Crisis
Thread Starter
Crisis
As close followers of this forum will have noted I have been becoming ever moe hawkish this last week on the issue of employment prospects for Wannabes.
I have to tell you all know that my more negative expectations are being met.
No airline has yet failed but with Virgin laying off well over 100 pilots that become somewhat academic. Inside BA people are talking of Pilots being layed off as the Classic fleet is phased out alongside the Heathrow 737's being grounded. IF this happens you could be looking at 400 pilots being surplus to requirements.
That and Virgin would satisfy all pilot recruitment needs from other UK airlines for at least 18 months.
Folks, its going to hell in a handcart at the moment. You never see a crisis until it is past you and it was the same in the early 90's with the Gulf War when everyone kept saying things wouldn't be too bad right up until the collapse of some very well known airlines...
Perhaps in a months time things will have settled down. Perhaps in a months time the West will be in all out war with half the Muslim nations.
I cannot in all good faith advise anybody to start ruinously expensive flight training at this time.
I really really hope things do not get as bad as I fear they might. For my own job as well as yours.
:-(
WWW
I have to tell you all know that my more negative expectations are being met.
No airline has yet failed but with Virgin laying off well over 100 pilots that become somewhat academic. Inside BA people are talking of Pilots being layed off as the Classic fleet is phased out alongside the Heathrow 737's being grounded. IF this happens you could be looking at 400 pilots being surplus to requirements.
That and Virgin would satisfy all pilot recruitment needs from other UK airlines for at least 18 months.
Folks, its going to hell in a handcart at the moment. You never see a crisis until it is past you and it was the same in the early 90's with the Gulf War when everyone kept saying things wouldn't be too bad right up until the collapse of some very well known airlines...
Perhaps in a months time things will have settled down. Perhaps in a months time the West will be in all out war with half the Muslim nations.
I cannot in all good faith advise anybody to start ruinously expensive flight training at this time.
I really really hope things do not get as bad as I fear they might. For my own job as well as yours.
:-(
WWW
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Don't be so pessimistic. After 28 years spent in Civil Aviation, I have known several crisis. I was in charge of 150 flight engineer cadets in 1984, the Air France management has told us that they did not see the cadets on board defore 1991. In order to boost the recruitment all the french flight engineers have taken leaves (not paid). Six months later, Air France was in the situation they need the day after all the cadets. My advice to the wannabes: a crisis cannot last a very long period; be ready for the rush which will end the crisis.
eaglet WB (also known as froggy) and my personal hello to www
eaglet WB (also known as froggy) and my personal hello to www
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Saw the Commerzbank aviation analyst on CNN today say the situation is the worst in the history of civil aviation and much worse than the gulf war.
Yesterday I was slightly pessimistic. Today I think there is a real chance of unemployment. Keep it in perspective though. You're still alive and you're not in the armed forces
Yesterday I was slightly pessimistic. Today I think there is a real chance of unemployment. Keep it in perspective though. You're still alive and you're not in the armed forces
Thread Starter
Yes I am repeating myself. Because I believe we are facing the biggest Wannabe crisis since 1991 - 5 year prior to PPRuNe.
WWW
WWW
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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WWW - Post's like this don't really help anyone!!Don't let that GO flight deck negativity get to you...
Firstly the BA rumours of grounding LHR's 737 fleet is cr@p, I mean, come on !!!
The Classic fleet has been planned to be phased out for a long time, being replaced by the 777.
Virgin are letting go 150/60 pilots and about 80 Flight Engineers, BA have not announced any pilot redundancies yet.
But I would say to anyone who asked me to put off starting any ATPL training for about 6 months then re-assess. Save the money and stay in employment. Thoses already in the system just carry on and get the licence issued. It may mean baggage handling/paper round or something for a while but so what....
It's all cyclic, when it comes around again the pilot shortage will be alot worse than it is now due to no-one training.
Hang-on in there guys, it may take 12 months, but when the recruitment starts again, there could be quite a choice!!
Firstly the BA rumours of grounding LHR's 737 fleet is cr@p, I mean, come on !!!
The Classic fleet has been planned to be phased out for a long time, being replaced by the 777.
Virgin are letting go 150/60 pilots and about 80 Flight Engineers, BA have not announced any pilot redundancies yet.
But I would say to anyone who asked me to put off starting any ATPL training for about 6 months then re-assess. Save the money and stay in employment. Thoses already in the system just carry on and get the licence issued. It may mean baggage handling/paper round or something for a while but so what....
It's all cyclic, when it comes around again the pilot shortage will be alot worse than it is now due to no-one training.
Hang-on in there guys, it may take 12 months, but when the recruitment starts again, there could be quite a choice!!
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THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A BETTER TIME THAN NOW TO BE A WANNABE. YOU HAVE NEVER HAD IT SO GOOD!!!!! PEOPLE AFTER FINISHING TRAINING ARE GETTING JET JOBS WITH ONLY 250HRS WITH MAJOR AIRLINES!
THERE ARE LOADS OF JOBS OUT THERE FOR YOU LOW HOUR JAA ATP PILOTS!!!!!
THERE ARE LOADS OF JOBS OUT THERE FOR YOU LOW HOUR JAA ATP PILOTS!!!!!
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Flyboy has obviously just got back from a two week potholing holiday in Outer Mongolia and has not yet watched the news......
I don't think you are over reacting WWW - this situation looks extremely serious. Unfortunately right now the average airline punter's perception of getting on an aeroplane equates to climbing into a cruise missile. Of course we all know that flying is safer than it was before with the new security measures in place but there has been a huge drop in bookings post last Tuesday. Add to that the huge cost of the new security measures and the expected increase in fuel prices over fears of war in the Middle East and you are looking at a pretty grave situation for the airline industry. It's looking worse than 1991 in my view because that was due largely to the decrease in consumer confidence and raised fuel prices - but at that point we had not seen passenger jets hijacked by maniacs and flown into civilian targets - there was merely a fear over possible terrorist attacks on particularly US airlines.
Still it's not all bad, Tesco are taking on 20,000 new staff..........
I don't think you are over reacting WWW - this situation looks extremely serious. Unfortunately right now the average airline punter's perception of getting on an aeroplane equates to climbing into a cruise missile. Of course we all know that flying is safer than it was before with the new security measures in place but there has been a huge drop in bookings post last Tuesday. Add to that the huge cost of the new security measures and the expected increase in fuel prices over fears of war in the Middle East and you are looking at a pretty grave situation for the airline industry. It's looking worse than 1991 in my view because that was due largely to the decrease in consumer confidence and raised fuel prices - but at that point we had not seen passenger jets hijacked by maniacs and flown into civilian targets - there was merely a fear over possible terrorist attacks on particularly US airlines.
Still it's not all bad, Tesco are taking on 20,000 new staff..........
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If there is one thing that is guaranteed to happen when these sorts of disasters occur, it is the proliferation of misinformed twaddle by people who really ought to know better.
There will obviously be some pain, however it will not affect all sectors of the industry- my loads have been high all week, and will continue to be so as long as businessmen need to travel. It is, of course, a different story in the leisure market.
Nobody really knows how this will turn out, it will probably take a month or so for it to become clear which way things will go. I suggest we all sit tight and wait a bit before making sweeping statements- some people may be making life decisions based on what they read here...
There will obviously be some pain, however it will not affect all sectors of the industry- my loads have been high all week, and will continue to be so as long as businessmen need to travel. It is, of course, a different story in the leisure market.
Nobody really knows how this will turn out, it will probably take a month or so for it to become clear which way things will go. I suggest we all sit tight and wait a bit before making sweeping statements- some people may be making life decisions based on what they read here...
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Well said Raw Data.
I'm presently sitting here in New Zealand wondering whether to pay the remaining balance of my ticket to the UK to complete my ATPL's and CPL/MEIR/MCC in Nov or to wait and see what happens over the next 6 months. Being so far away I tend to glean my info from Pprune and have had a few highs and lows over the past week re future prospects.
The ticket has to be fully paid for by the 28th of Sept so I've got a little over a week to decide. I hope I end up going 'cause I'm really looking forward to the Gatbash. Might be rather subdued now though.
It's like jumping into a big black hole with no idea what is at the bottom.
All the best guys and gals.
FK
I'm presently sitting here in New Zealand wondering whether to pay the remaining balance of my ticket to the UK to complete my ATPL's and CPL/MEIR/MCC in Nov or to wait and see what happens over the next 6 months. Being so far away I tend to glean my info from Pprune and have had a few highs and lows over the past week re future prospects.
The ticket has to be fully paid for by the 28th of Sept so I've got a little over a week to decide. I hope I end up going 'cause I'm really looking forward to the Gatbash. Might be rather subdued now though.
It's like jumping into a big black hole with no idea what is at the bottom.
All the best guys and gals.
FK
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WWW
Just how many threads are you going to start telling would-be pilots that things look bad???
I think it is fair to say that we have all been shattered by recent events, and can see what has happened as a result, on the stock markets.. and beyond.
Yes, things look pretty ****ty at the moment and yes, you have ‘made it’ before the dreadful events of last week, but for ##### sake lets not kill off the idea of aviation as a career.
If we didn’t know you better one could be excused for thinking that this was a case of ‘I’m all right, and you guys are in the **** !’. I think we all know that that is not the case.
Lets be positive. Air transportation IS the future, and life will go on,… hopefully soon.
We have all, in whatever walk of life, been devastated by recent events, but lets look to the future which can, in the medium to long term, only look good for aviation as a whole.
Just how many threads are you going to start telling would-be pilots that things look bad???
I think it is fair to say that we have all been shattered by recent events, and can see what has happened as a result, on the stock markets.. and beyond.
Yes, things look pretty ****ty at the moment and yes, you have ‘made it’ before the dreadful events of last week, but for ##### sake lets not kill off the idea of aviation as a career.
If we didn’t know you better one could be excused for thinking that this was a case of ‘I’m all right, and you guys are in the **** !’. I think we all know that that is not the case.
Lets be positive. Air transportation IS the future, and life will go on,… hopefully soon.
We have all, in whatever walk of life, been devastated by recent events, but lets look to the future which can, in the medium to long term, only look good for aviation as a whole.
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I think you may be being just a bit harsh on WWW.
Just how bad does it have to get before its OK to start sounding the alarm?
Things were dodgy before the disaster last week, but we really are playing a different game now. Last week it was a case of what if weaker airlines go bust, now I think its what do we do when the weak airlines start to fail, just look at the position Aer Lingus has been put in by this tragedy.
WWW is just telling it how he sees it, but I do appreciate how important it is that we all wait and see how things play out.
As for people making life decisions on what they read here- I really doubt that anyone makes decisions on that scale without consulting numerous other sources first-or at least I hope they don't!
Nobody should panic or make rash decisions right now, but at the same time lets not get complacent or leave too much up to fate.
Not a nice time to be a wannabe.
Stay Safe
Eno
Just how bad does it have to get before its OK to start sounding the alarm?
Things were dodgy before the disaster last week, but we really are playing a different game now. Last week it was a case of what if weaker airlines go bust, now I think its what do we do when the weak airlines start to fail, just look at the position Aer Lingus has been put in by this tragedy.
WWW is just telling it how he sees it, but I do appreciate how important it is that we all wait and see how things play out.
As for people making life decisions on what they read here- I really doubt that anyone makes decisions on that scale without consulting numerous other sources first-or at least I hope they don't!
Nobody should panic or make rash decisions right now, but at the same time lets not get complacent or leave too much up to fate.
Not a nice time to be a wannabe.
Stay Safe
Eno
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Clear Prop
I didn't read WW's post like that at all. Seems to me he's being brutally honest. Both WW and Scroggs provide the occasional required reality checks in this forum, and I would think most Wannabes are grateful for their input and advice in this regard.
The fact is the world is teatering on all out war - Western Economies are in danger of collapse, and the aviation industry is looking grim to say the least. Not a good time to be commencing very expensive training in a inter/trans continental industry one would think.
On the flipside - history has shown that sometimes seemingly negative occurences sometimes have a way of turning themselves into positives in the medium to long term.
As a previous poster said - this may actually create a shortage in 3 - 5 years time due to a lot a people deciding to pursue a career elsewhere because of the current situation.
At the end of the day - who knows - Nobody can say for certain the final outcome of the barbarity in the U.S. or the industry status over the next 5 years. I do however think it is fair to say that in the short term the industry is not a pretty picture.
I for one am seriously reconsidering my options, but will wait to see what pans out over the next few months. There may be light at the end of the tunnel.
Adjunct - Just read on a separate thread that Scroggs himself has just been made jobless - I think that pretty well sums it up.
[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Dundee ]
I didn't read WW's post like that at all. Seems to me he's being brutally honest. Both WW and Scroggs provide the occasional required reality checks in this forum, and I would think most Wannabes are grateful for their input and advice in this regard.
The fact is the world is teatering on all out war - Western Economies are in danger of collapse, and the aviation industry is looking grim to say the least. Not a good time to be commencing very expensive training in a inter/trans continental industry one would think.
On the flipside - history has shown that sometimes seemingly negative occurences sometimes have a way of turning themselves into positives in the medium to long term.
As a previous poster said - this may actually create a shortage in 3 - 5 years time due to a lot a people deciding to pursue a career elsewhere because of the current situation.
At the end of the day - who knows - Nobody can say for certain the final outcome of the barbarity in the U.S. or the industry status over the next 5 years. I do however think it is fair to say that in the short term the industry is not a pretty picture.
I for one am seriously reconsidering my options, but will wait to see what pans out over the next few months. There may be light at the end of the tunnel.
Adjunct - Just read on a separate thread that Scroggs himself has just been made jobless - I think that pretty well sums it up.
[ 19 September 2001: Message edited by: Dundee ]
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I'd like to add a little ray of hope here:
My story was that I got my BCPL and instructor rating in 1991. Within a month or two of Air Europe and Dan Air going belly up. After two years of doing about three hours instructing a week, and no prospect of any movement in the industry, I decided to step off the ladder and start afresh away from aviation on the other side of the world.(That's another story)
ANYWAY when I returned home for a visit (honeymoon actually) after five years, I spent some happy times in jump seats chatting to former colleagues and students of mine while they flew turboprops from the left hand seat. Many old friends I didn't catch up with because they were away flying jets.
So...Hang in there!!!! If I hadn't given up so easily, I'd be flying the big jets now too (as it is I actually prefer my little Cherokees in CAVOK Australia)
Hang in there but don't put all your eggs in the aviation basket. Have another way of keeping body and soul together because otherwise at times like this you'll become broke and bitter and no use to anyone.
Here in Aus our second airline has just gone belly up so it's pretty grim here too. But it will turn around, it alwys does.
"Pollyanna Foxtrot India"
My story was that I got my BCPL and instructor rating in 1991. Within a month or two of Air Europe and Dan Air going belly up. After two years of doing about three hours instructing a week, and no prospect of any movement in the industry, I decided to step off the ladder and start afresh away from aviation on the other side of the world.(That's another story)
ANYWAY when I returned home for a visit (honeymoon actually) after five years, I spent some happy times in jump seats chatting to former colleagues and students of mine while they flew turboprops from the left hand seat. Many old friends I didn't catch up with because they were away flying jets.
So...Hang in there!!!! If I hadn't given up so easily, I'd be flying the big jets now too (as it is I actually prefer my little Cherokees in CAVOK Australia)
Hang in there but don't put all your eggs in the aviation basket. Have another way of keeping body and soul together because otherwise at times like this you'll become broke and bitter and no use to anyone.
Here in Aus our second airline has just gone belly up so it's pretty grim here too. But it will turn around, it alwys does.
"Pollyanna Foxtrot India"
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While the situation right now is pretty dire, and may well get worse temporarily, there will be a recovery eventually.
If you are about to invest in an integrated course, and you have the facility to delay for a while, I'd wait for six months or so to see how things pan out. If you're starting the modular route you have less need to do anything precipitate, but I'd time your graduation for about 18 months to 2 years from now, by which time we should have passed rock bottom.
If you're already in training, you're likely to face a considerable period of job-searching when you finish. No-one will think the worse of you if you decide to go back to your old career to wait out the bad times.
Crisis? You bet, but it will pass. My kids are depending on it!
If you are about to invest in an integrated course, and you have the facility to delay for a while, I'd wait for six months or so to see how things pan out. If you're starting the modular route you have less need to do anything precipitate, but I'd time your graduation for about 18 months to 2 years from now, by which time we should have passed rock bottom.
If you're already in training, you're likely to face a considerable period of job-searching when you finish. No-one will think the worse of you if you decide to go back to your old career to wait out the bad times.
Crisis? You bet, but it will pass. My kids are depending on it!
Thread Starter
In my defence:
a) All I have advised here is suspending making any decision on training for 3 or 6 months.
b) For anyone questioning my motives I invite you to deal with a tidal wave of email and the fraught phone calls I am fielding from Wannabes terrified that their dream is becoming a nightmare in front of their eyes.
c) I am making lots of posts - you cannot seriously tell me that this is not the biggest issue PPRuNe Wannabes has ever been around for, 1996 - 2001 will be seen as the good years :-(
I am pleased that BEA's loads are holding up RD. So are Go's. Perhaps though those tickets were sold prior to the WTC. And we have not reached the serious UK recession yet... I'm certainly not getting into any chicken counting competitions.
I know all about the argument that it is possible to train in the worst of times so as to be ready for the upturn - Danny did just that in 1991. However it is not an ideal strategy for a younger Wannabe fincancing themselves of debt and the re-mortgage of the family home.
WWW
a) All I have advised here is suspending making any decision on training for 3 or 6 months.
b) For anyone questioning my motives I invite you to deal with a tidal wave of email and the fraught phone calls I am fielding from Wannabes terrified that their dream is becoming a nightmare in front of their eyes.
c) I am making lots of posts - you cannot seriously tell me that this is not the biggest issue PPRuNe Wannabes has ever been around for, 1996 - 2001 will be seen as the good years :-(
I am pleased that BEA's loads are holding up RD. So are Go's. Perhaps though those tickets were sold prior to the WTC. And we have not reached the serious UK recession yet... I'm certainly not getting into any chicken counting competitions.
I know all about the argument that it is possible to train in the worst of times so as to be ready for the upturn - Danny did just that in 1991. However it is not an ideal strategy for a younger Wannabe fincancing themselves of debt and the re-mortgage of the family home.
WWW
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WWW
I wouldn't argue with most of what you have written, but I think a serious UK recession is very unlikely, and I'd say that we are more likely to get a slowdown than a recession of any sort. Aviation is facing very hard times, I agree, but I don't believe that is true generally.
I wouldn't argue with most of what you have written, but I think a serious UK recession is very unlikely, and I'd say that we are more likely to get a slowdown than a recession of any sort. Aviation is facing very hard times, I agree, but I don't believe that is true generally.
Thread Starter
I did heaps of economics at Uni but don't pretend to understand 1% of it. All I know is that Anatole Kaletsky (Award winning Economics journalist for The Times) who has been bullish right up until last week is now forecasting a UK recession.
I hope not. Don't shoot the messenger here.
WWW
I hope not. Don't shoot the messenger here.
WWW
Thread Starter
Looks like it could be worse that 1991:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1540056.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1544050.stm
As many have said - its too early to tell. However, this week is not the one in which to hand £55k to a flying school. Give it at least 3 months to see how things pan out.
Good luck,
WWW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1540056.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/hi/english/bus...00/1544050.stm
As many have said - its too early to tell. However, this week is not the one in which to hand £55k to a flying school. Give it at least 3 months to see how things pan out.
Good luck,
WWW