Growing evidence that the downturn is upon us....
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acuba 290 - I only wish.....!!!! I struggle to compose the simplest of posts, it's a wonder I'm able to read and write, let a lone fly an aircraft!
To get back on topic….
Of late, several parts of the country have witnessed a steady reduction in house prices, although, many would argue this as catastrophic; I am somewhat of the opposite view. Of course, there will be those who find themselves with negative equity in a property, not nice. Despite this, we as a nation have encouraged heavily inflated housing prices to such an extent, very few first time buyers are in a stable financial position to purchase a first time property. Surely in such a climate it is impossible to sustain financial stability. However unpleasant this process may appear in the short term, over a longer duration of time, how can this process be considered a bad thing.
To get back on topic….
Of late, several parts of the country have witnessed a steady reduction in house prices, although, many would argue this as catastrophic; I am somewhat of the opposite view. Of course, there will be those who find themselves with negative equity in a property, not nice. Despite this, we as a nation have encouraged heavily inflated housing prices to such an extent, very few first time buyers are in a stable financial position to purchase a first time property. Surely in such a climate it is impossible to sustain financial stability. However unpleasant this process may appear in the short term, over a longer duration of time, how can this process be considered a bad thing.
A very evidential day today unfortunately.
If you accept the historical pattern that a house price crash leads to a recession which in turn sees airline failures which results in a Wannabe disaster, then, todays news is grave.
You have the Royal Institute of Chatered Surveyors reporting the worst figures since 1978 of members reporting falls. For the first time these were nationwide including Scotland. Then the housing Minister Caroline Flint leaks the Governments view that prices will be AT LEAST 5% - 10% by the end of the year and they don't know how bad it will get.
Redrow the builders are laying off 15% of their staff as sales plummet by at least 20%. Inflation has broached 3% on the CPI measure. Sterling slides against the Dollar and Euro.
It is absolutely crystal clear that a house price crash is occurring NOW. Combine soaring inflation with increasing ticket prices due to oil and it is obvious that the consumer will not be buying as many tickets, holidays or goods in 2008/9.
Be VERY VERY careful about handing over any kind of advance payment for any training in the coming months. I fully expect some training organisations to go bust in the storms ahead. It happens every time and every time there is always one chump who handed over a big cheque the week before.
Don't be that chump,
WWW
If you accept the historical pattern that a house price crash leads to a recession which in turn sees airline failures which results in a Wannabe disaster, then, todays news is grave.
You have the Royal Institute of Chatered Surveyors reporting the worst figures since 1978 of members reporting falls. For the first time these were nationwide including Scotland. Then the housing Minister Caroline Flint leaks the Governments view that prices will be AT LEAST 5% - 10% by the end of the year and they don't know how bad it will get.
Redrow the builders are laying off 15% of their staff as sales plummet by at least 20%. Inflation has broached 3% on the CPI measure. Sterling slides against the Dollar and Euro.
It is absolutely crystal clear that a house price crash is occurring NOW. Combine soaring inflation with increasing ticket prices due to oil and it is obvious that the consumer will not be buying as many tickets, holidays or goods in 2008/9.
Be VERY VERY careful about handing over any kind of advance payment for any training in the coming months. I fully expect some training organisations to go bust in the storms ahead. It happens every time and every time there is always one chump who handed over a big cheque the week before.
Don't be that chump,
WWW
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Oil prices are forcing flight schools to charge more for training.
I think that actual oil prices are unsustainable and that prices will fall sharply starting from end of the year, begin next year.
But oil prices at 200$ are beyond fantasy because demand would decrease significantly beyond 150$. Yes, countries like China and India and their booming economies enhance demand, but these countries can't pay crude at 150$ and the equivalent price in their currency, so demand in these regions will decrease.
At 150$ U.S. airlines would have to ground most of their aircraft waiting for oil prices to drop, and wait for Uncle Sam to print more money.
I don't think 150$ per barrel wil be reached unless someone starts propagating rumours that crude can be as good as olive oil to dress the salad.
A good read for wannabe economists:
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
I think that actual oil prices are unsustainable and that prices will fall sharply starting from end of the year, begin next year.
But oil prices at 200$ are beyond fantasy because demand would decrease significantly beyond 150$. Yes, countries like China and India and their booming economies enhance demand, but these countries can't pay crude at 150$ and the equivalent price in their currency, so demand in these regions will decrease.
At 150$ U.S. airlines would have to ground most of their aircraft waiting for oil prices to drop, and wait for Uncle Sam to print more money.
I don't think 150$ per barrel wil be reached unless someone starts propagating rumours that crude can be as good as olive oil to dress the salad.
A good read for wannabe economists:
http://www.wtrg.com/prices.htm
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WWW raises a very good point about paying in advance. It should be common sense but unfortunately far to many chase the allusive 5% discount and hand over wedges of cash and see their dreams go up in smoke.
I started out on my PPL way back in 2000 so have probably seen more cycles in this industry than most wannabes. Search on schools like PPSC and SFT if you don't believe that it can happen. Both were big schools that everyone thought were untouchable. I remember buying some old ATPL manuals cheap off a guy that had lost it all and his dream along with it. He ran out of cash and called it a day. Its real and it happens and it will happen again. The sad truth is that the same operators will take their crusty old Seneca and 152 and set up the following month under a new name and the phoenix will rise again. There are far to many schools as it is offering an inferior product and a shortage of cash coming into the industry will make it harder for them to survive.
I started out on my PPL way back in 2000 so have probably seen more cycles in this industry than most wannabes. Search on schools like PPSC and SFT if you don't believe that it can happen. Both were big schools that everyone thought were untouchable. I remember buying some old ATPL manuals cheap off a guy that had lost it all and his dream along with it. He ran out of cash and called it a day. Its real and it happens and it will happen again. The sad truth is that the same operators will take their crusty old Seneca and 152 and set up the following month under a new name and the phoenix will rise again. There are far to many schools as it is offering an inferior product and a shortage of cash coming into the industry will make it harder for them to survive.
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I have actually worked in Markets with Stocks and shares for sometime - Specific qualifications to go with it.
I wont go into my own "opinions" on whats going on at the moment but I have to say just reading the vast majority of this thread has me thinking even harder about my decision.
I had almost made my mind up to go o either Waterford Pilot training in SE Ireland or Jerez in Spain..paying the full whack of approx 100k (living exp etc) but now I read the pessimism on here and think to myself that if I was to start the course later in the year I would wind up stuck with no job, no experience and no more money!!
what some of the more experienced guys think??
Cheers
I wont go into my own "opinions" on whats going on at the moment but I have to say just reading the vast majority of this thread has me thinking even harder about my decision.
I had almost made my mind up to go o either Waterford Pilot training in SE Ireland or Jerez in Spain..paying the full whack of approx 100k (living exp etc) but now I read the pessimism on here and think to myself that if I was to start the course later in the year I would wind up stuck with no job, no experience and no more money!!
what some of the more experienced guys think??
Cheers
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Trapattoni
if you have lots of savings go for it integrated route (somewhere like OAT as you will have better job prospects at the end). I don't know much about OAT but out of all of my pilot friends (6 of them), only one who trained at OAT got job in airline.
If you are just average earner like most of us than do modular route and definitely keep your current job. Working as stock market analyst, you will always be able to afford flying.
If you are just average earner like most of us than do modular route and definitely keep your current job. Working as stock market analyst, you will always be able to afford flying.
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Its not about the money at all John, You could pay me 200k a year and I still wouldnt want to keep on going with it...
By the way why would i go to OAT if you say none of your friends got jobs with airlines coming from there?
DOing it while I work is not an option either - I am either going for it or holding back you know?
By the way why would i go to OAT if you say none of your friends got jobs with airlines coming from there?
DOing it while I work is not an option either - I am either going for it or holding back you know?
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By the way why would i go to OAT if you say none of your friends got jobs with airlines coming from there?
I'm not convinced though that this is useful advice - searching this forum will prove fruitful. Remember, success is more often down to the individual than the company they train with. As said previously, proportionally more graduates from OAA have found (bought) their first job with Ryanair in recent months. This says more about the size of their wallet than the help they got from the training provider.
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Could not agree more !
Don't these people know that there is nothing more the press like than bad news? writing a story that you can worry people, use a lot of hype and get the paper sold due to the disaster headline has always been the easy way for the hack to go. Balance in fleet street? unlikely I think.
After pages of this hyped gloom & doom I,m off to the "dress code" thread for a bit of fun.
Don't these people know that there is nothing more the press like than bad news? writing a story that you can worry people, use a lot of hype and get the paper sold due to the disaster headline has always been the easy way for the hack to go. Balance in fleet street? unlikely I think.
After pages of this hyped gloom & doom I,m off to the "dress code" thread for a bit of fun.
I agree that bad news sells. However, those that utter the phrase "talking ourselves into recession" or who blame collapsing house price bubbles on "media doom mongering" are merely in denial. Denial is a phase of the process. Fear, Capitulation and finally Despair are the next phases.
You can't deny the M4 or M3 money data, the inflation figures, the rising insolvency, the price to earnings ratios, the credit supply contraction nor can you deny the crash that is happening in similar economies. You can ignore the lessons of economic history but you cannot deny them either.
Every house price bubble since the late 1950's has burst, leading to recession and recessions are murder on airlines who always seems to operate right up to the very edge of the economies capacity. Combine a recession (even a mild one) with an oil price shock (even a mild one) and you have a uniquely horrid situation for airlines.
This is emphatically not the case for airlines in any of the BRIC countries who are going flat out for airline expansion. Ditto the Middle East. All good news for experienced pilots who find themselves on the jobs market unexpectedly - plenty of contracting work out there in the wider world.
For a Wannabe and in particular a UK Wannabe the picture is far more bleak.
Consider a tiny shard of the bigger picture in the form of the CTC cadets. One of the the very largest taker of these cadets from the Wings scheme was easyJet. Who are now overcrewed and looking to reduce pilot numbers. Many other airlines who have taken CTC cadets are in a similar position, Thomas Cook and Thomson spring to mind. The cadets coming out of the system in the coming months are going to need jobs and I can't see there being enough.
These carefully selected, groomed and marketed by CTC Wannabe airline pilots will be in the same pile of CV's that yours will be.
Don't abandon your dreams. But DO protect yourself and your family by avoiding taking on risky debt based on an assumption of getting a job swiftly.
Keep your debt low. Taking this decision informs you of the most appropriate training decisions.
WWW
ps As an aside here are the current debt stats for the UK as of 1st May 2008 courtesy of http://www.creditaction.org.uk Its scary stuff and it CANNOT continue to grow at this rate..
Total UK personal debt at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,430bn. The growth rate increased to 8.7% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £113bn.
Total secured lending on homes at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,200bn. This has increased 9.1% in the last 12 months.
Total consumer credit lending to individuals in March 2008 was £230bn. This has increased 6.7% in the last 12 months.
Total lending in March 2008 grew by £8.2bn. Secured lending grew by £6.9bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by £1.2bn.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £9,216 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £21,433 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £57,420 (including mortgages).
Average owed by every UK adult is ~ £30,120 (including mortgages).
Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages now stands at ~ £101,530.
Two fifths of mortgagors have secured debts of over £90,000, up from one fifth in 2004.
Britain's interest repayments have soared to £93.8bn in the last 12months. The average interest paid by each household on their total debt is approximately £3,765 each year which has increased £340 in the last 12 months.
You can't deny the M4 or M3 money data, the inflation figures, the rising insolvency, the price to earnings ratios, the credit supply contraction nor can you deny the crash that is happening in similar economies. You can ignore the lessons of economic history but you cannot deny them either.
Every house price bubble since the late 1950's has burst, leading to recession and recessions are murder on airlines who always seems to operate right up to the very edge of the economies capacity. Combine a recession (even a mild one) with an oil price shock (even a mild one) and you have a uniquely horrid situation for airlines.
This is emphatically not the case for airlines in any of the BRIC countries who are going flat out for airline expansion. Ditto the Middle East. All good news for experienced pilots who find themselves on the jobs market unexpectedly - plenty of contracting work out there in the wider world.
For a Wannabe and in particular a UK Wannabe the picture is far more bleak.
Consider a tiny shard of the bigger picture in the form of the CTC cadets. One of the the very largest taker of these cadets from the Wings scheme was easyJet. Who are now overcrewed and looking to reduce pilot numbers. Many other airlines who have taken CTC cadets are in a similar position, Thomas Cook and Thomson spring to mind. The cadets coming out of the system in the coming months are going to need jobs and I can't see there being enough.
These carefully selected, groomed and marketed by CTC Wannabe airline pilots will be in the same pile of CV's that yours will be.
Don't abandon your dreams. But DO protect yourself and your family by avoiding taking on risky debt based on an assumption of getting a job swiftly.
Keep your debt low. Taking this decision informs you of the most appropriate training decisions.
WWW
ps As an aside here are the current debt stats for the UK as of 1st May 2008 courtesy of http://www.creditaction.org.uk Its scary stuff and it CANNOT continue to grow at this rate..
Total UK personal debt at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,430bn. The growth rate increased to 8.7% for the previous 12 months which equates to an increase of ~ £113bn.
Total secured lending on homes at the end of March 2008 stood at £1,200bn. This has increased 9.1% in the last 12 months.
Total consumer credit lending to individuals in March 2008 was £230bn. This has increased 6.7% in the last 12 months.
Total lending in March 2008 grew by £8.2bn. Secured lending grew by £6.9bn in the month. Consumer credit lending grew by £1.2bn.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £9,216 (excluding mortgages). This figure increases to £21,433 if the average is based on the number of households who actually have some form of unsecured loan.
Average household debt in the UK is ~ £57,420 (including mortgages).
Average owed by every UK adult is ~ £30,120 (including mortgages).
Average outstanding mortgage for the 11.8m households who currently have mortgages now stands at ~ £101,530.
Two fifths of mortgagors have secured debts of over £90,000, up from one fifth in 2004.
Britain's interest repayments have soared to £93.8bn in the last 12months. The average interest paid by each household on their total debt is approximately £3,765 each year which has increased £340 in the last 12 months.
Thomas Cook are taking a load of ctc cadets this year, along with some alteon cadets. And are, so far, under crewed for 2008. I did not think that Tui ever took CTC cadets.
While I don't think that WWW is right about a recession and his argument has been nauseatingly repetitive for the last eight years!! The best bit he ever typed was contained in that last post. Don't abandon your dreams, but protect yourself by not taking on large amounts of debt you cannot afford.
And that advice is just as relevant when times are good as it is now.
While I don't think that WWW is right about a recession and his argument has been nauseatingly repetitive for the last eight years!! The best bit he ever typed was contained in that last post. Don't abandon your dreams, but protect yourself by not taking on large amounts of debt you cannot afford.
And that advice is just as relevant when times are good as it is now.
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I'm getting upset because certain people in here are so arrogant that they seem to think they are financial experts and they can predict the stock market. If they were that good why didnt they predict the subprime crisis in the first place and become multi-millionaires?
Regardless, Anthony Bolton says in the papers today that share prices have a long way to fall, with recent rises simply being mid-downturn upticks.
The City is shedding 300 jobs per day at the moment, which translates to lower spending on business flights, and personal consumption cut back. Bear in mind that many of those will simply tighten their belts, live on savings, go to Business school, or move abroad for work - they will not show up in unemployment figures very easily, but their effect on the economy will be marked.
Clearly WWW reads his Lex column as well:
Economic data take toll on the pound
By Peter Garnham
Published: May 13 2008 11:14 | Last updated: May 13 2008 21:21
A toxic mix of data showing slowing UK economic activity and rising prices sent the pound downwards towards a three-month low against the dollar on Tuesdayy.
A survey from the British Retail Consortium showed UK sales registered a 1.5 per cent annual decline in April, the first time spending has dropped in two consecutive months since 2005.
The pound staged a brief rally, however, rising to a session high of $1.9594 against the dollar after figures showed UK consumer price inflation rose by far more than expected in April.
The annual rate of UK CPI increased from 2.5 per cent in March to 3 per cent in April, way ahead of the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target and a consensus forecast for a 2.6 per cent rise.
The pound spiked higher as traders reasoned that surging inflation would reduce the likelihood that the Bank of England’s monetary committee would cut rates by a further 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent at its policy meeting next month.
However, the pound’s rally ran out of steam as investors reflected on the increasing evidence that the UK was facing an economic slowdown. “Price action in sterling indicates that the market has placed more emphasis on slowdown in growth versus higher inflation,” said Kamal Sharma, of JPMorgan.
Late in New York, the pound was down 0.6 per cent to $1.9460 against the dollar and had lost 0.2 per cent to £0.7952 against the euro.
Sorry, I meant First Choice and Thomson. I get so confused with all the re-branding and merging.
Jonty - do I really need to trawl through and paste links to all the posts over the last 4 years where I have said that we are in a boom, that there has never been a better time to be a wannabe and that jobs are coming thick and fast?
I was very bearish on Wannabe prospects from Sept12th 2001 for two years and I was right. By 2005 I was very bullish on prospects as airlines were falling over themselves to recruit people and had difficulty keeping hold of cadets in some cases as they were poached by BA within months - I flew with plenty. In 2007 I became bearish on the economy and with it Wannabe prospects. Now in 2008 I am a great big grisly and believe I have the data and the evidence of my own eyes to support that position.
Claiming I've been a monotonous 8 year bear is just false.
WWW
Jonty - do I really need to trawl through and paste links to all the posts over the last 4 years where I have said that we are in a boom, that there has never been a better time to be a wannabe and that jobs are coming thick and fast?
I was very bearish on Wannabe prospects from Sept12th 2001 for two years and I was right. By 2005 I was very bullish on prospects as airlines were falling over themselves to recruit people and had difficulty keeping hold of cadets in some cases as they were poached by BA within months - I flew with plenty. In 2007 I became bearish on the economy and with it Wannabe prospects. Now in 2008 I am a great big grisly and believe I have the data and the evidence of my own eyes to support that position.
Claiming I've been a monotonous 8 year bear is just false.
WWW
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CTC have supplied cadets to Thomas Cook, Thomson Fly, BA, EJ, Jet 2 et al, now they are starting to supply to Ryanair, FlyBe, a Vietnam Operator et al.
WWW is right about the EJ position with CTC at the mo, hence CTC cadets will have to go elsewhere. Or swim in the hold pool for a while before somebody takes them on. Of course not many CTC Cadets want to go to FlyBe as the wages are low in comparison to the dosh they have forked out for the training. Imagine paying back your bond on already relatively low wages, I think it works out more financially viable to be an FI !
The bottom line is that the Integrated studes will still be popping out of the FTO machines and will be competing for jobs against the rest of us. Fortunately most of the 19-23 year old integrated studes I have met are wet saps with zero life experience and no personable qualities, most come across as "drones" who may be up to the job as FO on the FD but wouldn't really add any other value to an airline. Anyway that's just my limited experience and two pence worth.
Keep a plan B and box clever.
MFWF
WWW is right about the EJ position with CTC at the mo, hence CTC cadets will have to go elsewhere. Or swim in the hold pool for a while before somebody takes them on. Of course not many CTC Cadets want to go to FlyBe as the wages are low in comparison to the dosh they have forked out for the training. Imagine paying back your bond on already relatively low wages, I think it works out more financially viable to be an FI !
The bottom line is that the Integrated studes will still be popping out of the FTO machines and will be competing for jobs against the rest of us. Fortunately most of the 19-23 year old integrated studes I have met are wet saps with zero life experience and no personable qualities, most come across as "drones" who may be up to the job as FO on the FD but wouldn't really add any other value to an airline. Anyway that's just my limited experience and two pence worth.
Keep a plan B and box clever.
MFWF
I can see BA taking a few and Flybe. Jonty says TC are undercrewed. Other than that I can't really see any other airlines expanding that would normally take the CTC product. How many are in the pipeline on their way to the pool?
I must say I disagree with your view on CTC cadets. I have spent thousands of hours flying with dozens and dozens of them. Most are very able well rounded young people and many are of a rarely high calibre. There is the odd immature numpty. As a whole I have been mightily impressed by the CTC cadets and I am not alone.
WWW
I must say I disagree with your view on CTC cadets. I have spent thousands of hours flying with dozens and dozens of them. Most are very able well rounded young people and many are of a rarely high calibre. There is the odd immature numpty. As a whole I have been mightily impressed by the CTC cadets and I am not alone.
WWW
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City view:
Deutsche (9th May) - Until airlines take the downturn seriously – by rising prices and cutting costs – the sector is likely to continue to trade well below book value. In our last sector report we outlined why this downturn might hit smaller airlines harder than bigger ones, as in our view it threatens the viability of the smaller players. We still have this view but also are now concerned by a weak response from the larger airlines to this input cost downturn of unquantifiable duration and severity. In particular the LCCs are now destroying value by growing in this environment...In our view only Lufthansa (our top pick) and Iberia are making clear efforts to address cost base and network position. We downgrade easyJet to hold and Ryanair to
sell until both cut back on growth plans. Its capacity growth is limited so we maintain a buy on BA but execution risks on its business repositioning remain high. Key sector risks include: fuel, a material macroeconomic downturn, and the risk of strikes.
Citi (1st May) - Condor / Air Berlin — The market has demonstrated concern over potential solvency issues relating to Air Berlin.
Deutsche (9th May) - Until airlines take the downturn seriously – by rising prices and cutting costs – the sector is likely to continue to trade well below book value. In our last sector report we outlined why this downturn might hit smaller airlines harder than bigger ones, as in our view it threatens the viability of the smaller players. We still have this view but also are now concerned by a weak response from the larger airlines to this input cost downturn of unquantifiable duration and severity. In particular the LCCs are now destroying value by growing in this environment...In our view only Lufthansa (our top pick) and Iberia are making clear efforts to address cost base and network position. We downgrade easyJet to hold and Ryanair to
sell until both cut back on growth plans. Its capacity growth is limited so we maintain a buy on BA but execution risks on its business repositioning remain high. Key sector risks include: fuel, a material macroeconomic downturn, and the risk of strikes.
Citi (1st May) - Condor / Air Berlin — The market has demonstrated concern over potential solvency issues relating to Air Berlin.
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WWW, fair one about CTC cadets most of those that I have met are pretty good, If I'm honest I was having a rant about most of the OAT/OAA/Cabair grads that I have met. Nuff said about all that anyway, I wouldn't wish to have a thread drift regarding the suitability or otherwise of Integrated studes.
Best buddy has just been taken on by BA straight out of CTC but I think he is very much in a minority and I beleive came out top of his course (or so I am led to believe
).
No ideas on numbers but those Airline sponges are deffo drying up and will continue to do so (IMHO). CTC are expanding. All down to supply and demand again. Inevitable that growing numbers will enter the dreaded hold pool.
MFWF
Best buddy has just been taken on by BA straight out of CTC but I think he is very much in a minority and I beleive came out top of his course (or so I am led to believe
).No ideas on numbers but those Airline sponges are deffo drying up and will continue to do so (IMHO). CTC are expanding. All down to supply and demand again. Inevitable that growing numbers will enter the dreaded hold pool.
MFWF
I'd heard that the CTC pool is now 7 months deep but that comes very much from a swimmer rather than a life guard.
Thing is, I think the pipeline is at full pressure and will be emptying into the pool all summer long. If there isn't a normal airline recruitment and training bulge come the Autumn then people are going to start drowning.
WWW
Thing is, I think the pipeline is at full pressure and will be emptying into the pool all summer long. If there isn't a normal airline recruitment and training bulge come the Autumn then people are going to start drowning.
WWW