Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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clanger32
To be perfectly honest, good advice is going to be difficult as none of us have seen or experienced the current crisis before. What I can say is that anyone who is to far in to back out will need to use every bit of resourcefulness they can muster. Back in the 80's I knew a pilot who literally camped outside a chief pilots office until he got a job. Another pilot did all the research about a company, its directors, the history, its finances, its forward plans, everything. When he went to interview, he was asked what he knew about the company. He gave a 20 min presentation that contained information that even the interviewers didn't know, he got the job.
What I'm saying is, make yourself unique. Interviews are going to be few and far between, and those that are available will be full of low ball questions.
Q. Have you read the papers.
A Yes.
Q. what makes you think we have a job then.
A. Your last quarter performance was impressive in a contracting market and you were top in this sector. I dont believe this was luck, but down to exceptional management skill. This quarters performance is likely to bear that out. I see a need to expand and choose the right people that are positive in the direction this company is going.
No point in talking about you ATPL, everybody has one. Be different.
What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].
What I'm saying is, make yourself unique. Interviews are going to be few and far between, and those that are available will be full of low ball questions.
Q. Have you read the papers.
A Yes.
Q. what makes you think we have a job then.
A. Your last quarter performance was impressive in a contracting market and you were top in this sector. I dont believe this was luck, but down to exceptional management skill. This quarters performance is likely to bear that out. I see a need to expand and choose the right people that are positive in the direction this company is going.
No point in talking about you ATPL, everybody has one. Be different.
I cannot commend enough the words written by Warren Buffet in his 2002 letter to his shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. Its a startling insight made publicly 6 years ago about the mess we are currently in. That is quite some Jedi level of financial punditry:
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2002pdf.pdf
.. derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Similarly, even experienced investors and analysts encounter major problems in analyzing the financial condition of firms that are heavily involved with derivatives contracts. When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.
Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength – for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.
Don't have nightmares.
WWW
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2002pdf.pdf
.. derivatives severely curtail the ability of regulators to curb leverage and generally get their arms around the risk profiles of banks, insurers and other financial institutions. Similarly, even experienced investors and analysts encounter major problems in analyzing the financial condition of firms that are heavily involved with derivatives contracts. When Charlie and I finish reading the long footnotes detailing the derivatives activities of major banks, the only thing we understand is that we don’t understand how much risk the institution is running.
The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Knowledge of how dangerous they are has already permeated the electricity and gas businesses, in which the eruption of major troubles caused the use of derivatives to diminish dramatically. Elsewhere, however, the derivatives business continues to expand unchecked. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts.
Charlie and I believe Berkshire should be a fortress of financial strength – for the sake of our owners, creditors, policyholders and employees. We try to be alert to any sort of megacatastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly apprehensive about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.
Don't have nightmares.
WWW
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Spinnaker,
Thank you. Seriously, THANK you. Probably the most useful and least self congratulatory post on this thread in five or so pages.
And I fully, fully agree with you - both in that advice is difficult when there is no precedent and that when times are hard, you need to make yourself unique - that goes for whatever job you are going for, regardless of whether that's pilot, accountant or commodity broker.
Thank you. Seriously, THANK you. Probably the most useful and least self congratulatory post on this thread in five or so pages.
And I fully, fully agree with you - both in that advice is difficult when there is no precedent and that when times are hard, you need to make yourself unique - that goes for whatever job you are going for, regardless of whether that's pilot, accountant or commodity broker.
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Indeed, Buffet is a legend.
Nobody thinks that here. People post here to impart knowledge to those unlike yourself who do not have it. While it may appear suicide-worthy to those who have taken the plunge, it may be life-saving to those who have not yet done so.
It doesn't show you in a good light if you think this is funny, or deserved by a single one of them.
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Re-heat,
Again, I fully advocate your last paragraph. However my point is that this "discussion" about the how, why and wherefore of what has caused the current situation, pretty much started on page 17 of this 26 page thread. Over a third of this entire thread is now dedicated to re-hashing information which provides no useful help to any wannabe, either in training or thinking of - other than the re-iterated and implied - but rarely directly stated "it would be a bad idea right now"
Would you not agree that perhaps 9 pages is excessive in throwing the life ring to those 'about' to take the plunge. Would you not agree that the number of wannabes who are UN-aware of the situation is likely minimal and as such perhaps undeserving of 9 pages? Would you not agree that perhaps after 9 pages of advice not to go swimming, perhaps [trying to] throwing a life ring to those who jumped in the pool in sunnier climes might not be a more helpful use of time?
Again, I fully advocate your last paragraph. However my point is that this "discussion" about the how, why and wherefore of what has caused the current situation, pretty much started on page 17 of this 26 page thread. Over a third of this entire thread is now dedicated to re-hashing information which provides no useful help to any wannabe, either in training or thinking of - other than the re-iterated and implied - but rarely directly stated "it would be a bad idea right now"
Would you not agree that perhaps 9 pages is excessive in throwing the life ring to those 'about' to take the plunge. Would you not agree that the number of wannabes who are UN-aware of the situation is likely minimal and as such perhaps undeserving of 9 pages? Would you not agree that perhaps after 9 pages of advice not to go swimming, perhaps [trying to] throwing a life ring to those who jumped in the pool in sunnier climes might not be a more helpful use of time?
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Originally Posted by clanger32
This thread seems to have become about finding the biggest, deepest most painful cut you can find on any given wannabe and applying an industrial sized handful of salt to it, rubbing it in with some undiluted surgical spirit for good measure.
Believe it or not there are some people here who don't want to see anymore people blowing their money or getting into massive debt.
What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].
As for the suggestion of 'making yourself different', you'll need to find a company that is recruiting first which is going to be as rare as a rocking horse turd for the next few years at least. Not all 'tricks and stunts' work, the advice of making yourself different is as old as the hills, I suggest more fail than sucseed so think carefully about what you are doing.
In my opinion your best bet now is to risk another few grand and get an instructors rating to keep your hand in, it's probably the cheapest way you'll find to stay airbourne. Before you do that though, ask around your local flying club(s) whether they are in need of instructors and how many hours you are likely to get if you become one bearing in mind if there are lots of instructors looking for positions you may only get offered an hour or so a week, if that, which may not even cover your petrol money.
IMO, right now the only real ray of light will start in the financial sector and from what i'm reading that hasn't even hit rock bottom yet. Once/if that bouces back then everything else will follow although I have no idea at what sort of pace that will be at, after all these are unprecedented times.
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Clanger32 hear where you are coming from...maybe start another thread.... "101 ways to survive the downturn".... might get some practical advice but i imagine it will very much depend on each individuals personal circumstances.
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But the irony is that I think most wannabee's who are aspiring to a flying career gave up contributing to or reading this thread long ago. They post questions elsewhere without fear of someone be-littling a genuine question they may have.
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OOohh! look a nail....MikeCR....bet you can't hit it directly on the head....oh, it appears you can!
9 pages of the economics of it....I think, think that message is through to anyone that hadn't already got it!
and as I think has potentially been missed - I'm far from worst hit here, in that I've got no debt to pay for my training and have a good career to fall back on, but I AM in contact with people in a worse situation on a daily basis - and THEY are fed up with the constant doom and gloom....it's not that anyone needs telling.
GSB, good thought, but personally I would think it should be the other way around....move the economics to a thread entitled "why the downturn happened" and leave this one to it's original purpose?
9 pages of the economics of it....I think, think that message is through to anyone that hadn't already got it!
and as I think has potentially been missed - I'm far from worst hit here, in that I've got no debt to pay for my training and have a good career to fall back on, but I AM in contact with people in a worse situation on a daily basis - and THEY are fed up with the constant doom and gloom....it's not that anyone needs telling.
GSB, good thought, but personally I would think it should be the other way around....move the economics to a thread entitled "why the downturn happened" and leave this one to it's original purpose?
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But the irony is that I think most wannabee's who are aspiring to a flying career gave up contributing to or reading this thread long ago. They post questions elsewhere without fear of someone be-littling a genuine question they may have.
Right now there is a lot of doom and gloom for very good reason, hopefully that will change, bear in mind i'm also looking for a ray of light here but we have to be realistic about what is happening. I'm as keen as anyone to read a post which genuinely has a kernel of hope which turns into a positive post which eventually turns this thread around.
Here's a positive suggestion, why not start a thread asking how we will be able to recognise the chain of events leading to the start of the up turn which is inevitably going to have to start with the economy and a prediction of when things will stop getting worse. Then we'll find out how much WWW and our so called economic experts really know.
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The events required to kick start a recovery are already underway... i.e. significant government intervention... things are a little calmer today but confidence is ebbing and flowing.
Already talk about a new government fund to purchase problem assets off bank balance sheets + government recapitalisation of banks. Forced consolidation of banks also already happening (Merrills/Bank of america, Lloyds/HBOS). These things are key building blocks to a recovery.
However the real fundamental problem in consumers have too much debt and are now going to have to start paying that down. That is why this downturn could be so pronounced and long lasting.
Those knocking the economics "theme" in this thread miss the point.... it is these themes that will drive the recovery in airline recruitment you are looking for... ignore them at your peril.... as some are now finding to their cost.
I have to say I struggle to find too much sympathy for those currently 6-12 months from finishing an integrated course.... you should have known the whole training process was a gamble from day 1 and things have been looking shakey since August 2007.... that may sound harsh but you shouldn't need sympathy if you put a proper contingence plan in place when you started your training or be fishing around for advice as to what to do now... you should just be activiating "plan B" e.g. back to your old job for 1-2 years....... take cover.... INCOMING! (GSB ducks under desk and waits to be flamed
)
Hopefully people yet to enter the training game will be able to learn from the mistakes of others...
Already talk about a new government fund to purchase problem assets off bank balance sheets + government recapitalisation of banks. Forced consolidation of banks also already happening (Merrills/Bank of america, Lloyds/HBOS). These things are key building blocks to a recovery.
However the real fundamental problem in consumers have too much debt and are now going to have to start paying that down. That is why this downturn could be so pronounced and long lasting.
Those knocking the economics "theme" in this thread miss the point.... it is these themes that will drive the recovery in airline recruitment you are looking for... ignore them at your peril.... as some are now finding to their cost.
I have to say I struggle to find too much sympathy for those currently 6-12 months from finishing an integrated course.... you should have known the whole training process was a gamble from day 1 and things have been looking shakey since August 2007.... that may sound harsh but you shouldn't need sympathy if you put a proper contingence plan in place when you started your training or be fishing around for advice as to what to do now... you should just be activiating "plan B" e.g. back to your old job for 1-2 years....... take cover.... INCOMING! (GSB ducks under desk and waits to be flamed
)Hopefully people yet to enter the training game will be able to learn from the mistakes of others...
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ChrisLKKB
Not very much, I include myself. No one has seen this type of crisis before, I haven't, and no one else has either. We can all make educated stabs at it. The reality is, that even the city experts have got it wrong, they don't know where the bottom is and they don't know what the next move will be. So, for my money, anything anyone says from here on in is guessing, www, me, whoever.
Then we'll find out how much WWW and our so called economic experts really know.
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MIKECR, Clanger23
You echo my sentiments on this thread 100%.
Personally, this has just become a "told you so" sort of thing, I couldn't give a toss who Lehman Brothers were, but for those who can, there's a really good thread in Jetblast.
For the rest like Mike and Clanger who sound bright enough to have figured it all out for themselves..."we're in a downturn?! No, really...??" and really want to know "what does it mean for me". These are now the sort of thoughts that should be kicking around here. I've been where you are in 2001, i've been made redundant twice due to airline's collapsing in 1995 and 1999.
If you're in the middle of exams, well, you've just been gifted the prize of time...go back to work if you haven't already, you have all the time in the world to walk in that exam room and know each subject backwards.
If you now have a fATPL and <200 hours, a FI rating will set you back about £6000. It will depend on what the 6k is to you. But in short, you're now gonna need some income for a while. Totally agree with other's thoughts about making "yourself special" - learn the Jet Engine, start reading about Mach Trim, know what Coffin Corner is, every aspect of High Speed Flight, differences of a straight wing/swept wing, the turbo-prop/jet engine efficiency graph - interview stuff basically, by 2012 this should be a walk in the park.
And if one more person tells us to "be afraid"...Jesus wept...
Right, off to the pub for the best pint of Pride on the South Downs..
You echo my sentiments on this thread 100%.
Personally, this has just become a "told you so" sort of thing, I couldn't give a toss who Lehman Brothers were, but for those who can, there's a really good thread in Jetblast.
For the rest like Mike and Clanger who sound bright enough to have figured it all out for themselves..."we're in a downturn?! No, really...??" and really want to know "what does it mean for me". These are now the sort of thoughts that should be kicking around here. I've been where you are in 2001, i've been made redundant twice due to airline's collapsing in 1995 and 1999.
If you're in the middle of exams, well, you've just been gifted the prize of time...go back to work if you haven't already, you have all the time in the world to walk in that exam room and know each subject backwards.
If you now have a fATPL and <200 hours, a FI rating will set you back about £6000. It will depend on what the 6k is to you. But in short, you're now gonna need some income for a while. Totally agree with other's thoughts about making "yourself special" - learn the Jet Engine, start reading about Mach Trim, know what Coffin Corner is, every aspect of High Speed Flight, differences of a straight wing/swept wing, the turbo-prop/jet engine efficiency graph - interview stuff basically, by 2012 this should be a walk in the park.
And if one more person tells us to "be afraid"...Jesus wept...
Right, off to the pub for the best pint of Pride on the South Downs..
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Financial Crisis....Far from over
WWW has hit the nail on the head.
Problem is complex investment instruments - DERIVATIVES. From perspective of a wannabe, understanding when this mess will be cleared, is not an easy guess.
Trust me, your money is the only thing that is loyal to you in current crisis!! And it says........ let me be with you for some more time!!
Good Luck
Problem is complex investment instruments - DERIVATIVES. From perspective of a wannabe, understanding when this mess will be cleared, is not an easy guess.
Trust me, your money is the only thing that is loyal to you in current crisis!! And it says........ let me be with you for some more time!!
Good Luck
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ChrisLKKB,
My post was intented to answer Clanger32's post(500). He is obviouly looking for genuine help as to the 'next move'. I dont think he's particularly interested in amateur economics hence I suggested he should probably look elsewhere in the forum. Most wannabees switched on to the situation are discussing the burning issues elsewhere. i.e. Flybe's recruitment plan's after they convert the embraer guys, Ryanair recruitment for next year, Jet 2 and the likes of's next years's summer schedules, Funding, how to keep an IR current, etc etc etc...
Why the economic situation occured is of no relevance to them. People can sit and around and pontificate all the like.
So back to my point...thats why I suggested Clanger32 would probably benefit from reading other threads rather than this one.
Personally, I find this thread amusing hence I read it.
My post was intented to answer Clanger32's post(500). He is obviouly looking for genuine help as to the 'next move'. I dont think he's particularly interested in amateur economics hence I suggested he should probably look elsewhere in the forum. Most wannabees switched on to the situation are discussing the burning issues elsewhere. i.e. Flybe's recruitment plan's after they convert the embraer guys, Ryanair recruitment for next year, Jet 2 and the likes of's next years's summer schedules, Funding, how to keep an IR current, etc etc etc...
Why the economic situation occured is of no relevance to them. People can sit and around and pontificate all the like.
So back to my point...thats why I suggested Clanger32 would probably benefit from reading other threads rather than this one.
Personally, I find this thread amusing hence I read it.
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Problem is complex investment instruments - DERIVATIVES. From perspective of a wannabe, understanding when this mess will be cleared, is not an easy guess.
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WWW..
I found this post of yours from the 18th September 2001.
http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...30-crisis.html
Would you say based on the current climate you are more or less worried about training for Wannabes at the moment. You where pretty ademant, and rightly so back then that all students should look at delaying their training for 3-6 months... Looking back you where right and while spinaker thinks we are guessing, I reckon you are best placed to make comments on what will happen in the future.
Me, well I'm not a Wannabe. I've been employed for the last 18 months and was fortunate to start and finish at exactly right time.. This was more luck than Judgement, but even with the number of hours I'm sitting on now, I still have a serious worry about what the future might hold. At the start of the year a good friend of mine spoke to me about starting his training, as he had the money to do it, my advice then was to wait 2-3 years and wait for the up turn, what I didn't realise back then was just how tough it was going to be. Reality is that jobs for the next 2 years are going to be very very hard to come by, Students now are going to have look at instructing instead of a shiney new jets. Question is who they going to instruct? as I think the number of people learning to fly will start to decline, whether it be PPL or 0-heros, simple fact is less people will have disposable income to spend of learning to fly! I think schools will start filling up with students taking instructors course's but no one to instruct.. Other options are going to be working in ops departments or at Airports doing handling etc. As alot of people have mentioned on here, anyone wanting to fly is not only going to have to train but also be very clever and flexible in their approach to getting that first job. I do wish all the best of luck and can only pass on the fact that it's all worth it when you get that first job, all the hard work and sleepness nights are all rewarded when you set those throttles and blast down that 8000ft runway....
I found this post of yours from the 18th September 2001.
http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...30-crisis.html
Would you say based on the current climate you are more or less worried about training for Wannabes at the moment. You where pretty ademant, and rightly so back then that all students should look at delaying their training for 3-6 months... Looking back you where right and while spinaker thinks we are guessing, I reckon you are best placed to make comments on what will happen in the future.
Me, well I'm not a Wannabe. I've been employed for the last 18 months and was fortunate to start and finish at exactly right time.. This was more luck than Judgement, but even with the number of hours I'm sitting on now, I still have a serious worry about what the future might hold. At the start of the year a good friend of mine spoke to me about starting his training, as he had the money to do it, my advice then was to wait 2-3 years and wait for the up turn, what I didn't realise back then was just how tough it was going to be. Reality is that jobs for the next 2 years are going to be very very hard to come by, Students now are going to have look at instructing instead of a shiney new jets. Question is who they going to instruct? as I think the number of people learning to fly will start to decline, whether it be PPL or 0-heros, simple fact is less people will have disposable income to spend of learning to fly! I think schools will start filling up with students taking instructors course's but no one to instruct.. Other options are going to be working in ops departments or at Airports doing handling etc. As alot of people have mentioned on here, anyone wanting to fly is not only going to have to train but also be very clever and flexible in their approach to getting that first job. I do wish all the best of luck and can only pass on the fact that it's all worth it when you get that first job, all the hard work and sleepness nights are all rewarded when you set those throttles and blast down that 8000ft runway....