that the continuation of the current market trends in Ireland and its other key markets will lead to further sustained and significant fare pressure,” the airline said.
”This dynamic and very challenging environment contributes to a highly uncertain outlook.”
Ryanair, the Irish budget carrier, retains a 29 per cent stake in Aer Lingus after two failed takeover bids.
Last month Ryanair revised down its full-year profit forecast after being forced to slash fares to fill seats on its aircraft.
Colm Barrington, the chairman of Aer Lingus, said: ”This revenue environment, coupled with an uncompetitive cost base, means that we must now take difficult but necessary steps to address our business model and cost base so that we ensure Aer Lingus is viable over the long term.”
Losses at Aer Lingus, the struggling Irish airline, more than trebled in the first half, leaving the carrier facing a "highly uncertain outlook".
”Aer Lingus expects that the continuation of the current market trends in Ireland and its other key markets will lead to further sustained and significant fare pressure,” the airline said.
”This dynamic and very challenging environment contributes to a highly uncertain outlook.”
Ryanair, the Irish budget carrier, retains a 29 per cent stake in Aer Lingus after two failed takeover bids.
Last month Ryanair revised down its full-year profit forecast after being forced to slash fares to fill seats on its aircraft.
Colm Barrington, the chairman of Aer Lingus, said: ”This revenue environment, coupled with an uncompetitive cost base, means that we must now take difficult but necessary steps to address our business model and cost base so that we ensure Aer Lingus is viable over the long term.”
Lets hope the good times will come back.
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House prices rise most since 2004
House prices in England and Wales rose by 1.7% in July compared with June - the biggest monthly leap in value since July 2004, the Land Registry said.
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Now here IS something to worry about!!...
OK it's a long way off, but the new high speed rail line from Edinburgh/ Glasgow to London has been announced with claims that the journey time will be just 2 Hours!
Now, I for one would pay any price premium to avoid having to check in what is now nearly 1.5 hrs before your filght to be safe and avoid security hold ups plus, the faf that goes with getting to and from airports both ends.
Given that there are around 125 domestic flights between london's 5 airports and scotland every day, that number will be slashed as convenience drives passengers towards rail travel.
OK it's a long way off, and we all know it will be over budget and very very late, but this is long term very bad news for domestic carriers.
But hey, given this Countries ability to compete on time, we will all be retired and using our bus passes befor it's a problem
OK it's a long way off, but the new high speed rail line from Edinburgh/ Glasgow to London has been announced with claims that the journey time will be just 2 Hours!
Now, I for one would pay any price premium to avoid having to check in what is now nearly 1.5 hrs before your filght to be safe and avoid security hold ups plus, the faf that goes with getting to and from airports both ends.
Given that there are around 125 domestic flights between london's 5 airports and scotland every day, that number will be slashed as convenience drives passengers towards rail travel.
OK it's a long way off, and we all know it will be over budget and very very late, but this is long term very bad news for domestic carriers.
But hey, given this Countries ability to compete on time, we will all be retired and using our bus passes befor it's a problem
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wouldnt worry about that trainline
hi all
i wouldnt worry about the competition from that proposed edinburgh to london high speed train. the government would be paying for that and if you believe in sky news (pinch or handful of salt) it would cost many tens of billions of pounds (forget the figure they said).. Can the government afford that? NO.. if by some miracle it did get built what would be cost be for a ticket?? HUGE.
i wouldnt worry about the competition from that proposed edinburgh to london high speed train. the government would be paying for that and if you believe in sky news (pinch or handful of salt) it would cost many tens of billions of pounds (forget the figure they said).. Can the government afford that? NO.. if by some miracle it did get built what would be cost be for a ticket?? HUGE.
heli port, for the three years following the end of the last major recession house prices rose a third of the time in the monthly figures. Often for consecutive months. This time will be no different. If you believe house price inflation is occuring in a time of markedly rising unemployment with interest rates CERTAIN to rise strongly then you are believing in something which has never happened before.
Net lending in June 2009 for house purchasing was at a nine year low.
If a few millionaires sell their mansions and hardly anything else moves then house price sales data will show strong increases in average house prices.
This means nothing.
They are down 25% and they have another 10% left to fall in nominal terms. After that they will lag inflation and thus fall in real terms for several years.
Idiots tempted by current 'bargains' at 25% off peak bubble valuations are just cannon fodder.
Japan, is in a spiral death dive of deflation. The last quarter figures were horrendous. The Baltic Dry Index is flashing CRISIS again. China has stopped restocking. The multi-Billion funny money injections will run out early next year and the meagre GDP growth (end of technical recession bravado) will go with it. Back to recession. And this time a few redundancies, cancelling the Christmas party fund and putting people on short time WON'T be enough.
I've shorted the FTSE today over the next 6 months at £9 a point. This suckers gonna blow.
WWW
Net lending in June 2009 for house purchasing was at a nine year low.
If a few millionaires sell their mansions and hardly anything else moves then house price sales data will show strong increases in average house prices.
This means nothing.
They are down 25% and they have another 10% left to fall in nominal terms. After that they will lag inflation and thus fall in real terms for several years.
Idiots tempted by current 'bargains' at 25% off peak bubble valuations are just cannon fodder.
Japan, is in a spiral death dive of deflation. The last quarter figures were horrendous. The Baltic Dry Index is flashing CRISIS again. China has stopped restocking. The multi-Billion funny money injections will run out early next year and the meagre GDP growth (end of technical recession bravado) will go with it. Back to recession. And this time a few redundancies, cancelling the Christmas party fund and putting people on short time WON'T be enough.
I've shorted the FTSE today over the next 6 months at £9 a point. This suckers gonna blow.
WWW