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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

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Old 28th Oct 2008, 12:43
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Repossessions jump 71% as arrears grow

Article


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Old 28th Oct 2008, 19:19
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Not exactly unexpected.

I notice the Times lists an astrologer as one of their top10 people who predicted this melt down
Money Central - Times Online - WBLG: Ten people who predicted the financial meltdown everyone except the government it would seem
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Old 28th Oct 2008, 20:51
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Hey guys why waste time reading this thread when we can pick up newspaper or switch on the news, will save us time clicking on all the links in the thread.
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Old 28th Oct 2008, 23:30
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Yeah, don't bother.
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 08:54
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Random Distraction

Originally Posted by smith
Hey guys why waste time reading this thread when we can pick up newspaper or switch on the news, will save us time clicking on all the links in the thread.
Funny you should mention all that mouse clicking. www.dontclick.it has been doing research for a no click web. I have my own web site for my farm and B+B and working on a 'No Click' version for my own purposes. Be interested to see how you cope with no clicks.
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 08:55
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Sterling is out of business.

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Old 29th Oct 2008, 11:35
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And the next merger...

BMI and Lufthansa, Sir Micheal selling up! For UK pilots, career choices are running low...
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 12:20
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Yep, more jobs going.

Only this year sterling were pioneering the MPL, who would have thought theyd go bust.

How many jobs will go at bmi, regional and baby?? I feel an invasion by de germans coming!!
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 12:22
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BMI being taken over by Lufthansa

UK airline BMI is being taken over by Germany's Lufthansa.
Lufthansa, which already owns a 30% stake in BMI minus one share, is buying the 50% of the company owned by BMI chairman Sir Michael Bishop.
BBC NEWS | Business | BMI being taken over by Lufthansa

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Old 29th Oct 2008, 13:09
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Stop the doom and gloom...!

Please stop all that...!
Many airlines are going bust, yes... Sterling joining the list today.
And the world economy is getting worse as days go by...
xxx
But... support your pilot training schools and academies, and TRTOs.
Even if few openings for the next 3 or 5 years, how will they do with no trainees...?
It is up to you all to continue dreaming of a future (that is highly questionable).
Of 100 dreamers... maybe 5 will get to sit in the flight deck of an airliner.
And what type of wages will that be in most cases...?
But I know, fATPL math studies do not include statistics.
Good luck to all.

Happy contrails
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 13:49
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Times Online - Virgin wants in on the Lufthansa deal with BMI to create Super-Carrier

Things potentially changing fast, I stand by an earlier post of mine, when the dust settles, choices will be limited...even for experienced guys...
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 15:13
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Twenty years from now...?

The way things go... I can foresee what airlines will be in - say 20 years...
At least for North America, South America, Europe, maybe even Asia.
xxx
Europe, will have one airline, call it Air Europe. Blue tail, gold stars...
It will be a consortium of BA. LH, AF, KL and IB...?
A few hubs, the leading capitals. High speed train service to nearest cities.
Nationalism helping, all Airbus fleet.
xxx
North America will end-up with final merge of two majors, AA and UA.
Absorbing AC, DL, SW and MX.
What name...? North American Airlines, maybe, or United American Airlines.
Same story for the hubs, the large cities will have one.
Fleet, there, likely to be all Boeing...
xxx
South America might get a Mercosur airline, controlled from Brazil.
Embraer airplanes... they might even design long range large planes.
Mercosur with Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay.
xxx
Another in Central/South America with the "Bolivar" nations...?
Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela, Peru, and the CenAmerica nations.
Mexico could join, or might decide to go with North American...
xxx
Asia... probably two or three airlines...?
One definitely for China+Taiwan. Another one for India.
And one for the East Asian nations, controlled by Singapore.
Incorporating SE Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia...?
Japan might stay by itself, or finally shaking hands with Korea...
xxx
Pilots...?
Certainly less pilots will be needed than for separate airlines.
Since each airline will have a single pool of pilots.
This for line operations, training and reserve crews.
Will pilots be with an airline for entire career...? Maybe yes, maybe no...
There might be yearly contracts only... depending on economics and traffic.
xxx
Seniority...?
There might be a list for captains, a list for first officers
Salaries based on years or experience, not by type (or size) of airplane.
So no need to get on "bigger A-380" to get top salary.
Result will be highly qualified pilots with 10,000+ hrs on given type.
Less training costs for numerous transitions and upgrade.
Hopefully, no more type rating required to be considered for hire.
Training bond maybe...? Obligation to remain (x years...?) with airline.
Prerequisite, maybe CPL, IR, ME and written ATPL to be hired initially.
xxx
Ooops, I forgot to mention... one worldwide Air Cargo (merged FedEx/UPS).

Happy contrails

P.S.
Do not know about Africa...
For Australia or NZ, they probably will be together as one.
Middle East - who knows, but all will be controlled from the UAE.
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 16:07
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Sterling are bust.

Their pilots are now joining the hundreds of other highly experienced pilots in Europe who can't get a flying job anywhere at any price.

There Are No Jobs. So far only tiddly little airlines like Sterling and XL have gone bust little to anyones suprise in the industry. I tell you now that at some point in the coming crisis several large airlines will shockingly go bust.

It will happen. It always does.

Whatever you were planning don't go flying until this storm has passed - the windsocks about to come off..



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Old 29th Oct 2008, 16:40
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Europe, will have one airline, call it Air Europe.
Harry Goodman will be having a right old laugh at that one...!!!!
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 16:51
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And Friday not only marks the release of A Quantum of Solace...but traditionally the end of Summer flying programmes! Winter is usually when it all goes Pete Tong

See you in Leicester Square!
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 17:25
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So far only tiddly little airlines like Sterling and XL have gone bust little to anyones suprise in the industry. I tell you now that at some point in the coming crisis several large airlines will shockingly go bust.
Can you specify which ones ? I was thinking about booking a holiday.
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 18:16
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Nope, sorry. Could be ANY airline. Any.

We haven't even seen the proper job losses yet. The problem with 2009 is that about a quarter of the passengers aren't going to turn up. That is the somewhat intractable problem to which airlines don't really have a solution due the crippling high fixed costs and the razor thin margins. Its a feature of the industry.

The market provides the solution by wiping out big chunks of the competition by means of bankruptcy.

Unfortunately Wannabes are then totally, utterly, remorselessly left out in the cold until many of them starve to death or are eaten by their loans.

If you want to see where we are in the cycle look at the following data on BA's profits since 1996. Note how low the lows are compared to the highs. Note the most recent figures record setting high. Guess what happens next. This is a reasonable proxy for the whole industry.


British Airways - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Don't try and beat the cycle.


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Old 29th Oct 2008, 20:09
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Don't try and beat the cycle
Don't try and beat the cylinder!
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 21:35
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except this wont be a perfect cycle will it, the next trough will be deeper than in 96. IMO cycles are a bit like a VSI, great for determining a trend but they only tell you the details once they've happened.
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Old 29th Oct 2008, 22:05
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Huh, looks like Sterling does it every 15 years or something. Just thinking what could be the next name.. Maerskling?
Norwegian will take over lot of Sterling routes, including domestic. So a guess many Sterling pilot will go there. I am just curios, what will happen to the jobless MPL pilots? Well, most of them were already unemployd even before the bust. What a farce the whole MPL thing.
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