Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Originally Posted by WWW
Today was a dead cat bounce. And a modest one at that.
You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.
WWW
You loose 1,000 points one week and make 200 back the following Monday after £50bn of rescue and I end up more worried than I was last week. I call 3,500 for the FTSE within 6 months. All eyes now on the unemployment numbers after Christmas.
WWW
Is it me or does the 'return lending to 2007 levels' caveat sound like they want to have their cake and eat it ?
WWW, I hope you have a robust pension scheme, I do.
The Council of Mortgage Lenders took about 5 minutes to slap down the idea of returning to 2007 lending rates in a press release. Perhaps it was a coincidence that the Nationwide announced the end of all its 90% LTV products.
As of tomorrow you'll need a 15% deposit to become a Nationwide customer - clearly they don't fancy going back to 2007 lending practice and they are the nations biggest building society by a long long chalk.
As I said - bottom is April 2010 at £127k
WWW
As of tomorrow you'll need a 15% deposit to become a Nationwide customer - clearly they don't fancy going back to 2007 lending practice and they are the nations biggest building society by a long long chalk.
As I said - bottom is April 2010 at £127k
WWW
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Originally Posted by www
As I said - bottom is April 2010 at £127k
Average house price in England and Wales I was talking about. Building land is being sold at firesale prices by most developers. Brickies day rates half halved since Spring, roofers are desperate etc etc. Regardless of which that price is only winding back to April 2002 prices.
A five year retrenchment last time and this time looks like this:
July '84 £75,610 (60 months) July '89 £117,579 = of peak 64.3%
April '02 £127,758 (63 months) July '07 £193,153 = of peak 66.1%
The 3 months difference is just where I happen to have the data to hand. those are inflation adjusted figures from Nationwide PLc. I actually expect this crash to be worse as the leverage is higher, the price/income ratio higher and the BTL phenomena a new and destablising element.
The recession won't end until some time after houses have stopped dropping in cost.
WWW
A five year retrenchment last time and this time looks like this:
July '84 £75,610 (60 months) July '89 £117,579 = of peak 64.3%
April '02 £127,758 (63 months) July '07 £193,153 = of peak 66.1%
The 3 months difference is just where I happen to have the data to hand. those are inflation adjusted figures from Nationwide PLc. I actually expect this crash to be worse as the leverage is higher, the price/income ratio higher and the BTL phenomena a new and destablising element.
The recession won't end until some time after houses have stopped dropping in cost.
WWW
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As of tomorrow you'll need a 15% deposit to become a Nationwide customer
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British House Prices Down By 40%
"British House Prices Down By 40%"
As reported by sky. So ok it's a little but of hysteria here as they seem to have found THE 3 house's in the uk that have fallen by between 40-53% but this is the reality for the coming months/years.
I think these are exceptions, no doubt investors cutting their losses and bailing out with what ever they can find, but if these house/flat's aren't being sold then what are the chances of the market value house's?!
These figures are the true fall of the property market, but the real world figures will take 18-24 months to show this across the whole housing market..
How long before the Government step in to help?? I'd say 6 months..
As reported by sky. So ok it's a little but of hysteria here as they seem to have found THE 3 house's in the uk that have fallen by between 40-53% but this is the reality for the coming months/years.
I think these are exceptions, no doubt investors cutting their losses and bailing out with what ever they can find, but if these house/flat's aren't being sold then what are the chances of the market value house's?!
These figures are the true fall of the property market, but the real world figures will take 18-24 months to show this across the whole housing market..
How long before the Government step in to help?? I'd say 6 months..
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How long before the Government step in to help?? I'd say 6 months..
Last edited by chickentikkamasala; 14th Oct 2008 at 16:47.
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The house I sold last summer is now presently on the market for 15% less than what they paid for it. It's been up for sale for around 5 months. I'd like to claim I saw the iceberg ahead and that's why I sold-up, but I can't. It was sheer good fortune.
50% seems over the odds. Certainly the houses I'm currently looking at are not more than 10% less, but the words 'guide price' is used quite a bit these days. I get the impression many are in denial.
I'm just hoping they fall 50%, so I can get a really good deal. Steer clear of flats on big estates, or in the centre of a city is my advice.
50% seems over the odds. Certainly the houses I'm currently looking at are not more than 10% less, but the words 'guide price' is used quite a bit these days. I get the impression many are in denial.
I'm just hoping they fall 50%, so I can get a really good deal. Steer clear of flats on big estates, or in the centre of a city is my advice.
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Originally Posted by no sponsor
I get the impression many are in denial.
With inflation at 5% and prices falling by 13% in nominal anounts on official data the real value reduction is -18% annually. Another year and a bit and you've got 50% falls in real terms.
WWW
WWW
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WWW this thread was intended to focus on the positive's (abeit the few of them that are around of late) rather than the negative's (of which there seem to be plenty) so can we get back to that rather than you promoting more doom and gloom. I don't ment that in a pissy way before you jump down my throat but I think you'll agree that we've all had enough bad news in recents weeks/months every time we open the newspaper or switch on the news and to be fair there is a dedicated 'Doom and Gloom' thread about the down turn being upon us. So any chance anyone has seen the rise in the majority of the major stock markets today as a result of the worlds governments finally pulling their finger out of their arse??? A very small step forwards which could very well be too late to halt a recession but its the only forward step we've seen in months so let's at least be a bit more cheerful this evening!
(I now await the verbal onslaught from WWW)
(I now await the verbal onslaught from WWW)
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Crude oil now $79,.. back where it was a year ago, not quite the $200 predicted by our resident experts!!
Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.
Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %
Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs!
Before the onslaught of verbal crap about oil prices meaning nothing,… it’s what every failed airline has blamed for their problems, and ,it’s got to be a sign that things are getting just a bit better.
Interest rates predicted to fall by another 1/2 %
Let's acknowledge at least some positive signs!
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but I think you'll agree that we've all had enough bad news in recents weeks/months every time we open the newspaper or switch on the news and to be fair there is a dedicated 'Doom and Gloom' thread about the down turn being upon us.
Personally I think it bodes well for wannabees that Easy and FR are potentially building customer loyalty before there is a significant down turn across the board.
Lowering interest rates may help some households from getting into arrears and it may help to cushion the house price crash but it's not going to prevent a resession.
Some economists and financial experts are suggesting we may have seen the bottom of the market, others believe we are in for one more final crash before the bear market is over and we can start to fully recover.
Patience is the key imo and you can use the time by self studying.
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Hi folks,
Just drifted into this thread by accident but makes very interesting reading indeed and I hope you wont mind me throwing my cap into the ring.
Firstly, it's extremely difficult for anyone to predict the future of any market, aviation included. Remember earleir in the year the most prominent analysts in the land were predicting "oil armageddon" with oil busting $200 a barrel. Well, it didn't happen and now there's a lot of chin rubbing and beard stroking going on and a flurry of revisions of previous forecasts to somewhere below $100 a unit. They get gazillions a year and the best they can do is be wildly out - heaven preserve us from these idiots and their predictions.
Similarly, be aware of the barrack room analysts on this forum, with predictions of doom and gloom and procrastinations of "I saw this coming" "yeeeap, told you so" blah 5% blah 15% yada yada.
Fact - history is a great teller of stories. Just look back at any market and you'll see that a cycle emerges. It's just the law of the jungle so to speak. Things will get better again, they always do and for those of you embarking on your journeys, keep your chins up and try to avoid getting drawn into the negativity. If I were in your position, I would view my training time as time away from the turmoil. Enjoy the experience and remember that every day passing is a move to better times. Don't create problems that don't exist - deal with them as they arise. If there aren't many jobs around at present but you're in the process of training toward your ticket, then you don't yet have a problem. What if? What if? Well, if me Aunty had boll**ks then she'd be me uncle.
Stay positive and focused, help each other. Put the word out when you hear someone's hiring or ordering airframes. Introduce positivity to the game. Don't be dragged down by the doom merchants and the media - remember, good news isn't good press and in many respects we get the media we deserve.
I'm left seat now for a prominent player in the loco market and having a ball but I have been where you are and if I had believed half the sh*t I heard as a fledgling, I wouldn't have got out of bed in the morning.
Pick your target, go for it and dont let anyone tell you otherwise. I hope to work with some of you soon and remember that 95.451% of all statistics are boll**k:s
Gashog
Group hug anyone?
Just drifted into this thread by accident but makes very interesting reading indeed and I hope you wont mind me throwing my cap into the ring.
Firstly, it's extremely difficult for anyone to predict the future of any market, aviation included. Remember earleir in the year the most prominent analysts in the land were predicting "oil armageddon" with oil busting $200 a barrel. Well, it didn't happen and now there's a lot of chin rubbing and beard stroking going on and a flurry of revisions of previous forecasts to somewhere below $100 a unit. They get gazillions a year and the best they can do is be wildly out - heaven preserve us from these idiots and their predictions.
Similarly, be aware of the barrack room analysts on this forum, with predictions of doom and gloom and procrastinations of "I saw this coming" "yeeeap, told you so" blah 5% blah 15% yada yada.
Fact - history is a great teller of stories. Just look back at any market and you'll see that a cycle emerges. It's just the law of the jungle so to speak. Things will get better again, they always do and for those of you embarking on your journeys, keep your chins up and try to avoid getting drawn into the negativity. If I were in your position, I would view my training time as time away from the turmoil. Enjoy the experience and remember that every day passing is a move to better times. Don't create problems that don't exist - deal with them as they arise. If there aren't many jobs around at present but you're in the process of training toward your ticket, then you don't yet have a problem. What if? What if? Well, if me Aunty had boll**ks then she'd be me uncle.
Stay positive and focused, help each other. Put the word out when you hear someone's hiring or ordering airframes. Introduce positivity to the game. Don't be dragged down by the doom merchants and the media - remember, good news isn't good press and in many respects we get the media we deserve.
I'm left seat now for a prominent player in the loco market and having a ball but I have been where you are and if I had believed half the sh*t I heard as a fledgling, I wouldn't have got out of bed in the morning.
Pick your target, go for it and dont let anyone tell you otherwise. I hope to work with some of you soon and remember that 95.451% of all statistics are boll**k:s
Gashog
Group hug anyone?
Last edited by GasHog; 15th Oct 2008 at 00:08.
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Just my few cents!
For most people who have to do things the hard way, living the dream by working hard for years, saving every penny and getting a loan to fly, times are obviously tough. As banks go back to the old days, where loans are negotiated over lengthy meetings with the bank manager and credit ratings are meticulously looked over with a fine tooth comb rather than through a text message or a flyer in the mail, the old flying loans are going to be hard to come by.
Airlines are obviously scaling down their employment. For my own amusement, I had a look through the 'majorish' airlines in the UK and found most application procedures closed until further notice, where you could not apply, even if you wanted to as the website was closed. Again a sign that we are in the toilet of the downturn.
However, if you do have the money, now is the time to start your training. If you qualify for your fATPL during the downturn, once all of the furloughed pilots are hired, you will be top of the list. Don't put off your training if you have the money just because there are no jobs at the present, be ready to be the first to jump on the band wagon when it recovers. I myself was one of those pilots who trained post 9/11. As many wannabe pilots decided to postpone their training, I chose to continue to follow the dream and am now a captain of a small but reputable little airliner and loving every minute of it.
I have a meeting with some A-Level students on the 21st on what it's like to be an airline pilot. One of the first things I am going to tell them is go to university first. Have a back up plan as the industry is so volitile you don't know what it might throw at you. However, if you have the money, get that training under your belt to be the first to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise.
I was flying with a first officer recently who is more than ready to take the reigns in the left seat. I asked him why he had not gone and got his ATPL already. He told me that months back he had been speaking to another captain and he had told him that there were people ahead of him in seniority and there was no rush. So instead of spending his hard earned cash on a valuble ATPL, he spent his money on a big screen TV and a holiday. As lovely as those things are, he is only now going to get his ATPL, and in three months when it arrives in the post, he won't be able to upgrade as due to the downturn in our industry, all the skippers positions will be filled. If he had chosen to do it when he had the money, regardless of his seniority, he would be captain already.
As harsh as it sounds, people thrive on others misfortune. If you have the money, now is the time to buy houses. If you have the money, now is the time to buy shares. If you have the money, now is the time to learn to fly, because we will once again become a wanted commodity, and you want to be top of the list.
Like I said, just my few cents
Cheers
DB
Airlines are obviously scaling down their employment. For my own amusement, I had a look through the 'majorish' airlines in the UK and found most application procedures closed until further notice, where you could not apply, even if you wanted to as the website was closed. Again a sign that we are in the toilet of the downturn.
However, if you do have the money, now is the time to start your training. If you qualify for your fATPL during the downturn, once all of the furloughed pilots are hired, you will be top of the list. Don't put off your training if you have the money just because there are no jobs at the present, be ready to be the first to jump on the band wagon when it recovers. I myself was one of those pilots who trained post 9/11. As many wannabe pilots decided to postpone their training, I chose to continue to follow the dream and am now a captain of a small but reputable little airliner and loving every minute of it.
I have a meeting with some A-Level students on the 21st on what it's like to be an airline pilot. One of the first things I am going to tell them is go to university first. Have a back up plan as the industry is so volitile you don't know what it might throw at you. However, if you have the money, get that training under your belt to be the first to take advantage of the opportunities when they arise.
I was flying with a first officer recently who is more than ready to take the reigns in the left seat. I asked him why he had not gone and got his ATPL already. He told me that months back he had been speaking to another captain and he had told him that there were people ahead of him in seniority and there was no rush. So instead of spending his hard earned cash on a valuble ATPL, he spent his money on a big screen TV and a holiday. As lovely as those things are, he is only now going to get his ATPL, and in three months when it arrives in the post, he won't be able to upgrade as due to the downturn in our industry, all the skippers positions will be filled. If he had chosen to do it when he had the money, regardless of his seniority, he would be captain already.
As harsh as it sounds, people thrive on others misfortune. If you have the money, now is the time to buy houses. If you have the money, now is the time to buy shares. If you have the money, now is the time to learn to fly, because we will once again become a wanted commodity, and you want to be top of the list.
Like I said, just my few cents
Cheers
DB
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*group hug* 
*make love*
Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear
Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear
Taxpayers' £37billion 'might not be enough' to stabilise banking system
Taxpayers' £37billion 'might not be enough' to stabilise banking system - Times Online
*make love*
Housing slump could be over next year, MPs hear
A drop in home loan rates by a further half point could turn the housing market around by next year, an economist says
Taxpayers' £37billion 'might not be enough' to stabilise banking system
The public money being injected into Britain's three weakest banks may not be enough to stabilise the banking system
