Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Scourge of Bad Airline Management!
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Global Nomad
Age: 55
Posts: 1,093
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Maybe we can drink our way out of recession
Re the election. If I were Mr Cameron, I would be voting Labour. I bet he can't relish the job ahead of him were he to win....
TA
I think all contributors here are able to attack one anothers arguments without any hint of attacking the man. The cut and thrust of a good debate may be cutting without either sides falling out about it.
Regarding the GB acquisition by EZY and they EZY figures. Fair enough to include them as EZY expansion. But you then have to say that GB Airways went bust in March '07. Either one airline expanded and one went under, or, one bought the other. But not both.
George: I don't believe the headlines. They've been totally unrealistically upbeat for at least two years and continue to be so.
The party is over, everyone has a shrieking hangover and that idiot Brown is offering hair-of-the-dog as a cure and thinks he's clever for doing so. History will be most unkind to the Blair/Brown era. All Labour administration ultimately end in a currency crisis. Socialists always end up running out of other peoples money to spend. Nothing really changes.
WWW
Regarding the GB acquisition by EZY and they EZY figures. Fair enough to include them as EZY expansion. But you then have to say that GB Airways went bust in March '07. Either one airline expanded and one went under, or, one bought the other. But not both.
George: I don't believe the headlines. They've been totally unrealistically upbeat for at least two years and continue to be so.
The party is over, everyone has a shrieking hangover and that idiot Brown is offering hair-of-the-dog as a cure and thinks he's clever for doing so. History will be most unkind to the Blair/Brown era. All Labour administration ultimately end in a currency crisis. Socialists always end up running out of other peoples money to spend. Nothing really changes.
WWW
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: West Sussex, UK
Posts: 1,546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Is this the worst pilot market in decades? I think the cycle is shorter than that, WWW will remember.
5 UK airlines?!? Interestingly, how many will have a major German % share...??
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 355
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW...
Now, I don't for one second doubt what you say and times are harder for EZY staff. Indeed this was borne out by a couple of your collegues I had a long chat with the other day.
What I don't understand is the following which, are YoY figures...
Honestly, this is not my usual dig WWW, but, as you are nearer to the EZY coal face than I am, I would genuinley like to know what is going on here, which does seem to be against all odds!
Have EZY just become more efficient?
And again,...this is not an argumentative post, but a genuine question!
I'm very very pleased that EZY's load factor is inching up but that might be just a tad related to the capacity reductions made for the winter by parking aircraft up and offering acres of unpaid leave to its staff.
What I don't understand is the following which, are YoY figures...
(MarketWatch) -- Low cost airline easyJet (UK
ZJ:
287.50, +5.00, +1.8%) said Wednesday that it carried 7.3% more passengers in December compared to a year earlier. The airline said passenger numbers rose to 3.1 million, from 2.9 million. Load factor, a measure of passengers against available seats, improved 3.3 percentage points to 82.3% from 78.9%
ZJ:287.50, +5.00, +1.8%) said Wednesday that it carried 7.3% more passengers in December compared to a year earlier. The airline said passenger numbers rose to 3.1 million, from 2.9 million. Load factor, a measure of passengers against available seats, improved 3.3 percentage points to 82.3% from 78.9%
Have EZY just become more efficient?
And again,...this is not an argumentative post, but a genuine question!
From Times Online
January 7, 2009
US jobless to hit highest level in 60 years
Christine Seib, New York
America's private employers cut more than half a million workers in December alone, raising fears that Government figures out on Friday will show the most savage job cuts in almost 60 years.
This is the end of a super cycle. This is not a mid-cycle downturn. This is not a regular recession. This is a Depression event which the authorities are throwing the kitchen sink against. It may or may not work. I think not.
After that my job is gone along with thousands of others. A good pilot is compelled to evaluate the situation based on what he has learned. That's a direct, and cheezy, quote from TopGun but it is true.
Give me a call, I'll fly with you,
WWW
ps in a 152 probably..
January 7, 2009
US jobless to hit highest level in 60 years
Christine Seib, New York
America's private employers cut more than half a million workers in December alone, raising fears that Government figures out on Friday will show the most savage job cuts in almost 60 years.
This is the end of a super cycle. This is not a mid-cycle downturn. This is not a regular recession. This is a Depression event which the authorities are throwing the kitchen sink against. It may or may not work. I think not.
After that my job is gone along with thousands of others. A good pilot is compelled to evaluate the situation based on what he has learned. That's a direct, and cheezy, quote from TopGun but it is true.
Give me a call, I'll fly with you,
WWW
ps in a 152 probably..
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: Oop North
Posts: 25
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
good discussion
There is much good discussion going on here and I am enjoying the debate.
I agree with all the observations being made but have a differing view on the conclusions.
Pull it back up to a higher level - the private sector is stuffed, unless it is cash rich and eyeing up its weaker competitors to take advantage of what is for them, and will continue to become, a great merger/acquisition opportunity.
Therefore, to revert to my previous observation it is therefore only a revised fiscal strategy, be it through measures to encourage consumer spending through confidence or public spending, that the economy can then be re-ignited. (NOTE I am not advocating which measure(s))
However one only has to look back to 2Q last year when the inter-bank lending rate went vertical in comparison to the BOE rate that we should have forseen the financial catastrophe awaiting to happen. Banks had little or no dosh to meet their own creditors never mind lend any surpluses to one another; Northern Rock wasn't even the tip of the iceberg. Currently we the consumer need to ignore the current BOE base rate as an indicator. You need only look at actual borrowing rates being offered, be it mortgages, credit cards or personal loans, to realise how little the institutions want your business or the price you will pay for accepting their current conditions.
Never before has there been a need time for the men in long trousers to stand up and be counted and earn their salary. Reducing VAT by 2.5% was frankly an insult.
Not wishing to drag this into a political argument I do wander how many times G Brown has woken up to his famous last words "we have eradicated boom and bust" and I lay all the blame on his shoulders. After all he was the man in number 11, with the hand on the tiller, before moving up the street.
So back to flying. Ultimately aviation travel, for Joe public, is a discretionary spend activity. When we have money and feel good about our future security, we spend a little more in the current period, be it foreign holidays or weekend breaks. Restoring the confidence of the general population and regulating our financial sector is what is needed. Sounds too easy to be true, but that’s what is basically needed and NOT flogging off our golden foreign currency reserves at bargain basement prices as GB has previously done. Now our greatest challenge is the pitiful value of sterling which makes the 2 weeks in the med look poor value. Butlins anyone?
I agree when with TA assertion that Cameron should vote NL - does he really want the job
But someone needs to step up to the challenge and the sooner we see change the better.
Keep you chin up wannabees (and assuring you the rose tints are not on)
I agree with all the observations being made but have a differing view on the conclusions.
Pull it back up to a higher level - the private sector is stuffed, unless it is cash rich and eyeing up its weaker competitors to take advantage of what is for them, and will continue to become, a great merger/acquisition opportunity.
Therefore, to revert to my previous observation it is therefore only a revised fiscal strategy, be it through measures to encourage consumer spending through confidence or public spending, that the economy can then be re-ignited. (NOTE I am not advocating which measure(s))
However one only has to look back to 2Q last year when the inter-bank lending rate went vertical in comparison to the BOE rate that we should have forseen the financial catastrophe awaiting to happen. Banks had little or no dosh to meet their own creditors never mind lend any surpluses to one another; Northern Rock wasn't even the tip of the iceberg. Currently we the consumer need to ignore the current BOE base rate as an indicator. You need only look at actual borrowing rates being offered, be it mortgages, credit cards or personal loans, to realise how little the institutions want your business or the price you will pay for accepting their current conditions.
Never before has there been a need time for the men in long trousers to stand up and be counted and earn their salary. Reducing VAT by 2.5% was frankly an insult.
Not wishing to drag this into a political argument I do wander how many times G Brown has woken up to his famous last words "we have eradicated boom and bust" and I lay all the blame on his shoulders. After all he was the man in number 11, with the hand on the tiller, before moving up the street.
So back to flying. Ultimately aviation travel, for Joe public, is a discretionary spend activity. When we have money and feel good about our future security, we spend a little more in the current period, be it foreign holidays or weekend breaks. Restoring the confidence of the general population and regulating our financial sector is what is needed. Sounds too easy to be true, but that’s what is basically needed and NOT flogging off our golden foreign currency reserves at bargain basement prices as GB has previously done. Now our greatest challenge is the pitiful value of sterling which makes the 2 weeks in the med look poor value. Butlins anyone?
I agree when with TA assertion that Cameron should vote NL - does he really want the job
But someone needs to step up to the challenge and the sooner we see change the better.
Keep you chin up wannabees (and assuring you the rose tints are not on
)
Last edited by George Zipper; 8th Jan 2009 at 03:11. Reason: the usual finger trouble
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: UK
Posts: 433
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Interest rate down 50 points to 1.5% as of this morning. Lowest in 300 years.
Bank of England cuts interest rates to lowest in more than 300 years - Telegraph
Bank of England cuts interest rates to lowest in more than 300 years - Telegraph
Forget everything.
Just look at this graph and think of this singular fact and its implications:
This is from the BoE website. In 2007 people took around £13,000,000,000 out of their houses by increasing their mortgage liability in exchange for cash.
Some will have spent it on buying another house (ouch). Some will have used the money to pay off other debts at higher interest rates (good). Most will have spent it on an X5, a hot tub, two holidays and a villa in Spain (living the dream).
ALL THAT MONEY - ALL OF IT - will not be spent in 2009. Alone. Without redundancy or anything else is enough to cause the failure of several airlines amidst a major recession. In the UK the whole economy is 60% consumer led. Not making, not servicing, not transporting, not mining, not anything other than consuming.
Consumer spending, ignoring ALL other issues, will be around £13,000,000,000 down in 2009 compared to 2007. That's a fact. The Government may be able to offset this a little by taxing the future. But not enough to make a big difference.
WWW
Just look at this graph and think of this singular fact and its implications:
This is from the BoE website. In 2007 people took around £13,000,000,000 out of their houses by increasing their mortgage liability in exchange for cash.
Some will have spent it on buying another house (ouch). Some will have used the money to pay off other debts at higher interest rates (good). Most will have spent it on an X5, a hot tub, two holidays and a villa in Spain (living the dream).
ALL THAT MONEY - ALL OF IT - will not be spent in 2009. Alone. Without redundancy or anything else is enough to cause the failure of several airlines amidst a major recession. In the UK the whole economy is 60% consumer led. Not making, not servicing, not transporting, not mining, not anything other than consuming.
Consumer spending, ignoring ALL other issues, will be around £13,000,000,000 down in 2009 compared to 2007. That's a fact. The Government may be able to offset this a little by taxing the future. But not enough to make a big difference.
WWW
Join Date: May 2008
Location: On the run
Posts: 8
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just when the heck has New Labour been socialist? Its nothing but conservatism under a different name. No one here can actually believe that New Labour is socialist, can they?
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Just a bit lower than the point where the falling angel meets the rising ape
Posts: 213
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It's a funny old world....
I think the party in government at any given time takes on a kind of slightly right of centre, Daily Mail-esque sheen after a while, perhaps to fall in line with a fundamentally similar minded population?
This time round it's certainly led to some interesting side effects. In the public sector lots of talk of more local freedom to act (socialism?), while at the same time legislation to centralise decision making (communism?), while at the same time seemingly opening up areas of public service to eventual privatisation (Conservative, erm, -ism?)
What's all that about!?
I wonder if, in the current crisis, whether GB et al, are just reverting to a type ingrained in them in the 70's while they were young. Could the railways be next?....... Whattabout AEROFLOT GB!!
(i'll get my coat..
)
This time round it's certainly led to some interesting side effects. In the public sector lots of talk of more local freedom to act (socialism?), while at the same time legislation to centralise decision making (communism?), while at the same time seemingly opening up areas of public service to eventual privatisation (Conservative, erm, -ism?)
What's all that about!?
I wonder if, in the current crisis, whether GB et al, are just reverting to a type ingrained in them in the 70's while they were young. Could the railways be next?....... Whattabout AEROFLOT GB!!
(i'll get my coat..
)
Join Date: May 2003
Location: uk
Posts: 713
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
You can argue the toss all you like about load factors.
The truth is much simpler.
I have never been on Sqeezyjet or Tryonair. This time last year I had three trips booked and paid for at this time. One long haul to RSW, and two short hauls all to be done by the end of March.
This year nothing - it is not that I cannot afford it, the base rate cuts put money in my pocket overall, it is just that I am not inclined to do any travel.
This is common amongst the people I mix with.
The truth is much simpler.
I have never been on Sqeezyjet or Tryonair. This time last year I had three trips booked and paid for at this time. One long haul to RSW, and two short hauls all to be done by the end of March.
This year nothing - it is not that I cannot afford it, the base rate cuts put money in my pocket overall, it is just that I am not inclined to do any travel.
This is common amongst the people I mix with.
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Madrid
Posts: 37
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I think that it is relevant to deduct the increase in passengers flown through the acquisition of GB if we want to look at the industry as a whole because in this case Easyjet has increased its passenger numbers by taking them away from another airline, so no new demand or pilot jobs have been created.
Topslide6,
The falling pound does not necessarily mean that all UK airlines are stuffed. It is difficult for charter airlines but with scheduled carriers the shortfall in UK passengers could well be balanced by continental passengers visiting the UK for a cheap break.
The falling pound does not necessarily mean that all UK airlines are stuffed. It is difficult for charter airlines but with scheduled carriers the shortfall in UK passengers could well be balanced by continental passengers visiting the UK for a cheap break.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Warrington, UK
Posts: 113
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Maybe things will get a lot better if Gordon Brown cuts VAT again and bailout companies!
The falling value of the pound makes people thinks twice before they spend it. Nobody knows what will happen near future. People read hyped-up news and are scared...... job losses, uncertain future, etc.
n.dave
The falling value of the pound makes people thinks twice before they spend it. Nobody knows what will happen near future. People read hyped-up news and are scared...... job losses, uncertain future, etc.
n.dave
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Betwixt and between
Posts: 666
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I doubt the Euro will stay strong for long. I think it has been the other place to take one's money to in a world of uncertain USD and GBP. Once the snags in the respective economies have been more fully quantified EUR will fall compared to GBP and GBP will establish a more realistic position compared to USD.
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Betwixt and between
Posts: 666
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I don't think we need to reach the bottom for the change, merely that the current situation is better understood. The reason for GBP's decline and EUR's rise is really about doing something, anything with one's money rather than just sitting on it as it devalues. As the situation in Europe is now looking just as desperate as UK and USA then we can expect the respective currencies to realign sooner than later.
Join Date: May 1999
Location: Bristol, England
Age: 65
Posts: 1,805
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"Interests rates at 1.5% and only likely do go down = weakened Sterling = stronger Euro"
Oops! Wrong way. Pound regains ground against the Euro - BBC ..and still rising. Looks like Sciolistes is right.
Oops! Wrong way. Pound regains ground against the Euro - BBC ..and still rising. Looks like Sciolistes is right.
Once the rioting becomes widespread you'll find the ECB finds itself under unbearable pressure to crash the Euro. The French have already dusted off the specific legal mechanism needed to force the ECBs hand.
A strong currency is a wonderful vanity but if Airbus can't make an aeroplane for export or VW make a car for export then practicality trumps vanity pretty quickly. The big question is wether this unprecedented experiment in currency union is able to survive the coming storm. 50:50 I reckon.
One thing is for sure; we won't see the EU take the strong and decisive moves that the Obama administration will be able to enact. Once again the US will show how its economy really is the most powerful one in the world by a very long chalk.
WWW
Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s - Telegraph
Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s
Dire day for Europe as Spain's jobless blasts through 3m and German industry goes into "free-fall"
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 9:10AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain's unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe's economy since the Second World War...
A strong currency is a wonderful vanity but if Airbus can't make an aeroplane for export or VW make a car for export then practicality trumps vanity pretty quickly. The big question is wether this unprecedented experiment in currency union is able to survive the coming storm. 50:50 I reckon.
One thing is for sure; we won't see the EU take the strong and decisive moves that the Obama administration will be able to enact. Once again the US will show how its economy really is the most powerful one in the world by a very long chalk.
WWW
Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s - Telegraph
Europe's economy contracts at rates not seen since 1930s
Dire day for Europe as Spain's jobless blasts through 3m and German industry goes into "free-fall"
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 9:10AM GMT 09 Jan 2009
German exports and industrial orders have both plunged at the steepest rate since modern records began and Spain's unemployment has surged above three million, capping one of the most disastrous days for Europe's economy since the Second World War...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 566
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW,
Some prat at the times disagrees with you about the strength of the US economy. A bit jingoistic methinks! I wonder if his last trip to the States really was in the 70s?
Rusty superpower in need of careful driver | Matthew Parris - Times Online
It will be interesting to see if Reagan's Supply Side boom can be duplicated with Obama's Demand Side economics. I'd hate to be the taxpayers getting the bill, but if it works at least they should have money to pay it. They sure won't be able to pay bills if something doesn't change quick.
Some prat at the times disagrees with you about the strength of the US economy. A bit jingoistic methinks! I wonder if his last trip to the States really was in the 70s?
Rusty superpower in need of careful driver | Matthew Parris - Times Online
It will be interesting to see if Reagan's Supply Side boom can be duplicated with Obama's Demand Side economics. I'd hate to be the taxpayers getting the bill, but if it works at least they should have money to pay it. They sure won't be able to pay bills if something doesn't change quick.