Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Hey guys, it looks like right now is a fantastic time to start flight training. The future looks so bright.
PS, I'm selling rose-tinted glasses on ebay if anyone wants some but I feel a fair few have already bought some!!!
PS, I'm selling rose-tinted glasses on ebay if anyone wants some but I feel a fair few have already bought some!!!
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British Airways prepares to make new cuts
British Airways announced plans last night to cut its spending by one fifth and to cut capacity as it tries to preserve cash.
BA, which six weeks ago reported a record loss of £401 million, also confirmed that it was looking to reduce its workforce by the equivalent of 3,700 full-time jobs this year. That is on top of the 2,500 posts cut by BA, which remains in talks with unions, between June last year and this March.
BA, which six weeks ago reported a record loss of £401 million, also confirmed that it was looking to reduce its workforce by the equivalent of 3,700 full-time jobs this year. That is on top of the 2,500 posts cut by BA, which remains in talks with unions, between June last year and this March.
I agree with you helimutt but i got to fly even though that means keeping my crappy job and flying on the weekends.
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Worst of the recession 'is over'
The worst of the recession is over, according to the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) business group, but talk of a recovery is premature.
Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.
Its report, based on a survey of 5,600 companies, found there had been "welcome progress" in confidence levels between April and June.
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I wish it was over, but I realistically doubt that it is.
The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking - Telegraph
Thread creep: what can happen should you pay up-front.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/bu...?_r=1&emc=eta1
The unemployment timebomb is quietly ticking - Telegraph
Thread creep: what can happen should you pay up-front.
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07/05/bu...?_r=1&emc=eta1
You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.
I'm afraid to say that is unlikely in 2009 or 2010.
What was a decade long unsustainable boom is now over. Returns to normality will not feature a return to the NICE decade (Non- Inflationary Consistently Expansionary) situation whereby Ryanair and easyJet could be invented and grow to a fleet of 357 jets (BA has 228, Thomas Cook 44, BMI 54 for comparison).
Recent years have been an aberration. No unemployment whatsoever. £30k a year unearned income from house price inflation and mortgage equity withdrawal. Unconfined credit.
This is not, was not and will not be sustained again. As a consequence the demand for airline pilots has dropped and will drop.
Don't let anyone lie to you otherwise.
WWW
I'm afraid to say that is unlikely in 2009 or 2010.
What was a decade long unsustainable boom is now over. Returns to normality will not feature a return to the NICE decade (Non- Inflationary Consistently Expansionary) situation whereby Ryanair and easyJet could be invented and grow to a fleet of 357 jets (BA has 228, Thomas Cook 44, BMI 54 for comparison).
Recent years have been an aberration. No unemployment whatsoever. £30k a year unearned income from house price inflation and mortgage equity withdrawal. Unconfined credit.
This is not, was not and will not be sustained again. As a consequence the demand for airline pilots has dropped and will drop.
Don't let anyone lie to you otherwise.
WWW
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All assets go down in price during deflation except one: cash. Cash is the only asset that assuredly rises in value during deflation.
People should save there pennies rather than wasting such a valuable "asset" on pilot training durining a deflationary period....
People should save there pennies rather than wasting such a valuable "asset" on pilot training durining a deflationary period....
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You'll know when the bottom has been reached and passed when the unemployment figures are dropping month on month.
We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.
Clearly, we don' t really know what's going on. And we can only speculate on the future.
Why? What is new?
1-fuel reserve (or unstable price)/environment
2-the globalization of the economy/Asia
3-the share holders need a salary, not the employee anymore apparently
4-a new finance world that is unable to share their profit
That what appeared in the 80s 90s.
And what is sensitive to fuel speculation, to economy? Aviation.
Aviation will have to change. It has no choice.
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We are not really in a recession, sorry to say that. We are at a corner stone, we are in a period of change.
People need to dig their history books out and have a look what happened in the last great deflation between 1711 & 1784... Not the lesser 1929-32 correction.
*It can argued that 1999 was the cyclical top if paper assets such as the Dow Jones index are potted against Gold.
http://pricedingold.com/charts/DJIA-1900.pdf
Last edited by cjd_a320; 7th Jul 2009 at 15:38.
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It seems quite weird to compare the 18th Century to the 21st. I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed. Technology has come. Government intervention is more widespread, for better or for worse and hard to tell the difference. Automated trades, automated trade halts, derivatives, news traveling at lightspeed. All give the tools for a crash to be far worse or for one to be prevented with the ultimate outcome depending on far more variables than were around 300 years ago.
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I'm not ready to buy it. Times have changed.
Have a read of Charles Mackay's Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of crowds (1852).
or Neil ferguson History of Money (2008) for a more modern day slant....
History is our only guide we have when trying to look towards the future.....
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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The quiet 'industry cull' is still ongoing...speaking to a mate this week who flies for a LE45 operator in the London area, has been forced a 25% pay cut and part-time roster...he's very happy he's kept his job.
I work for the UK's 3rd largest airline and despite speaking to a Director on one of my flights this week and hearing July holidays are 100% sold, August is almost there too - we have a pilot surplus, we a removing more aircraft from the fleet this winter...increasing the pilot surplus...
Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.
The possibility of a position as a pilot for anyone with zero experience and a new licence is, maybe, further away than we originally forecast...
I work for the UK's 3rd largest airline and despite speaking to a Director on one of my flights this week and hearing July holidays are 100% sold, August is almost there too - we have a pilot surplus, we a removing more aircraft from the fleet this winter...increasing the pilot surplus...
Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.
The possibility of a position as a pilot for anyone with zero experience and a new licence is, maybe, further away than we originally forecast...
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Beware November onwards...I would actually advise anyone who is presently undergoing training to reach a sensible point to stop...and get a paying job.
however potential 'button pushers' (aka pilots) should also be aware that the oil price will start to rise when the economy gets better thus pushing up the cost of training. My advice would be to finish and get a paying job, if you can and play the 'keeping current game' Right time to go to my paying job
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I'm with you on this WWW!
This ol' timer hasn't always agreed with WWW...but his post (2754) I believe to be spot-on.... tragically and awfully spot-on. Even if (and that's a very big "if") the UK economy is heading for Hell more slowly, there'll be a protracted plateau as we stumble along the bottom before gradually starting to recover... but that's the ECONOMY remember...and when it comes to recession, our industry is always first in and last out. There's already a sizeable bank of rated and experiened crew out there looking for jobs... and many more will be joining them before next Spring. Who out there with more than a single brain-cell would throw huge sums of money at training right now? Sincere good luck to one and all, I've been through a number of recessions since the early 70s...but nothing like this. Cheers bm
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Heard from a friend in Netjets that they are looking to cull 1/3 of the pilot workforce from the smaller jet end of the business!
Apparently the company are offering various 'options' including 1 year on, 1 year off, Redundancy package and off you go, x months on x months off etc.
Seems to be well run but is still a dramatic cull of up to 400 pilots!
BA are culling their winter schedule. The recently announced BALPA deal with BA to avoid compulsory redundancy has a line in it stating that the deal does not cover surplus generated due to reduction in future capacity!
The next year will continue to be extremely challenging. The 'surplus' sloshing around in the world will take a long time to be hoovered up. The future will be of longer rosters, fewer crew, shorter turrnarounds, reduced pay, more sectors etc.
Personally, if I were starting out now, I would take the advice above and either not start or, if I were in the process, finish and get another job until this all stabilises. Look at least two to three years from now and you might be ok.
Apparently the company are offering various 'options' including 1 year on, 1 year off, Redundancy package and off you go, x months on x months off etc.
Seems to be well run but is still a dramatic cull of up to 400 pilots!
BA are culling their winter schedule. The recently announced BALPA deal with BA to avoid compulsory redundancy has a line in it stating that the deal does not cover surplus generated due to reduction in future capacity!
The next year will continue to be extremely challenging. The 'surplus' sloshing around in the world will take a long time to be hoovered up. The future will be of longer rosters, fewer crew, shorter turrnarounds, reduced pay, more sectors etc.
Personally, if I were starting out now, I would take the advice above and either not start or, if I were in the process, finish and get another job until this all stabilises. Look at least two to three years from now and you might be ok.
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Falling house prices ease in new recovery hope
Falls in house prices eased in June, offering fresh evidence that confidence is returning to the market, according to Halifax.
There was a 0.5 per cent decline in house prices in June, Halifax said. In the three months to the end of June, house prices declined by 1.9 per cent, the smallest quarterly fall since the first three months of 2008.
Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said: "These figures provide evidence that the underlying pace of house price decline is easing."
The June decline brought the annual fall in house prices to 15 per cent, taking down the value of the average home to £157,713.
There was a 0.5 per cent decline in house prices in June, Halifax said. In the three months to the end of June, house prices declined by 1.9 per cent, the smallest quarterly fall since the first three months of 2008.
Martin Ellis, Halifax's housing economist, said: "These figures provide evidence that the underlying pace of house price decline is easing."
The June decline brought the annual fall in house prices to 15 per cent, taking down the value of the average home to £157,713.
You could always do what I did. Go out and get the qualifications you need. Stay in your present job. When an opportunity arises in the future which is good enough to replace your present employment, then go for it. Some people get lucky. Some people wait 12 years! ppl 1994, full time pilot 2006! I was in no hurry though and even now, not bothered what happens.
Figures stated daily in the press about house price falls slowing, just means that things are still crap, but padded out to make it look like good news.
Oil finally dropping to more sensible prices today due to the slowdown. They'll fall further I feel. (wonder if petrol and diesel will come down in price?)
Figures stated daily in the press about house price falls slowing, just means that things are still crap, but padded out to make it look like good news.
Oil finally dropping to more sensible prices today due to the slowdown. They'll fall further I feel. (wonder if petrol and diesel will come down in price?)
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Estate agents and building societies are for ever stating that things in their market are "great, improving, you can't lose etc."
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they have a vested interest in talking up the market!
The fact is housing got to a vastly over-inflated level on the back of more borrowed money than the economy could withstand and until that problem is resolved, ie. a massive drop in prices, the ecomomy will continue to stagnate.
At least in the States they see that and slash prices to a level which becomes attractive. To my eyes property in the UK is still way over priced, especially when you consider how difficult money is to come by now.
This is going to take a very long time to see a real recovery.
Of course it has nothing to do with the fact that they have a vested interest in talking up the market!
The fact is housing got to a vastly over-inflated level on the back of more borrowed money than the economy could withstand and until that problem is resolved, ie. a massive drop in prices, the ecomomy will continue to stagnate.
At least in the States they see that and slash prices to a level which becomes attractive. To my eyes property in the UK is still way over priced, especially when you consider how difficult money is to come by now.
This is going to take a very long time to see a real recovery.
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IMF more upbeat on 2010 recovery
Worldwide economic growth is expected to recover to 2.5% in 2010, says the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
That is higher than the IMF's earlier estimate of 1.9% growth next year, made in April, with the increase expected to be led by India and China.
But the IMF still expects the global economy to contract 1.4% this year.
For the UK, the IMF has revised down its 2009 economic forecast by 0.1% to -4.2%, but it now expects the economy to expand by 0.2% next year.
The IMF had previously said it expected the British economy to contract by 0.4% in 2010.
That is higher than the IMF's earlier estimate of 1.9% growth next year, made in April, with the increase expected to be led by India and China.
But the IMF still expects the global economy to contract 1.4% this year.
For the UK, the IMF has revised down its 2009 economic forecast by 0.1% to -4.2%, but it now expects the economy to expand by 0.2% next year.
The IMF had previously said it expected the British economy to contract by 0.4% in 2010.