Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Well,… a bit of positive news today, lets hope it keeps going in the right direction.
It kind of shows just where the armchair economists on this site are so wrong, including the adamant claims that oil would be at $200 by now!!
Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.
That could never be allowed to happen, and governments and financial leaders have to do something to rescue the situation and protect their arses no matter how inept the may be!
There will indeed be an upturn, but I suspect that no-one here is qualified to say what the future holds and when, let's just wait and see.
The advice to slow down training is however sound. Easier to slow down then speed up if things get better than to find yourself qualified in a market with no potential for employment.
It kind of shows just where the armchair economists on this site are so wrong, including the adamant claims that oil would be at $200 by now!!
Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.
That could never be allowed to happen, and governments and financial leaders have to do something to rescue the situation and protect their arses no matter how inept the may be!
There will indeed be an upturn, but I suspect that no-one here is qualified to say what the future holds and when, let's just wait and see.
The advice to slow down training is however sound. Easier to slow down then speed up if things get better than to find yourself qualified in a market with no potential for employment.
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It kind of shows just where the armchair economists on this site are so wrong, including the adamant claims that oil would be at $200 by now!! Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.
You can get a fairly unsensationalised view of how things are from the FT on line which is free of charge (just delete the contents your cookies folder before going onto the site each time other wise you will be limited to 3 articles).
The good news is the sun is shining this week end and it looks like a great day to be flying
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Interesting events... leaves me scratching my head to see where the Fed etc is going to get the c$1trn they may need to dig themselves out of this mess.... 
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ChrisLKKB
I find that a hard one. No one really knows the full extent of the debt or how risky it is. To say the fed could make on it, imho is highly speculative as we don't even know how the fed plan will work as yet.
Grass strip basher
I don't think the fed will actually put cash into the system, but more likely to draw up a set of guarantees in case of defaults. I think they have already been doing this without much success, so they may want direct control of the 'toxic' debts in exchange for their support. I do agree it is a head scratcher.
The record increase in the FTSE on Friday may be a mixed blessing, the correction may have been overcooked. I also take it as an indicator of how deep the UK financial sector is involved with high risk investments. Still, good news to see the FTSE going back up.
I find that a hard one. No one really knows the full extent of the debt or how risky it is. To say the fed could make on it, imho is highly speculative as we don't even know how the fed plan will work as yet.
Grass strip basher
I don't think the fed will actually put cash into the system, but more likely to draw up a set of guarantees in case of defaults. I think they have already been doing this without much success, so they may want direct control of the 'toxic' debts in exchange for their support. I do agree it is a head scratcher.
The record increase in the FTSE on Friday may be a mixed blessing, the correction may have been overcooked. I also take it as an indicator of how deep the UK financial sector is involved with high risk investments. Still, good news to see the FTSE going back up.
Oooh Whoopee - the FTSE is back to 5300. A full thousand points down on where I shorted it just 13 weeks ago. I'd keep the champagne corked if I were you.
Just as in 1980 we will eventually see that even the Fed runs out of the ability to borrow money. By committing trillions of tax payer dollars, the plan will save commercial and investment banks from certain bankruptcy. The losses baked into the mortgage products that the Fed will now buy, which Wall Street has been reluctant to even estimate, will now be borne wholly by taxpayers. Therefore the global mass exodus from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt is about to begin.
Your savings will be safe. Ravaged by eye watering inflation. But safe.
Anyway.
The forum can afford one thread discussing the macroeconomic turbulence being experienced by Western world. If it doesn't interest you or you think it doesn't help you then - radical idea - don't read it. Go start your own thread on 100 Top Tips To Get A First Job with my absolute blessing.
There is only one tip that you really needed and that was the one I was giving over a year ago. Delay training, avoid debt, time your entry to the job market based on a major 1991 recession.
I have PM's from people thanking me because they did follow this advice. Which is nice. I have comments here asking me to shut up because I'm not offering advice to people who ignored my earlier advice..
Well I've got no advice to offer. There are no jobs. Alitalia is about to dump THOUSANDS of jet pilots onto the EU pilot market which is already totally stagnant. Nobody is hiring and nobody is going to be hiring.
You either can manage your debt and keep your license alive and wait for X years or you write off your investment and forget your dream.
That's the bottom line.
Sorry,
WWW
Just as in 1980 we will eventually see that even the Fed runs out of the ability to borrow money. By committing trillions of tax payer dollars, the plan will save commercial and investment banks from certain bankruptcy. The losses baked into the mortgage products that the Fed will now buy, which Wall Street has been reluctant to even estimate, will now be borne wholly by taxpayers. Therefore the global mass exodus from the U.S. dollar and Treasury debt is about to begin.
Your savings will be safe. Ravaged by eye watering inflation. But safe.
Anyway.
The forum can afford one thread discussing the macroeconomic turbulence being experienced by Western world. If it doesn't interest you or you think it doesn't help you then - radical idea - don't read it. Go start your own thread on 100 Top Tips To Get A First Job with my absolute blessing.
There is only one tip that you really needed and that was the one I was giving over a year ago. Delay training, avoid debt, time your entry to the job market based on a major 1991 recession.
I have PM's from people thanking me because they did follow this advice. Which is nice. I have comments here asking me to shut up because I'm not offering advice to people who ignored my earlier advice..
Well I've got no advice to offer. There are no jobs. Alitalia is about to dump THOUSANDS of jet pilots onto the EU pilot market which is already totally stagnant. Nobody is hiring and nobody is going to be hiring.
You either can manage your debt and keep your license alive and wait for X years or you write off your investment and forget your dream.
That's the bottom line.
Sorry,
WWW
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I agree with WWW.
A couple of weeks ago I thought WWW was talking a load of
about the markets. I wasn't expecting it to get this bad, the one day I wake up and Zoom is gone, then a few local travel agents go then XL and now a couple of European airlines are going.
As a wanna be who was hoping to start the training full time I've decided to just hour build and enjoy the flying for the time being until the market calms a bit, then I can start look to invest money into the training.
A couple of weeks ago I thought WWW was talking a load of
about the markets. I wasn't expecting it to get this bad, the one day I wake up and Zoom is gone, then a few local travel agents go then XL and now a couple of European airlines are going.As a wanna be who was hoping to start the training full time I've decided to just hour build and enjoy the flying for the time being until the market calms a bit, then I can start look to invest money into the training.
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Originally Posted by spinnaker
I find that a hard one. No one really knows the full extent of the debt or how risky it is. To say the fed could make on it, imho is highly speculative as we don't even know how the fed plan will work as yet.
Originally Posted by spinnaker
The record increase in the FTSE on Friday may be a mixed blessing, the correction may have been overcooked. I also take it as an indicator of how deep the UK financial sector is involved with high risk investments. Still, good news to see the FTSE going back up.
Originally Posted by WWW
Your savings will be safe. Ravaged by eye watering inflation. But safe.
Originally Posted by WWW
The forum can afford one thread discussing the macroeconomic turbulence being experienced by Western world. If it doesn't interest you or you think it doesn't help you then - radical idea - don't read it. Go start your own thread on 100 Top Tips To Get A First Job with my absolute blessing.
After all, this a thread about the upturn in the aviation industry which is ultimately reliant on the up turn in the economy, in the absence of any signs of upturn in the aviation industry, why shouldn't we be discussing the economy ? Anyway, it seems like the girls have had their paddies now, stomped their feet and walked off to discuss what they consider to be more important matters. (didn't some airlines used to ask questions on current economics or at least questions linked to economics in the interview at one time ?)Personally I think WWWs predictions are completely rational and worryingly accurate, I wish i'd had his advice several years ago+. It's clear to me who here will go the distance and who will burn out in the absense of any recruitment over the next few years and I wish them the best of luck!.
Last edited by ChrisLKKB; 20th Sep 2008 at 17:16.
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ChrisLKKB
1. I agree, that given your example, the fed could make money and it would be certainly long term. However, I assume that would then involve hard cash. When that happens on a too large a scale, the effectiveness of a central bank diminishes to a dangerous level, unless they were to create more 'new money' from this 'old debt' and government raises money from tax. We shall see during the next week.
2. The stock market is a difficult one. In normal circumstances it works fine as a free market, but now is not normal, and the city, London/New York now has a track record of getting it wrong, or have they? Last year I was looking at where money was going as the sub prime was disappearing down the tubes, fund managers were looking to make up their losses. Well, some of that money went on oil speculation, we saw the effect of that. At the same time the sub prime was going bad, new investments were being drawn up by some of the biggest players in the game and some of these investments were being hatched outside of the regulated banking system, these investments are based upon debt and risk, and this is where most of the money has been going. There was talk of big involvement from the UK, but because it is done in the unregulated world of finance, its almost impossible to tell who and how much is involved. This might explain the recent run on HBOS shares. I saw one report on BBC News 24 that said that there was no untoward increase in the interest in short selling for HBOS. If that's the case, why the run on a well financed bank? What was being talked about between fund managers and brokers? Maybe the city did get it right. If they did, then that exposure still exists and further intervention will be necessary.
Your words "Greed isn't good imo it just makes people miserable." ....and that is a good summary of what I have just written. Its about greed.
2. The stock market is a difficult one. In normal circumstances it works fine as a free market, but now is not normal, and the city, London/New York now has a track record of getting it wrong, or have they? Last year I was looking at where money was going as the sub prime was disappearing down the tubes, fund managers were looking to make up their losses. Well, some of that money went on oil speculation, we saw the effect of that. At the same time the sub prime was going bad, new investments were being drawn up by some of the biggest players in the game and some of these investments were being hatched outside of the regulated banking system, these investments are based upon debt and risk, and this is where most of the money has been going. There was talk of big involvement from the UK, but because it is done in the unregulated world of finance, its almost impossible to tell who and how much is involved. This might explain the recent run on HBOS shares. I saw one report on BBC News 24 that said that there was no untoward increase in the interest in short selling for HBOS. If that's the case, why the run on a well financed bank? What was being talked about between fund managers and brokers? Maybe the city did get it right. If they did, then that exposure still exists and further intervention will be necessary.
Your words "Greed isn't good imo it just makes people miserable." ....and that is a good summary of what I have just written. Its about greed.
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WWW makes sense and always had. Taking a view based on one day is just nuts. Look at the trend, it is bad. There will be days that flatter to decieve.
Mortgage rates are already going up agin and will likely continue to be higher.
For lenders the rquirement will be about high quality lending. That will be the price the regulators and governments will require. No more flaky lending.
So out go sub prime mortgages, out will go lending for small business start ups out will go lending to fund career development in oversubscribed industries. (Unless back by parents too daft to know better and they put the family home on the line)
Mortgage rates are already going up agin and will likely continue to be higher.
For lenders the rquirement will be about high quality lending. That will be the price the regulators and governments will require. No more flaky lending.
So out go sub prime mortgages, out will go lending for small business start ups out will go lending to fund career development in oversubscribed industries. (Unless back by parents too daft to know better and they put the family home on the line)
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Yes, a lot of what WWW and his fan club have been subscribing to is,…on the face of it, absolutely logical and understandable, if,… we were in a free fall situation where governments were to allow the World’s economy to go into freefall and melt down.
As I have believed for a long while, mortgage rate restting will cause many more months of turmoil, and the AIG situation was simply one step in finding the bottom of the market (and finding out exactly who the suckers were who bought the toxic mortgage securities from the banks in the first place).
As in 1988-1992, when the US government was unable to bail out some banks such as Drexel, but worked through toxic assets in the Resolution Trust Corp (Resolution Trust Corporation - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia), this correction and recession will be painful - but hopefully not too long.
Nobody is predicting the permanent meltdown of the financial system - there are many proven strategies that have not so far melted down, but that were proved to the limit in previous recessions. This again shall be the same, as sub-prime mortgages will find their natural limit, resurrect, and aid the economy's growth.
As for wannabes, the advice - that has been consistent here - is to wait, and have a backup plan in place. You won't get hired in many places this year or next, but as reddo says, persistence will pay off, and there is no point in rushing through an expensive course to find that what we have said here holds true.
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Not looking good for Alitalia
Not sure how many pilots they employ (hundreds I would have thought) but they look (finally after years of losses) to be going the way of XL..... this is from Reuters
ROME, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Alitalia's <AZPIa.MI> special
administrator will make a last-ditch attempt to sell Italy's
loss-making national airline on Monday by public tender before
calling in the liquidators after a failed rescue bid.
Alitalia faces liquidation in a matter of days after a plan
to rescue the carrier by Italian investors collapsed last week
when unions refused to accept its conditions. Flights continued
as normal on the weekend but could be grounded in a week's time.
With Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who made an election
promise to rescue the airline, acknowledging no foreign airline
was about to step in and that Alitalia could be doomed to
bankruptcy, the auction appears a mere formality.
"We will proceed with a public request (for offers)," the
special administrator, Augusto Fantozzi, told Il Messagero daily
in comments published on Sunday. "It will formalise what I have
been doing -- without any results so far despite all my efforts
-- regarding the main assets."
Suffering from the high fuel prices and an economic downturn
that have hit the airline sector globally, Alitalia has been on
the brink of collapse for years as political interference and
labour unrest bled it of cash and caused it to pile up debt.
NO OFFERS
Berlusconi opposed the previous centre-left government's bid
to sell the state's 49.9 percent stake, including an offer from
Air France-KLM <AIRF.PA>, saying it must stay in Italian hands.
The media mogul returned to power in May promising to rescue
it and used his influence to rally 16 business groups in the CAI
consortium. But CAI withdrew its offer last week after pilots
and cabin crew refused to accept job cuts and new contracts.
The government rules out further state aid or, as some
leftists propose, the renationalisation of Alitalia. Italy is
already in trouble with the European Commission over a 300
million euro ($435.2 million) loan to keep the airline flying.
"There is no possibility of another rescue bid so it could
be that our Alitalia is heading towards bankruptcy procedures,"
Berlusconi said on Saturday.
Fantozzi meets civil aviation authorities on Monday to see
if Alitalia can retain its operating licence, and he must then
decide on announcing the public tender for Alitalia's assets.
The authority says that if there is no feasible rescue plan,
Alitalia's planes will be grounded within a week to 10 days.
Fantozzi reiterated he that he had received no offers for
the airline operation, only some interest in heavy maintenance,
cargo, handling and catering units and the call centre.
He had again contacted Air France <AIRF.PA>, Lufthansa
<LHAG.DE> and British Airways <BAY.L> about buying Alitalia or
its assets, but said: "Nobody has stepped forward."
Transport Minister Altero Matteoli made it clear that unless
unions changed their minds about CAI's conditions, "in a few
days we will ground Alitalia's planes as the law requires".
ROME, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Alitalia's <AZPIa.MI> special
administrator will make a last-ditch attempt to sell Italy's
loss-making national airline on Monday by public tender before
calling in the liquidators after a failed rescue bid.
Alitalia faces liquidation in a matter of days after a plan
to rescue the carrier by Italian investors collapsed last week
when unions refused to accept its conditions. Flights continued
as normal on the weekend but could be grounded in a week's time.
With Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, who made an election
promise to rescue the airline, acknowledging no foreign airline
was about to step in and that Alitalia could be doomed to
bankruptcy, the auction appears a mere formality.
"We will proceed with a public request (for offers)," the
special administrator, Augusto Fantozzi, told Il Messagero daily
in comments published on Sunday. "It will formalise what I have
been doing -- without any results so far despite all my efforts
-- regarding the main assets."
Suffering from the high fuel prices and an economic downturn
that have hit the airline sector globally, Alitalia has been on
the brink of collapse for years as political interference and
labour unrest bled it of cash and caused it to pile up debt.
NO OFFERS
Berlusconi opposed the previous centre-left government's bid
to sell the state's 49.9 percent stake, including an offer from
Air France-KLM <AIRF.PA>, saying it must stay in Italian hands.
The media mogul returned to power in May promising to rescue
it and used his influence to rally 16 business groups in the CAI
consortium. But CAI withdrew its offer last week after pilots
and cabin crew refused to accept job cuts and new contracts.
The government rules out further state aid or, as some
leftists propose, the renationalisation of Alitalia. Italy is
already in trouble with the European Commission over a 300
million euro ($435.2 million) loan to keep the airline flying.
"There is no possibility of another rescue bid so it could
be that our Alitalia is heading towards bankruptcy procedures,"
Berlusconi said on Saturday.
Fantozzi meets civil aviation authorities on Monday to see
if Alitalia can retain its operating licence, and he must then
decide on announcing the public tender for Alitalia's assets.
The authority says that if there is no feasible rescue plan,
Alitalia's planes will be grounded within a week to 10 days.
Fantozzi reiterated he that he had received no offers for
the airline operation, only some interest in heavy maintenance,
cargo, handling and catering units and the call centre.
He had again contacted Air France <AIRF.PA>, Lufthansa
<LHAG.DE> and British Airways <BAY.L> about buying Alitalia or
its assets, but said: "Nobody has stepped forward."
Transport Minister Altero Matteoli made it clear that unless
unions changed their minds about CAI's conditions, "in a few
days we will ground Alitalia's planes as the law requires".
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Economics
Unfortunately I was studying for an MA in Economics when I should have been learning to fly and I hate to tell you guys the banking system and global finance is fundamentaly screwed. Don't worry though it doesn't need fixed; all we need is for bankers and investment types to come up with a new way of disguising risk and hiding losses and confidence will be restored for another 10 years or so.
Now with regards to flying; I reckon it will take me about 2 1/2 to 3 years to get my FATPL (modular route) and by then Airlines should be gagging for 34 year olds with a bit of life experience and not many hours???
What do you reckon guys am I mad or is this plan so crazy it might just work?
Now with regards to flying; I reckon it will take me about 2 1/2 to 3 years to get my FATPL (modular route) and by then Airlines should be gagging for 34 year olds with a bit of life experience and not many hours???
What do you reckon guys am I mad or is this plan so crazy it might just work?
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What do you reckon guys am I mad or is this plan so crazy it might just work?
No one knows. It's all a big risk and a gamble.
I still think oil prices in the long term are going to shoot right back up once the economy recovers. I think oil prices are the wild card.
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$22?
I thought it was $25! We were told the crash was cancelled and all was coming good.......doh.
You can't stick 3/4 trillion dollars on the books and not trash the currency surely?
Strap in it's going to be a bigeeeee......
I thought it was $25! We were told the crash was cancelled and all was coming good.......doh.
You can't stick 3/4 trillion dollars on the books and not trash the currency surely?
Strap in it's going to be a bigeeeee......
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