The most important thing is, can we form a conspiracy theory here, and how useful would that be!

Or, we’re all still alive because luckily no one pushed a button or pulled a trigger.

From Belarus? It is in range, that would then open a can of worms as to who you take action against, if it was launched from Belarus by Russians, do you take action against Belarus or Russia?
I cannot understand the reluctance in letting Ukraine see the remains of the missile, that could easily be done in Poland.

Map showing the range, assuming it was the shorter range version and not the longer one.


The question I have and no one appears to have hit on it is...

If it was launched to take down a Russian missile, where is the other missile?

The way to stop it is not to give defensive measures as some will always get through, but to give Ukraine the long range ability to strike the airfields, the bombers and the ships that are launching these missiles both in Crimea and the Black Sea.
Until you do that they will lob them over with impunity, It is rather like the artillery battles, it was only when the west provided the Himars and various accurate artillery was that threat negated, as they were able to take out the supply routes and the weapons themselves.

..

There is much talk from the NATO members that it is time for Russia to end this war and get out, so maybe pitchrollig for pressure on both sides to negotiate some kind of deal. Be that the case, then it would be inconvenient in some eyes to find that Russia lobbed a missile into Poland, even by mistake. Zelensky of course would love NATO to be drawn into the confict but NATO is trying very hard (some say too hard) not to be and this all muddies the waters around the origins of the Poland missile hit.

To me it looks uncomfortably like western powers putting personal priorities ahead of correct action.
We have seen Erdogan twice face down Putin and it was western weakness that let him think he culd stroll into Ukraine in the first place. It is about time for something sterner just so he actually believes that he could make things worse by annoying the NATO alliance.

Last time somebody fiddled with underwater pipelines and cables, somebody's bridge blew up.

Either way Russia is totally responsible for this incident. She is the only one raining missiles onto Ukraine in the first place.

If one gets bashed and dented and flies off at an angle, or if a Ukrainian missile goes astray, it makes little difference to the overall picture.

Red on Red, love it :D Serves them right for trying to destroy those boats.

There's absolutely no reason for Ukrainians to have denied responsibility to Zelenskyy if they were responsible. Poland and NATO should allow Ukraine access to be a part of the investigation. Without total transparency tensions will rise which would play straight into Putin's hands. Keep pushing Zelenskyy and eventually they will listen to you!

Appeal to soldiers of Belarus if they are forced to invade with Russia on how to surrender and the treatment they will receive.

Excellent thread, with an even better informative embedded thread by Galeev.

. Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the notorious Wagner mercenary group, says that he is not currently recruiting anally raped prisoners but wants to create a separate "cock division" to ensure that other convict soldiers do not have to serve with such untouchable outcasts……

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...235807744.html

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...511924232.html

Spectacular footage: Two Russian Kalibr cruise missiles shot down within seconds over Kyiv Oblast on Nov. 15. First is audible explosion and glow on horizon, second a clear view of interception by German Iris-T air defense system.

Snows are arriving in Lyiv

Brilliant ORAC, thanks. We need to give Ukraine more defensive systems.

Ukraine has struck an airfield in Crimea, 150KM from Kherson.

Retired Belarusian Lt Colonel calling on the military to mutiny. it is old published in March, but still, what a man.

Is he still among the living? (I hope so).
The line that really stood out to me was "This is not our war"

It appears so, lives in Poland and is a successful businessman

https://www.txtreport.com/life/2022-...HyFCn0k0c.html

Sniper at work

US allegedly running low on some weapons and ammunition to transfer to Ukraine:
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/11/17/p...ine/index.html

This wouldn’t be the first time this has occurred since February.

Then again, it’s something that’s been well practiced by certain Western powers over the past eighty or so years.

I guess OPSEC is a lost cause, and our dear friends in China are checking off their pre operations check list as they read that article.