Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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200+ futura pilots 737 current and qualified looking for work, might take 18 months to absorb them into the current capacity before we get back to where we were yesterday.
70k Oxford + SSTR still looking like a good idea
70k Oxford + SSTR still looking like a good idea
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Well, you think oil at $100 a barrel, a North American recession and 1.47 Euro to the Dollar isn't going to have a negative impact on the European airline industry, and I think it will.
2. The European airline industry is not doing as bad as it looks:
The Association of European Airlines has released traffic and capacity data for its members in July 2008.
As the industry moved into its summer peak, the tempo of growth continued to slow, with a 1.2% overall increase in passenger traffic, down from 1.6% in June. An exceptional 7.9% decrease in Domestic markets – where some AEA members have implemented commercial restructuring programmes – contributed to the depressed figures but cross-border traffic in Europe, relatively buoyant through the first half of the year, slumped to plus 0.8%, a five-year low.
The North Atlantic traffic volume was unchanged from July 2007, a barely perceptible recovery from the 0.3% decrease recorded in June. Far Eastern traffic grew by 1.1% – again, a marginal improvement on the previous month’s figure.
Other, less-travelled, markets retained somewhat higher growth figures, with the South Atlantic and Europe-Middle East continuing to perform strongly with increases of 11.8% and 8.9% respectively.
With capacity continuing to grow at 3.5% overall, load factor development was discouraging, with decreases across all route groups except North Africa. Overall load factor was 1.8 percentage points down at 79.9%, the first time since 2004 that the July figure has fallen below 80%.
One more negative indicator to emerge from the July figures was the decrease of 1.2% in freight traffic, the first minus in this column since 2005, typically thought to be a leading indicator of future trends in passenger markets. Behind this figure lay a substantial drop of 4.7% in North Atlantic volume although the other major market, to/from the Far East, also showed a decrease, of 0.2%.
http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-030.pdf
The +/- 30 AEA airlines that are part of this survey have about 1500 aircraft altogether.
If capacity increased by 3.5% between July 2007 and July 2008, 52 new airliners have been added within these 30 airlines, good for around 550 new pilot jobs created within the past year.
These numbers do not include figures for the other 65 or so European airlines including Ryanair, Easyjet and Wizzair.
It looks like the South Atlantic market is doing well, so we shouldn't be worrying too much about our Spanish friends from Futura.
As the industry moved into its summer peak, the tempo of growth continued to slow, with a 1.2% overall increase in passenger traffic, down from 1.6% in June. An exceptional 7.9% decrease in Domestic markets – where some AEA members have implemented commercial restructuring programmes – contributed to the depressed figures but cross-border traffic in Europe, relatively buoyant through the first half of the year, slumped to plus 0.8%, a five-year low.
The North Atlantic traffic volume was unchanged from July 2007, a barely perceptible recovery from the 0.3% decrease recorded in June. Far Eastern traffic grew by 1.1% – again, a marginal improvement on the previous month’s figure.
Other, less-travelled, markets retained somewhat higher growth figures, with the South Atlantic and Europe-Middle East continuing to perform strongly with increases of 11.8% and 8.9% respectively.
With capacity continuing to grow at 3.5% overall, load factor development was discouraging, with decreases across all route groups except North Africa. Overall load factor was 1.8 percentage points down at 79.9%, the first time since 2004 that the July figure has fallen below 80%.
One more negative indicator to emerge from the July figures was the decrease of 1.2% in freight traffic, the first minus in this column since 2005, typically thought to be a leading indicator of future trends in passenger markets. Behind this figure lay a substantial drop of 4.7% in North Atlantic volume although the other major market, to/from the Far East, also showed a decrease, of 0.2%.
http://files.aea.be/News/PR/Pr08-030.pdf
The +/- 30 AEA airlines that are part of this survey have about 1500 aircraft altogether.
If capacity increased by 3.5% between July 2007 and July 2008, 52 new airliners have been added within these 30 airlines, good for around 550 new pilot jobs created within the past year.
These numbers do not include figures for the other 65 or so European airlines including Ryanair, Easyjet and Wizzair.
It looks like the South Atlantic market is doing well, so we shouldn't be worrying too much about our Spanish friends from Futura.
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Perhaps we should start putting posts like
in here, http://www.pprune.org/professional-p...n-upon-us.html the down turn, thread to avoid upsetting the polyannas on the forum. They can look at it now and then for a reality check, hopefully before they sign on the dotted line for a 60k loan or they can choose to ignore it to avoid bursting their bubbles. 
200+ futura pilots 737 current and qualified looking for work, might take 18 months to absorb them into the current capacity before we get back to where we were yesterday.
I predict a three year recessionary period for the sector. 2012 being the ideal time to enter the pilot job seeking market. Start training in 2011.
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By your predictions then of starting in 2012 and not missing the boat, that means being qualified and cv's out by autumn of 2011. Bearing in mind application processe's for courses, organinsing fninances etc then people need to get their skates in about 6 months time.
Not really. A modular course can be done in 11 1/2 months and an Integrated in only slightly longer.
I think thoughts of boat missing ought to be suppressed until the tsunami has passed...
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I think thoughts of boat missing ought to be suppressed until the tsunami has passed...
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To be fair, I think we're really speaking about integrated training. According to OAA's info, the course minimum for integrated appears to be circa 65 weeks. Thats not including the application process, nor additional contingency time, nor holiday periods. Looks around 18 months, probably longer, from initial application to licence in hand and cv's out. If you are predicting that 2012 be the year of recruitment again then people need to be ready for interviews come autumn/winter of 2011.
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Of course when the airlines do start recruiting again, whether it be in 2012 or not, they will likely hoover up all those swimming in holding pools. The CTC hold pool (for one, and originally unheard of for the wings grads) is fast becoming Olympic sized. But I will be there with my freshly completed Modular Training battling it out with the rest of them!
To be fairer we're talking about both training structures. Integrated takes about 60 weeks - the 65 contains contingency. The application process for most courses only involves posting a cheque. You don't need and probably can't afford holidays.
There is no point having a fresh IR issued in Oct2011 if the first signs of jobs growth occurs in the following year. You'll be a rusty bucket by then.
Several schools will have gone bust and I doubt there will queues to get into those who remain.
Its only an opinion.
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There is no point having a fresh IR issued in Oct2011 if the first signs of jobs growth occurs in the following year. You'll be a rusty bucket by then.
Several schools will have gone bust and I doubt there will queues to get into those who remain.
Its only an opinion.
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The general thread seems to suggest we're speaking about integrated, based on all those who shout about and poo poo anyone who dares suggest signing up on a course for 70k.
As for jobs, if its 2012(your prediction, not mine), then the bottom line is being prepared to start spring time of that year. Licence in hand by the end of 2011 is the place to be. Airlines will know their summer schedules by then.
As for guaranteing a place on an integrated course i'd be starting the ball rolling somewhere around 4 - 6 months minimum beforehand.
As for jobs, if its 2012(your prediction, not mine), then the bottom line is being prepared to start spring time of that year. Licence in hand by the end of 2011 is the place to be. Airlines will know their summer schedules by then.
As for guaranteing a place on an integrated course i'd be starting the ball rolling somewhere around 4 - 6 months minimum beforehand.
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Alternatively - if you're in a good job, remain employed and start training now via the modular route and aim to complete the training by March 2011. That way it may be possible to have zero debt, a fATPL and have a chance of employment. 
I'm 33 and just considering starting my PPL now. Who knows where it may lead.......
I'm 33 and just considering starting my PPL now. Who knows where it may lead.......
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I read that EU have decided that all airliners must pay CO2 tax in a few years (am I right?). That will give us a new recession 
.
Edit. I was right. Starting 2013.
European airlines angered by EU 'CO2 tax'
Quotes.
AEA:
"This decision is going to cost us 4.8 billion euros a year,"
"It all has to be compared with the 3.7 billion euros profit that our companies made in 2007, which was a very good year. And 2008 is looking quite different with the hike in fuel prices,"
.Edit. I was right. Starting 2013.
European airlines angered by EU 'CO2 tax'
Quotes.
AEA:
"This decision is going to cost us 4.8 billion euros a year,"
"It all has to be compared with the 3.7 billion euros profit that our companies made in 2007, which was a very good year. And 2008 is looking quite different with the hike in fuel prices,"
The general thread seems to suggest we're speaking about integrated, based on all those who shout about and poo poo anyone who dares suggest signing up on a course for 70k.
As for jobs, if its 2012(your prediction, not mine), then the bottom line is being prepared to start spring time of that year. Licence in hand by the end of 2011 is the place to be. Airlines will know their summer schedules by then.
As for guaranteing a place on an integrated course i'd be starting the ball rolling somewhere around 4 - 6 months minimum beforehand.
As for jobs, if its 2012(your prediction, not mine), then the bottom line is being prepared to start spring time of that year. Licence in hand by the end of 2011 is the place to be. Airlines will know their summer schedules by then.
As for guaranteing a place on an integrated course i'd be starting the ball rolling somewhere around 4 - 6 months minimum beforehand.
Nope. 70k for Integrated or 50k for Modular - either way its a lot of money. My predicition was that 2012 might be a year in which you enter the job hunting market by whichever route.
You can get a place on an Integrated course with 6 weeks notice NOW. The other side of the recession only the old timers will remember when you needed to put your name down 6 months in advance to get a course start date.
If its anything like previous recessions there will be people who are prompted into a long contemplated career change by the loss of their current job. Often armed with a bountiful redundancy cheque they will keep the flying training industry ticking over during the bust.
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Originally Posted by MIKECR
So when do you suggest then Chris that people should start training?
I'm doing my ATPLs again and i'm working on 3 years, maybe sitting the exams to be able to start flying again in spring 2011. There's nothing to stop anyone from studying the syllabus in the mean time, any updates which occur will be minimal.
I've got hold of some course notes and am studying them when I have time spare and i'll buy some up to date notes nearer the time, I wont be attending a groundschool although for anyone who is it certainly wont hurt if to know the material before attending ground school whether it's part of an intergrated or modular course.
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i find it hard to understand how people can put times on when to go training and advice wannabes of this, when the economy experts including Alistair Darling cant even put a date or time period for how long this crappy economic situation will last for...
Who knows it could be grand by this christmas or it could take 3, 4 , or 8 years....
at the end of the day when is the cheapist time to learn to fly exactly??????
((((remember that it will take over a year to train anyhow!!!!)))
Who knows it could be grand by this christmas or it could take 3, 4 , or 8 years....
at the end of the day when is the cheapist time to learn to fly exactly??????
((((remember that it will take over a year to train anyhow!!!!)))
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I was studying an integrated course during the last upswing. It was September 2004 and all the big boys announced they were opening up recruitment again after 3 years of all but closed doors. I was midway through the goundschool phase, so only 3 or 4 months into the course. The good times were around for many, many months (years even) after I finished my MCC.
If you are looking for previous precident to guide you when would be a good time to start an integrated or a full time structured modular course, why not wait until recruitment reopens and send your cheque off the next day?
Seems like a simple and sensible plan to me
HA HA HA!
If you are looking for previous precident to guide you when would be a good time to start an integrated or a full time structured modular course, why not wait until recruitment reopens and send your cheque off the next day?
Seems like a simple and sensible plan to me
the economy experts including Alistair Darling
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i know but sure thats what he calls himself.... aint it.... maybe ' big browe wod be better'
p.s... if you start to train in the next spell you could miss it altogether.....
"""doors closed"""
Its called a sine wave......
May as well spend a bad patch to train and be fresh of the 'oven' when it starts up...
There is no telling when the **** ends.....
p.s... if you start to train in the next spell you could miss it altogether.....
"""doors closed"""
Its called a sine wave......
May as well spend a bad patch to train and be fresh of the 'oven' when it starts up...
There is no telling when the **** ends.....
Last edited by Flightless Falcon; 9th Sep 2008 at 14:17.