Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Guess what happens next:
Yesterdays jobless figures were truly awful. The percentage of the population without work hit its highest for some 13 years, while the nations dole queues reached their longest for 14 years. The actual number of employed Britons fell by a record 271,000 in the three months to June, as even more people left the workforce than claimed benefits.
The 1990/91 recession ended after just 2 quarters. Unemployment continued to rise for 6 more quarters AFTER the recession had ended. The unemployment peak is the killer for airlines.
I'd wait until the UK recession has actually ended (and France and Germany are only parts of a EuroZone deeply in recession) and then I'd wait before unemployment started falling before I even thought about looking at commercial flying training. We are talking several years at least.
WWW
Yesterdays jobless figures were truly awful. The percentage of the population without work hit its highest for some 13 years, while the nations dole queues reached their longest for 14 years. The actual number of employed Britons fell by a record 271,000 in the three months to June, as even more people left the workforce than claimed benefits.
The 1990/91 recession ended after just 2 quarters. Unemployment continued to rise for 6 more quarters AFTER the recession had ended. The unemployment peak is the killer for airlines.
I'd wait until the UK recession has actually ended (and France and Germany are only parts of a EuroZone deeply in recession) and then I'd wait before unemployment started falling before I even thought about looking at commercial flying training. We are talking several years at least.
WWW
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Well, you've really splashed out on the economic modelling if you bought yourself a Bloomberg terminal, www!
Valuations in the area in which I live are down 40%, and have not yet stopped falling.
Valuations in the area in which I live are down 40%, and have not yet stopped falling.
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as of today, been announced that France and Germany are no longer in recession,
Ryanair could increase their German bases, not in France though as they require union recognition but they could increase flight frequency to/from the French airports. A great day for european aviation.
Take my comments with a tablespoonful of salt
egnhflyer - you misunderstand my comments in brackets. Whilst I acknowledge that the German and French national economies have managed to post a positive quarterly gdp growth figure, this is not the case for the Eurozone as a whole which is still in recession at -0.1%.
I would also caution that the 0.3% growth was purchased at considerable cost to the tax payer. In both instances the governments were throwing cash around the economy and all spending - including government - counts towards GDP figures. There was a modest real improvement in Germany which was shrinking by 4% a quarter earlier this year. They benefitted from some restocking globally and the Chinese were buying materials and equipment for the massive infratsucture stimulus. The French figures were VERY much flattered by a blip in Airbus deliveries based on orders made before the recession. It doesn't take more than a dozen extra widebodies coming out of Toulouse for the French GDP figures to jump nicely...
WWW
ps I'm still saving for my Bloomberg Terminal
I would also caution that the 0.3% growth was purchased at considerable cost to the tax payer. In both instances the governments were throwing cash around the economy and all spending - including government - counts towards GDP figures. There was a modest real improvement in Germany which was shrinking by 4% a quarter earlier this year. They benefitted from some restocking globally and the Chinese were buying materials and equipment for the massive infratsucture stimulus. The French figures were VERY much flattered by a blip in Airbus deliveries based on orders made before the recession. It doesn't take more than a dozen extra widebodies coming out of Toulouse for the French GDP figures to jump nicely...
WWW
ps I'm still saving for my Bloomberg Terminal
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Government loan Airbus £340m
BBC NEWS | Business | Government to loan Airbus £340m 
Lets kick start this industry with some positive input!
Lets kick start this industry with some positive input!
I Have Control
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Indeed!
Good news for a change! Presumably the government will print the £340 million, send it to Airbus, and get repaid down the line in Euros. Sterling is on its way down, I fear.
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Thomas Cook ditches 2010 operating profit goal
LONDON, Aug 13 (Reuters) - Thomas Cook (TCG.L) compounded gloom among Europe's travel operators on Thursday by warning it would miss its 2010 operating profit goal as economic conditions continued to worsen,.......cont
Tui are seeing winter bookings down 19%..
WWW
WWW
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JB007 gave the heads up on whats comming with TUI/TCG a good few pages ago.... 
There's still no rush for wannabes ......
There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines...
There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines this winter...not just flight crew! For those of us on the inside of UK companies; it's starting now, unions are talking to management!
There will be a 'big' cull across most airlines this winter...not just flight crew! For those of us on the inside of UK companies; it's starting now, unions are talking to management!
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There's still no rush for wannabes ......
egnhflyer - So I presume you skipped the - ooh - 5,000 words or so I'd written earlier in this thread in repeated detail about how and why there is no rush for wannabes? Perhaps you just recently parachuted into this thread with your half a dozen posts history and thought we needed some editorial input from you and didn't bother to read the entire thread? Who knows.
Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..
WWW
Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..
WWW
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egnhflyer - So I presume you skipped the - ooh - 5,000 words or so I'd written earlier in this thread in repeated detail about how and why there is no rush for wannabes? Perhaps you just recently parachuted into this thread with your half a dozen posts history and thought we needed some editorial input from you and didn't bother to read the entire thread? Who knows.
Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..
Oh, and if you find my laymans languaged-cut out and keep, guides to economics to be mumbo jumbo then I fear for your ability to pass the Perf or Nav exams..
Thanks for the encouragement of the exam front i would really hate to be your first officer even though i would love to work for easyjet.
Anyhow no hard feelings
(ps. just passed fp & nav with 100% and although i know these are not representative of the atpl exams i'll take it as a positive sign
)gl
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Germany was the hardest hit country in europe by the global recession as they are the world's largest exporter of manufactured good's. The german & french econmies were not hit by the financial collapse anywhere near as much as the UK & the USA have been. Germany & France having a small amount of positive growth is very good news, I disagree with WWW that the german growth is down to tax payer spending, it isn't it's due to a growing demand for German made good's. It's easy to confuse the financial collapse with the global recession they are two different problems although related.
The best policy for the UK government is to print lot's of money and spend it on things like Airbus. That will get the econmy moving again. They still need to sort the banking sector out though.
Who knows what's around the corner there could still be something to come out of the closet yet. But I think its reasonable to say that the UK will start to grow within a year or two. Maybe a good time to start an integrated course will be in 12-18months time.
WWW reminds me of an American Republican Official, ignore other people's views and shout them down!
Feel free to shout...have you ever been on Fox news?
The best policy for the UK government is to print lot's of money and spend it on things like Airbus. That will get the econmy moving again. They still need to sort the banking sector out though.
Who knows what's around the corner there could still be something to come out of the closet yet. But I think its reasonable to say that the UK will start to grow within a year or two. Maybe a good time to start an integrated course will be in 12-18months time.
WWW reminds me of an American Republican Official, ignore other people's views and shout them down!
Feel free to shout...have you ever been on Fox news?
Whoops, thats not quite treading carefully enough I'm afraid.
WWW
WWW
I'm not shouting down anyones views.
Just don't get too excited by Germany putting on 0.3% when they lost over 4% in the first quarter. Take the two together and you've still got the sharpest recession in history - even though its now technically over.
Double dip anyone?
WWW
Just don't get too excited by Germany putting on 0.3% when they lost over 4% in the first quarter. Take the two together and you've still got the sharpest recession in history - even though its now technically over.
Double dip anyone?
WWW
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maybe your callsign WWW has some relevence here...truth is no one is sure yet if it's going to be a U, V, I___I, W or WWW
One thing's for sure we will all find out sooner or later
One thing's for sure we will all find out sooner or later
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Anyone who believes the spin from politicans anywhere in Europe at the moment is in for a big shock. If you have a job at the moment, keep it!, even if it is not an aviation job. Use your spare time to train the modular way, do not burden youself with a huge debt at the moment. I know the good airlines only take Intergrated students(according to the Myth and most major FTO's), but when you were not blessed with a rich Mummy or Daddy to finance your training you have to make some hard choices. Do you really want to be a pilot? If yes, then you must make a plan to make this a reality. After the "credit crunch", the banks will be very reluctant to give you finance, without some collateal. So do you mortgage you house? (If you have one), borrow £60000, take a year or so, spend it all, only to be told by the FTO, that all recruitment is on hold, and they will call you as soon as anything else comes up! Now this will most likely leave you with about six months before the first payment is due,(assuming that you had 24 months payment free) and thats when the sleepless nights start! Next thing you know, your on your knees before the bank manager telling him that the Devil will let you fly for him, if you can just raise another £25000 for the type rating course.
This may sound very negative, but it is reality, and these are the choices we are all faced with. If you are only 18 then you have plenty of time to make these choices, on the other hand if your 30 then... tick, tick, tick,tick....
Just one final thought, people often say renting a Cessna at your local club, just to try and stay current, is a waste of time. From my experience, every hour in the air is another lesson learned!
I wish you all the very best of Luck!!
This may sound very negative, but it is reality, and these are the choices we are all faced with. If you are only 18 then you have plenty of time to make these choices, on the other hand if your 30 then... tick, tick, tick,tick....
Just one final thought, people often say renting a Cessna at your local club, just to try and stay current, is a waste of time. From my experience, every hour in the air is another lesson learned!
I wish you all the very best of Luck!!