Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: everywhere
Posts: 620
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This is that 3-4 month delay I was talking about and it is going to get much worse. But what on Earth can we do if we have just qualified with a CPL/IR? I really do not think a Ryanair type rating is the answer, 500 hours on a 737 is not going to help anyone, especially at £30000 for the opportunity. Being on one of those contracts could be killer, just look at what happened to the BMW Mini employees. And people are still kidding themselves I see in other forums that they are going to get 3-5000 Euros a month. DREAM ON. Sure people will always need to travel by air but not to the extent they were in the previous years for a long time. People had too much spare cash before - not anymore. And going abroad isn't an option either......I wish I had never done this......
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: West Sussex, UK
Posts: 1,546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
quant
So still going to spend money on a Frozen ATPL!?!
With #2077 (2078 now!) post's on this thread, at what point did you think this was idle rubbish? The trend of the legacy airlines (i.e. High Cost Airlines) may spread to the UK by October/November this year. If Virgin and BA start offering unpaid leave to experienced pilots, how good is your £50k investment into a fATPL looking?!?
Don't do it...you're off your trolley!!!
So still going to spend money on a Frozen ATPL!?!
I'm sorry to say chaps that www dire predictions are coming true.
Don't do it...you're off your trolley!!!
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
at what point did you think this was idle rubbish?
I'm an optimist and well what goes down must go up 
but only now am i beginning to understand the true nature of this downturn 
Fortune favours the bold
Looks like I've won over a Wannabe - that didn't take tooooooo much effort then ;-)
I'm all for a follow-your-dreams ****-or-bust now-or-never attitude because without it non of us would have dared take a step up the steep sides of MtCommercialPilot. I honestly hate to be the one hammering in Stop, Despair, There Be Dragons! warning signs on all the pathways. It gives me no pleasure and does nothing to assuage my own career concerns..
Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.
The situation is grave. Look at the likes of Aer Lingus and their recent result as a coalmine canary. It won't get better and it cant and wont go on.. 2000hrs is going to be the new 200hrs in 2010.
WWW
I'm all for a follow-your-dreams ****-or-bust now-or-never attitude because without it non of us would have dared take a step up the steep sides of MtCommercialPilot. I honestly hate to be the one hammering in Stop, Despair, There Be Dragons! warning signs on all the pathways. It gives me no pleasure and does nothing to assuage my own career concerns..
Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.
The situation is grave. Look at the likes of Aer Lingus and their recent result as a coalmine canary. It won't get better and it cant and wont go on.. 2000hrs is going to be the new 200hrs in 2010.
WWW
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: everywhere
Posts: 620
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The more sugestable people out their though can't be blamed when you have the apparently more desrable FTOs 'predicting' (said in the loosest sense of the word) that the need for pilots is going to be greater than ever into 2009/2010......Don't be an idiot and don't believe the crap. And as has been said, 500 hours on any airliner is going to make f all difference to your career unless you MAYBE want to earn £500 a month flying out in the middle of nowhere - not really a runner when you have £1200 a month after tax to service for 8 years.
Join Date: May 2008
Location: ireland
Posts: 35
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
WWW
Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.
I no the feeling mainy a time gone hill walking/climbing and some moron gets out of his car wearing timberland boots levi jeans&matching denin jacket and not a care in the world.(untill there near the summit and a front has moved in).
I think THEBEAK has got it right about these FTO around europe&usa* saying there will be an upturn 2010 utter crap.
Another piont about these so called wannabe why would they get them selves in to such bad debt,(buy a house things get bad rent a room) i have worked in the transport industry for over 13 years and when making a decison i stand back and get the big picture gather all the info i can before making a decision simple.
And yes i suspose im a wannabe (doing ppl at the moment) while in employment and if i make it to fATPL even better if i dont well i can say i gave it a shot (god loves a trier)
Nevertheless there are hoards of flip-flop wearing idiots strolling up the mountain trail with nary-a-care for the forecast or current conditions.. I'll be manning the big yellow helicopter later as their predicament overcomes them and the tears flow.
I no the feeling mainy a time gone hill walking/climbing and some moron gets out of his car wearing timberland boots levi jeans&matching denin jacket and not a care in the world.(untill there near the summit and a front has moved in).
I think THEBEAK has got it right about these FTO around europe&usa* saying there will be an upturn 2010 utter crap.
Another piont about these so called wannabe why would they get them selves in to such bad debt,(buy a house things get bad rent a room) i have worked in the transport industry for over 13 years and when making a decison i stand back and get the big picture gather all the info i can before making a decision simple.
And yes i suspose im a wannabe (doing ppl at the moment) while in employment and if i make it to fATPL even better if i dont well i can say i gave it a shot (god loves a trier)
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: West Sussex, UK
Posts: 1,546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The Rich DON'T get Richer...
From Forbes Magazine: Interesting reading, especially the last paragraph of latest new billionaires and how they did it. The losses are HUGE, especially the boss of AIG - aviation related? Well..Warren Buffet own's NJE's I suppose...
Cheers
JB
It's been a tough year for the richest people in the world. Last year there were 1,125 billionaires. This year there are just 793 people rich enough to make our list.
The world has become a wealth wasteland. Like the rest of us, the richest people in the world have endured a financial disaster over the past year. Today there are 793 people on our list of the World's Billionaires, a 30% decline from a year ago.
Of the 1,125 billionaires who made last year's ranking, 373 fell off the list--355 from declining fortunes and 18 who died. There are 38 newcomers, plus three moguls who returned to the list after regaining their 10-figure fortunes. It is the first time since 2003 that the world has had a net loss in the number of billionaires.
The world's richest are also a lot poorer. Their collective net worth is $2.4 trillion, down $2 trillion from a year ago. Their average net worth fell 23% to $3 billion. The last time the average was that low was in 2003.
Bill Gates lost $18 billion but regained his title as the world's richest man. Warren Buffett, last year's No. 1, saw his fortune decline $25 billion as shares of Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRK.A - news - people ) fell nearly 50% in 12 months, but he still managed to slip just one spot to No. 2. Mexican telecom titan Carlos Slim Helú also lost $25 billion and dropped one spot to No. 3.
It was hard to avoid the carnage, whether you were in stocks, commodities, real estate or technology. Even people running profitable businesses were hammered by frozen credit markets, weak consumer spending or declining currencies.
The biggest loser in the world this year, by dollars, was last year's biggest gainer. India's Anil Ambani lost $32 billion--76% of his fortune--as shares of his Reliance Communications, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital all collapsed.
Ambani is one of 24 Indian billionaires, all but one of whom are poorer than a year ago. Another 29 Indians lost their billionaire status entirely as India's stock market tumbled 44% in the past year and the Indian rupee depreciated 18% against the dollar. It is no longer the top spot in Asia for billionaires, ceding that title to China, which has 28.
Russia became the epicenter of the world's commodities bust, dropping 55 billionaires--two-thirds of its 2008 crop. Among them: Dmitry Pumpyansky, an industrialist from the resource-rich Ural mountain region, who lost $5 billion as shares of his pipe producer, TMK, sank 84%. Also gone is Vasily Anisimov, father of Moscow's Paris Hilton, Anna Anisimova, who lost $3.2 billion as the value of his Metalloinvest Holding, one of Russia's largest ore mining and processing firms, fell along with his real estate holdings.
Twelve months ago Moscow overtook New York as the billionaire capital of the world, with 74 tycoons to New York's 71. Today there are 27 in Moscow and 55 in New York.
After slipping in recent years, the U.S. is regaining its dominance as a repository of wealth. Americans account for 44% of the money and 45% of the list's slots, up seven and three percentage points from last year, respectively. Still, it has 110 fewer billionaires than a year ago.
Those with ties to Wall Street were particularly hard hit. Former head of AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people ) Maurice (Hank) Greenberg saw his $1.9 billion fortune nearly wiped out after the insurance behemoth had to be bailed out by the U.S. government. Today Greenberg is worth less than $100 million. Former Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) Chairman Sandy Weill also falls from the ranks.
Last year there were 39 American billionaire hedge fund managers; this year there are 28. Twelve American private equity tycoons dropped out of the billionaire ranks.
Blackstone Group's (nyse: BX - news - people ) Stephen Schwarzman, who lost $4 billion, and Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts' Henry Kravis, who lost $2.5 billion, retain their billionaire status despite their weaker fortunes.
Worldwide, 80 of the 355 drop-offs from last year's list had fortunes derived from finance or investments.
While 656 billionaires lost money in the past year, 44 added to their fortunes. Those who made money did so by catering to budget-conscious consumers (discount retailer Uniqlo's Tadashi Yanai), predicting the crash (investor John Paulson) or cashing out in the nick of time (Cirque du Soleil's Guy Laliberte).
So is there anywhere one can still make a fortune these days? The 38 newcomers offer a few clues. Among the more notable new billionaires are Mexican Joaquín Guzmán Loera, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the U.S.; Wang Chuanfu of China, whose BYD Co. began selling electric cars in December, and American John Paul Dejoria, who got the world clean with his Paul Mitchell shampoos and sloppy with his Patrón Tequila.
The world has become a wealth wasteland. Like the rest of us, the richest people in the world have endured a financial disaster over the past year. Today there are 793 people on our list of the World's Billionaires, a 30% decline from a year ago.
Of the 1,125 billionaires who made last year's ranking, 373 fell off the list--355 from declining fortunes and 18 who died. There are 38 newcomers, plus three moguls who returned to the list after regaining their 10-figure fortunes. It is the first time since 2003 that the world has had a net loss in the number of billionaires.
The world's richest are also a lot poorer. Their collective net worth is $2.4 trillion, down $2 trillion from a year ago. Their average net worth fell 23% to $3 billion. The last time the average was that low was in 2003.
Bill Gates lost $18 billion but regained his title as the world's richest man. Warren Buffett, last year's No. 1, saw his fortune decline $25 billion as shares of Berkshire Hathaway (nyse: BRK.A - news - people ) fell nearly 50% in 12 months, but he still managed to slip just one spot to No. 2. Mexican telecom titan Carlos Slim Helú also lost $25 billion and dropped one spot to No. 3.
It was hard to avoid the carnage, whether you were in stocks, commodities, real estate or technology. Even people running profitable businesses were hammered by frozen credit markets, weak consumer spending or declining currencies.
The biggest loser in the world this year, by dollars, was last year's biggest gainer. India's Anil Ambani lost $32 billion--76% of his fortune--as shares of his Reliance Communications, Reliance Power and Reliance Capital all collapsed.
Ambani is one of 24 Indian billionaires, all but one of whom are poorer than a year ago. Another 29 Indians lost their billionaire status entirely as India's stock market tumbled 44% in the past year and the Indian rupee depreciated 18% against the dollar. It is no longer the top spot in Asia for billionaires, ceding that title to China, which has 28.
Russia became the epicenter of the world's commodities bust, dropping 55 billionaires--two-thirds of its 2008 crop. Among them: Dmitry Pumpyansky, an industrialist from the resource-rich Ural mountain region, who lost $5 billion as shares of his pipe producer, TMK, sank 84%. Also gone is Vasily Anisimov, father of Moscow's Paris Hilton, Anna Anisimova, who lost $3.2 billion as the value of his Metalloinvest Holding, one of Russia's largest ore mining and processing firms, fell along with his real estate holdings.
Twelve months ago Moscow overtook New York as the billionaire capital of the world, with 74 tycoons to New York's 71. Today there are 27 in Moscow and 55 in New York.
After slipping in recent years, the U.S. is regaining its dominance as a repository of wealth. Americans account for 44% of the money and 45% of the list's slots, up seven and three percentage points from last year, respectively. Still, it has 110 fewer billionaires than a year ago.
Those with ties to Wall Street were particularly hard hit. Former head of AIG (nyse: AIG - news - people ) Maurice (Hank) Greenberg saw his $1.9 billion fortune nearly wiped out after the insurance behemoth had to be bailed out by the U.S. government. Today Greenberg is worth less than $100 million. Former Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) Chairman Sandy Weill also falls from the ranks.
Last year there were 39 American billionaire hedge fund managers; this year there are 28. Twelve American private equity tycoons dropped out of the billionaire ranks.
Blackstone Group's (nyse: BX - news - people ) Stephen Schwarzman, who lost $4 billion, and Kohlberg Kravis & Roberts' Henry Kravis, who lost $2.5 billion, retain their billionaire status despite their weaker fortunes.
Worldwide, 80 of the 355 drop-offs from last year's list had fortunes derived from finance or investments.
While 656 billionaires lost money in the past year, 44 added to their fortunes. Those who made money did so by catering to budget-conscious consumers (discount retailer Uniqlo's Tadashi Yanai), predicting the crash (investor John Paulson) or cashing out in the nick of time (Cirque du Soleil's Guy Laliberte).
So is there anywhere one can still make a fortune these days? The 38 newcomers offer a few clues. Among the more notable new billionaires are Mexican Joaquín Guzmán Loera, one of the biggest suppliers of cocaine to the U.S.; Wang Chuanfu of China, whose BYD Co. began selling electric cars in December, and American John Paul Dejoria, who got the world clean with his Paul Mitchell shampoos and sloppy with his Patrón Tequila.
JB
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: London
Posts: 238
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Qatar Airways bucks trend with major expansion plans for 2009
It's not all bad news 
Qatar Airways bucks trend with major expansion plans for 2009
Once we are through this turbulent period what does everyone think the price of oil will be? I'm going for $150/barrel.
Qatar Airways bucks trend with major expansion plans for 2009
Once we are through this turbulent period what does everyone think the price of oil will be? I'm going for $150/barrel.
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: West Sussex, UK
Posts: 1,546
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Once we are through this turbulent period what does everyone think the price of oil will be? I'm going for $150/barrel.
If it's high or low, as a fare paying pax, you'll be paying for it in the way of surcharges...
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: uk
Posts: 1,224
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
www
2000hrs is going to be the new 200hrs in 2010.
Not in Ryanair it ain't, the 200 hour guy has a much better chance of getting in than the 2000 hour guy.
Ryanair are probably actually making the situation worse by taking on all these wannabe's when the green shoots of recovery occurs there will be a whole bunch of 500 hr jet guys who have been turfed out waiting in line for jobs elsewhere.
I agree but that's just one company who don't even pretend to be doing anything other than exploiting Wannabes willingness to work for less than nothing. Which is rational on their part.
Though more widely you may be right. Other airlines will also screw down crew costs by offering part time, starter contracts, taster menu jobs to Wannabes. Doubtless there will be a queue.
By their frantic grasping do Wannabes drive the balloon ever further from their fingertips.
Its so terribly sad to see the profession swirling around the plughole.
WWW
Though more widely you may be right. Other airlines will also screw down crew costs by offering part time, starter contracts, taster menu jobs to Wannabes. Doubtless there will be a queue.
By their frantic grasping do Wannabes drive the balloon ever further from their fingertips.
Its so terribly sad to see the profession swirling around the plughole.
WWW
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Midlands
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Its so terribly sad to see the profession swirling around the plughole.
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: everywhere
Posts: 620
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yeah and if you end up believing in fairy tales with your head buried in the sand and your bum in the air you'll get buggered......
The likes of CTCs Flexicrew deal, particularly with Easyjet is going to ruin things further, probably more so than Ryanair. It is a very definate 6 months then you're out. And the chance of getting a further contract is nigh on none with the next batch of cadets ready to fill in any gaps.
The likes of CTCs Flexicrew deal, particularly with Easyjet is going to ruin things further, probably more so than Ryanair. It is a very definate 6 months then you're out. And the chance of getting a further contract is nigh on none with the next batch of cadets ready to fill in any gaps.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Midlands
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
It's best to be neither a dreamer nor a Scrooge. There is a fine balance to strike - be realistic by all means, but swimming in an ocean of depression is not the way to make progress.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Midlands
Posts: 27
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Look, I am fortunate to be in a relatively (strictly speaking) comfortable position, but I'm well aware that there are millions who are not.
It's not a nice place to be right now, we all know that - I am not against being realistic and understanding what's going on in the real world. I am against people who make it their goal to consistently try to prove very negative points that I'm sure we're all aware of.
To put it simply, I am a great believer that the psychological effects of a recession can outweigh the financial effects. Consumer confidence - two key words, and it is the lack of this that is fuelling the depression. It does not help consumer confidence when people switch the TV on and watch how many people have been laid off. Or go online and see how many businesses have gone into administration. Or go on PPRuNe to read about what the next airline is to offer unpaid leave.
Personally I am boycotting this whole damn thing. So what? The '91 recession was nasty - in a way I am sick and tired of these 'phugoidial slumps', if there is such a phrase. I believe that if all 6 billion people on this planet (last time I counted) turned their attitudes right around and got positive, there would be a noticeable difference in how long the recession lasted.
Of course I could never prove that because it's impractical. It's like suggesting the solution to FR's continuous destruction of T + Cs could be solved by every wannabe saying no. It's a great answer, it would no doubt work, but it's impractical.
I count myself very fortunate to even have a job, and I go out of my way to ensure I will have it tomorrow.
I just believe in making the best out of a tricky situation...
It's not a nice place to be right now, we all know that - I am not against being realistic and understanding what's going on in the real world. I am against people who make it their goal to consistently try to prove very negative points that I'm sure we're all aware of.
To put it simply, I am a great believer that the psychological effects of a recession can outweigh the financial effects. Consumer confidence - two key words, and it is the lack of this that is fuelling the depression. It does not help consumer confidence when people switch the TV on and watch how many people have been laid off. Or go online and see how many businesses have gone into administration. Or go on PPRuNe to read about what the next airline is to offer unpaid leave.
Personally I am boycotting this whole damn thing. So what? The '91 recession was nasty - in a way I am sick and tired of these 'phugoidial slumps', if there is such a phrase. I believe that if all 6 billion people on this planet (last time I counted) turned their attitudes right around and got positive, there would be a noticeable difference in how long the recession lasted.
Of course I could never prove that because it's impractical. It's like suggesting the solution to FR's continuous destruction of T + Cs could be solved by every wannabe saying no. It's a great answer, it would no doubt work, but it's impractical.
I count myself very fortunate to even have a job, and I go out of my way to ensure I will have it tomorrow.
I just believe in making the best out of a tricky situation...
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: everywhere
Posts: 620
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I hear what you are saying and I am sure it is a factor. I am not saying be depressed, just be depressed when you are a low hour pilot getting screwed by the FTOs, the airlines, the economy and the country. Be happy in everything else you do......please. I do believe though that people need to be armed with the facts, via the medium of pprune, in order to make a SENSIBLE decision as to whether to begin training now, next year or ever. I wish I had listened a couple of years ago......and so, certainly from my point of view, I feel the need to communicate my truthful yet unfortunately negative views. It is done because there are inevitably points that are raised that others may have missed, not realised or been blinded from by the desperation to fly.