Jonty - I'll happily stand by that posting of mine in 2003.
We were just about to enter GW2, it did look like MyTravel might go bust, we were only 18 months from Sept11th and there were a lot of ex-Sabena and Swiss and other experienced pilots looking for work. Doing the PPL, some Groundschool and some hours wasn't a bad plan and it isn't now. No need to rush into an Integrated course or Multi IR or CPL when the wx radar is painting so much magenta.
For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.
Not withstanding that I've always been here since this forum was switched on I refute that I have only one record and that its always doom. I've acknowledged many times in 2005 and 2006 that we were firmly in Boom territory and that jobs were aplenty.
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If I might point you to
another posting I made in 2003 on this forum on 5th May:
http://www.pprune.org/forums/showpos...9&postcount=14
Firstly, on a personal note, well done Luke - glad to see things worked out for you...
I am certain that things will really pick up in two years time - aviation is going to go the same way as it is in the US and that means 20% sustained growth for the next decade to reach US like levels. Just wait until there is an easyJet France, and Ryanair Germany and - sadly - no longer a Go-Fly Spain operating at the same levels as in the UK... Business travellers are demanding frequency in smaller aircraft - that still need 2 pilots.
Long Haul is looking good as well. The internet is making freight be shipped half way accross the world to a consumer who wants it delivered in 24hrs. Huge business markets in Latin America and China are barely yet exploited. Long haul leisure travel is the preserve of the very rich Western countries at the moment. But boy is that going to change as super jumbos and deregulation drive down prices and Westernisation provides both the money and the cultural influences to make people from India holiday in Florida or people in Brazil take a week in London.
Every airport in europe is festooned with cranes and bulldozers. A lot of pilots who entered the profession in the last boom - the 1970's package holiday - are now in their 50's.
This is a growth industry and make no mistake about it.
However. Spending the next 2 years servicing a massive debt whilst eeking out a few single engine hours for badger all money is going to be pretty damn miserable. I feel for all the people in that position I really do.
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And do you know what Jonty? I was pretty much right.
2003 and 2004 were pants for Wannabes. By 2005 things were ticking along nicely and 2006/7 were boom years. I've a long history here of commenting on the industry and the impact events in it will have on Wannabes.
I may err on the side of blackness A LITTLE but then that's because there is a whole industry out there arguing things are always sunny plus Wannabes have a natural enthusiasm to get on with their training and new career dream.
Just as in 2002 and 2003 if you could sit out 2008 & 2009 without watching your ratings lapse and your loan charges mount then that would be A Good Thing. I was trying to warn about this crisis from August last year but until its on the nine o' clock news people don't really believe you and won't listen anyway.
WWW