Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Where are we on this chart do you believe?
We are entering the Bear Trap <edit - whoops, I meant Bull Trap>. House prices are a good proxy for everything else in the economy. They still have a very long way to fall:
The bottom is still a long way off yet.
WWW
We are entering the Bear Trap <edit - whoops, I meant Bull Trap>. House prices are a good proxy for everything else in the economy. They still have a very long way to fall:
The bottom is still a long way off yet.
WWW
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We are entering the Bear Trap.
Here's an interesting thread:
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...aid-leave.html
Press Release this morning:
"Finnair is to place its pilots on unpaid leave as a consequence of a change in flight schedules. The periods of leave, of at least one week, will be implemented as of mid-April. The reduction in human resources will vary
depending on the aircraft type.
“In the present climate of demand, flight schedules and the requirement for unpaid leave are being monitored regularly,” says Veikko Sievänen, Senior Vice President, Flight Operations Division.
The measures cover at this stage some 700 pilots and are part of a 30 million euro savings package being implemented by the Flight Operations Division."
"Finnair is to place its pilots on unpaid leave as a consequence of a change in flight schedules. The periods of leave, of at least one week, will be implemented as of mid-April. The reduction in human resources will vary
depending on the aircraft type.
“In the present climate of demand, flight schedules and the requirement for unpaid leave are being monitored regularly,” says Veikko Sievänen, Senior Vice President, Flight Operations Division.
The measures cover at this stage some 700 pilots and are part of a 30 million euro savings package being implemented by the Flight Operations Division."
House prices are a good proxy for everything else in the economy
The fact of the matter is that houses are incredibly over-valued and it's high-time they lost 30% of their value or more. If that takes people into negative equity, well, they weren't complaining when spending their new found 'wealth' (read: equity) on flash new BMWs and foreign holidays.
Rant over.
They still have a very long way to fall
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Graph follows graph, but what on earth do they mean? WWW's top graph with 'bear traps' and 'bull traps' appears to be from an academic site illustrating a typical stock market bubble. What does the line labelled 'mean' mean? Is it a mean? It doesn't look like it. If the stock ended up 100% higher at the end of the 'blowoff phase' would they draw the 'mean' line to that position? That would mean the stock was 'undervalued' right up to the point labelled 'media attention'. Can a simplistic graph illustrating a stock market bubble be applied to our situation? If so, wasn't it the 'smart money' and 'institutional investors' doing the buying in the 'mania phase'?
And how does this fit WWW's previous graph? Not at all.
What is a nominal house price graph? Why is it different to this one, apart from the peak at the end? It looks like it isn't inflation adjusted, the 1990 peak only shows if you do that. Is it valid to consider a house price graph that is not adjusted for inflation? Should we perhaps relate house prices to incomes like this or, and this is much more difficult to do, against disposable income?
I'm not denying we're in the sticky stuff, just wondering what value there is in posting unexplained and irrelevant graphs followed by statements like 'Be very afraid' and 'buy shotguns and tinned food'.
And how does this fit WWW's previous graph? Not at all.
What is a nominal house price graph? Why is it different to this one, apart from the peak at the end? It looks like it isn't inflation adjusted, the 1990 peak only shows if you do that. Is it valid to consider a house price graph that is not adjusted for inflation? Should we perhaps relate house prices to incomes like this or, and this is much more difficult to do, against disposable income?
I'm not denying we're in the sticky stuff, just wondering what value there is in posting unexplained and irrelevant graphs followed by statements like 'Be very afraid' and 'buy shotguns and tinned food'.
Whoops - bull trap.
Where houses were relative to the wages at the peak of the boom was:
Here are some interesting statistics to consider, based on 2007 prices. The average salary multiple over the last 37 years (1971 to 2007) is 4.54. At the 2007 average wage of £24,000, that gives an average house price of £109,000 – a fall of 40% from the peak. But if you exclude the bubble years (from 2001 to 2007), you get a 4.17 average salary multiple – which would give an average house price of £100,091, a fall of 45% from the peak.
Of course, if you then start to restrict the multiples that people can borrow, and the deposits they have to put down, the average falls even further. For example, a 3.5 times salary multiple with a 10% deposit gives you a £93,333 average house price (a 49% drop).
And of course, this isn't considering what would happen if house prices return to three or four times the average wage, but the average wage falls, as is quite possible if we do end up in deflation.
Of course where we are now shows that the correction is happening quite quickly but it still have a way to go yet:
Wannabes are *still* signing up for £70,000 intensive training courses in the hope or expectation that the job market will be better in 18 months. It won't, it will be much much worse, but they can't see that. Which is why I continue to push the view Alex.
Its not a gloomy or happy prediction. Its devoid of emotion.
As reported in the Economist in January 2009 I believe the report produced by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart. Their analysis of the last 14 severe economic crisis is summarised thus:
The main results of the research make depressing reading. Downturns that follow a financial crisis are typically long and deep (see table). On average, GDP per person falls by more than 9% from its peak and takes almost two years to reach bottom. The misery in the jobs market tends to last far longer. The unemployment rate increases by an average of seven percentage points after severe meltdowns and reaches a peak almost five years after its rise began. If that gauge is accurate, unemployment in America is set to rise to an alarming rate of 11-12% in coming years. The housing bust is unlikely to end quickly either. House prices take an average of five years to reach their nadir and fall by 36% in real terms. Equities take less time to reach rock bottom but lose more than half of their value by the time they get there.
WWW
Where houses were relative to the wages at the peak of the boom was:
Here are some interesting statistics to consider, based on 2007 prices. The average salary multiple over the last 37 years (1971 to 2007) is 4.54. At the 2007 average wage of £24,000, that gives an average house price of £109,000 – a fall of 40% from the peak. But if you exclude the bubble years (from 2001 to 2007), you get a 4.17 average salary multiple – which would give an average house price of £100,091, a fall of 45% from the peak.
Of course, if you then start to restrict the multiples that people can borrow, and the deposits they have to put down, the average falls even further. For example, a 3.5 times salary multiple with a 10% deposit gives you a £93,333 average house price (a 49% drop).
And of course, this isn't considering what would happen if house prices return to three or four times the average wage, but the average wage falls, as is quite possible if we do end up in deflation.
Of course where we are now shows that the correction is happening quite quickly but it still have a way to go yet:
Wannabes are *still* signing up for £70,000 intensive training courses in the hope or expectation that the job market will be better in 18 months. It won't, it will be much much worse, but they can't see that. Which is why I continue to push the view Alex.
Its not a gloomy or happy prediction. Its devoid of emotion.
As reported in the Economist in January 2009 I believe the report produced by Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University and Carmen Reinhart. Their analysis of the last 14 severe economic crisis is summarised thus:
The main results of the research make depressing reading. Downturns that follow a financial crisis are typically long and deep (see table). On average, GDP per person falls by more than 9% from its peak and takes almost two years to reach bottom. The misery in the jobs market tends to last far longer. The unemployment rate increases by an average of seven percentage points after severe meltdowns and reaches a peak almost five years after its rise began. If that gauge is accurate, unemployment in America is set to rise to an alarming rate of 11-12% in coming years. The housing bust is unlikely to end quickly either. House prices take an average of five years to reach their nadir and fall by 36% in real terms. Equities take less time to reach rock bottom but lose more than half of their value by the time they get there.
WWW
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What are you looking at then to guage how much we are in the poo then Alex.... airline passenger/cargo numbers? Airline profitability?
How mainy airlines/FTOs go out of business?....
Lets have some pearls of wisdom.... what are bookings like at BGS YoY.... that would be an interesting chart....
How mainy airlines/FTOs go out of business?....
Lets have some pearls of wisdom.... what are bookings like at BGS YoY.... that would be an interesting chart....
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Oh, come on. You can't just post a stylised graph of a stock market bubble over an indeterminate period above a non-inflation adjusted house price graph over 25 years, observe they look the same, then imply there's a bear I mean bull trap coming and the bottom's still a long way off. That's rubbish, and typical of the twaddle that gets posted on this thread.
This is what I was looking for, a graph of house prices against disposable income. to make it more meaningful you should also probably factor in mortgage rates, which were much higher in the 80's and 90's than they have been recently.
I'm gauging the amount of trouble we're in by consumer confidence, which is neccesarily a subjective view. Do you see any airlines going out of business?
This is what I was looking for, a graph of house prices against disposable income. to make it more meaningful you should also probably factor in mortgage rates, which were much higher in the 80's and 90's than they have been recently.
I'm gauging the amount of trouble we're in by consumer confidence, which is neccesarily a subjective view. Do you see any airlines going out of business?
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Not in the last couple of months.... since XL, maxjet etc etc spewed a load of pilots.... although sure there are probably some in US/Europe I have missed.
See a lot laying off crew though or offering "unpaid leave".... and a lot posting losses and pointing to cuts/mergers etc.... all crap for wanabee recruitment.
Plus I think we all know the real blood will be on the streets next winter once cash reserves are burnt through (both consumer and airline). Or would you disagree and you think we are over the worst?
Consumer confidence is pants from where I sit and getting worse..... haven't seen any official data saying it has improved or is likely to.
How are bookings at Bristol GS.... any sign of recession biting or are the pilot training sausage factories still working at capacity to churn out the next wave of wanabee onto a depressed job market?
You could add some real value to wanabees by giving them an insight here.... would be something that is not "subjective" and you have value added on.
See a lot laying off crew though or offering "unpaid leave".... and a lot posting losses and pointing to cuts/mergers etc.... all crap for wanabee recruitment.
Plus I think we all know the real blood will be on the streets next winter once cash reserves are burnt through (both consumer and airline). Or would you disagree and you think we are over the worst?
Consumer confidence is pants from where I sit and getting worse..... haven't seen any official data saying it has improved or is likely to.
How are bookings at Bristol GS.... any sign of recession biting or are the pilot training sausage factories still working at capacity to churn out the next wave of wanabee onto a depressed job market?
You could add some real value to wanabees by giving them an insight here.... would be something that is not "subjective" and you have value added on.
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The problem that I have with this thread is that the same posters cycle round and round presenting a very one sided view, usually by cutting and pasting selected crap in from elsewhere on the internet.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that we're in recession and that house prices have been falling for nearly a year. A real rocket scientist would be able to precisely predict the upturn but that's not what we get. What we get from our resident experts is assurances that it will all continue to some undefined point far enough in the future that you're not likely to be called to account and, if it did turn around early, hey, these things are notoriously difficult to predict and the 'experts' would certainly be able to explain it after the event.
My main issue is that there's not enough balance. WWW has enough gravitas for his postings to be taken very seriously and he posts again and again with the same highly negative message. Yes, he would call it realistic, but you should accept that there are other views and WWW's opinion is just that, an opinion. It's also an opinion that he has an emotional and financial investment in having sold his house, moved into rented accommodation and bought a farm (and probably shotguns) so he can live off the land. But dissent is not allowed for long here, naysayers are swiftly cudgeled about the head and sent packing to the sound of mocking laughter.
Many people have seen their spending power increase dramatically in the last few months as mortgage payments have fallen. Yes, we all know people who have lost their jobs and we all have friends in industries like finance and property where there is an obvious downturn but many more of us still have jobs and are sitting this out, waiting for the upturn, the esential marker for which is the return of consumer confidence.
It's easy to be snarky, and refer to those of us who work in the industry as 'pilot training sausage factories', but I think it's unwarranted. Everyone I know in the industry tries to do the best they can for their customers as I'm sure you do for the customers in your profession. Would you like us all to retire, then, so you can train yourself?
The value that I would add to this thread, if you would accept it as value, is to point out that WWW and his acolytes are not neccessarily right. They are only stating opinions, and one-sided opinions at that.
It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that we're in recession and that house prices have been falling for nearly a year. A real rocket scientist would be able to precisely predict the upturn but that's not what we get. What we get from our resident experts is assurances that it will all continue to some undefined point far enough in the future that you're not likely to be called to account and, if it did turn around early, hey, these things are notoriously difficult to predict and the 'experts' would certainly be able to explain it after the event.
My main issue is that there's not enough balance. WWW has enough gravitas for his postings to be taken very seriously and he posts again and again with the same highly negative message. Yes, he would call it realistic, but you should accept that there are other views and WWW's opinion is just that, an opinion. It's also an opinion that he has an emotional and financial investment in having sold his house, moved into rented accommodation and bought a farm (and probably shotguns) so he can live off the land. But dissent is not allowed for long here, naysayers are swiftly cudgeled about the head and sent packing to the sound of mocking laughter.
Many people have seen their spending power increase dramatically in the last few months as mortgage payments have fallen. Yes, we all know people who have lost their jobs and we all have friends in industries like finance and property where there is an obvious downturn but many more of us still have jobs and are sitting this out, waiting for the upturn, the esential marker for which is the return of consumer confidence.
It's easy to be snarky, and refer to those of us who work in the industry as 'pilot training sausage factories', but I think it's unwarranted. Everyone I know in the industry tries to do the best they can for their customers as I'm sure you do for the customers in your profession. Would you like us all to retire, then, so you can train yourself?
The value that I would add to this thread, if you would accept it as value, is to point out that WWW and his acolytes are not neccessarily right. They are only stating opinions, and one-sided opinions at that.
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The value that I would add to this thread, if you would accept it as value, is to point out that WWW and his acolytes are not neccessarily right. They are only stating opinions, and one-sided opinions at that.
When they start appearing your organisation can expect my business and right now nearly everyone is saying wait and see what happens to the industry. I don't thing anyone really knows what's going to happen but it will be interesting to see 
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Exactly my point. Wait and see. Pardon me for having very little faith in business journalists, bankers and economists. They have a poor track record in predicting the future.
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I totally agree with you Alex! This thread is extremely one sided, and very repetitive. Everyone knows 2009 will be a hard year, but after that who knows. No one.
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Well please fill out the otherside of the debate with grounds for optimism and lay out a path to a recovery in pilot recruitment in 2010. I would loooove to here some good news.
Perhaps you should ask the question why is the debate so one sided.... might be to do with the overwhelming evidence for the prosecution??
Alex for all his moaning sits at the heart of the training industry as we all know and in the past he pointed to Easy and Ryanairs traffic numbers.... now Easy's growth has gone 6-7% negative year on year and Ryanair is slowing dramatically but still postive... please offer some other evidence as to why wanabees should spend money in the hope of a pick up in 2010.
I for one would love to here some good news.... don't complain about it being oneside give the otherside and the reason for such optimism....pleeeeeease...
Perhaps you should ask the question why is the debate so one sided.... might be to do with the overwhelming evidence for the prosecution??
Alex for all his moaning sits at the heart of the training industry as we all know and in the past he pointed to Easy and Ryanairs traffic numbers.... now Easy's growth has gone 6-7% negative year on year and Ryanair is slowing dramatically but still postive... please offer some other evidence as to why wanabees should spend money in the hope of a pick up in 2010.
I for one would love to here some good news.... don't complain about it being oneside give the otherside and the reason for such optimism....pleeeeeease...
I've always encouraged people to put the counter view to my own. Many did back when I was saying there was going to be a massive house price crash and a severe recession.
I agree there is little point in pointing out where we are. Which is why my recent posts have been about how long we are likely to be where we are.
Crap off the internet includes the sort of crap that the editor of The Economist see fit to print so I make no apology for the content I link to. Claims that I have some emotional and financial motive for delighting in the current misery are quite wide of the mark. I'm highly concerned for my own situation and have very close friends close to losing everything.
Alex, you find this thread unbalanced and I accept that. But I see this thread and this topic as but a small voice against a rock concert of noise produced by the flight training industry and their marketing budgets. This is one thread on one forum on one discussion site. You're welcome to continue, and to increase, the balance. You're good at it.
When things were booming I was writing here that Wannabes should dive straight in to benefit from "the golden age for wannabes". I very much look forward to writing such words again. At the moment you'd be mad to join in the carnage and I make no apology for pumping out that message.
WWW
I agree there is little point in pointing out where we are. Which is why my recent posts have been about how long we are likely to be where we are.
Crap off the internet includes the sort of crap that the editor of The Economist see fit to print so I make no apology for the content I link to. Claims that I have some emotional and financial motive for delighting in the current misery are quite wide of the mark. I'm highly concerned for my own situation and have very close friends close to losing everything.
Alex, you find this thread unbalanced and I accept that. But I see this thread and this topic as but a small voice against a rock concert of noise produced by the flight training industry and their marketing budgets. This is one thread on one forum on one discussion site. You're welcome to continue, and to increase, the balance. You're good at it.
When things were booming I was writing here that Wannabes should dive straight in to benefit from "the golden age for wannabes". I very much look forward to writing such words again. At the moment you'd be mad to join in the carnage and I make no apology for pumping out that message.
WWW
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Two good points, getoffmycloud, and one not-so-good one.
Your first good point, Easy traffic numbers were down in February. I've consistently pointed out, in the face of doom and gloom statements about the state of the airline industry that, in the biggest area that concerns us, the UK short haul market, there is no slowdown. OK, for the first month in yonks, Easy's passenger figures were down. Obviously you were right, we are all doomed. But, hang on, do you remember the snow in February, the closed airports and the cancelled flights? That didn't happen last year. Now I don't know, but maybe some of the traffic fall was down to that?
Which brings me to my first point, the tendency to blindly accept graphs, figures and percentages without analysing the source data. This is a big mistake, and it happens too often with this cut-and-paste thread. Everyone has an angle, newspapers like big headlines and companies use downturns for a bit of writing off and staff culling. The graphs above are a good example of trying to fit the statistics to a pre-conceived view.
Your second good point. Why not make the case for a recovery, say in August 2009 or July? If I did that I'd be just as guilty of amateur guesswork as the posts I'm complaining about. Much of it is put around as 'the truth'. It's not, it's guesswork, and the only 'truth' is that no-one knows.
Your not-so-good point, attacking my motivation. You are quite wrong. Myself and WWW have always said basically the same thing. There is no guarantee of a job, anyone who suggests that is lying to you. Unlike you I have never said 'this is the golden age of the wannabee', it is always a bet. Sometimes the odds are in your favour and an integrated course will get you a position quickly, sometimes the odds suggest a modular course and staying in employment is the best answer, sometimes it's not a good time to start training at all. The problem with estimating the odds is that, when you make the call, you are looking 15 months to three years in the future so, at the end of the day, it's a guess. WWW is also wrong about his 'rock concert of noise' from the flight training industry. I watch my competitors marketing closely, and they all give responsible advice. If there is anything like he describes it comes not from the industry but from the customers justifying their purchasing decision as they pile £70K+ into an integrated course. In a wider area, yes, I do like to see a healthy training industry and a stable recruitment market. Who wouldn't?
So, no, I have no problems about attacking opinions presented as 'truth' and I don't feel a need to counter them by making up my own projections. As for the editor of the Economist, WWW, you believe him if you like. I don't imagine he's any better than Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, the chairman of RBS, the CEO of Northern Rock, the CEO of Lehman Brothers....
Your first good point, Easy traffic numbers were down in February. I've consistently pointed out, in the face of doom and gloom statements about the state of the airline industry that, in the biggest area that concerns us, the UK short haul market, there is no slowdown. OK, for the first month in yonks, Easy's passenger figures were down. Obviously you were right, we are all doomed. But, hang on, do you remember the snow in February, the closed airports and the cancelled flights? That didn't happen last year. Now I don't know, but maybe some of the traffic fall was down to that?
Which brings me to my first point, the tendency to blindly accept graphs, figures and percentages without analysing the source data. This is a big mistake, and it happens too often with this cut-and-paste thread. Everyone has an angle, newspapers like big headlines and companies use downturns for a bit of writing off and staff culling. The graphs above are a good example of trying to fit the statistics to a pre-conceived view.
Your second good point. Why not make the case for a recovery, say in August 2009 or July? If I did that I'd be just as guilty of amateur guesswork as the posts I'm complaining about. Much of it is put around as 'the truth'. It's not, it's guesswork, and the only 'truth' is that no-one knows.
Your not-so-good point, attacking my motivation. You are quite wrong. Myself and WWW have always said basically the same thing. There is no guarantee of a job, anyone who suggests that is lying to you. Unlike you I have never said 'this is the golden age of the wannabee', it is always a bet. Sometimes the odds are in your favour and an integrated course will get you a position quickly, sometimes the odds suggest a modular course and staying in employment is the best answer, sometimes it's not a good time to start training at all. The problem with estimating the odds is that, when you make the call, you are looking 15 months to three years in the future so, at the end of the day, it's a guess. WWW is also wrong about his 'rock concert of noise' from the flight training industry. I watch my competitors marketing closely, and they all give responsible advice. If there is anything like he describes it comes not from the industry but from the customers justifying their purchasing decision as they pile £70K+ into an integrated course. In a wider area, yes, I do like to see a healthy training industry and a stable recruitment market. Who wouldn't?
So, no, I have no problems about attacking opinions presented as 'truth' and I don't feel a need to counter them by making up my own projections. As for the editor of the Economist, WWW, you believe him if you like. I don't imagine he's any better than Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling, the chairman of RBS, the CEO of Northern Rock, the CEO of Lehman Brothers....
Alex - don't worry. Nobody listens to me and I've no delusions about that.
You keep pointing out that I am giving my opinion. I am. There's no Gravitas, no Editorial, no pretence.
If there is any weight, attached by readers, its only because what I wrote was right and it was before it became self evident. Might be luck, might be gold dust.
Be upbeat. Be vocal. Be my guest.
WWW
You keep pointing out that I am giving my opinion. I am. There's no Gravitas, no Editorial, no pretence.
If there is any weight, attached by readers, its only because what I wrote was right and it was before it became self evident. Might be luck, might be gold dust.
Be upbeat. Be vocal. Be my guest.
WWW
A couple of points from a dispassionate observer -
1, It's morally right, for those old enough to have seen previous recessions to warn those who may be too young to put the current situation into perspective.
2, WWW has nothing financial to gain if his viewpoint is accepted. I don't believe the same could be said for AW.
1, It's morally right, for those old enough to have seen previous recessions to warn those who may be too young to put the current situation into perspective.
2, WWW has nothing financial to gain if his viewpoint is accepted. I don't believe the same could be said for AW.
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eerrrr I think you will find the biggest factors contibuting to the Easy passenger number decline is that Feb is the first month with GB distortions dropping out (which was pointed out to you months ago)..... what you saw in Feb (and will see in coming months) is the true underlying picture. Stripping out the GB acquisition distortion Easy's numbers have been down for 3-4 months now.
Although I am sure WWW can give a better view on the current state of affairs at the Big Orange.
The aviation industry is clearly in a (big) hole at the moment and I have yet to hear ANYONE come up with any reason why this should turn around in the next 12-18 months.... no-one has even had the balls to step up to the plate and lay out a path to recovery....
Alex it is all very well you saying "no-one knows for sure".... that is true but the harsh reality for wanabees is if you start you training now in most cases you pop out the sausage machine in 12-18 months.... that it is why speculation, opinions etc about what the job market looks like then is so important to wanabees today.
You are being equally disingenuous with your comments because much as you may hate to admit it to yourself WWW has no financial gain from sharing his views. You are running one of the biggest and best ground school providers and clearly do have "skin in the flight training game" and could never be expected to lay it out as it is at the moment.... you would scare all your customers away.
To be constructive the first signs of recovery may well be a stabilistation in US house prices.... the rest may flow from there. So keep an eye on the Case-Schiller index and maybe plan to start your training when that has bottomed for a couple of months. 12-18 months post that things may start picking up.
Although I am sure WWW can give a better view on the current state of affairs at the Big Orange.
The aviation industry is clearly in a (big) hole at the moment and I have yet to hear ANYONE come up with any reason why this should turn around in the next 12-18 months.... no-one has even had the balls to step up to the plate and lay out a path to recovery....
Alex it is all very well you saying "no-one knows for sure".... that is true but the harsh reality for wanabees is if you start you training now in most cases you pop out the sausage machine in 12-18 months.... that it is why speculation, opinions etc about what the job market looks like then is so important to wanabees today.
You are being equally disingenuous with your comments because much as you may hate to admit it to yourself WWW has no financial gain from sharing his views. You are running one of the biggest and best ground school providers and clearly do have "skin in the flight training game" and could never be expected to lay it out as it is at the moment.... you would scare all your customers away.
To be constructive the first signs of recovery may well be a stabilistation in US house prices.... the rest may flow from there. So keep an eye on the Case-Schiller index and maybe plan to start your training when that has bottomed for a couple of months. 12-18 months post that things may start picking up.