Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
I Have Control
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Right on, WWW!
WWW,
You are 100% correct. No-one in their right mind should lay down good money for pro flight training. Why?
I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.
This is not news. This is a majority opinion in nearly every relevant news publication.
Pilots, including experienced bods, are notorious for adopting ostrich strategies. Been guilty of it myself. Prospective pilots be warned. Find work elsewhere and save your money. On no account borrow to do this. It's a profession I love, and it is on its knees. I discouraged my son, and he's thanking me for it.
And WWW. Please don't bust a gut trying to contradict the "experts" that are masters of wishful thinking, particularly those who also have vested interests. They aren't worth a bean.
You are 100% correct. No-one in their right mind should lay down good money for pro flight training. Why?
I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.
This is not news. This is a majority opinion in nearly every relevant news publication.
Pilots, including experienced bods, are notorious for adopting ostrich strategies. Been guilty of it myself. Prospective pilots be warned. Find work elsewhere and save your money. On no account borrow to do this. It's a profession I love, and it is on its knees. I discouraged my son, and he's thanking me for it.
And WWW. Please don't bust a gut trying to contradict the "experts" that are masters of wishful thinking, particularly those who also have vested interests. They aren't worth a bean.
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Bealzebub - welcome back. We haven't had a chat since you got all shirty about planned bankruptcy amongst wannabes wish to train on credit and then dispose of their debts.
I knew someone who topped themselves in the early 1990's recession because he ended up losing his house and putting his wife and children in a council house. He couldn't get a flying job and the banks bankrupted him.
Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.
I have no other agenda than to say what I see is happening in the market. If anybody pays any heed to those comments, that is up to them. If you feel your role is to act as a counterbalance to the promises and claims of the pilot training industry, then that is fine. It is of course a counterbalance and not a moderation or arbitration. You are rather doing a David Ike I think, and shooting yourself in the foot in the process. Nevertheless if you feel you once were Jesus, and you have a Uri Geller insight into the future that others don't possess, who am I to argue while you bleed into your new swimming pool. It is not a case of shutting you up. If you read my other posts you will see that I argue for much of what you do. On the other hand you cannot complain that people disrespect the role of the moderator by throwing rotten fruit at it, when the role is used like a soapbox at speakers corner?
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I've had my fair few encounters with WWW, particularly on the planned bankruptcy matter, but I completely disagree that moderating on this forum is anything other than fair.
This is the only forum (online or otherwise) of which I am aware that has such diversity of opinion and open analysis of the situation.
For someone about to spend £80k on a licence, this information is of paramount importance.
Yes, FIs and schools around the UK dismiss it as doom-mongering, but look where we are today, and how correct those predictions have proven to be.
Scroggs and WWW nurtured this place as a forum of debate an impartial information - where else is that the case?
Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"
This is the only forum (online or otherwise) of which I am aware that has such diversity of opinion and open analysis of the situation.
For someone about to spend £80k on a licence, this information is of paramount importance.
Yes, FIs and schools around the UK dismiss it as doom-mongering, but look where we are today, and how correct those predictions have proven to be.
Scroggs and WWW nurtured this place as a forum of debate an impartial information - where else is that the case?
Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"
Last edited by Re-Heat; 29th Jun 2009 at 17:22.
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Perhaps this thread (with this diversion) has run its course, and we should now start a new one entitled - "Have we reached the bottom?"
bealzebub - too right. I know a good man who orphaned his children and widowed his wife because of the banks bankrupting him. Perhaps it does colour my laissez faire attitude to using planned bankruptcy. Those bastards offered the loan, assessed the risk, ventured the money for profit and knew - ultimately - that if they got it wrong big enough that they would be rescued.
Money as debt.
Money as debt.
Money as debt.
Google it people.
I haven't been given a pedestal. I've built a pulpit from scratch from 1998. Do you think Wannabes was automatically going to be one of the biggest busiest parts of PPRuNe? On most other sites the ever repeating dull nature of the the Wannabe forum exists as some echo chamber inhabited by 6 teenagers all trying to get excited by the Flyer roadshow and agonising whether to go to Oxford or Jerez.
David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet? - so please don't bleat on my behalf that that people throw rotten fruit at me.
I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position. Why would I - I spend a considerable amount of time working out how to generate animated discussion - when my vulantary role is to help provide a communication channel which didn't used to exist. IF I was a despot, tyrant I'd just delete your criticism at the wave of a mouse and nobody would be any the wiser. Its that easy. With three clicks and two button presses you would be banned and your last ten posts deleted.
Accusations of abuse of power are therefore hard to take seriously. Call me a pillock, say why, and I don't delete it. The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned.
I think 3 airlines will go bust this winter. I note Jerez has just knocked £5,000 of their course price...
WWW
ps For a change the tennis really is good..
Money as debt.
Money as debt.
Money as debt.
Google it people.
Far from trying to shut you up, you have been given a pedestal from which to preach and you use it to full effect. Nothing wrong with been a campaigner for whatever cause you choose, or for being completely immoderate. However it is a contradiction to declare yourself immoderate and then hang the badge of moderator from your name. Your opinions, observations and predictions are no more or less valid than mine or anybody elses generally speaking, however this pedestal provides you with a pulpit that you truly believe gives you a greater stature than your comments would ordinarily deserve.
I haven't been given a pedestal. I've built a pulpit from scratch from 1998. Do you think Wannabes was automatically going to be one of the biggest busiest parts of PPRuNe? On most other sites the ever repeating dull nature of the the Wannabe forum exists as some echo chamber inhabited by 6 teenagers all trying to get excited by the Flyer roadshow and agonising whether to go to Oxford or Jerez.
David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet? - so please don't bleat on my behalf that that people throw rotten fruit at me.
I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position. Why would I - I spend a considerable amount of time working out how to generate animated discussion - when my vulantary role is to help provide a communication channel which didn't used to exist. IF I was a despot, tyrant I'd just delete your criticism at the wave of a mouse and nobody would be any the wiser. Its that easy. With three clicks and two button presses you would be banned and your last ten posts deleted.
Accusations of abuse of power are therefore hard to take seriously. Call me a pillock, say why, and I don't delete it. The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned.
I think 3 airlines will go bust this winter. I note Jerez has just knocked £5,000 of their course price...
WWW
ps For a change the tennis really is good..
Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!
WWW
WWW
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Well I suppose this allusion to megalomania is something of an act. I suppose I should be grateful that you haven't deleted my posts or banned me like the previous poster!
Earned from what? What is it you have earned that makes your opinion any more valid than anybody else who has either been a flying instructor or an airline pilot or both? There are plenty of vociferous posters on these forums and a spectrum of opinions. It is rare to see a moderator dominate a thread with their own partisan opinion. Even rarer to see one who threatens or actually bans a poster for taking a contrary viewpoint or position. Despite your protestation three posts above you then did that in the subsequent post.
Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and look at the wider picture rather than be too blinkered or overtly focused on only what you want to see. In fact isn't that the criticism you make of many of the posters on here?
The power my postings have because I am a Moderator is slim. But earned. But earned.
Perhaps it would be better to take a step back and look at the wider picture rather than be too blinkered or overtly focused on only what you want to see. In fact isn't that the criticism you make of many of the posters on here?
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WWW
David Ike, Uri Geller, Jesus; all these are utter losers whom I wouldn't piss on if fire - controversial enough yet?
. Up till now I was a keen follower of this thread and I enjoyed your insightful posts and agreed with much of what you said. But why the need for such comments? Have a rant by all means but comments like this just make you look like a prick.
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I believe there is no good future in aviation. The industry has peaked and is in rapid decline. As is the car industry, the property market, the investment banking business, and many many others. And that is because our industrial world is in a dramatic era of slowdown. Which is not about to reverse itself. Probably never.
First, nobody can predict what will be the fuel price if the recession stop. It was at 147$ one year ago.
Second we can speculate on the fuel reserve, but who can say we will have as much fuel as we want for the next 50 years?
I don' t think that good times are coming for airline pilots.
Better to be wise with your money spending and debts.
All what I hope is that I am wrong.
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Censoring
I have never deleted, supressed or punished people arguing the opposite of my position.
Many forget that internet forum are the worst possible place to get a balanced view on life. Any who post here (self included), should be met with a degree of cynicism. This thread has been abused and should be looked at by the pprune hierarchy for what it is. Of course, they own the thread and will do whatever they wish. Finally, most of us aspire to 'earn' things to better ourselves. Earning one's position as a mod on pprune seems to me to be a sad, very sad, claim to fame. Then again, I've probably been sad enough to waste 10 minutes of my life typing this post which has a high risk of being deleted.
Adieu.
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House price recovery edges ahead with 0.9% rise
House prices rose by 0.9 per cent in June, the Nationwide Building Society said today, fuelling hopes the property market is beginning to stabilise.
The average house price in June stood at £156,442, compared with £154,016 in the previous month.
While the monthly rise of 0.9 per cent is below the 1.3 per cent increase in prices for May, the measure of growth over three months revealed the first rise since December 2007.
The average house price in June stood at £156,442, compared with £154,016 in the previous month.
While the monthly rise of 0.9 per cent is below the 1.3 per cent increase in prices for May, the measure of growth over three months revealed the first rise since December 2007.
www may have predicted the house price crash but i'm predicting a house price boom starting now
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Pluck this out of your bottom as we're being all frivolous - you're banned!
WWW
WWW
Out of interest which 3 do you think will go then??? I'm assuming you've got an idea to have come up with that figure.....
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On the 9th of November 2008 WWW said:
On the 29th of June 2009 WWW said:
Interesting.
In only a matter of months WWW has revised his own supremely confident economic predictions by about 75%.
This forecasting lark might not be as easy as it looks...
I promise Wannabes on pain of eating my Kangaroo skin hat with salt and pepper that in 2009 several significant EU airlines will go bust. By several I mean >10 and by significant I mean having more than >30 jets.
I think 3 airlines will go bust this winter
In only a matter of months WWW has revised his own supremely confident economic predictions by about 75%.
This forecasting lark might not be as easy as it looks...
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WWW,
I sincerely hope you put all your psychic powers to good use and short sold on banking shares! A man of your talent should be wheeling dealing and not typing typing...
Agreed with above... Your immoderate moderating is a bit sad...
Sincerely hope that doesn't get me banned for purely sharing an opinion...
I sincerely hope you put all your psychic powers to good use and short sold on banking shares! A man of your talent should be wheeling dealing and not typing typing...
Agreed with above... Your immoderate moderating is a bit sad...
Sincerely hope that doesn't get me banned for purely sharing an opinion...
stilljustanothernumber
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WWW, you make a convincing argument and your advice to those considering starting training is sound. But I can't understand why you want to undermine your argument by banning anyone who may be a bit cheeky
I'm sorry people feel the way they do. Yes you may have dreams and aspirations of one day becoming an airline pilot. Hell, pay your money, do the courses, get the ticks in the boxes, stay current whilst you work elsewhere, but 5 years down the line, do not look back and regret it. You do it because you want to. You do it because your partners/parents/wives and children all backed your decision.
Just take a step backwards and look at the big picture. Common sense says it will be difficult for the 'foreseeable future' and even then, it's not going to be the same as it was.
I trained to fly helicopters with a dream to fly commercially years ago. I and many others took our time. Bit by bit, and when there was suddenly a hiring boom in the North Sea, we grabbed ourselves an IR (40k+ in some cases) and were lucky enough to get jobs. Others followed closely behind us and ended up with the same qualifications, all paid for by borrowing money and guess what? That boom finished. That was 3 years ago. Look where we are now. The companies are hurting. Money for leasing in aircraft, to replace the old, isn't easy to come by anymore. Swings/roundabouts.
WWW has made some absolutely spot on observations over the last couple of years and I totally agree with everything he says. maybe because we see it from the other side to the wannabes? I don't know. I get people ring me regularly asking if I know of any offshore jobs. I tell them all the same thing. Nope! Onshore helicopters is even worse. Just ask any onshore helicopter pilot about the market right now.
You may not like what WWW says, but hell, go to another forum and hear what you want to hear and good luck. As I said, go get those qualifications because at the end of the day, it's what you want to do. Just don't say you never knew about the harsh realities of life in aviation during boom and bust.
Just take a step backwards and look at the big picture. Common sense says it will be difficult for the 'foreseeable future' and even then, it's not going to be the same as it was.
I trained to fly helicopters with a dream to fly commercially years ago. I and many others took our time. Bit by bit, and when there was suddenly a hiring boom in the North Sea, we grabbed ourselves an IR (40k+ in some cases) and were lucky enough to get jobs. Others followed closely behind us and ended up with the same qualifications, all paid for by borrowing money and guess what? That boom finished. That was 3 years ago. Look where we are now. The companies are hurting. Money for leasing in aircraft, to replace the old, isn't easy to come by anymore. Swings/roundabouts.
WWW has made some absolutely spot on observations over the last couple of years and I totally agree with everything he says. maybe because we see it from the other side to the wannabes? I don't know. I get people ring me regularly asking if I know of any offshore jobs. I tell them all the same thing. Nope! Onshore helicopters is even worse. Just ask any onshore helicopter pilot about the market right now.
You may not like what WWW says, but hell, go to another forum and hear what you want to hear and good luck. As I said, go get those qualifications because at the end of the day, it's what you want to do. Just don't say you never knew about the harsh realities of life in aviation during boom and bust.
It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.
It was 3 UK airlines that I was referring to - my previous forecast was for the EU area.
I'd listen to helimutt - he sounds as if he knows what he is talking about.
dublin_eire - yep, thanks, I was plenty bearish on bank stocks before the collapse.
I think any talk of house price crashes being cancelled sits uncomfortably with the news today:
Video: UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years - Times Online
The UK economy shrank by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than 50 years and far worse than expected, according to official figures today.
Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, between January and March, the economy contracted by its fastest pace since 1958. The ONS revised down its initial estimate, showing a contraction of 1.9 per cent.
Analysts had predicted that the revised numbers would show a 2.1 per cent fall in GDP.
Today's shock data is in part due to a change in methodology in the way that the ONS calculates construction and services output, but will do nothing to boost Alistair Darling's hopes of a recovery by the end of the year.
WWW
It was 3 UK airlines that I was referring to - my previous forecast was for the EU area.
I'd listen to helimutt - he sounds as if he knows what he is talking about.
dublin_eire - yep, thanks, I was plenty bearish on bank stocks before the collapse.
I think any talk of house price crashes being cancelled sits uncomfortably with the news today:
Video: UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years - Times Online
UK economy shrinks at fastest rate for 50 years
The UK economy shrank by 2.4 per cent in the first quarter at the fastest rate in more than 50 years and far worse than expected, according to official figures today.
Revised figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that, between January and March, the economy contracted by its fastest pace since 1958. The ONS revised down its initial estimate, showing a contraction of 1.9 per cent.
Analysts had predicted that the revised numbers would show a 2.1 per cent fall in GDP.
Today's shock data is in part due to a change in methodology in the way that the ONS calculates construction and services output, but will do nothing to boost Alistair Darling's hopes of a recovery by the end of the year.
WWW
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It was a frivolous ban that expired at midnight like Cinderellas carriage. Spare me the indignant rages.
clear prop!!! - you're consistent, I will give you that.
WWW
WWW
