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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 09:06


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11336317)
More on the previous report if the withdrawal of Russian forces from Crimea….


https://censor.net/en/video_news/338...ia_videophotos

Russians massively transfer military equipment from occupied Crimea to mainland - media. VIDEO&PHOTOS

In the occupied Crimea, a lively movement of columns of Russian military equipment was recorded from the occupied Kherson region in the direction of the Kerch bridge….

As the main routes from Crimea to the Donbas are more or less under Ukrainian fire coverage, I wonder if they are going to either ship them through Russia and in via the border, either that or they could be transports that brought in Mobilics and are going for more. Let's hope they are just legging it.

Andrewgr2 24th Nov 2022 10:34


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11336352)
Excellent thread on remaining Russian ASM/SSM/IRBM stocks.



https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...889127936.html

If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

Beamr 24th Nov 2022 11:02


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336452)
If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

the thing is that Russia can't empty their stocks to Ukraine. They really need to have stocks to keep up deterrence and readiness. In essence, they should be decreasing their usage of missiles very sharply very soon.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 11:10

Armenia just stuck the knife into Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) :}


They got their wish


So the fact the CSTO is no more there are unhappy people lol.


More on the reasoning behind it.


https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...1860c667b2d30f


That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...


..

Andrewgr2 24th Nov 2022 12:43


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11336469)
the thing is that Russia can't empty their stocks to Ukraine. They really need to have stocks to keep up deterrence and readiness. In essence, they should be decreasing their usage of missiles very sharply very soon.

Doesn’t that assume some rational logic in their military decision making? Not too much evidence of that in their actions over the last 9 months which seem to have resulted in the destruction of a very high proportion of their military resources.

Sue Vêtements 24th Nov 2022 12:49


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336472)
That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...

...or make up airfix kits of all the tanks, planes, helicopters, ships etc and those 1:72 soldiers in numbers to match what's been lost, shove them all in a box and give that as a present

It would have to be a big box

henra 24th Nov 2022 13:24


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336472)
Armenia just stuck the knife into Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) :}

..

That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That sledge hammer they sent to the EU, they should chop the head off it and send it back...
That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

Beamr 24th Nov 2022 13:38


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336519)
Doesn’t that assume some rational logic in their military decision making? Not too much evidence of that in their actions over the last 9 months which seem to have resulted in the destruction of a very high proportion of their military resources.

Point taken. :E

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 14:04


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11336538)
That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

The other Idea I had was to add a set of crouquet hoops, balls, three extra sledge hammers and a set of instructions to the game, then ship them back.

Or send it to Zelensky and get him and his workforce to use it in publicity photos online using it to repair damaged buildings or even knocking in tent pegs etc, those will soon get back to Russia, showing both EU support by donating it and Ukrainain's using the Russians attempt as showing it's might in a practical everyday lowly use..

..

langleybaston 24th Nov 2022 14:04


Originally Posted by henra (Post 11336538)
That is an interesting (and for Putin most critical one) development. First signs of the end of what was the "Russian Empire". And this after first rumours/signs of Kazakhstan starting to untie the ropes to Russia...


That move by Prigozhin/Russia was so desperate/childish as it would get in the first place. I like the idea, cutting it to slices/chopping it and handing it back, though. You have to talk to children in a way that children do understand....

I have seen nothing of the original disgusting gesture in the media. Have I missed it, or is such crass, offensive and threatening behaviour by Putin now seen as the norm?
Grotesque, the product of a warped, evil failed state.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 14:14


Originally Posted by langleybaston (Post 11336559)
I have seen nothing of the original disgusting gesture in the media. Have I missed it, or is such crass, offensive and threatening behaviour by Putin now seen as the norm?

See

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...eu/ar-AA14vaZp

FUMR 24th Nov 2022 14:59

The best response to Prigozhin would be to send him a child's pacifier!

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 15:18


Originally Posted by Andrewgr2 (Post 11336452)
If the numbers in this thread are reliable it sadly looks like the rain of precision missiles falling on the beleaguered people of Ukraine doesn’t have to stop any day soon even if stocks have been much depleted. Of course it may be that some of the remaining stock has been ‘converted’ into yachts and palaces. We can hope.

Given these are the only weapons Russia is really employing to any effect, I wouldn't be surprised if they directed the majority of the arms industry to contribute to their production. Unfortunately they've found a chink in Ukraine's armour and are exploiting it to the full.

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 15:29


Yevgeny Fedorov, State Duma deputy from the United Russia party, called Armenia an "illegal state".
Seriously, what does expect the Russian state to do about this? Armenia is physically separated from Russia. What are they going to do - ask Georgia or Azerbaijan for permission to cross their territory? An airborne assault is out of the question given their airborne forces were decimated during the first months of the Ukraine invasion.

These people are so detached from reality its laughable.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 15:56


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336607)
Given these are the only weapons Russia is really employing to any effect, I wouldn't be surprised if they directed the majority of the arms industry to contribute to their production. Unfortunately they've found a chink in Ukraine's armour and are exploiting it to the full.

You would think something as simple as a net type curtain slung between some scaffolding towers would protect the substations, the suicide drones are flying from one direction so you can position the screen to cover that direction and the curtain should catch the drone in its dive before it strikes the target. They all seem to rely on basic GPS and they must have a set glidepath to the target, so the angle should be able to be worked out and a screen erected accordingly.

dead_pan 24th Nov 2022 16:18


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11336626)
You would think something as simple as a net type curtain slung between some scaffolding towers would protect the substations, the suicide drones are flying from one direction so you can position the screen to cover that direction and the curtain should catch the drone in its dive before it strikes the target. They all seem to rely on basic GPS and they must have a set glidepath to the target, so the angle should be able to be worked out and a screen erected accordingly.

Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

Old_Slartibartfast 24th Nov 2022 16:46


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.


I'd also wager that there are a lot of threat assessments regarding Russia that have been hastily re-written over the past few months. I've been well out of the loop for twelve years, but the last time I went to a RUSI conference that was discussing the potential threats Russia posed (would have been around 2008 or 2009) the capability of their air force and land forces were definitely considered to be significantly better than has been borne out by the war in Ukraine. Medium range missiles seem to be just about the only threat that might have been assessed reasonably accurately, I think.

The impression I have is that we (as in the West) paid too much heed to weapon and platform technical capability, and far too little heed to Russia's ability to effectively deploy their military capability. Ukraine has undoubtedly performed massively better than most in the West would have expected, but there seems little doubt that this has been aided by the incompetence of even some supposedly highly capable Russian forces (like the air assault force at Hostomel). Clearly, Russian logistic support seems to be poor, bordering on non-existent in some areas, which has aided and abetted Ukrainian forces.

I'd also question the decision made by Russia to initiate this war with a ground forces attack with limited top cover. The tactics seem to have been deeply flawed, and very different to those that I think Western countries might adopt. Before starting the ground forces attack against Iraq, for example, there was the "shock and awe" air and missile attack that both knocked out a fair bit of Iraq's air defences and must have played a significant part in putting the fear of god into their ground forces. We didn't see much of that from Russia at the beginning of this war, yet from what's been happening over the past few weeks it seems clear that Russia had the capability to do that.

I believe that the study of this war is going to be a set piece in military colleges around the world for years to come.

GlobalNav 24th Nov 2022 16:49


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.

The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

Video Mixdown 24th Nov 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by GlobalNav (Post 11336669)
The apparent commitment not to allow attacks on Russian territory should be reassessed. Wouldn’t the Russian power grid be at least as vulnerable?

That wouldn't stop the missiles. Destroying the irreplaceable Tu95/Tu160 fleets would be much more effective.

NutLoose 24th Nov 2022 17:42


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11336648)
Its bizarre because almost every country on Earth would be vulnerable to such attacks. Its like no military planner ever considered that their power grid would be make such an obvious target.

I'd wager this has set in motion lots of 'studies' here in the west.


Already on the way tank wise according to this, though I cannot fathom what the heck the navy have to do with it.. pun intended ;)

https://worldnewsera.com/news/uk/roy...-x-ray-vision/

Another thought re the substations, stack freight containers around them to form a wall.


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