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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 19:16

OPEC Cuts oil production…..

The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries has decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices. The move could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers.

OPEC's decision today to cut oil supplies directly and immediately assists Putin's war effort. They were not compelled to do so. They choose to do so. Don't ever forget it.

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 19:19

The Russo-ukrainian War is a railway logistics war, so people need to bookmark this map from @xaliu5👇

The denial of the Snihurivka railway hub to the Russians cuts Kherson city proper from rail logistics through Nova Kokhovka & strands engines & rolling stock between Snihurivka and either Nova Kokhovka or Kherson city proper.

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 20:16

I’ve said previously mobilisation was as much as conscripting all those who might join rebellions on the periphery - perhaps it now far the more important consideration as Ujraine is seen as being lost…

The independent Russian media outlet Verstka ("Layout") reports that the Kremlin has secretly ordered Russian regions to mobilise several times more men than publicly announced. Regions are said to have been categorised according to their "protest potential".

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 21:29

Russian mobiks, location unspecified, recording an address to the public, saying they were abandoned, they are all sick, they were given weapons which are not registered anywhere, they have to buy their food, and there are mentally unstable people among them.

fdr 5th Oct 2022 21:31


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308599)
OPEC Cuts oil production…..



The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries has decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices. The move could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers.



OPEC's decision today to cut oil supplies directly and immediately assists Putin's war effort. They were not compelled to do so. They choose to do so. Don't ever forget it.


OPEC seems to continue the time honored squandering of resources that we have grown to expect. Revenue from finite reserves have made for wonderful palaces, edifices, and lots of decadence in the form of exotic cars, planes, yachts, watches etc, all based on finite resources that are being replaced as technology can provide more sustainable alternatives. Our favorite global leading producers have established economies that rely on ever increasing base pricing to cover the economic needs while production costs quietly increase as reserves reduce. OPEC's former cash cows are needing cash injection to keep their masses kept in the manner they have grown to expect. Some structural adjustments coming along at some point in the future. In lots of areas, those adjustments will have a "fundamental" flavor.

Cutting production continues to favor US and Canadian and other producing countries as they are given opportunities to increase margin and volumes. The elevation of cost softens global activity, which reduces demand in part for discretionary consumption, which doesn't help the short term OPEC revenue status, and promotes alternative supply and substitution.

When OPEC acts, it has a history of zagging when zigging is helpful to their interests.

Use of revenue towards nation building and diversification rather than multi jet shopping trips to Harrods might be a good option. Its a spectrum, some have done better than others, and some have more unemployed population pressure with diminishing future prospects which is a bad mix. Fixable? not without a change of heart of management. :oh:


Wokkafans 5th Oct 2022 21:33


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308638)
Intense footage of Ukrainian troops moving on Humvees under heavy Russian fire somewhere in #Kherson Oblast - and at least one HMMWV can be seen destroyed.


Bumpy ride: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xwihzm/ukrainian_hmmwvs_during_an_assault_reportedly_in/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/xwmt1c/another_video_of_ukrainian_hmmwvs_during_an/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 21:46

First the protests, then the wars….

Something is brewing in Dagestan, Russia.


fdr 5th Oct 2022 22:03


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308666)
Russian mobiks, location unspecified, recording an address to the public, saying they were abandoned, they are all sick, they were given weapons which are not registered anywhere, they have to buy their food, and there are mentally unstable people among them.

1917 Redux

This spoiler is from Revolutionary History Vol 8 No. 2; which while sympathetic to Trotsky and Leninist teachings does tell historical events...
"History might not repeat but it rhymes..."
(beating & abusing your own population works only so long)

Spoiler
 


tdracer 5th Oct 2022 22:14


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308599)
OPEC Cuts oil production…..

The OPEC+ alliance of oil-exporting countries has decided to sharply cut production to support sagging oil prices. The move could deal the struggling global economy another blow and raise politically sensitive pump prices for U.S. drivers.

OPEC's decision today to cut oil supplies directly and immediately assists Putin's war effort. They were not compelled to do so. They choose to do so. Don't ever forget it.

Maybe it was a bad idea for the current POTUS to repeatedly condemn the OPEC governments - call them pariahs - and throw up roadblocks to increasing US oil production.:ugh:

I would have loved have to heard the OPEC leaders behind the scenes reactions to Biden's recent trip to the Middle East to beg them to increase production...

ORAC 5th Oct 2022 22:46

The USA is self-sufficient and unaffected by OPEC price changes. The customers OPEC should fear looking elsewhere is Europe.

tdracer 5th Oct 2022 23:11


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308708)
The USA is self-sufficient and unaffected by OPEC price changes. The customers OPEC should fear looking elsewhere is Europe.

Oil is fungible, it goes to the people willing to pay the most for it. In fact, some oil that Biden released from the Strategic Oil Reserve was shipped out-of-country, allegedly because there is some aspect of the law that requires it be sold to the highest bidder.
So, the US is unlikely to face shortages but we will face price increases.

BTW, USA was self-sufficient when Trump was still POTUS. Biden fixed that - we're about a million barrels a day in the red now days (although most of it doesn't come from OPEC).

Economics101 5th Oct 2022 23:13


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308708)
The USA is self-sufficient and unaffected by OPEC price changes. The customers OPEC should fear looking elsewhere is Europe.

Not quite: if the US is a net exporter of oil and oil products, it will gain from OPEC decisions which increase prices. While this direct effect may be small (US net oil exports are small relative to GDP), there are indirect effects: OPEC decisions may lead to recessions in oil-importing countries, who may be significant buyers of US exports

fdr 5th Oct 2022 23:33


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11308629)
I’ve said previously mobilisation was as much as conscripting all those who might join rebellions on the periphery - perhaps it now far the more important consideration as Ujraine is seen as being lost…



The independent Russian media outlet Verstka ("Layout") reports that the Kremlin has secretly ordered Russian regions to mobilise several times more men than publicly announced. Regions are said to have been categorised according to their "protest potential".


comment on Russian quartermaster status:
  • Recruits: 4 A1 medical, General Purpose, single use,disposable;
  • Uniforms: 2, GP size, warm weather ( it doesnt get cold in Russia...);
  • Boots: 1, pair for the use of, standard size;
  • Hats, Furry: 2; tropical issue
  • Hats, ball cap: 1, ballistic protective, light duty;
  • T-Shirt, striped, Blue/white: 1. blood stains removed;
  • Socks: 3 pair;
  • Sandals: 3 pair, non Govt Supplied Materiel;
  • Cigarettes: 1, communal use;
  • Side arm: 0
  • Squad Weapon: 0
  • AK-12: 0
  • Body armor: 0
  • Ammunition: 0
  • Targets, steel: 1
  • Targets, live, for Ukrainian force practice: 4

"Mav, you have the number of that truck-driving school we saw on TV? Truck Master, I think it is. I might need that".




https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....22793c6f11.jpg

Low average 5th Oct 2022 23:37


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11308692)
Maybe it was a bad idea for the current POTUS to repeatedly condemn the OPEC governments - call them pariahs - and throw up roadblocks to increasing US oil production.:ugh:

I would have loved have to heard the OPEC leaders behind the scenes reactions to Biden's recent trip to the Middle East to beg them to increase production...

The Cartel (also known as OPEC) does include Pariahs, and we deal with them until they eventually turn on us - as proven by Russia.

One day, a list will be made of the Nations who stood silent while Ukranians were being slaughtered on their own soil. I hope that justice finds them eventually.

Winemaker 6th Oct 2022 01:22


Originally Posted by Economics101 (Post 11308725)
Not quite: if the US is a net exporter of oil and oil products, it will gain from OPEC decisions which increase prices. While this direct effect may be small (US net oil exports are small relative to GDP), there are indirect effects: OPEC decisions may lead to recessions in oil-importing countries, who may be significant buyers of US exports

It should be pointed out (and I'll do it) that the production cut was 2%, about 2 million barrels/day. With some OPEC countries not producing to their quotas the actual cut is in the range of 800,000 barrels/day, less than 1%. Having said that, I don't think they should have done it. They certainly look out for themselves....

ORAC 6th Oct 2022 07:40

Note he is saying they, the Chechen military, will take action in other regions and republics within Russia itself….:ooh:

Chechen deputy Adam Deilmkhanov threatens all students of Russian universities with consequences if they stand against the regime. This is quite unheard of given he is Chechen, indicating increasing influence of this party in the country.

ORAC 6th Oct 2022 07:47

Collaborator teacher in temporarily occupied Berdyansk complained that Ukrainian teachers during online classes teach pupils sabotage, inhumane values, and how to "beat the Rusnya [Russians]".

ORAC 6th Oct 2022 08:00

Excellent article, which fits with earlier posts about the reasons for mobilisation and why it is being resisted in regions such as Chechnya.

Back to 1917 Redux and the possibility of civil war….

https://snyder.substack.com/p/how-do...-ukrainian-war

How does the Russo-Ukrainian War end?

ORAC 6th Oct 2022 08:04

And to follow the above….

It definitely seems that there is a power struggle going hot within the Russian govt/elite right now, centered on Sergei Shoigu, the minister of defence, and Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Wagner Group.…

Flyhighfirst 6th Oct 2022 09:08

I really can’t figure the Russians out. They are getting either pushed back or pushed out on multiple fronts, but instead of using what they have left on the enemy troops they have just fired missiles into an apartment building. What makes it even more bizarre is the apartment building was in the city of Zaporizhzhia… the capital of one of the region just annexed! So in their eyes they just targeted their own civilians?


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