Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Hopefully that wont transpire...
From the FT updated at 13.33
None the less the whole banking system and practices are being brought into question. Suggestions are that once the dust settles on the smouldering wreck of the banking system that cheap money will be gone and banks will opperate more cautiously (similar to the practices of the 1950's). After the recession, growth will probably be slow and steady which imo will mean recruitment freezes could last well beyond 2009. (that is if people can still afford to fly).
From the FT updated at 13.33
“One minute we were looking at a possible run on the UK’s largest mortgage and savings bank, then the next we have a huge rebound on the merger story. Confidence is the key factor here and the fact is that the banks are vulnerable. Credit is still tight and overnight funding rates are at astonishing levels and that only adds to any funding concerns”.
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...will mean recruitment freezes could last well beyond 2009. (that is if people can still afford to fly).
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Very impressed at how pro-active my employer has been in the past 7 days
But hey, thats business. I immagine XL' demise will serve TCA/MYT and FCA/TOM very well in there own bids for survival. Cant see either of them going south but then I never expected HBOS or AIG to be fighting for life either.
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Unfortunately things have taken a significant turn for the worst again in the last 2-3 hours (and it was hard to imagine that it could get worse) 
US banks are tanking again and CDS spreads have blown out (the effective costs of a bank to borrow money). This is now the mother of all crisis and rivals the turmoil of the Great Depression. Be afraid.... very afraid.... I am
US banks are tanking again and CDS spreads have blown out (the effective costs of a bank to borrow money). This is now the mother of all crisis and rivals the turmoil of the Great Depression. Be afraid.... very afraid.... I am
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BoE extends liquidity scheme:
UPDATE 2-BoE extends liquidity scheme as turmoil intensifies | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters
iX
UPDATE 2-BoE extends liquidity scheme as turmoil intensifies | Markets | Bonds News | Reuters
iX
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Hbos and LloydsTSB... It's not all bad....
Hey at least there is some light
Now LLoydsTSB may be buying HBOS no more annoyingly crap adverts with Howard and the other singing tw*ts.... A small ray of hope
Now LLoydsTSB may be buying HBOS no more annoyingly crap adverts with Howard and the other singing tw*ts.... A small ray of hope
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US banks are tanking again and CDS spreads have blown out (the effective costs of a bank to borrow money). This is now the mother of all crisis and rivals the turmoil of the Great Depression. Be afraid.... very afraid.... I am
Goldman Sachs down 41% today
Morgan Stanley down 25% today
Think I'm going to be joining grass strip basher in being very afraid!!!
Goldman Sachs down 41% today
Morgan Stanley down 25% today
Think I'm going to be joining grass strip basher in being very afraid!!!
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Cheer up, well just have an interlude anyway.
The following links do contain swear words:
The olympics
H,B,O,S
Made me smile
The following links do contain swear words:
The olympics
H,B,O,S
Made me smile
Perhaps now is the time is to unveil the PPRuNe Wannabe Bunker Complex that I have been secretly constructing this past 18 months under my silage pit.
It comes equipped with enough food, water and BGS groundschool notes to keep 20% of UK Wannabes alive for the 5 years of Depression.
With one fifth of believers surviving the coming storm we will be able to re-stock and start again once the aftermath has passed. And Loe - there shallt be a New World. One free from the SSTR, one where the Modular and the Integrated will break bread together, where the reckless moneylenders will be thrown from the temple and the CAA thieves will be starved at the gates. And in this glorious New World will return the promised land of the Airline Cadetship. And it will be good!
I need to lie down.
WWW
It comes equipped with enough food, water and BGS groundschool notes to keep 20% of UK Wannabes alive for the 5 years of Depression.
With one fifth of believers surviving the coming storm we will be able to re-stock and start again once the aftermath has passed. And Loe - there shallt be a New World. One free from the SSTR, one where the Modular and the Integrated will break bread together, where the reckless moneylenders will be thrown from the temple and the CAA thieves will be starved at the gates. And in this glorious New World will return the promised land of the Airline Cadetship. And it will be good!
I need to lie down.
WWW
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Now that made me laugh! Nice one WWW
Those Beaujolais fuelled posts are just the best...excellent year for it by the way, but i've only tried the red...!!!!
Those Beaujolais fuelled posts are just the best...excellent year for it by the way, but i've only tried the red...!!!!
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Albert Edwards, global strategist at Société Générale, said Washington's serial bail-outs are the inevitable result of the credit bubble of preceding years.
"This was all baked in the cake long ago. What we have seen so far is just a dress rehearsal for the deep recession that is coming. America is going to be losing 500,000 jobs a months. That is when we will see interest rates go to zero. The deficit will be covered with printed money as it was in Japan. The endgame will be helicopters full of cash dropped by Ben Bernanke," he said.
That is a serious man at a serious bank saying something incredibly serious. That really is something to be scared about.
"This was all baked in the cake long ago. What we have seen so far is just a dress rehearsal for the deep recession that is coming. America is going to be losing 500,000 jobs a months. That is when we will see interest rates go to zero. The deficit will be covered with printed money as it was in Japan. The endgame will be helicopters full of cash dropped by Ben Bernanke," he said.
That is a serious man at a serious bank saying something incredibly serious. That really is something to be scared about.
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Finally - proof of falling airline yields
So, for all the doubters who believed that a full aircraft meant that the airlines were performing well, here is the evidence that not only are people paying far less but also costs are rising - a true coffin corner for the businesses (FT.com):
Air fares nosedive amid falling travel demand
By Roger Blitz in London
Published: September 18 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 18 2008 03:00
Falling demand for business and leisure travel is causing a marked decline in air fares, with UK fares to North America declining by nearly a half, according to American Express.
Air fares peaked earlier this year as a result of rising oil costs. But the slowing global economy has caused that to reverse.
The lowest economy class fares in Europe, the Middle East and Africa fell on average by 12.5 per cent in April to June compared with the first quarter, with long-haul fares down more than a quarter.
But UK fares suffered the sharpest falls, with the lowest economy fares down by an average of 20.2 per cent, including a 49 per cent fall in fares to North America and a 22 per cent decline in fares to Japan, Asia-Pacific and Australia.
Amex's twice-yearly Business Travel Monitor reveals the extent to which air prices have yo-yoed in the first six months of 2008. Economy fares rose on average by 7.1 per cent in January to March, including a 15.5 per cent rise from the EMEA region to North America. In the first quarter, the lowest economy fares in the UK rose by 11.3 per cent, and standard business fares were up by 6.2 per cent.
The volatile fares have added to the strains in the airline industry.
Joakim Johansson of Amex said: "Trading conditions for airlines have become increasingly difficult in the first half of the year, and 24 airlines filed for bankruptcy in the period, just under half of which were based in Europe."
Amex says increased competition on transatlantic routes created by the launch of Open Skies on April 1 is driving down prices on business class fares. Since April, average business class fares have fallen 25 per cent for London to Newark, and 24 per cent for London to New York's JFK.
London business class fares to Los Angeles and Seattle are down 9 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, the cheapest economy fares are down 10.9 per cent and standard business fares have fallen 4.3 per cent.
Hotel rates in Europe, the Middle East and Africa have also fallen over the second quarter compared with the first. Average daily rates in 41 out of 48 cities in the region rose 6.9 per cent year on year in January to March, but by June, average falls of 3.6 per cent were being recorded in 30 cities.
The euro's strength has caused demand for hotel rooms in Europe from international visitors to tumble and forced prices down. In Paris, hotel prices fell 37 per cent in the second quarter while those in Rome fell 32.4 per cent. London was down 7.7 per cent in the second quarter, and other financial centres suffering were Frankfurt, Edinburgh and Geneva.
"The European hotel market is entering a new phase, with slower demand and lower rates," said Amex's Karen Penney. "After years of strong growth, our analysis shows that rates paid by Amex customers are decreasing in many core European destination cities."
Easyjet warns of tough times ahead
By Toby Shelley
Published: September 17 2008 09:01 | Last updated: September 17 2008 18:48
EasyJet has warned that the strength of the euro and a worsening consumer environment in the UK would slow the strong gains in revenue per seat it had achieved over the summer.
The low-cost carrier, commenting in the light of failures among rival aircraft operators such as Zoom and XL, estimated the industry faced a reduction in capacity of between 2 and 4 per cent over the winter. But it said conditions remained too volatile for it to forecast how that reduced capacity would help its efforts to protect yields on its own flights.
Revenue per seat at EasyJet rose about 15 per cent in the second half. But faced with high fuel costs, adverse currency movements and a worsening economic climate, EasyJet will only modestly increase the number of seats it offers over the winter, as it attempts to defend margins.
For the next financial year, EasyJet said it had hedged 48 per cent of its fuel requirements at $1,225 a tonne, a sharp increase in volume from the 28 per cent it had hedged by late July, and at a lower price. It has also hedged 70 per cent of its dollar requirement at $1.96 to the pound and 80 per cent of its anticipated euro surplus at €1.24 to the pound.
The airline first warned in March that full-year profits would be lower, then analysts downgraded their profits estimates by a quarter. When the company suggested in July the fall would be about 40 per cent, it slipped 10 per cent.
Rival Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair has also seen strong passenger figures but serious erosion in its profitability. It has said it could fall into a full-year loss for the first time in 11 years.
EasyJet shares fell 8¼p to close at 350p on Wednesday.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Air fares nosedive amid falling travel demand
By Roger Blitz in London
Published: September 18 2008 03:00 | Last updated: September 18 2008 03:00
Falling demand for business and leisure travel is causing a marked decline in air fares, with UK fares to North America declining by nearly a half, according to American Express.
Air fares peaked earlier this year as a result of rising oil costs. But the slowing global economy has caused that to reverse.
The lowest economy class fares in Europe, the Middle East and Africa fell on average by 12.5 per cent in April to June compared with the first quarter, with long-haul fares down more than a quarter.
But UK fares suffered the sharpest falls, with the lowest economy fares down by an average of 20.2 per cent, including a 49 per cent fall in fares to North America and a 22 per cent decline in fares to Japan, Asia-Pacific and Australia.
Amex's twice-yearly Business Travel Monitor reveals the extent to which air prices have yo-yoed in the first six months of 2008. Economy fares rose on average by 7.1 per cent in January to March, including a 15.5 per cent rise from the EMEA region to North America. In the first quarter, the lowest economy fares in the UK rose by 11.3 per cent, and standard business fares were up by 6.2 per cent.
The volatile fares have added to the strains in the airline industry.
Joakim Johansson of Amex said: "Trading conditions for airlines have become increasingly difficult in the first half of the year, and 24 airlines filed for bankruptcy in the period, just under half of which were based in Europe."
Amex says increased competition on transatlantic routes created by the launch of Open Skies on April 1 is driving down prices on business class fares. Since April, average business class fares have fallen 25 per cent for London to Newark, and 24 per cent for London to New York's JFK.
London business class fares to Los Angeles and Seattle are down 9 per cent.
On a year-on-year basis, the cheapest economy fares are down 10.9 per cent and standard business fares have fallen 4.3 per cent.
Hotel rates in Europe, the Middle East and Africa have also fallen over the second quarter compared with the first. Average daily rates in 41 out of 48 cities in the region rose 6.9 per cent year on year in January to March, but by June, average falls of 3.6 per cent were being recorded in 30 cities.
The euro's strength has caused demand for hotel rooms in Europe from international visitors to tumble and forced prices down. In Paris, hotel prices fell 37 per cent in the second quarter while those in Rome fell 32.4 per cent. London was down 7.7 per cent in the second quarter, and other financial centres suffering were Frankfurt, Edinburgh and Geneva.
"The European hotel market is entering a new phase, with slower demand and lower rates," said Amex's Karen Penney. "After years of strong growth, our analysis shows that rates paid by Amex customers are decreasing in many core European destination cities."
Easyjet warns of tough times ahead
By Toby Shelley
Published: September 17 2008 09:01 | Last updated: September 17 2008 18:48
EasyJet has warned that the strength of the euro and a worsening consumer environment in the UK would slow the strong gains in revenue per seat it had achieved over the summer.
The low-cost carrier, commenting in the light of failures among rival aircraft operators such as Zoom and XL, estimated the industry faced a reduction in capacity of between 2 and 4 per cent over the winter. But it said conditions remained too volatile for it to forecast how that reduced capacity would help its efforts to protect yields on its own flights.
Revenue per seat at EasyJet rose about 15 per cent in the second half. But faced with high fuel costs, adverse currency movements and a worsening economic climate, EasyJet will only modestly increase the number of seats it offers over the winter, as it attempts to defend margins.
For the next financial year, EasyJet said it had hedged 48 per cent of its fuel requirements at $1,225 a tonne, a sharp increase in volume from the 28 per cent it had hedged by late July, and at a lower price. It has also hedged 70 per cent of its dollar requirement at $1.96 to the pound and 80 per cent of its anticipated euro surplus at €1.24 to the pound.
The airline first warned in March that full-year profits would be lower, then analysts downgraded their profits estimates by a quarter. When the company suggested in July the fall would be about 40 per cent, it slipped 10 per cent.
Rival Irish low-cost carrier Ryanair has also seen strong passenger figures but serious erosion in its profitability. It has said it could fall into a full-year loss for the first time in 11 years.
EasyJet shares fell 8¼p to close at 350p on Wednesday.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
Ppruners are rightly - IMHO - complaining about the City's Banking practices, including short-selling; others are pointing out that the absurd house-price bubble had to burst at some point; and it's probably true to say that the decision by OPEC to reduce oil supply is out of our hands. But taken in isolation, can we not work around each of these problems?
And is it not fair comment to say that the media's 'doom and gloom' way of reporting all news (they've never reported good news with a fraction of the enthusiasm of bad news) is now worsening the situation vis-a-vis the 'recession'?
And is it not fair comment to say that the media's 'doom and gloom' way of reporting all news (they've never reported good news with a fraction of the enthusiasm of bad news) is now worsening the situation vis-a-vis the 'recession'?
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[putting head above parapet and preparing to be shot]
Guys,
Whilst there is a lot of sense and intelligent posting going on here and a fair amount of personal opinion masquerading as knowledge [speaking also from 10+ years in invesment banking world - latterly Reuters, formerly Barclays Capital], this particular thread was supposed to be about a mythical upturn.
This has now turned into just about the most suicide worthy thread I have ever read. Do ANY of you think there is any advanced training stage wannabe out there who is not aware of the current predicament?
This thread seems to have become about finding the biggest, deepest most painful cut you can find on any given wannabe and applying an industrial sized handful of salt to it, rubbing it in with some undiluted surgical spirit for good measure.
What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].
How about trying to find a little compassion for those that are being swept up by this maelstrom and will be utterly boned. How about simply stopping trying to ram it further down anyone elses throat. Congratulations, you were right. I hope that it makes you feel better....now can we get back to what this forum - if not necessarily this post - is supposed to be about.
P.S. I'm not even talking so much about me...my course was paid for by my savings so I have no debt and I have a damn good career to fall back on - but there are 18 year olds out there whose entire lives could be f***ed by this. It doesn't show you in a good light if you think this is funny, or deserved by a single one of them.
Guys,
Whilst there is a lot of sense and intelligent posting going on here and a fair amount of personal opinion masquerading as knowledge [speaking also from 10+ years in invesment banking world - latterly Reuters, formerly Barclays Capital], this particular thread was supposed to be about a mythical upturn.
This has now turned into just about the most suicide worthy thread I have ever read. Do ANY of you think there is any advanced training stage wannabe out there who is not aware of the current predicament?
This thread seems to have become about finding the biggest, deepest most painful cut you can find on any given wannabe and applying an industrial sized handful of salt to it, rubbing it in with some undiluted surgical spirit for good measure.
What we wannabes who are too advanced to back out now really need, from those with experience, is advice as to how best to stay current, where we might hope to find jobs, how to make the contacts which might best serve us when/if an upturn starts. Yet, what you're giving us is a self congratulatory lecture on how stupid we all were to start [in the best period of employment for years].
How about trying to find a little compassion for those that are being swept up by this maelstrom and will be utterly boned. How about simply stopping trying to ram it further down anyone elses throat. Congratulations, you were right. I hope that it makes you feel better....now can we get back to what this forum - if not necessarily this post - is supposed to be about.
P.S. I'm not even talking so much about me...my course was paid for by my savings so I have no debt and I have a damn good career to fall back on - but there are 18 year olds out there whose entire lives could be f***ed by this. It doesn't show you in a good light if you think this is funny, or deserved by a single one of them.
On the contrary. The media have constantly spun that the house price crash wouldn't happen, that there would be no recession and that the credit crunch was nearly over. And short selling is nothing new and nothing bad. Its just betting on a share price and in itself does nothing to cause that price to fall.
This is a once in a century event. It is highly plausible that it will be worse for Wannabes than the Sept11th or the 1991 recession was. Simply make whatever plans suit this new reality and your personal circumstance.
For all I know a total drought for unsecured lending may result in a total drought of low hour pilots and thus if you time things correctly you could have your pick of a first job if you can afford to train without debt. That timing is the tricky bit.
I doubt its any time soon.
Good luck,
WWW
This is a once in a century event. It is highly plausible that it will be worse for Wannabes than the Sept11th or the 1991 recession was. Simply make whatever plans suit this new reality and your personal circumstance.
For all I know a total drought for unsecured lending may result in a total drought of low hour pilots and thus if you time things correctly you could have your pick of a first job if you can afford to train without debt. That timing is the tricky bit.
I doubt its any time soon.
Good luck,
WWW
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Just read this article: FT.com / Columnists / Martin Wolf - How to meet the dangers facing Britain
"...The UK should not want housing finance to behave as it did in the years leading up to August 2007 ever again..."
Maybe not the crux of the bigger picture and certainly the article isn't going to magically solve our problems but I have to agree wholeheartedly with the sentiments above.
Mrs and I are both qualified lawyers and the client she dealt with the other day was the perfect example of reckless lending.
I'm training (pilot), sh*t scared but thankfully not in debt to any financial institution to do it.
"...The UK should not want housing finance to behave as it did in the years leading up to August 2007 ever again..."
Maybe not the crux of the bigger picture and certainly the article isn't going to magically solve our problems but I have to agree wholeheartedly with the sentiments above.
Mrs and I are both qualified lawyers and the client she dealt with the other day was the perfect example of reckless lending.
I'm training (pilot), sh*t scared but thankfully not in debt to any financial institution to do it.
Last edited by thefunky1; 18th Sep 2008 at 10:06.
In the same article:
"Final “do not”: do not panic. The UK economy ought to be able to get through this crisis without a recession as deep as those of the early 1980s and 1990s. Much of the heavy weight of the crisis is, fortunately, falling on the broad shoulders of the US government. The British government merely needs to deal with the local difficulties. These will be many. But they will surely be manageable."
"Final “do not”: do not panic. The UK economy ought to be able to get through this crisis without a recession as deep as those of the early 1980s and 1990s. Much of the heavy weight of the crisis is, fortunately, falling on the broad shoulders of the US government. The British government merely needs to deal with the local difficulties. These will be many. But they will surely be manageable."