Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Do not underestimate the impact this will all have on the airline industry. It is going to get a LOT WORSE. You would have to be straight out of the loony bin to sign up for an integrate course now as this will take 3-4 years to work out not 12-18 months.
Greg
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I thought of that.
Don't you think many will stay with school to build time and keep raings current because they're not getting a job? + Lots of those who don't care about this crash and still join school.
Eikido
Don't you think many will stay with school to build time and keep raings current because they're not getting a job? + Lots of those who don't care about this crash and still join school.
Eikido
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www, the topic was signs of an upturn, the discussion of XL, AZ et al is not a sign of the upturn. Interest rates lowering and improved mortgage availability is an indication that some "normality" is returning to the lending markets... (though clearly not the old normality)
As for 12% losses, well they're just paper profits and thus paper losses... only relevant if you bought recently, borrowed against it or at the point of needing to liquidate! (see below)
As with aviation, housing is cyclical, anyway, I hardly think I was ramping my (or any other) house! (perhaps you talking about the rent? It's well documented that rents have been very solid through the current turmoil, so hardly my hype, just fundamentals).
Buy to REGRET, hardly, we bought in Jan 01 and moved out in 04, its doubled in value in the 7 years (though now less the closer to 20%, rather than 12% in my area). I don't see a 20% loss of value as a loss to my capital, I wouldn't have had the £230K sitting in stocks or in cash being eroded by inflation and I don't see the equity as being the equivalent of cash, therefore it’s not capital: My tenant pays the bills, I gain from the gearing, in 10 years time (give or take a couple of years) it will be in the region of double its current (20% off) value and I will have spent around £1K p.a. to attain that.
All investing is a form of gamble! It goes up and down and you should only do it if you can afford to lose; I do know someone who bought a 20% overpriced off plan flat in town last October... I Hope he didn’t think of it as a short term investment!
Now, to suggest that I or anyone else use what’s left of the equity after the loss of value to pay for an integrated school.... I'm firmly in your camp and don't think this is the time for such an action
However, if you put a contract for employment at the start of the same integrated course, that may change my view…. (there are still some sponsored/funded courses out there).
iX
As for 12% losses, well they're just paper profits and thus paper losses... only relevant if you bought recently, borrowed against it or at the point of needing to liquidate! (see below)
As with aviation, housing is cyclical, anyway, I hardly think I was ramping my (or any other) house! (perhaps you talking about the rent? It's well documented that rents have been very solid through the current turmoil, so hardly my hype, just fundamentals).
Buy to REGRET, hardly, we bought in Jan 01 and moved out in 04, its doubled in value in the 7 years (though now less the closer to 20%, rather than 12% in my area). I don't see a 20% loss of value as a loss to my capital, I wouldn't have had the £230K sitting in stocks or in cash being eroded by inflation and I don't see the equity as being the equivalent of cash, therefore it’s not capital: My tenant pays the bills, I gain from the gearing, in 10 years time (give or take a couple of years) it will be in the region of double its current (20% off) value and I will have spent around £1K p.a. to attain that.
All investing is a form of gamble! It goes up and down and you should only do it if you can afford to lose; I do know someone who bought a 20% overpriced off plan flat in town last October... I Hope he didn’t think of it as a short term investment!
Now, to suggest that I or anyone else use what’s left of the equity after the loss of value to pay for an integrated school.... I'm firmly in your camp and don't think this is the time for such an action
However, if you put a contract for employment at the start of the same integrated course, that may change my view…. (there are still some sponsored/funded courses out there).
iX
Last edited by ix_touring; 15th Sep 2008 at 21:17. Reason: Format, re wording to answer the points
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However, if you put a contract for employment at the start of the same integrated course, that may change my view…. (there are still some sponsored/funded courses out there).
look at what happened to GB AIRWAYS 'cadets' at FTE last year.... (dont think they got jobs at gb/easy)
not 100% job guarantee... gona still gamble 70K!?
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Contract:
Nejets/OAA - sign contract before you train, pass the training and get employed, training costs repaid.
There’s also an add in Flight running recently that looks to be a true cadet system (I cannot recall the airline/school).
As pointed out, these are NOT the CTC/Easy/Easy hold pool nod and wink system.
iX
Nejets/OAA - sign contract before you train, pass the training and get employed, training costs repaid.
There’s also an add in Flight running recently that looks to be a true cadet system (I cannot recall the airline/school).
As pointed out, these are NOT the CTC/Easy/Easy hold pool nod and wink system.
iX
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Aviation is cyclic, housing as IX_touring says is cyclic but then again so are the seasons of Spring and Autumn. The bigger picture to those who choose to see is made up of all things cyclic both man made and natural. Therefore we must always view aviation within those terms that a weak economy or panic in other sectors of society will effect us in the aviation recruitment game.
Those that suggest that due to a few variables heading in favourable directions we will be saved doesn't necessarily mean we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, one swallow does not make a summer. Oil, load figures, a few obtainable mortgages don't mean didilly against the backdrop of fear and panic, of which there seem's to be growing amounts in society at present. There are now so many disaster fires that governments have almost if not already played they last and best hand all they can do now is get the dummies guide to excuses book and wait it out. Aviation will also throw off alot of dead wood too during these lean times with weak operations and companies being forced out or made to implement modern systems and corporate processes for the future. This may also entail some of the crews that have had their innings and don't wish to go through this roller coaster anymore to bail out and do a bit of living along other walks in life.
IN the longer term what we are witnessing is the aircrew as employees on a spreadsheet and not the sky gods of yesteryear. This change in image and expectation will drive things further south in coming years. Prestige seems to be an elegeant yet old lady that is clearly a shadow of herself from former years and that's very much how I personally envisage the pilot of the future.
I'm sorry for this little piece probably full of my usual grammatical errors and no doubt thread drifting but some reason I just wanted to add my six pence worth too. I feel very .....
Those that suggest that due to a few variables heading in favourable directions we will be saved doesn't necessarily mean we are out of the woods by any stretch of the imagination, one swallow does not make a summer. Oil, load figures, a few obtainable mortgages don't mean didilly against the backdrop of fear and panic, of which there seem's to be growing amounts in society at present. There are now so many disaster fires that governments have almost if not already played they last and best hand all they can do now is get the dummies guide to excuses book and wait it out. Aviation will also throw off alot of dead wood too during these lean times with weak operations and companies being forced out or made to implement modern systems and corporate processes for the future. This may also entail some of the crews that have had their innings and don't wish to go through this roller coaster anymore to bail out and do a bit of living along other walks in life.
IN the longer term what we are witnessing is the aircrew as employees on a spreadsheet and not the sky gods of yesteryear. This change in image and expectation will drive things further south in coming years. Prestige seems to be an elegeant yet old lady that is clearly a shadow of herself from former years and that's very much how I personally envisage the pilot of the future.
I'm sorry for this little piece probably full of my usual grammatical errors and no doubt thread drifting but some reason I just wanted to add my six pence worth too. I feel very .....
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Internal Ryanair memo posted by "whathehellwasthat"
do you think other airlines might follow suit ? (hint: at least one other is offering unpaid leave right now)
To: All Pilots Date: 15th September 2008 Re: Recruitment Freeze Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, We have recently been inundated with applications from pilots whose employers (such as Zoom, Futura and XL) have gone bust in the past few weeks. We are also receiving applications from pilots who fear that their airline may go bankrupt shortly. Since we already have more than treble the applications we require for our possible future needs we have decided to impose a recruitment freeze with immediate effect (from 15th September) until further notice. This freeze will be reviewed again in early January 2009. Training courses already scheduled for October will be run as planned, however no further recruits will be added to these courses. Delayed aircraft deliveries due to the Boeing strike and a close to zero pilot attrition rate in recent months means that we are currently overstaffed in our pilot/flight operations department.We will continue to seek unpaid winter leave applications, particularly at our largest bases,Dublin and Stansted, where our winter base aircraft numbers have been reduced. If we do not receive sufficient applications on/before the end of September, then we will allocate unpaid leave to some Dublin and Stansted based pilots from November onwards. If you wish to apply for unpaid leave, please contact ***** ***** before the end of September. As always, even during these extremely difficult times, our focus will be upon maintaining jobs and the security of employment of all our pilots and people. Best regards
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I love the idea that mortgages are becoming more accessible in the UK.... who are you kidding??... ha ha ha. Do you read the news papers?? Banks like HBOS are struggling to raise any cash at all at a suitable duration to write mortgages and all of the recent BoE surveys tell you they are still tightening lending criteria. The Bank of England will withdraw the Special liquidity scheme in a few weeks time and have not announced what the erplacement will look like yet.... but it will almost certainly be more expensive for the banks.... thinks have rarely looked worse not better!!
Just because you have a BTL investment and want to hope for the best does not detract from the fact that we are in the biggest financial crisis for a generation..... to say that banks are loosening their lending criteria and making more mortgages available is laughable... try coming and living on planet earth.
Just because you have a BTL investment and want to hope for the best does not detract from the fact that we are in the biggest financial crisis for a generation..... to say that banks are loosening their lending criteria and making more mortgages available is laughable... try coming and living on planet earth.
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However, if you put a contract for employment at the start of the same integrated course, that may change my view…. (there are still some sponsored/funded courses out there).
The Zoom/Futura/XL guys will be first in the queue if they can afford to wait the 18 months to the LHS. They will see it as attractive because they can use their existing bases as gateways to work and won't need to move house. Many airline guys i think "quite fancy" NJE and the varied lifestyle it provides, in the light of nothing better on the horizon in the airline world they will probably stick a toe in the quasi-airline that is NJE and displace your cadet scheme fairly quickly. It will be another downturn victim for wannabees.
Edited to say NJE are heavily advertising for crew right now 1/2 page ads in flight at the time when pilots are coming onto the job market - no coincidence
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How can net jets seriously still be expanding?? Every corporate in the world is slamming a ban on travel via private jets.... which part of there customer base is still growing to the extent that they need to take on additional pilots?
I would have thought Net Jets would be hit very very hard by a recession as people cut back on those little perks such as a private jet? Where is the flaw in my logic?
I would have thought Net Jets would be hit very very hard by a recession as people cut back on those little perks such as a private jet? Where is the flaw in my logic?
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G-SPOT's Lost,
I've no idea which edition(Sept 2007 maybe??
) of Flight your looking at but i cant see any ads from NJE. They turned of the recruitment taps nearly 2 months ago.
I've no idea which edition(Sept 2007 maybe??
) of Flight your looking at but i cant see any ads from NJE. They turned of the recruitment taps nearly 2 months ago.
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Oil is currently under $100 which is good news but it fell quite simply because the economy is slowing but you can bet your bottom dollar that once all this credit nonsense is sorted and the economy starts to grow again its up up and away with the oil price again.
but it fell quite simply because the economy is slowing but you can bet your bottom dollar that once all this credit nonsense is sorted and the economy starts to grow again its up up and away with the oil price again.
Sideshow.
Sorry,
WWW
Sorry,
WWW
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Where is the flaw in my logic?
For approx the next 3 to 4 years your only hope of buying a new Falcon/Gulfstream/Cessna at short notice would be a cancellation. This market is booming worldwide...
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US$ LIBOR nearly doubled today. AIG, RBS and HBOS down more than 20% today compared to horrendous falls yesterday. FTSE below 52 week low.
As oil is getting cheaper money is getting much much more expensive and there's only two things that make aeroplanes fly - kerosene and money.
AIG now down 31% - these boys own a third of the worlds fleet of leased airliners. Much much bigger than a couple of the worlds biggest investment banks. The CDS market is about to explode and there is nothing the Fed or the other Central Banks can do about it.
By the end of the year we could have mortgages at 11%. The current situation is fuelled by the Special Liquidity Scheme and its nearly over. The credit crunch in about to go Siberian. There is no way this cannot result in anything other than a severe and prolonged recession. House prices will fall by 45%. 5 million will be in negative equity.
Flying on holiday or on business will be a quaint memory.
If you don't understand the scale of the debt binge the West has been on since the Y2K non-event then you won't comprehend the amount of cold turkey now being plated up. There will be 3 million on the dole by the end of this.
Several banks will go. I wouldn't be suprised to see queues outside of Halifax branches by the end of the month. Bradford & Bingley by the end of the week.
THIS IS A CRISIS.
As oil is getting cheaper money is getting much much more expensive and there's only two things that make aeroplanes fly - kerosene and money.
AIG now down 31% - these boys own a third of the worlds fleet of leased airliners. Much much bigger than a couple of the worlds biggest investment banks. The CDS market is about to explode and there is nothing the Fed or the other Central Banks can do about it.
By the end of the year we could have mortgages at 11%. The current situation is fuelled by the Special Liquidity Scheme and its nearly over. The credit crunch in about to go Siberian. There is no way this cannot result in anything other than a severe and prolonged recession. House prices will fall by 45%. 5 million will be in negative equity.
Flying on holiday or on business will be a quaint memory.
If you don't understand the scale of the debt binge the West has been on since the Y2K non-event then you won't comprehend the amount of cold turkey now being plated up. There will be 3 million on the dole by the end of this.
Several banks will go. I wouldn't be suprised to see queues outside of Halifax branches by the end of the month. Bradford & Bingley by the end of the week.
THIS IS A CRISIS.
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Hmm...
GSB - I didn't say mortgages are more accessible. I said that there are some reasonable RE mortgage rates, provided that you have a good track record and a 10 - 25% deposit (equity)... I live on the earth and am exposed to the day to day business of being self employed; I deal with both end users and small businesses, both are STILL using my SERVICE (ie they CHOOSE to pay someone to do something they could do for themselves).
Re NJE, they have not altered their delivery slots etc.
MCR - I haven't read all of this weeks Flight but last weeks did have 2 full page ads, one for flight crew, one for HQ staff.
007 - A340 is pictured in this week’s flight, on its way to an unnamed Russian... in brown and silver
CL - 11% ! If that's the prediction then it would be priced into the fixed rates being offered, as previously stated, they are coming DOWN and predictions are for rates to get to 4% (I have even read 3.5% by close of next year. If they DO hit 11% then at least I won’t be alone in my agony ;-)
If it really hits the fan, the kids can go to a state school!
(where the rest of their classmates will also be 
)
iX
GSB - I didn't say mortgages are more accessible. I said that there are some reasonable RE mortgage rates, provided that you have a good track record and a 10 - 25% deposit (equity)... I live on the earth and am exposed to the day to day business of being self employed; I deal with both end users and small businesses, both are STILL using my SERVICE (ie they CHOOSE to pay someone to do something they could do for themselves).
Re NJE, they have not altered their delivery slots etc.
MCR - I haven't read all of this weeks Flight but last weeks did have 2 full page ads, one for flight crew, one for HQ staff.
007 - A340 is pictured in this week’s flight, on its way to an unnamed Russian... in brown and silver
CL - 11% ! If that's the prediction then it would be priced into the fixed rates being offered, as previously stated, they are coming DOWN and predictions are for rates to get to 4% (I have even read 3.5% by close of next year. If they DO hit 11% then at least I won’t be alone in my agony ;-)
If it really hits the fan, the kids can go to a state school!
(where the rest of their classmates will also be )iX
Last edited by ix_touring; 16th Sep 2008 at 11:39. Reason: hot headedness ;-)
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Here.
The central bank base rate means nothing to banks starved of cash. Which is what will happen as capital is destroyed in great big multi billion dollar chunks as bank after bank defaults like Lehman. I fully expect yet another slashing of Interest Rates in the US today and it'll do cock all good.
They'll be offering savings rate of 10% just to suck money in the front door to give them enough tier 1 to keep trading. To make any profit the money being lent out will go to AAA rated credit rating borrowers and will be higher than the savings rates.
Few people get it. Oil at $91 this minute is simply because the market knows demand is going to fall off a cliff. Helicopter Bens mission to air drop bundles of cash has failed. Assets, commodities and bonds are all plunging in value and thus trurning the knife in the banks ribs. Hell, even Al Greenspan is talking about Depression and a once in a century event.
This is not some piddly little event like Sterling exiting the ERM or a Sept 11th style dip. This is the big one.
Bankers jumping off window ledges will be next.
The central bank base rate means nothing to banks starved of cash. Which is what will happen as capital is destroyed in great big multi billion dollar chunks as bank after bank defaults like Lehman. I fully expect yet another slashing of Interest Rates in the US today and it'll do cock all good.
They'll be offering savings rate of 10% just to suck money in the front door to give them enough tier 1 to keep trading. To make any profit the money being lent out will go to AAA rated credit rating borrowers and will be higher than the savings rates.
Few people get it. Oil at $91 this minute is simply because the market knows demand is going to fall off a cliff. Helicopter Bens mission to air drop bundles of cash has failed. Assets, commodities and bonds are all plunging in value and thus trurning the knife in the banks ribs. Hell, even Al Greenspan is talking about Depression and a once in a century event.
This is not some piddly little event like Sterling exiting the ERM or a Sept 11th style dip. This is the big one.
Bankers jumping off window ledges will be next.
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I see an opening...
Bankers jumping off window ledges will be next.
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GSB
I was lucky enough to be offered a job with NJE about three years ago, this is a very structured organisation. When I had the offer letter I was given a choice of 12 Indoc dates for the following 12 months. Indocs will be being run every month at NJE right up until the new year and thereafter, they have no doubt managed to delay/swap slots with some manufacturers
Having said that the aircraft are coming, with lead times of upto 6 years for some Gulfstream products (which NJE operate) thinking about the next three months up until christmas isn't really relevant.
There are people making a killing on Bizjet positions even now with some heavy iron making 7 figure premiums even now.
As I said on the other thread there will be work in GA/Corporate over the next three years but it will not suit the guy who just aspires to sit in the RHS of a Boeing at 200hrs who cannot afford to serve any kind of apprenticeship because of a huge millstone called a training debt. I can foresee the pre JAR days of min 1000 hours returning and a renaissance of the "instructor route". With these minimum hours you may find yourself in a Jetstream if you are very lucky......
SOme of these posts regarding finance are a little alarmist but one thing is for sure airliner recruitment for wannabees is dead in the water you need to adapt or take a non flying job its that simple
I was lucky enough to be offered a job with NJE about three years ago, this is a very structured organisation. When I had the offer letter I was given a choice of 12 Indoc dates for the following 12 months. Indocs will be being run every month at NJE right up until the new year and thereafter, they have no doubt managed to delay/swap slots with some manufacturers
Having said that the aircraft are coming, with lead times of upto 6 years for some Gulfstream products (which NJE operate) thinking about the next three months up until christmas isn't really relevant.
There are people making a killing on Bizjet positions even now with some heavy iron making 7 figure premiums even now.
As I said on the other thread there will be work in GA/Corporate over the next three years but it will not suit the guy who just aspires to sit in the RHS of a Boeing at 200hrs who cannot afford to serve any kind of apprenticeship because of a huge millstone called a training debt. I can foresee the pre JAR days of min 1000 hours returning and a renaissance of the "instructor route". With these minimum hours you may find yourself in a Jetstream if you are very lucky......
SOme of these posts regarding finance are a little alarmist but one thing is for sure airliner recruitment for wannabees is dead in the water you need to adapt or take a non flying job its that simple