Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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Superjumbo setback leads to U-turn by Emirates
2, WWW has nothing financial to gain if his viewpoint is accepted. I don't believe the same could be said for AW.
Further evidence emerged on Wednesday of the severe downturn in the aviation sector as Emirates pulled its giant Airbus A380s off the Dubai to New York route.
The airline blamed the weakening global economy for the decision, an embarrassing U-turn only eight months after its A380 services were launched with the New York route.
Emirates' failure to make New York work with the A380 has raised concerns about the large number of the double-decker aircraft ordered by the carrier. It is the A380's largest customer and has ordered 58 of the 500-seat aircraft. It operates two to New York, one to Heathrow and one to Sydney.
Within the aviation industry, some of the New York flights have been rumoured to be only 30 per cent full, although Emirates declined to comment on that yesterday.
The airline blamed the weakening global economy for the decision, an embarrassing U-turn only eight months after its A380 services were launched with the New York route.
Emirates' failure to make New York work with the A380 has raised concerns about the large number of the double-decker aircraft ordered by the carrier. It is the A380's largest customer and has ordered 58 of the 500-seat aircraft. It operates two to New York, one to Heathrow and one to Sydney.
Within the aviation industry, some of the New York flights have been rumoured to be only 30 per cent full, although Emirates declined to comment on that yesterday.
Thats quite suprising. If you can't make Dubai - New York work using an A380..
WWW
WWW
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Topslide6 you are absolutely right. All the FTOs and some posters on this thread are trying to do is give a false sense of confidence for their own benefit. This is also known as a 'con' short for confidence. Here is a meaning of the word con: Persons of any level of intelligence are vulnerable to deception by experienced con artists. Confidence tricks exploit human weaknesses like greed, dishonesty, vanity, but also virtues like honesty, compassion, or a naïve expectation of good faith on the part of the con artist. I think that sounds ALOT like some of the FTOs and people with an invested interest in airline training. Do NOT touch it for a long while. What's the worst that can happen? The airlines have insufficient qualified pilots to fill the spaces? GOOD - that would teach them but it would never happen. And the only reason I am saying this is to give some advice to people who are really considering training anytime soon...... NOT to have a go at anyone - BGS for instance is a fantastic training provider and I would recommend it strongly to anyone looking to do ATPLs when the time is right. Now may even be a good time to do your ATPLs whilst there is barely any money making opportunity to lose in the current economy. But actual flight training is to be avoided for a fair while to come.
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To give balance, Id like to add my thoughts on the thread
WWW quite rightly stands his corner regarding the current climate and undoubtable excellent knowledge of the financial world (for the record the graphs do look rather pretty but I have no idea what the mean either). His opinion doesnt come with some personal or organisational gain from the wanabee ie he has nothing to sell - always a good point of note for the wannabee. WWW has been around long enough to understand the industry so quite rightly communicates the need to be careful and to think ahead. A good source of an opinion for the wannabe
AW and BGS do have something to sell, but to be fair (for the record I attended BGS so base this on my own experience) they are one of the few organisations I have experience of in the flight training industry that were 'transparent' 'honest' and did exactly what it said on the tin - I would personally recomend them to family and or friends. Which is as good feedback as I can give about any organisation. Unfortunately some wouldnt get the same recomendation from myself and for the record this is not a slight at one of BGS oppos either - I didnt attend any other groundschool. Also a good source of an opinion
Not all the organisations out there in the mad world of flight training are as upstanding as BGS, I feel its important the main crux of the thread isnt missed or even derailed by our two esteemed gentlemen locking horns
It would be criminal however that the fact that these two informed opinions dont quite align, could derail the main message of this thread
Even in the good times it isnt easy to secure a permanent position even with all the ticks in the correct boxes - tread carefully now, plan for the future. Dont allow yourself to get sucked into the dream - securing the dream simply isnt that easy ... even in the good times.
More imprtantly - think carefully whom you take advice from with your thousands
Back down off my soapbox
WWW quite rightly stands his corner regarding the current climate and undoubtable excellent knowledge of the financial world (for the record the graphs do look rather pretty but I have no idea what the mean either). His opinion doesnt come with some personal or organisational gain from the wanabee ie he has nothing to sell - always a good point of note for the wannabee. WWW has been around long enough to understand the industry so quite rightly communicates the need to be careful and to think ahead. A good source of an opinion for the wannabe
AW and BGS do have something to sell, but to be fair (for the record I attended BGS so base this on my own experience) they are one of the few organisations I have experience of in the flight training industry that were 'transparent' 'honest' and did exactly what it said on the tin - I would personally recomend them to family and or friends. Which is as good feedback as I can give about any organisation. Unfortunately some wouldnt get the same recomendation from myself and for the record this is not a slight at one of BGS oppos either - I didnt attend any other groundschool. Also a good source of an opinion
Not all the organisations out there in the mad world of flight training are as upstanding as BGS, I feel its important the main crux of the thread isnt missed or even derailed by our two esteemed gentlemen locking horns
It would be criminal however that the fact that these two informed opinions dont quite align, could derail the main message of this thread
Even in the good times it isnt easy to secure a permanent position even with all the ticks in the correct boxes - tread carefully now, plan for the future. Dont allow yourself to get sucked into the dream - securing the dream simply isnt that easy ... even in the good times.
More imprtantly - think carefully whom you take advice from with your thousands
Back down off my soapbox
I REALLY SHOULDN'T BE HERE
I echo the advice of many of the contributors here; now is not the time to sign on an integrated course. There will be more contraction in the industry putting more experienced pilots out there looking for work. If you must train now go down the modular route to retain a degree of flexibility. If you are certain that integrated is the only way forward then wait until there are sustained and credible indicators that a recovery is underway. Getting your first job is largely about timing. Giving yourself the best chance of getting into this industry at the moment involves having some patience. If you are considering flight training at the moment don't plan on getting interviewed for your first job before autumn 2011 if not longer.
sr
sr
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The whole point of this thread is to educate people who are not in the industry to not be taken in by the marketing spiel of the FTO's.
The target audience has long since unplugged, due to the boredom of looking at yet another graph "educating them" about the fact we are in recession. I can just see it now; wannabe logs on to pprune sees a plunging graph and says "Good grief! Really? I hadn't heard we were in bad economic times!?!"
If help to wannabes is intended, perhaps the debate should move on from Sybil Fawlty's specialised subject on mastermind.
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Don't worry everyone an unnamed pilot factory recently told me that if I give them X amount of pounds I will be guarenteed a job at the end of my training!
Hurrah we are all saved!
Hurrah we are all saved!
Nobody can predict the future, but if you look at some of the investors forums there are people predicting a twenty year long Second Great Depression. Hopefully they are wrong. Hopefully...
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A couple of interesting articles that i came across this evening before going to bed:
Crisis sinks home for airlines as business travel demand slumps
Market Outlook: What lies beyond the downturn for airlines?
Crisis sinks home for airlines as business travel demand slumps
Buried on page 24 of Cathay Pacific's 2008 results is a single, sobering comment: "Front end collapse." This is not the unfortunate result of a landing gear mishap but an honest admission that first and business class cabins are increasingly lonely places.
The sharp drop in business travel began in September last year following the financial market meltdown. The transatlantic market was the first to suffer. Now, as we move towards the second quarter, the evidence that markets across the globe are suffering in equal and sometimes greater measure is overwhelming.
"It's not quite as bad as air freight, but it's heading that way," says Brian Pearce, IATA's chief economist, comparing the downward lurch of cargo with that of premium demand. Asian carriers, with their large cargo businesses, are feeling the pain on both fronts. Their region, which has prospered as the "workshop" of the world, has seen trade collapse, observes Pearce. International cargo traffic fell by 23% in January, says the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. This has had a profound effect on business travel. The volume of premium tickets sold in Asia is the weakest globally and the Pacific is hurting too, says Pearce.
The sharp drop in business travel began in September last year following the financial market meltdown. The transatlantic market was the first to suffer. Now, as we move towards the second quarter, the evidence that markets across the globe are suffering in equal and sometimes greater measure is overwhelming.
"It's not quite as bad as air freight, but it's heading that way," says Brian Pearce, IATA's chief economist, comparing the downward lurch of cargo with that of premium demand. Asian carriers, with their large cargo businesses, are feeling the pain on both fronts. Their region, which has prospered as the "workshop" of the world, has seen trade collapse, observes Pearce. International cargo traffic fell by 23% in January, says the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. This has had a profound effect on business travel. The volume of premium tickets sold in Asia is the weakest globally and the Pacific is hurting too, says Pearce.
The majority of the December year-end companies have now reported their 2008 results and given their perspectives on 2009. Against this background it is worth spending a few moments on some of the possible outcomes in the near- and medium-term, and to give some consideration to the factors that may determine the ability of the industry to create shareholder value in the next upswing.
Given that we all expect the next 12-18 months to be particularly challenging, there is little to be gained from speculating how bad it is likely to get before we reach the turning point. There are still cases where hope appears to be triumphing over expectation.
While my view has been that 2009, in terms of financial performance, will be worse than 2008, this is not a view that has been universally shared. One thing that has become increasingly evident over the last weeks is that the expected fall in the fuel price will be insufficient to counter the combined effects of the continuing deterioration in the economic environment, the reduction in revenue resulting from the continued fall in traffic, the deteriorating mix and generally lower fares.
Given that we all expect the next 12-18 months to be particularly challenging, there is little to be gained from speculating how bad it is likely to get before we reach the turning point. There are still cases where hope appears to be triumphing over expectation.
While my view has been that 2009, in terms of financial performance, will be worse than 2008, this is not a view that has been universally shared. One thing that has become increasingly evident over the last weeks is that the expected fall in the fuel price will be insufficient to counter the combined effects of the continuing deterioration in the economic environment, the reduction in revenue resulting from the continued fall in traffic, the deteriorating mix and generally lower fares.
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Do you want to suggest an airline that's going to place a fresh order 200+ aircraft and get them half price right now? No? Thought not.
Maybe not today but to get them "at the right price" he'll have to buy them at a
time like now.Then again, he also said that blow jobs would be offered in business class....
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The correlation is that it was a bad time for the airline industry and consequently for the wannabe job market, which is the whole point of this thread. Not that difficult to see, surely?
We are comparing apples with dragon fruit here so any comparison with 9/11 in my book is irrelevant and a non starter!
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"The parallel lies in the fact that pilots were being made redundant and the job market for wanabees was rubbish."
Were you there? Actually, the job market for wannabees in the UK post 9/11 was not bad at all. The short haul airlines and low costs were still expanding, Easy were so short they were taking OZ expats as FOs with 6 months to command. Most of the airline slump stories were poached from the international press and related to long haul legacy carriers.
Were you there? Actually, the job market for wannabees in the UK post 9/11 was not bad at all. The short haul airlines and low costs were still expanding, Easy were so short they were taking OZ expats as FOs with 6 months to command. Most of the airline slump stories were poached from the international press and related to long haul legacy carriers.
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Watch for the IATA issuing a revised forecast for the industry this week.
Last forecast was for a $2.5bn loss for the industry in 2009 based off a fall of 3% in passenger numbers.... their last comment was "this is now looking optimistic.... the Global numbers are bad and the Asian numbers are a nightmare".
The slowdown in Japan and China was described as "shocking". They also said about "The world has never seen such a fall".
The IATA is an industry body and has no vested interest in talking down the situation. In fact you could say the opposite.
So yes this is an "airline slump story"... one that hasn't come from "the press" but is founded in harsh reality.... in fact it is so bad even the main industry bodies are calling it a disaster.
So wannabees if you don't to listen to WWW saying armageddon is upon us, or Alex who needs bums on seats at his training organisation maybe listen to the IATA. (health warning: the IATA stats do not include lowcos... but you can get their traffic stats from their websites.... Ryanair c+7% yoy in Feb(the lowest yoy rate in Ryanairs history and still slowing).... Easy -6% yoy in Feb).
For a list of IATA members... pretty reflective of the global situation i would say... Current Airline Members
Last forecast was for a $2.5bn loss for the industry in 2009 based off a fall of 3% in passenger numbers.... their last comment was "this is now looking optimistic.... the Global numbers are bad and the Asian numbers are a nightmare".
The slowdown in Japan and China was described as "shocking". They also said about "The world has never seen such a fall".
The IATA is an industry body and has no vested interest in talking down the situation. In fact you could say the opposite.
So yes this is an "airline slump story"... one that hasn't come from "the press" but is founded in harsh reality.... in fact it is so bad even the main industry bodies are calling it a disaster.
So wannabees if you don't to listen to WWW saying armageddon is upon us, or Alex who needs bums on seats at his training organisation maybe listen to the IATA. (health warning: the IATA stats do not include lowcos... but you can get their traffic stats from their websites.... Ryanair c+7% yoy in Feb(the lowest yoy rate in Ryanairs history and still slowing).... Easy -6% yoy in Feb).
For a list of IATA members... pretty reflective of the global situation i would say... Current Airline Members
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Perhaps this is the way to go:
http://www.pprune.org/terms-endearme...ebay-free.html
I'm all for people using their noggins to better their career prospects, but this has surely gone too far!
This guy is offering his services for free
.........
I sympathise - been made redundant twice before, horrible place to be, but prostituting yourself is not only degeading, but gives our Airlines even more leverage to chip away at our already ever decreasing T&C's.
Mate, whoever you are, get it off ebay and good luck with the continued search for a job.
Link: Real Life Boeing 737 First Officer for FREE! on eBay, also, Other, Everything Else (end time 23-Jan-09 23:22:23 GMT)
For those who don't want to open the link, copy of text in ad:
Yes, i am a fully qualified Boeing 737 first officer that cannot find a job due to this stupid credit crunch- i am offering myself to you to fly Boeing 737 aircraft for free. I will happily work for anyone anywhere at anytime. Danger zones....not a problem.
I am 22, ridiculously good looking and have a great CV that will blow your socks off.
Trained at a top integrated flying school in the UK.
Any questions drop me an email.
This guy is offering his services for free
.........I sympathise - been made redundant twice before, horrible place to be, but prostituting yourself is not only degeading, but gives our Airlines even more leverage to chip away at our already ever decreasing T&C's.
Mate, whoever you are, get it off ebay and good luck with the continued search for a job.
Link: Real Life Boeing 737 First Officer for FREE! on eBay, also, Other, Everything Else (end time 23-Jan-09 23:22:23 GMT)
For those who don't want to open the link, copy of text in ad:
Yes, i am a fully qualified Boeing 737 first officer that cannot find a job due to this stupid credit crunch- i am offering myself to you to fly Boeing 737 aircraft for free. I will happily work for anyone anywhere at anytime. Danger zones....not a problem.
I am 22, ridiculously good looking and have a great CV that will blow your socks off.
Trained at a top integrated flying school in the UK.
Any questions drop me an email.
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The worlds banks, financial and building industries have been the big spenders in airline travel for either business or leisure.Its not rocket science to work out who's not travelling and why.
I cannot foresee any upturn until the banks get there houses in order and start travelling again.
Architects are a good barometer.When they start seeing an upturn in their work you know in 18 months to 2 years time things will be on the up.
I cannot foresee any upturn until the banks get there houses in order and start travelling again.
Architects are a good barometer.When they start seeing an upturn in their work you know in 18 months to 2 years time things will be on the up.
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Could we get to Paris for the weekend for a tenner in 2001?
You still can't! Anyway,
You still can't! Anyway,
Well I have many times but I have an electron card.
Last edited by smith; 22nd Mar 2009 at 09:12.
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I am not suggesting thinks are not dire, I'm just saying there is no comparison between today's situation and 9/11. It was more of a percieved downturn post 9/11 the media inflated the "fear of flying" and the war mongering did make people scared to fly but not in the numbers predicted. There was also SARS and foot and mouth that was stopping people flying at that time but in no way was it as massive as this, in fact I think 9/11 was a turning point for FR and thats when they really took off. If you look at pax figures post 9/11 they really start to shoot up then. As AW says it hit the USA more than Europe and maybe the legacy carriers slightly more but the loco's actually thrived on it. My brother in law was a BA747 SFO at the time and he was terrified of losing his job then, no-one at BA got cut then as the percieved threat never materialised, same at VS ther were no lay-offs at that time. This time around its not a percieved threat it is an actuality.
For those reasons I can not see how we can compare the two situations so I'm out!
For those reasons I can not see how we can compare the two situations so I'm out!