1. The refusniks are going to be a future headache, they are essentially security risks in waiting. It will be unacceptable to force them back to what is developing to be an inhumane junta (gold teeth n' all), and they will probably have a crack at political asylum, while still being all too often bad guests, per flags, abuse, harassment of refugees etc. They are a major risk of 5th column, a party trick of NKVD/GRU/KGB/FSB, (take your pick). Going to be an issue, but it will be a case that smart people will need to work out how that doesn't result in the "russian speaker" land grab saga being repeated in the future.

Current advances are amazing, riisk to Ukrainians increases as well with every mile they push forward, and their saving grace is the competency, leadership, logistics, and tactics of the mighty system that Putin put his stamp on as a master strategist. The collapse of support for Putin from China and the lack of material assistance from the land of the mountain hermits, (the guy with the curiously bad hairdresser) adds to the collapse of finance for his war, the public push back to his mobilization, and the expending of his domestic suppressive force to hold the satellite states within his grasp. The unity of the west, and China in concert with India showing discomfort with Putin is stabilizing. Erdogan may yet be the straw that breaks his resolve; Turkey can remove all income that he is getting from exports with a single stroke. Turkey can make the case that one TNW and the Russians will not be allowed any shipping by any nation into or out of the Black Sea, and that kills most income for Russia. That can also be backed up by defensive forces, Turkey has a tiff like that with Churchill back a ways... Didn't end well for our team.

NATO has made the point already as I understand that messing by sabotage of NATO partner country energy would trigger Article 5. Any doubt in that is being removed by Norway looking at putting troops into strategic national assets, They become tripwires. NATO seems to be gaining resolve rather than diminishing, success breeds confidence. Not dull.

Getting B-52's, B-1 and B-2s out of the US will take a lot of Caltex callsigns.... but can be done pretty promptly. Getting a heavy push of F-16, F-15E out will take more tankers.... A-10's.. They should be on their European vacation now... The Navy's posture has been fairly quiet, as it should be but there is going to be a lot of capability within TLAM range... (These ranges are indicative, the airports are not except maybe UKFY

Standing NATO Maritime Group 2, and the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group (CSG) (Ionian sea...)
Go "Pukin' dogs"! “Jolly Rogers”! “Sidewinders”,“Knighthawks”, “Patriots”!

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....553b9597a0.png

"Four Russian fighter jets that violated Polish and Swedish airspace were chased off by European jets."

Twitter

Maybe they were trying to defect :ok:

Maybe indeed: perhaps less chasing and more welcoming in future, and donate the aircraft to Ukr.

Publicise a Welcome Pack. Vodka and a few other necessities of life.

1917 redux….

IT BEGINS: Moscow's TASS news reports that mobilized troops in the Omsk region are electing spokesmen to complain about conditions and lack of pay. These are literally acts of mutiny and insubordination-- and don't bode well for the combat performance Putin’s newest troops.

Footage of Ukrainian troops downing a Russian DJI Mavicpro drone using a EDM4S Anti-Drone gun

A rather neat piece of kit: https://mezha.media/en/2022/06/13/11...-armed-forces/

Video here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

From the Russian perspective (the drone will likely be prgrammed with the "home coordionates" so if it is captured the Ukrainians wil know where it originated from and can target the area with artilery).

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...eb2x&context=3

Maybe offer 1M€ for an airworthy AC?

BREAKING:

🇷🇺 officers have fled the city of Snihurivka.

Lower-ranking 🇷🇺soldiers remain in the city, though they will likely abandon their positions due to lack of leadership and senior-level coordination.

The city is a crucial road and rail hub.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....cc79a82171.png

If so, what are the prospects for Kherson? Reduced to rubble in street fighting? I pray not.

Those buried sea mines were all a ploy to fake a Ukrainian arms dump explosion for the Russian TV

Notice how nearly everyone of them are carrying an RPG or other system as a secondary weapon.

It is not just the conscripts that are problematic. The moral in the professional officer core must be pretty bad as I think they suspect their troops are more likely to shoot them, than the enemy.
The ubiquity of social media is also a nightmare for dictators. Putin's ability to control the narrative is waning and with it his power.

Dangerous times indeed

Who's identified those things as "sea-mines"?
I'm no expert on sea-mines but they're barely big enough to sink a harbour tug - they're not much bigger than footballs!
If they were mnies the the det-cord must be as thick as a man's arm.
I don't believe it.
Far far too much unquestioning reliance given to twatter on this thread imho.

Agreed ... but follow the link and subsequent quote states: "We don't know who is spreading these rumors but to make it clear: The big explosion (30 APR /01 MAY, in Kyselivka, Mykolaiv Oblast) is 250 KM's away from the ditch with 'strange containers' (08 SEP, Kopani, Zaporizhzhia Oblast) It is not the same incident!"

Reportedly a fertilizer factory/storage facility explosion.

Meanwhile:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/poland-i...pons-1.1828211

Twitter

AFAIK, Ford is currently undertaking an "extended training cruise" in the Atlantic. It doesn't sound like it will be participating in combat operations any time soon.

The boys and girls aboard may be getting some on the job training sooner than expected…….

Russian soldiers voluntarily surrendered with their BMP-2 somewhere in Kherson Oblast.

When COVID meets mobilisation:

Newly mobilised Russian soldiers attached to the 2nd Guards Motor Rifle Division have contracted COVID-19 en masse and are now locked in a train for quarantine, without medical care or ventilation.

Translation follows…