Qantas is shifting much of their work to Jet *. Qantaslink are parking aeroplanes because of a lack of suitable pilots. Well, a lack of suitable pilots who'll work for the money offered.
The lean airlines will survive but the inflexible, top heavy airlines will probably topple. The niche players may be vulnerable unless they can adapt to the changing market.
Pretty much like students considering flight training. Be flexible, keep an eye on the market both financial and the airline industry. Consider your own case, risks/benefits, your own financial position and make an informed decision about whether modular or integrated is best for you. (read financial papers, they're the ones most likely to tell the truth versus sensationalist tabloids)
My personal opinion is to go modular if you are already gainfully employed. Do your training part time or in blocks while continuing to save money. The people least likely to get a job during a recession/slow down is the low houred pilot. Read Flight International etc and as the financial market shows signs of bottoming, do your IR so it's all nice and fresh for interviews. (Your scan is the first thing to go if you're not using it.. guess what's looked at closely during a sim check.)
If you're lucky enough to get onto a cadet scheme that offers a firm job offer at the end, then consider that. Other wise, I wouldn't be spending a heap of cash on a full time course right now.
NJE are still expanding and growing. Admittedly our growth appears to have slowed to 15% per annum instead of +25%.
Thats the most sensible thing I have read on this thread.
For those that haven't been around as long as myself and a few others WWW has been a profit of doom ever since he started coming to these hallowed forums.
Here is one of his from 2003. Sound familiar? Just at the time when FR and EZY were going nuts with new orders.
I couldn't advise anybody to enter serious training right now.
Do your PPL sure. Maybe start the ATPL exams via distance learning and build some hours. But that would be about it.
Things are already bad. They are going to get worse if Ryanair really do lay off Buzz flightcrew. We are going to war and the economy is very shaky.
There are thousands looking for flying jobs right now and many many of them are highly competent and ideal candidates. To pitch yourself in the pool against them is to be very very optomistic.
Sometimes the conditions are such that no matter how well you do and how good you are you stand no chance of getting a job. Those conditions are now upon us.
There could be a major airline failure in the UK in the next six months. I would not leave a job or commit to expensive time bounded training against that backdrop.
Mores the pity.
WWW
Its interesting if you keep saying the same thing long enough it will eventually happen.
Sorry WWW, but if you don't occasionaly change the record people stop listening.
Last weeks flight had a careers supplement about working in the Middle East, it made very interesting reading. Emirates need 1000 pilots over the next 3 years, Etihad need about 200. These pilots will come from all over the globe, some will come from established airlines here in the UK. TUI-fly, TCX, EZY and FR to name but a few. Which in turn moves the pilot pool along. A quick flick through this weeks Flight shows 12 adverts for pilots, ranging from flight instructors through to BA.
However, while the pilot job market will continue to move here in the UK we do face problems, oil price, Euro exchange rate are two, the Dollar rate has insulated us from the worst of the oil price rises but if this slips substantially then a lot of airlines are in trouble. And if a big one goes bust, all bets are off.
My personal advice is to try to arrange training so your not graduating this year, if that's not possible then have a backup plan to keep yourself current.
While I don't want to get into an argument over the British economy, I think we are in allot better shape, long term, than the headlines would have us believe.