Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Well, just like me going modular is the best way to do it nowadays and I'm glad I have! 4/5yrs to play with is good, just keep current with the flying! ... With much less/minimal debt, it means that the salary can be spent on other things rather that paying back big loans.
Don't aim for BA after graduation unless your Integrated or have something like 1500hrs experience (I think on jet).
Found some other positive news from the other side of the world:
BBC NEWS | Business | Singapore's economy bounces back
Don't aim for BA after graduation unless your Integrated or have something like 1500hrs experience (I think on jet).
Found some other positive news from the other side of the world:
BBC NEWS | Business | Singapore's economy bounces back
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FT.com - Cathay Pacific
Published: July 14 2009 09:01 | Last updated: July 14 2009 09:26
Eat my shoots. A month ago Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific, swatted away concerns over a rights issue by telling analysts that things had stopped getting worse. Traffic figures for June, released on Monday, tell a different story. Passenger numbers fell the most, year-on-year, since the peak of Sars. Even with big capacity reductions, load factors weakened further. Don’t even ask about premium, about two-fifths of total revenues.
Mr Tyler cannot be blamed for misreading the outlook, or for trusting faulty forecasting tools. Even so, it is time to ask the awkward questions again. Does Cathay need a recapitalisation? And could its shareholders be relied upon to back it? Swire Pacific, the largest holder with 40 per cent and manager of the airline, would presumably deliver the goods. But Air China, holder of 17 per cent, is living hand to mouth. Citic Pacific, with another 17 per cent, is still shaking off a record annual loss as it refocuses on specialty steel, iron ore and Chinese real estate.
There would be something absurd about Cathay, a company with net debt to equity of about 100 per cent, tapping up Air China, where the ratio is about 250 per cent. But the facts are uncomfortable. Cathay’s gearing is more than double its own 20-year average, at a time when operating metrics have rarely been worse. A succession of regional peers – including Qantas, ANA and Malaysia’s AirAsia – has raised equity in recent months.
And the capital gap between Cathay and Singapore Airlines, the sector prefect with net cash, is widening. Total debt to equity at the Temasek-backed carrier is not far off its average 10 per cent since 1990; it has said it is seeking opportunities in China or India. Mr Tyler will want to focus on signs of recovery at Cathay’s interim results next month. Investors may not let him.
BACKGROUND NEWS
Cathay Pacific Airways this week released combined Cathay Pacific and Dragonair traffic figures for June 2009 that show a sharp fall in passenger numbers compared to the same month last year, in part due to the impact of the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak. There was also another marked year-on-year drop in the amount of cargo and mail carried.
In June, Cathay Pacific and Dragonair carried a total of 1,738,413 passengers – a drop of 18.1 per cent against the same month in 2008 – while the load factor fell by 4.5 percentage points to 76.8 per cent. Capacity for the month, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), was down 9.1 per cent.
Published: July 14 2009 09:01 | Last updated: July 14 2009 09:26
Eat my shoots. A month ago Tony Tyler, chief executive of Cathay Pacific, swatted away concerns over a rights issue by telling analysts that things had stopped getting worse. Traffic figures for June, released on Monday, tell a different story. Passenger numbers fell the most, year-on-year, since the peak of Sars. Even with big capacity reductions, load factors weakened further. Don’t even ask about premium, about two-fifths of total revenues.
Mr Tyler cannot be blamed for misreading the outlook, or for trusting faulty forecasting tools. Even so, it is time to ask the awkward questions again. Does Cathay need a recapitalisation? And could its shareholders be relied upon to back it? Swire Pacific, the largest holder with 40 per cent and manager of the airline, would presumably deliver the goods. But Air China, holder of 17 per cent, is living hand to mouth. Citic Pacific, with another 17 per cent, is still shaking off a record annual loss as it refocuses on specialty steel, iron ore and Chinese real estate.
There would be something absurd about Cathay, a company with net debt to equity of about 100 per cent, tapping up Air China, where the ratio is about 250 per cent. But the facts are uncomfortable. Cathay’s gearing is more than double its own 20-year average, at a time when operating metrics have rarely been worse. A succession of regional peers – including Qantas, ANA and Malaysia’s AirAsia – has raised equity in recent months.
And the capital gap between Cathay and Singapore Airlines, the sector prefect with net cash, is widening. Total debt to equity at the Temasek-backed carrier is not far off its average 10 per cent since 1990; it has said it is seeking opportunities in China or India. Mr Tyler will want to focus on signs of recovery at Cathay’s interim results next month. Investors may not let him.
BACKGROUND NEWS
Cathay Pacific Airways this week released combined Cathay Pacific and Dragonair traffic figures for June 2009 that show a sharp fall in passenger numbers compared to the same month last year, in part due to the impact of the Influenza A (H1N1) outbreak. There was also another marked year-on-year drop in the amount of cargo and mail carried.
In June, Cathay Pacific and Dragonair carried a total of 1,738,413 passengers – a drop of 18.1 per cent against the same month in 2008 – while the load factor fell by 4.5 percentage points to 76.8 per cent. Capacity for the month, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), was down 9.1 per cent.
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Tipping points: sorry to say that we've arrived at one. This isn't a normal recession and what follows won't be a normal recovery. Chickens coming home etc and other metaphors. M3 + level of public debt is the narrative.
Turbulence ahead; fasten seat belt sign on; head between knees; barf bag at the ready: Barf. Feel better? You shouldn't - it's not over yet.
Not a good time to load up on debt with only the implied promise of a false dawn as a bail out.
Turbulence ahead; fasten seat belt sign on; head between knees; barf bag at the ready: Barf. Feel better? You shouldn't - it's not over yet.
Not a good time to load up on debt with only the implied promise of a false dawn as a bail out.
The M3 figures are showing the same numbers that they did months before the Lehmans collapse and credit crunch I.
Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks - Telegraph
I'm not actually related to Ambrose..
WWW
Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks - Telegraph
Eurozone falls into deflation as M3 money supply shrinks
First time the region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 8:00PM BST 30 Jun 2009
The eurozone region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago. The M3 money supply has contracted over the last three months, flashing warning signs of potential trouble in six to nine months' time.
First time the region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago.
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Published: 8:00PM BST 30 Jun 2009
The eurozone region has tipped into deflation for the first time since modern records began half a century ago. The M3 money supply has contracted over the last three months, flashing warning signs of potential trouble in six to nine months' time.
I'm not actually related to Ambrose..
WWW
Why its different this time...
'nuff said,
WWW
Actually, it isn't. What this shows is that people are as poor as they ever were. Owning a newish BMW, a home and a Villa in Spain really is just for the wealthiest 3 or 4%. The only way such lifestyle extravagance was extended to around a third of the population was by extending credit. People were willing to spend on servicing debt and thereby fund massive consumption.
Part of that massive consumption binge was Air Travel. Which, with Ryanair and easyJet alone growing from 0 to 390 aircraft in 11 years, must come to an end and contract.
Pilots will be the Miners of this recession but without the violence or sympathy.
'nuff said,
WWW
Actually, it isn't. What this shows is that people are as poor as they ever were. Owning a newish BMW, a home and a Villa in Spain really is just for the wealthiest 3 or 4%. The only way such lifestyle extravagance was extended to around a third of the population was by extending credit. People were willing to spend on servicing debt and thereby fund massive consumption.
Part of that massive consumption binge was Air Travel. Which, with Ryanair and easyJet alone growing from 0 to 390 aircraft in 11 years, must come to an end and contract.
Pilots will be the Miners of this recession but without the violence or sympathy.
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I'm on the deflation side of the fence
The Print Press, just can not keep up with debt destruction. Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.
Webster's meaning of Deflation which is so appropriate to aviation....
A fall in the average prices of goods and services; - usually associated with contraction of economic activity. Opposite of inflation. Compare disinflation.
The reduction of available credit or a contraction of economic activity resulting from or associated with a decline of prices.
The reduction of available credit or a contraction of economic activity resulting from or associated with a decline of prices.
Ben Bernanke blue print out on how to Prevent Deflation and see how were doing..
http://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/3437...ml#post5054220
Last edited by cjd_a320; 14th Jul 2009 at 12:14.
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I'm not actually related to Ambrose..WWW
I'm on the deflation side of the fence, but this is all so horribly messed up ( I own an aircraft on lease) that whatever happens next will most assuredly neither surprise nor delight me.
I should have gone for the swimming pool option. Hole in the ground full of water. So simple - nothing to deflate or depreciate. Brilliant!
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Again we'll go against the herd and say we need alot more printing of paper.
But now I sound like an armchair economist, and I do hope my pessimism is misplaced. Unfortunately I don't think that it is.
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Well this is all rather depressing! To be honest I am going to employ an ostrich head in sand approach otherwise I am going to end up bloody topping myself! Ignorance is bliss and I'm fed up of actually knowing how crap things are so I'm going to join the majority (stupid British public) and let those that can actually do something about it worry.
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I'll add to 350Z's rather tongue in cheek post about Ignorance...
The "sheepeople", always get the short straw through their own igorance. If ones aware of the situtation, you can adapt,anticipate and prosper. Some people/sectors did very well in the last depression, its cyclical like everything else.
Aviation had its time in the sun, now its set for a long period of Darkness...
Its just hard to take off these rose tinted aviation goggles(foggles) in order to really see whats happening...
The "sheepeople", always get the short straw through their own igorance. If ones aware of the situtation, you can adapt,anticipate and prosper. Some people/sectors did very well in the last depression, its cyclical like everything else.
Aviation had its time in the sun, now its set for a long period of Darkness...
Its just hard to take off these rose tinted aviation goggles(foggles) in order to really see whats happening...
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you can adapt,anticipate and prosper
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Just have to do a little bit of research we carn't post that sort of thing on an open aviation board... 
)
I agree in the long term, however the powers that be have embarked on this route & alot more printing will be necessary on this long slow deflationary road....
)
cjd_a320, since you mention it: Deflation may well rule, but QE is the yellow brick road to even more trouble.
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Well some (if very few) are doing rather well out of this recession....my previous employer is a medium sized chain of pet sotres across the south of the UK.....they're doing better than ever and since the recession started have been opening at least one new store a month. The company has no real loans or HP to speak of continues to do very well. My point being, people are still spending on the highstreet but rather than a new sofa they're buying Fido a new bed!
The flip side to that is my family being in the metal industry.....my dad is currently seeing at least one business in the trade go tits up every week or so at the moment. And these arent one man bands, these companies are all legit and long standing firms in the employing at least 50 people upwards each. Companies that spent £100k a month with my dad this time last year are now spending £1k a month if that.
. Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.
2W2R
The flip side to that is my family being in the metal industry.....my dad is currently seeing at least one business in the trade go tits up every week or so at the moment. And these arent one man bands, these companies are all legit and long standing firms in the employing at least 50 people upwards each. Companies that spent £100k a month with my dad this time last year are now spending £1k a month if that.
. Manufacturing has gone well and truly down the toilet and its something that doesnt get that widely reported on by the media. All we seem to hear about is high street and finance sector businesses. The grim truth being that first in a very long line of dominoes in the manufacturing sector has been well and truly flicked....they're dropping like flies and I think this will lead to another sudden spike in unemployment very soon.2W2R
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China state fillip sends GDP soaring to 7.8%
China’s economy rebounded in the second quarter, boosted by a surge in state spending and in bank lending, setting the scene for the biggest emerging economy to lead the world out of the worst global downturn since the Great Depression.
Economists had expected the economy to show some strong improvement as a huge 4.0 trillion yuan (£365 billion) government stimulus package announced last November began to take effect, but few had foreseen that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate in the second quarter to 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter.
That made China the world’s the best-performing big economy. It is now the third-biggest in the world.
There was growth from several sectors of the economy, including investment in fixed assets in urban areas in the first half and in June industrial production. Retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, rose 15 per cent in June from a year earlier after May's 15.2 per cent increase.
Economists had expected the economy to show some strong improvement as a huge 4.0 trillion yuan (£365 billion) government stimulus package announced last November began to take effect, but few had foreseen that annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth would accelerate in the second quarter to 7.9 per cent, up from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter.
That made China the world’s the best-performing big economy. It is now the third-biggest in the world.
There was growth from several sectors of the economy, including investment in fixed assets in urban areas in the first half and in June industrial production. Retail sales, a rough proxy for consumption, rose 15 per cent in June from a year earlier after May's 15.2 per cent increase.
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'Upturn signs' in housing market
The housing market is showing the first signs of an upturn since 2006, the Home Builders Federation (HBF) has said.The body's survey of Britain's major home builders found 60% of those asked had seen an increase in sales compared to the same time last year.
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Thousands of workers and their families are expected to march on Teesside later in protest over the looming closure of a Corus plant in Redcar. The steelmaker has warned it may have to close the plant because a consortium of customers has withdrawn from a 10-year contract to buy its steel.
Unions say the closure will result in the loss of 2,000 jobs at the plant, as well as another 1,000 jobs elsewhere.
Unions say the closure will result in the loss of 2,000 jobs at the plant, as well as another 1,000 jobs elsewhere.
Quant....I too saw the news from the HBF, however until the banks start widespread lending again its pretty meaningless. They can build all the houses they want but if there's no way for people to finance them then whats the point. According to the bloke who represents the banks that was on BBC breakfast, they're lending an additional £7bn a month but they're very reluctant to lend to anyone that they feel may not be able to meet the repayments.......Have the banks found their morals or is this just another excuse not to use the £billions of taxpayers money to start the market moving again????
2W2R
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UK economy heading for ‘fragile’ recovery
OFFICIAL FIGURES this week for Britain’s second-quarter gross domestic product will confirm the worst of the recession is over. But a report from the Ernst & Young Item club, using the Treasury’s economic model, will warn of a fragile recovery, with the threat of a “double dip” back into recession.
Second-quarter GDP figures, to be published on Friday, are expected to show the economy shrank only slightly after its record six-monthly fall in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Some economists think the figures could even show a small rise but, according to Ideaglobal.com, the consensus among analysts is that there will be a fall of 0.3%, after drops of 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the two previous quarters. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which produces monthly GDP estimates, expects a fall of 0.4%.
Signs that the economy is stabilising after its autumn and winter plunge will be welcomed – largely reflecting the start of a turnround in stocks, or inventories – but economists remain cautious.
Second-quarter GDP figures, to be published on Friday, are expected to show the economy shrank only slightly after its record six-monthly fall in the fourth quarter of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Some economists think the figures could even show a small rise but, according to Ideaglobal.com, the consensus among analysts is that there will be a fall of 0.3%, after drops of 1.8% and 2.4% respectively in the two previous quarters. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research, which produces monthly GDP estimates, expects a fall of 0.4%.
Signs that the economy is stabilising after its autumn and winter plunge will be welcomed – largely reflecting the start of a turnround in stocks, or inventories – but economists remain cautious.