Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us
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WWW,
your daily mail days are numbered. It seems you are the phantom spreading low confidence amongst the airline industry.
From now on, I'm only going to listen to afraz, fabbe92 and RVR800.
your daily mail days are numbered. It seems you are the phantom spreading low confidence amongst the airline industry.
From now on, I'm only going to listen to afraz, fabbe92 and RVR800.
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It may be boring but it is a fact, don't bury your head in the sand. I can't believe people wont take good advice. The power of positive thought will not pay your debts and it will not get you a job, bad things DO happen. I WISH I had taken WWWs advice two years ago and Scroggs as well, and I have had a relatively risk free way of training. Airline pilots should not be risk takers and anyone even remotely considering training now is a BIG risk taker and deluded. And that goes for training with the likes of CTC or OAA or anywhere else - and I don't think it displays very good decision making either. I am not talking about the poor buggers who started before all this happened, people could be forgiven thinking WWW was a doom monger, but he was completely right. And not to the point of small detail like $200 a barrel perhaps but HE WAS COMPLETELY RIGHT AND IS STILL.You are doing it just because you want to and because all other work is boring and hard graft at the moment. It is not the right time and those are not the right reasons. EVERYONE I know bar a few deluded fools who believe in the ' I must, I must, I must increase my bust' technique are very worried and regretful of training - but we didn't have the warning backed up by facts like you guys and girls do. Sure you can buy a type rating with Ryanair or some other airline and pay to work but it is all on a very short term contract basis and you can be chopped out pretty quickly if needs be and the only people who will be stuffed are you and your families left with £100000 of secured loan on your homes. 6 months flying will NOT service your loan, it may fulfil your dream momentarily, but it will NOT service your loan. Think about it. I am not qualified to give detailed advice on the economy but the worst must be still to come, I'll fall through my arse if it has passed us or does anytime soon. The economy still has momentum from Christmas and the shock of it has helped carry things along a bit. At the moment companies are being as proactive as they can be but eventually, as a function of human nature, people will get tired of diminshing results. That coupled with the fact that the 'results' and statistics that people are quoting are probably 3 -4 months old - around the time of the busy Christmas period, so think how bad they are now. PLEASE DO NOT kid yourselves, things are not good at the moment and things are not going to recover in 2009 or 2010 and beyond that, who knows. I am not trying to stop competition from training, I am honestly just trying to do the right thing, I LOVE flying but I would not begin training anywhere near now.
PPRuNe Secret Agent!
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Quant...
Good luck to you, but be aware...
This is just HUGE, and I mean colossal...i've just been through a merger with a plan for £100 million of synergies, this eventually became £150 million...a merger between BA and Iberia could easily become £500 million overnight, maybe even more...have a serious think where airlines are going to make savings...you cut airframes and you can reduce personnel, from Ops to Engineers, from Cabin Crew to Pilots...
Have a long hard think before spending any of your cash, because, and I personally don't buy into the doom and gloom shenanigans, it is what it is, you adjust, but as a 200 hour fATPL holder...you ain't gonna get a job...end of.
Good luck to you, but be aware...
£400 million of synergies identified.
Have a long hard think before spending any of your cash, because, and I personally don't buy into the doom and gloom shenanigans, it is what it is, you adjust, but as a 200 hour fATPL holder...you ain't gonna get a job...end of.
Umm, I never said $200 oil. Ever. I actually cautioned that it was a bubble. But hey, whats historical fact amongst discussion forum friends?
Oh - and house prices everywhere have plummeted, will continue to do so and its nothing to do with confidence or anything other than a CORRECTION of a BUBBLE. Many otherwise sensible people cannot understand this. With time it will eventually sink in. I think. Maybe.
Good post TheBeak - best of luck.
WWW
Oh - and house prices everywhere have plummeted, will continue to do so and its nothing to do with confidence or anything other than a CORRECTION of a BUBBLE. Many otherwise sensible people cannot understand this. With time it will eventually sink in. I think. Maybe.
Good post TheBeak - best of luck.
WWW
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The point is, there is no need for people to spend £100,000 on training. When you step back and look at the big picture, it's a ridiculous sum of money to spend to get to sit in a jet somewhere.
Let's say you went down the Ryanair road (and that's a big gamble nonetheless) - if you keep your costs down you could be looking at £60,000 of debt max (still a horrendous amount of money to owe).
And I beg to differ - I know of four people in Ryanair, which is not a good figure to run statistics from, but they are all still happily (yes, happily) employed, and two have been there a couple of years now. Sure, only one of them is based in the UK, but this 'six month' nonsense is exactly that - nonsense.
Whether you are flying for a living, or training, or grounded due to the economy, I think we can all agree on one thing - keep your options open and don't owe more than you can comfortably pay off.
WWW, sometimes it saddens me to see what you write. And that's got nothing to do with what you say about the economy - I don't need to come on here to see what's going on in the world. I'm talking about you as a person - I can see you care a lot for people's wellbeing on here, and that's very charitable of you. Whatever people say, you provide that very important voice from the other side, so well done. I can also see that you love your job, but fear for what it's going to become. I also thank you for the advice you gave me when I was a few years younger, ajinstansted
Yes, I continue to train - am I mad? Possibly. But unfortunately I have nothing else. Importantly, if I come out the other end into a vicious storm, I have my backups, and I can afford to keep myself current. This is why I continue. In a way, I am treating training as a small break from the slog of work. If I manage to locate a flying job at the end, that's simply a huge bonus.
Like hell am I ever going to pay for a type rating though. To those who do, good luck, and I understand why you do it. But unfortunately, it leads to the further degradation of our industry - it would be lovely to see people hold back, if only for a few months. You'd be surprised at what would change.
Cheers, Jack.
Let's say you went down the Ryanair road (and that's a big gamble nonetheless) - if you keep your costs down you could be looking at £60,000 of debt max (still a horrendous amount of money to owe).
And I beg to differ - I know of four people in Ryanair, which is not a good figure to run statistics from, but they are all still happily (yes, happily) employed, and two have been there a couple of years now. Sure, only one of them is based in the UK, but this 'six month' nonsense is exactly that - nonsense.
Whether you are flying for a living, or training, or grounded due to the economy, I think we can all agree on one thing - keep your options open and don't owe more than you can comfortably pay off.
WWW, sometimes it saddens me to see what you write. And that's got nothing to do with what you say about the economy - I don't need to come on here to see what's going on in the world. I'm talking about you as a person - I can see you care a lot for people's wellbeing on here, and that's very charitable of you. Whatever people say, you provide that very important voice from the other side, so well done. I can also see that you love your job, but fear for what it's going to become. I also thank you for the advice you gave me when I was a few years younger, ajinstansted
Yes, I continue to train - am I mad? Possibly. But unfortunately I have nothing else. Importantly, if I come out the other end into a vicious storm, I have my backups, and I can afford to keep myself current. This is why I continue. In a way, I am treating training as a small break from the slog of work. If I manage to locate a flying job at the end, that's simply a huge bonus.
Like hell am I ever going to pay for a type rating though. To those who do, good luck, and I understand why you do it. But unfortunately, it leads to the further degradation of our industry - it would be lovely to see people hold back, if only for a few months. You'd be surprised at what would change.
Cheers, Jack.
Give us your postcode then.
WWW
WWW
Oh yeah, I was forgetting that Scotland is immune to the crisis and that house prices only ever go up in Edinburgh.
Despite the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland I'm sure everything will be fine.
property snake -- search -- find falling house prices in your area Searching EH1 shows four pages of price drops in that postcode.
WWW
Despite the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland I'm sure everything will be fine.
property snake -- search -- find falling house prices in your area Searching EH1 shows four pages of price drops in that postcode.
WWW
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WWW, agree all areas in England have experienced an average fall in property value. However, it appears there has been monthly growth in certain areas, 3.8% in Redcar and Cleveland....
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/asse...hpi2722009.pdf
http://www1.landregistry.gov.uk/asse...hpi2722009.pdf
Seriously? You're seriously going to take a position that house prices in Scotland are different to every other part of the UK, France, Spain, Ireland, America, Italy etc. etc.
You're very slightly behind the curve time wise but its just a lag and is driven by the same factors that apply to the rest of the Developed world.
The UK is experiencing its worst house price crash on record. There are no reasons to expect abatement any time soon. Of course if a few Scottish banks hadn't lent quite so...
WWW
You're very slightly behind the curve time wise but its just a lag and is driven by the same factors that apply to the rest of the Developed world.
The UK is experiencing its worst house price crash on record. There are no reasons to expect abatement any time soon. Of course if a few Scottish banks hadn't lent quite so...
WWW
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''The UK was one of the worst performing markets, where house prices fell 16 per cent in 2008, second only to Baltic states such as Estonia, where prices dropped 23 per cent but which has a relatively small residential market.
The UK housing market continued to weaken last month according to the Halifax house price index yesterday. Prices fell by 2.3 per cent in February, more than reversing an upward bounce in January. In the three months to February, the decline was 3.6 per cent.''
From:
FT.com / UK - Property prices fall across Europe
So how about looking at the bigger picture rather than a very specific postcode? That is that house prices across the UK are falling. There will be areas that plateau or even show a slight 'upward bounce', perhaps because not much is coming on the market - to be expected in more remote postcodes in Scotland - simple supply and demand, however the national and international trend shows the UK to be declining and very badly relative to the rest of Europe.
And in terms of the point of whether to borrow £60000 or £100000, who cares, both are going to be a bitch to pay back with no job, and as I see it, you may as well go bankrupt for the £100000. At least get your moneys worth. I am sure that people who bought a type rating a year ago with Ryanair are doing pretty well and probably wont be made redundant but we are talking about now and the future for low hour pilots and the future doesn't look good, and buying a comparably expensive Ryanair type rating right now is again VERY risky. It could very easily be a case of last in, first out. But who knows, we do not, all you can do is make a sensible judgement, which it doesn't sound like alot of people are doing.
Sure there are jobs out there but there aren't many with any kind of career to them in terms of longevity and of those there are even fewer which are properly paid - unless you have lots of hours and qualifications, which you need a job to get, which is what we were talking about in terms of whether one should start training now......the answer remains an emphatic NO.
Anyone who starts traing now is a big risk taker and in MOST cases (of course not all) is doing so with someone elses assets i.e. their parents homes or savings and I think that is an incredibly selfish thing to do. The same goes for anyone with a partner who is doing it with their own savings, you would be absoultely crazy to start, I have seen guys lose girlfriends from how consuming training is alone without the added strain of the current and VERY MUCH THE FUTURE financial times. There is a saying: Don't let the perfume of the prize out weigh the stink of the risk.
But if you just HAVE to do it, I hope in the interview with the airline or other flying organisation that you think you are going to get, that the interviewer asks you why you decided to take such a big risk and make such a poor decision. After all they will be entrusting you with an extremely expensive asset, which is insured at huge cost, emblazened with their brand no doubt and containg a number of peoples lives.
As I said, you simply can't blame people who are too far into it, I am one of those people, but for anyone to actually start now would be absurd. At least give it two years......Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, the truth hurts, they are all cliches for a reason - because they are emphatic wisdom. And right now alot of people are looking a gift hose in the mouth and the truth is causing people a great deal of agony in terms of doing the right thing. WWW is talking nothing but sense, it is free advice backed up by facts. It doesn't get much better. I wish I had listened......
The UK housing market continued to weaken last month according to the Halifax house price index yesterday. Prices fell by 2.3 per cent in February, more than reversing an upward bounce in January. In the three months to February, the decline was 3.6 per cent.''
From:
FT.com / UK - Property prices fall across Europe
So how about looking at the bigger picture rather than a very specific postcode? That is that house prices across the UK are falling. There will be areas that plateau or even show a slight 'upward bounce', perhaps because not much is coming on the market - to be expected in more remote postcodes in Scotland - simple supply and demand, however the national and international trend shows the UK to be declining and very badly relative to the rest of Europe.
And in terms of the point of whether to borrow £60000 or £100000, who cares, both are going to be a bitch to pay back with no job, and as I see it, you may as well go bankrupt for the £100000. At least get your moneys worth. I am sure that people who bought a type rating a year ago with Ryanair are doing pretty well and probably wont be made redundant but we are talking about now and the future for low hour pilots and the future doesn't look good, and buying a comparably expensive Ryanair type rating right now is again VERY risky. It could very easily be a case of last in, first out. But who knows, we do not, all you can do is make a sensible judgement, which it doesn't sound like alot of people are doing.
Sure there are jobs out there but there aren't many with any kind of career to them in terms of longevity and of those there are even fewer which are properly paid - unless you have lots of hours and qualifications, which you need a job to get, which is what we were talking about in terms of whether one should start training now......the answer remains an emphatic NO.
Anyone who starts traing now is a big risk taker and in MOST cases (of course not all) is doing so with someone elses assets i.e. their parents homes or savings and I think that is an incredibly selfish thing to do. The same goes for anyone with a partner who is doing it with their own savings, you would be absoultely crazy to start, I have seen guys lose girlfriends from how consuming training is alone without the added strain of the current and VERY MUCH THE FUTURE financial times. There is a saying: Don't let the perfume of the prize out weigh the stink of the risk.
But if you just HAVE to do it, I hope in the interview with the airline or other flying organisation that you think you are going to get, that the interviewer asks you why you decided to take such a big risk and make such a poor decision. After all they will be entrusting you with an extremely expensive asset, which is insured at huge cost, emblazened with their brand no doubt and containg a number of peoples lives.
As I said, you simply can't blame people who are too far into it, I am one of those people, but for anyone to actually start now would be absurd. At least give it two years......Don't look a gift horse in the mouth, the truth hurts, they are all cliches for a reason - because they are emphatic wisdom. And right now alot of people are looking a gift hose in the mouth and the truth is causing people a great deal of agony in terms of doing the right thing. WWW is talking nothing but sense, it is free advice backed up by facts. It doesn't get much better. I wish I had listened......
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Believe it or not, the entire Scottish population do not live solely in Edinburgh.
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TheBeak, I agree with you - I'm not arguing about the global downturn, I'm only pointing out that facts need to be, err, 'factual' and relevant. My Scottish friend pointed-out that in his part of the world house prices had held, this was countered with a postcode quote from a site that specialises in highlighting reduced house prices. Both quotes are true but their relevance is questionable.
Anyway, I've said my bit before on this thread. There is no doubt that the World (and therefore the aviation industry) is in for a very tough ride. I just see no need in perpetuating this particular discussion with endless statistics. A precis of the whole thing would take about 500 words, probably less. Maybe the thread should get a sticky and then be locked until there is something new to talk about? Anyone who still hasn't got the message after trawling through the scores of pages that currently exist probably deserves to go through a Darwinian selection process.
Anyway, must go, I'm about to win the lottery.
PS. Two flying job offers this week. Not airline stuff but, as someone previously said, some of the pain can be ameliorated by entertaining diversity.
Anyway, I've said my bit before on this thread. There is no doubt that the World (and therefore the aviation industry) is in for a very tough ride. I just see no need in perpetuating this particular discussion with endless statistics. A precis of the whole thing would take about 500 words, probably less. Maybe the thread should get a sticky and then be locked until there is something new to talk about? Anyone who still hasn't got the message after trawling through the scores of pages that currently exist probably deserves to go through a Darwinian selection process.
Anyway, must go, I'm about to win the lottery.
PS. Two flying job offers this week. Not airline stuff but, as someone previously said, some of the pain can be ameliorated by entertaining diversity.
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That's quite correct as the scottish have migrated south to number 10 and the rest of whitehall
Prices in your street may not have fallen but there's nothing wrong with a website that specilaises in listing falling property prices. Its all factual. If you think I can't find a dropped price within 10 miles of Inverness of anywhere else then you're wrong. The Scottish market has fewer props than many other small regions of the UK.
Continually talking about the continuing crisis is also perfectly legitimate.
FTO's continue to relentlessly market an upbeat prospectus..
WWW
Continually talking about the continuing crisis is also perfectly legitimate.
FTO's continue to relentlessly market an upbeat prospectus..
WWW
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If you think I can't find a dropped price within 10 miles of Inverness of anywhere else then you're wrong.
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For IV2 1HS:
Postal District: Inverness
1998:£56,433, 2003:£110,591, 2006:£159,472, 2007:£184,458 2008: £178,179
From: House prices by postcode
This portion of the conversation is really rather petty but in order to prove a point......
Postal District: Inverness
1998:£56,433, 2003:£110,591, 2006:£159,472, 2007:£184,458 2008: £178,179
From: House prices by postcode
This portion of the conversation is really rather petty but in order to prove a point......
Last edited by TheBeak; 7th Mar 2009 at 20:53. Reason: Tidyness
You couldn't afford my pocket money never mind upping it..
Within 5 miles radius search on Rightmove of Inverness:
5 bedroom house for sale in Ardersier, Inverness, Highland, IV2
5 beds, many acres, started at £750k on June 12th now begging at £625k
Perhaps something at the other end of the market with 2 beds....
2 bedroom flat for sale in Apartment 5, Lentran House, Kirhill, Inverness-Shire, IV3 8RL, IV3
Started at £250k now at £230k since Oct 16th and still asking..
That's off the top of Property Bee's head within 60 seconds of searching. Can I have my pocket money increase in gold please?
WWW
Within 5 miles radius search on Rightmove of Inverness:
5 bedroom house for sale in Ardersier, Inverness, Highland, IV2
5 beds, many acres, started at £750k on June 12th now begging at £625k
Perhaps something at the other end of the market with 2 beds....
2 bedroom flat for sale in Apartment 5, Lentran House, Kirhill, Inverness-Shire, IV3 8RL, IV3
Started at £250k now at £230k since Oct 16th and still asking..
That's off the top of Property Bee's head within 60 seconds of searching. Can I have my pocket money increase in gold please?
WWW