Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
With Tier 1's being sub 5% it would have been cheap to refund the lost deposits out of general taxation and be done with it. The rest was debt or debt instruments.
People in Iceland are still driving cars, living in houses, wearing clothes and buying food and all their banks went bust... But then the banks own the Government and the Government doesn't actually govern with the best interests of the population so its all pretty simple when you notice the Matrix.
WWW
People in Iceland are still driving cars, living in houses, wearing clothes and buying food and all their banks went bust... But then the banks own the Government and the Government doesn't actually govern with the best interests of the population so its all pretty simple when you notice the Matrix.
WWW
"I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply,"
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With Tier 1's being sub 5% it would have been cheap to refund the lost deposits out of general taxation and be done with it. The rest was debt or debt instruments.
will use anti-terrorist legislation to seize your assets held overseas.I'd love to have seen the goverments in London & Washington etc. ringfence the "real" parts of the banking system and let the casinos die by their own sword (allowing GS to convert to a Bank Holding Co. so it could tap the Fed for liquidity was particularly offensive) but that ship sailed last year.
Whose idea was it to get rid of the walls between the casinos and the retail banks, and in the City between the jobbers and the brokers? Those divisions were there for a good reason based on past market abuses. Naive ideologues like Friedman and Greenspan, and the soft headed pols who bought into their neoliberal cr@p have to carry the can.
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Baron Nathan Mayer de Rothschild WWW Here's one:
Woodrow Wilson
I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men."
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I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply
I am a most unhappy man. I have unwittingly ruined my country. A great industrial nation is controlled by its system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated. The growth of the nation, therefore, and all our activities are in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated Governments in the civilized world, no longer a Government by free opinion, no longer a Government by conviction and the vote of the majority, but Government by the opinion and duress of a small group of dominant men
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Britain lags behind in global race to economic recovery
Fears that Britain is emerging more slowly from recession than other economies were stoked yesterday with figures showing that UK factory output dropped last month. The figures came as similar data for the United States, China and France pointed to an expansion in manufacturing activity in those countries, while Germany’s factories were also highlighted as being in recovery mode.
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I agree... it should be illegal to borrow 100k to train to be a pilot.... it boarders on exploitation of naive young starry eyed wanabees that need protecting from themselves.
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Topslide, wouldn't a dearth of newly qualified pilots due to funding just cause a correction though? If there is a dire pilot shortage in years to come as people stop training then T&C's will be pushed higher and higher in an effort to attract the available qualified crew.
This increase in T&C's will make the career very attractive again and it will be worth "investing" to get a job. Part sponsored schemes may then reappear with banks/airlines willing to take a small risk. The risk I guess would be considered small as the chances or well paid employment will be high.
This increase in T&C's will make the career very attractive again and it will be worth "investing" to get a job. Part sponsored schemes may then reappear with banks/airlines willing to take a small risk. The risk I guess would be considered small as the chances or well paid employment will be high.
TopSlide6 - my view was the same as yours. That the collapse in housing equity release and the tightening of credit and lowering of confidence would all serve to restrict the numbers embarking on pilot training.
Its all very logical. Unfortunately I see no evidence to support the hypothesis.
The large FTO's are all pretty full. No small FTO's have yet gone bust. Groundschools ditto. The CAA stats show now significant dip in new license issues in the figures to date.
The postings on PPRuNe continue to demonstrate that there are a great number of Wannabes eagerly attending various selection days.
I don't know where the money keeps coming from but it does seem to keep coming.
As for supply and demand resulting in a future improvement to new pilots terms and conditions I'm afraid to say it hasn't happened before. The graph is a straight line over the last 20 years sloping from top left to bottom right. Time along the bottom, terms and conditions along the side. Full cadetships never returned after Sept 11th despite 2005/6/7 being years of massive demand for pilots.
Paying for type rating looks set to become the industry norm. Bear in mind the industry norm a decade ago was you stopped paying at your IR and the airlines started paying at the MCC point...
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Its all very logical. Unfortunately I see no evidence to support the hypothesis.
The large FTO's are all pretty full. No small FTO's have yet gone bust. Groundschools ditto. The CAA stats show now significant dip in new license issues in the figures to date.
The postings on PPRuNe continue to demonstrate that there are a great number of Wannabes eagerly attending various selection days.
I don't know where the money keeps coming from but it does seem to keep coming.
As for supply and demand resulting in a future improvement to new pilots terms and conditions I'm afraid to say it hasn't happened before. The graph is a straight line over the last 20 years sloping from top left to bottom right. Time along the bottom, terms and conditions along the side. Full cadetships never returned after Sept 11th despite 2005/6/7 being years of massive demand for pilots.
Paying for type rating looks set to become the industry norm. Bear in mind the industry norm a decade ago was you stopped paying at your IR and the airlines started paying at the MCC point...
WWW
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One factor that keeps getting overlooked regarding taking on inexperienced pilots is what happens when the accident/incident rate starts going up. There have already been some accidents that can be put down to lack of experience and the ability to pay to fly. Wait until we start getting some major, high profile ones when the media start getting interested, along with those who insure the airframes. Remember what happened to the rail network a few years ago? Things only changed as people started dying. Sadly that is the way things work these days.
I think the whole experience vs accident rate is an equation that doesn't reflect the facts.
This year CFIT has been overtaken as the number one cause of accidents by pilots doing a Spanair and forgetting to set take off configuration or a Turkish and just ignoring the primary flight instruments and crashing on short finals.
I can't recall a single airline disaster or serious incident where the lack of hours by the co-pilot was cited as a contributory factor in the last twenty years in Europe. The insurers seem very relaxed about it. Low experience Captains is a different fish kettle because sometimes the SOP's or the manuals don't cover the situation at hand. Experience is the only thing to fall back on then.
Hours don't mean what they used to. With the highly prescriptive SOP's and the electronic monitoring of most airlines fleets then the ability to just operate exactly by the book is enough. Not that that is easy in itself. Operate to the manual, obey every SOP and even with 250hrs you really can't go far wrong.
WWW
This year CFIT has been overtaken as the number one cause of accidents by pilots doing a Spanair and forgetting to set take off configuration or a Turkish and just ignoring the primary flight instruments and crashing on short finals.
I can't recall a single airline disaster or serious incident where the lack of hours by the co-pilot was cited as a contributory factor in the last twenty years in Europe. The insurers seem very relaxed about it. Low experience Captains is a different fish kettle because sometimes the SOP's or the manuals don't cover the situation at hand. Experience is the only thing to fall back on then.
Hours don't mean what they used to. With the highly prescriptive SOP's and the electronic monitoring of most airlines fleets then the ability to just operate exactly by the book is enough. Not that that is easy in itself. Operate to the manual, obey every SOP and even with 250hrs you really can't go far wrong.
WWW
I would disagree fundamentally with that statement WWW. SOPs are very prescriptive and the as long as everything works as it should then 250 hour cadets have a framework within which to operate. Even at this point most are still in the crew room when the aircraft is about to get airborne.
Its when things are out of the ordinary that 250 hour pilots struggle. I was one of those who flew very large shiny jets with only 200 hours in the log book, and looking back its scary how little idea I had about what was going on arround me.
What most 200 hour pilots, who get to fly jets, have is the ability to learn very quickly. Most go through an extensive selection procedure and it shows, they are smart and sharp.
The same cannot be said of people who pay for their type rating, some of these people are just dangerous and have no business being anywhere near a passenger aircraft.
I don't think that accident statistics will ever pick up a trend of inexperience leading to accidents. Mainly because accidents are, thankfully, very rare events. And in the big scheme of things there are very few very inexperienced pilots flying large passenger jets. I just wonder what would have happened to the A320 that ditched in the Hudson had the FO only had 200 hours.
Its when things are out of the ordinary that 250 hour pilots struggle. I was one of those who flew very large shiny jets with only 200 hours in the log book, and looking back its scary how little idea I had about what was going on arround me.
What most 200 hour pilots, who get to fly jets, have is the ability to learn very quickly. Most go through an extensive selection procedure and it shows, they are smart and sharp.
The same cannot be said of people who pay for their type rating, some of these people are just dangerous and have no business being anywhere near a passenger aircraft.
I don't think that accident statistics will ever pick up a trend of inexperience leading to accidents. Mainly because accidents are, thankfully, very rare events. And in the big scheme of things there are very few very inexperienced pilots flying large passenger jets. I just wonder what would have happened to the A320 that ditched in the Hudson had the FO only had 200 hours.
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I think the whole experience vs accident rate is an equation that doesn't reflect the facts.
Airlines would dearly love to be able to do away with the front end costs. Obviously they can't. They have been allowed to reduce those costs significantly though, by the introduction of low houred F/O's, pay to train, pay to fly, etc. In some cases the right hand seat has now become a revenue stream rather than a cost.
Insurers are relaxed because the advent of technology (Glass cockpit, FBW) has simplified the operational aspect to the point that one experienced pilot is risk acceptable from the claims standpoint. The regulator takes much the same view. Everyone is happy. Until that is the day comes that this is all dumped on the front page of the newspapers and on every 30 minute looping news broadcast around the world, when suddenly it becomes an issue that must be dealt with, rightly or wrongly.
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HSBC have halted all lending to trainee pilots. If the money isn't coming from them then where the hell is it coming from? One Post Only is correct, and I suspect that your description of events is almost exactly what will happen
As for WWW's comments about the big FTOs ... let's see if the big 5 isn't a big 2 or 3 in five years time. One has been exhibiting clear signs of distress since last year. Two more won't be getting much business from the UK any more except the FlyBE tagged cadets with sterling having fallen from €1.45 to €1.15 and plenty of FX downside still there. The finance issue will bite hard but its a lagging effect and FTO capacity will ultimately contract to reflect both this and a smaller UK airline industry. The number of starry eyed children posting on PPRUNE is related to the size of the polulation only and has no bearing on the number who will actually be able to train in the future.
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Hours don't mean what they used to. With the highly prescriptive SOP's and the electronic monitoring of most airlines fleets then the ability to just operate exactly by the book is enough. Not that that is easy in itself. Operate to the manual, obey every SOP and even with 250hrs you really can't go far wrong.
Sure, aircraft are not only better built, more logical, and operated to better SOPs, but the fundamental pillar of strong psychometric testing and selection prior to training has been eroded in the past few years of self-selection. That is what makes the difference between the 250hr who struggles when the Captain keels over and the one who takes it in their stride.
The accident rate has not gone up, thankfully, but you only need to look at situations such as the Conti Buffalo, NY accident to see danger.
I further agree with you though that it is little linked to hours per se; as we all know, European majors have operated with 250hr cadets since the 1950s, as too have the military forces worked safely with new trainees.
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Easyjet cutting flights and jobs
Still deflating.......
BBC NEWS | Business | Easyjet cutting flights and jobs
Budget airline Easyjet is planning to cut flights by up to 20% out of London's Luton airport.
The airline also said it would consult on a reduction of the number of flight crews at its bases in Belfast, Bristol, Newcastle and London Stansted.
The decision comes amid a row over landing charges at Luton. Easyjet said it would look relocate the flights to more "profitable bases" elsewhere.
The airline also plans to close its base at East Midlands airport.
The airline also said it would consult on a reduction of the number of flight crews at its bases in Belfast, Bristol, Newcastle and London Stansted.
The decision comes amid a row over landing charges at Luton. Easyjet said it would look relocate the flights to more "profitable bases" elsewhere.
The airline also plans to close its base at East Midlands airport.
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Budget Airline EasyJet To Slash Services
Budget airline easyJet is to close its East Midlands base and reduce services at Luton airport by 20%.
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Lufthansa exec says industry losses could top $9 billion
More Deflation....
Lufthansa exec says industry losses could top $9 billion | Reuters
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Global airlines' losses this year could exceed industry body IATA's estimate of $9 billion as no improvement across the sector is in sight so far, Deutsche Lufthansa's (LHAG.DE) management board member Stefan Lauer said.
"We cannot expect a miracle from one day to the next," he said to journalists late on Wednesday in remarks embargoed until Thursday.
IATA, whose 230 member airlines fly some 93 percent of international air traffic, had said on Monday that the world's airlines lost at least $6 billion in the first half of the year as higher oil and jet fuel prices added to costs..... cont...
"We cannot expect a miracle from one day to the next," he said to journalists late on Wednesday in remarks embargoed until Thursday.
IATA, whose 230 member airlines fly some 93 percent of international air traffic, had said on Monday that the world's airlines lost at least $6 billion in the first half of the year as higher oil and jet fuel prices added to costs..... cont...
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This data has been out for some time now, but reveals the depth of decline in Europe. Year-to-year percentage change on revenue:
Q1-09 / Q2-09
Air France-KLM -12.2% / -21%
British Airways -8.4% / -12%
Iberia -15.6% / -23%
Lufthansa Group -10.3% / -19%
SAS Group -8.5% / -23%
Cut routes, frequencies and smaller aircraft probably accounts for some of the revenue decline. Revenues continue to decline whilst fuel prices rise.
Regarding the LH article above, IATA had previously predicted a $4.7 billion global airline loss for 2009 back around May this year. In July they doubled the figure to $9 billion and they now say even this is optimistic and will update their forecast on September 15th. It seems traffic and yields continue to decline and we have yet to hit the bottom.
Q1-09 / Q2-09
Air France-KLM -12.2% / -21%
British Airways -8.4% / -12%
Iberia -15.6% / -23%
Lufthansa Group -10.3% / -19%
SAS Group -8.5% / -23%
Cut routes, frequencies and smaller aircraft probably accounts for some of the revenue decline. Revenues continue to decline whilst fuel prices rise.
Regarding the LH article above, IATA had previously predicted a $4.7 billion global airline loss for 2009 back around May this year. In July they doubled the figure to $9 billion and they now say even this is optimistic and will update their forecast on September 15th. It seems traffic and yields continue to decline and we have yet to hit the bottom.
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Lufthansa's Junk & SIA defer the delivery of 8 A380
Lufthansa's Junk
Lufthansa?s Debt Rating Lowered to Junk by Moody?s (Update2) - Bloomberg.com
SIA
Singapore Airlines, Airbus agree to delay 8 A380s | Global Industries | Autos & Transport | Reuters
Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Europe’s second-largest airline, had its debt rating cut to junk by Moody’s Investors Service, which cited declining profitability at its passenger and cargo units.
The long-term issuer ratings were lowered by one step to Ba1 from Baa3, Moody’s said in a statement today. About 2.1 billion euros ($3 billion) of debt is affected, it said.
The long-term issuer ratings were lowered by one step to Ba1 from Baa3, Moody’s said in a statement today. About 2.1 billion euros ($3 billion) of debt is affected, it said.
SIA
SINGAPORE, Sept 3 (Reuters) - Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) said on Thursday it had agreed with Airbus that the European plane maker will delay delivery of eight A380 aircraft.
Under the new schedule, deliveries to Singapore Airlines will take place between six months and 12 months later than originally planned.
Under the new schedule, deliveries to Singapore Airlines will take place between six months and 12 months later than originally planned.
Heli Port - yup, I'm now under 90 days consultation for Redundancy.
Being *somewhat* bearish about things means this is not completely unexpected. Its still a potentially huge kick in the nuts though.
WWW
Being *somewhat* bearish about things means this is not completely unexpected. Its still a potentially huge kick in the nuts though.
WWW