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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 22nd May 2009, 12:59
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Emirates airline profits down 72%

The Emirates group, the largest airline in the Middle East, has reported a fall in profits of 72% for the 2008/09 fiscal year.
BBC NEWS | Business | Emirates airline profits down 72%

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Old 26th May 2009, 11:48
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Virgin Atlantic profits soar on premium flyers

Virgin Atlantic, the airline majority owned by Sir Richard Branson’s Virgin Group, announced this morning that its annual profits almost doubled in the year to February, as its rival, British Airways, slumped to its biggest loss in more than two decades.
Pre-tax profits at Virgin Atlantic soared from £34.8 million to £68.4 million in the year as more people flew using its premium services.
The increase came against a background of wildly fluctuating oil prices, which reached a record high of $147 dollars a barrel last July, and a global downturn. Almost six million people flew with Virgin Atlantic over the year.
The airline spent almost £1 billion on fuel during the year, but profits were aided by hedging its oil prices and currency benefits
Virgin Atlantic profits soar on premium flyers - Times Online

At least we're doing something right

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Old 26th May 2009, 21:16
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My hairy arse says they are losing money by the bucket load.

If BA are being tortured by their collapsing yields in First and Business then either everyones flying with Branson or Bransons lying. Anyone who has read up on the topic knows which is more likely.

This winter will see the demise of more than one UK airline. Wannabes beware.

WWW
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Old 27th May 2009, 01:40
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WWW - You a dad yet there buddy?
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Old 27th May 2009, 09:33
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Sooo.....

This winter looks like its going to be pretty bad, but this could very well be the lowest of the low for this particular downturn. From then on we are looking at a very long, drawn out recovery, to a position that isn't quite back upto 2006 levels, by about 2012/2013.

That's my guess.
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Old 27th May 2009, 11:43
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Apologies but I maintain late 2010 early 2011 the economy will present strong growth statistics. Although, I would argue that the aviation world will not feel the effects of any recovery until the middle of 2012.

I would therefore question whether now is rather a good time to be considering doing completing the ATPLs. Remember the market will be a tough nut to crack with several thousand experienced crew out there vying for the same positions. Sadly, I would argue that is life, it is up to you as an individual to make yourself an attractive option to the perspective employers – Please though, don’t consider self financing line training or even the type rating!!
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Old 27th May 2009, 12:26
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I think I shall start in a year from now, all things being equal that is
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Old 27th May 2009, 14:21
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My hairy arse says they are losing money by the bucket load
I know their stock is not listed but do you really think Virgin would lie as transparently as you suggest in a press release - particularly when the full year results will ultimately be published? I've done a quick search to see if any analysts agree with your hirsute derriere but it seems to be on its own on this one. Would appreciate any supporting evidence?
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Old 27th May 2009, 15:59
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Virgin Atlantic, the UK long-haul airline controlled by Sir Richard Branson, said its pre-tax profits had almost doubled last year – but the results were helped by its status as a private company and the rules under which it reports its accounts.
The airline is 49 per cent owned by Singapore Airlines and figures from the Singapore group, produced under the widely adopted international financial reporting standards, show Virgin Atlantic barely broke even in the 12 months to the end of March and was heavily lossmaking in the final quarter of that period.
FT.com / Companies / Airlines - UK rules help Virgin Atlantic profit
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Old 27th May 2009, 16:26
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Thanks, that's one for WWW's bottom. From your link I have:
A leading aviation auditor said that by IFRS and fair-value accounting rules, derivatives losses were recognised. By UK Gaap (generally accepted accounting practice) they were disclosed but not recognised in the results.

Mr Chan said: “They [Virgin Atlantic] do not apply IFRSs. So we had to make some adjustments in relation to their hedges and because they do use proxy hedges there are some adjustments for [the] ineffectiveness of the hedge.”

Chew Choon Seng, Singapore Airlines’ chief executive, said that during the financial year to March 31, its 49 per cent stake in Virgin Atlantic had contributed S$400,000, a virtual break even, to its total profits of S$111m from associate companies.
I'm trying to get my head around this. Are they saying that derivatives losses/profits don't show in the P&L using Gaap? Where would they appear then?
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Old 27th May 2009, 18:43
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Correct they won't appear until they are realised under UK GAAP. As far as I remember (and its been a long time since I did any debits and credits!) under International Accounting Standards you would mark to market any financial instruments - hedges, swaps etc. In other words even if the "contract" had not yet expired at the balance sheet date you would recognise the profit or loss on the particular financial instrument in question. Under UK GAAP which the article says Virgin use it doesn't have to recognise any profit or loss until it effectively crystallises into cash ie: the contract expires or money changes hands.

As a private company it presumably avails of lots of other financial reporting dispensations so in reality its results aren't comparable to many of its publicly listed competitors. As always the only indicators of any use would be the revenue per seat km, yields, cashflows, capex etc but they probably don't even bother disclosing that sort of stuff as they are not likely to have to as a private company.
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Old 27th May 2009, 18:49
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Alex - I tried for years to get my head around them as well, but quite frankly, they are ridiculously confusing. What is means is that someone can "hedge account", or offset a set of cash inflows and outflows, so that they show no profit or loss until the end of the life of the "arrangement" if they are intending hedging two items (such as foreign exchange and a derivatives contract with a bank). Under UK GAAP, you can designate this hedge arrangement and test it only at Day 1, forever after ignoring it.

IFRS requires continual retesting of the effectiveness of that arrangement, such that if it is ineffective, it is eliminated in accounting terms and an instand profit or loss is booked (even though the derivative itself is not terminated with the bank).

Confused? I am...and I used to test them myself.

I loathe them, as it means people hide things off balance sheet that they spring up on you in extreme circumstances. Obviously the actual hedging has a real economic value, but the accounting is quite frankly over-academic rubbish, primarily introduced to reduce banks' capital requirements. Didn't help in the present market surprisingly!

According to Chan Hon Chew, senior vice-president finance for Singapore Airlines, the group’s fourth-quarter associate losses of S$106m (£45.9m) had “largely” come from its share of losses at Virgin Atlantic.

He told investors this month that Singapore Airlines had to adjust Virgin Atlantic UK Gaap numbers to bring them into line with IFRS. The adjustments chiefly concern how derivatives – for example, fuel and currency hedges – are accounted for.
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Old 27th May 2009, 19:59
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Thank you both, that makes perfect sense. And there was me thinking that GAAP was regarded as superior to the American accounting conventions, or is that another can of worms? You live and learn!
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Old 27th May 2009, 20:04
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They are better...US GAAP is a prescriptive, rule-based mess...!
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Old 28th May 2009, 04:07
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I would have thought that all that matters for young wanabees is that Virgin have been laying off pilots.
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Old 29th May 2009, 15:42
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Airline's wedding plans scrapped

Budget airline easyJet will not be able to offer couples the chance to get married in the skies after a Bedfordshire council rejected the plan.
BBC NEWS | England | Beds/Bucks/Herts | Airline's wedding plans scrapped

pitty i was looking forward to the day i would say rotate & then you may kiss the bride
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Old 29th May 2009, 18:54
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Rise reported in UK house prices

Some good news:

House prices rose 1.2% in May on April, offering evidence of activity in the UK housing market, according to figures from the Nationwide building society.
BBC NEWS | Business | Rise reported in UK house prices

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Old 30th May 2009, 11:08
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Thumbs down

ahah, if some of you think it s a good time to start training. you are wrong. you were wrong years ago, and you are wrong again.

You can still start training and find yourself out of cash very soon. Training is still more expensive every month, the pound is low and will still devaluate until 2012, and the easy loan time is over.No bank will give you the money. What will happen to you next? you start training and you will find you need more money to finish (trto want more, or they are out of business, and you money is out too!).

Your bank will tell you if you want more, go get a job, and pay your debts, or you get nothing.even if you manage to finish your training, you will hang out in the streets with your nice shiny license and your miserable 200 hours in your logbook. I have seen many like these, some lost all their money in school bankrupt (over 30'000$).

where do you go then? when the market is filled with experience copilot ready to pay to work.

airlines don't need you, they never answer to you or send any information to you. It s the TRTO who make you believe there is a pilot shortage.
These TRTOs are out of business already but don's say anything, they are in a state of "survival", after winter they will close their doors as they can not pay electric bills(airlines will die one after one as well), and you will be stuck outside in the snow, with nothing!

you think I am kidding , because my English is not perfect? that is not possible( nobody can lose his money in a reputable TRTO)? let's see! I may come to bring you some old shoes I still have and a old pilot jackets full of holes. I will ask you to pay for the coffee, cuz easy coffee is over (now I am kidding cuz roastbeef prefer tea ).

Modular is the best, get trained with the money you have, and pay as you go!

Last edited by dartagnan; 30th May 2009 at 11:19.
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Old 30th May 2009, 13:53
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House prices rose 1.2% in May on April, offering evidence of activity in the UK housing market, according to figures from the Nationwide building society.

In the period 1990 - 1992 when house prices were crashing last time house prices actually rose in 1 out of 3 months. Every month there was a rise the whole Vested Interest industry trumpeted it but were always very much quieter for the next two months when they fell again.

We've just had Spring and Easter which is to the house selling market what Christmas is to the High Street.

Against rising unemployment and looming interest rate rises talk of an end to house price deflation is nuts. All you need to know is the following:

The post war average house price is 3.5 times average earnings. Average earnings are £25k. Average house prices are still £148k. When they hit £100k then we'll start talking about bottoms.


WWW


ps Airlines go bust after the recession ends usually.
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Old 30th May 2009, 15:06
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Snoop

ps Airlines go bust after the recession ends usually.
Oh good, that must mean the recession's nearly over, seeing as the harbingers of doom on Pprune have been telling us confidently for months that 30 major airlines will go bust by the end of 2009. Or was it by the end 2008? I can't remember now...the goalposts keep moving.
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