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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

unmanned_droid 7th Feb 2022 16:47

There's plenty of things flying around the borders that show on ADS-B, let alone the things that don't show. The media just isn't very good at spotting them.

ORAC 7th Feb 2022 18:57


There's plenty of things flying around the borders that show on ADS-B, let alone the things that don't show. The media just isn't very good at spotting them.

ORAC 7th Feb 2022 18:59


unmanned_droid 7th Feb 2022 20:11


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11181172)

Yes, those are the two most reported assets from what I've seen, but there are others from day to day, around that area and other borders that appear to be keeping an eye on things.

rattman 7th Feb 2022 20:53

Admiral Ustinov will be joing Varyag in the med, cant confirm it myself but other sources are saying that russia has told turkey about movements through the straights the 6 landing ships, 2 frigates and 3 kilo transiting into black sea between 6 and 15th and moskva transiting to med on the 15th

fitliker 7th Feb 2022 23:15

And now for something completely different ;

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kel...es-already-won

Kelly McParland: Why would Putin invade Ukraine when he's already won?

He’s already succeeded in humiliating his Western counterparts and Moscow is once again being taken seriously as a world power.



NutLoose 8th Feb 2022 01:01

Biden says he will shut down the Nord 2 pipeline if Russia invades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60292437

dead_pan 8th Feb 2022 07:30


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11181212)
Admiral Ustinov will be joing Varyag in the med, cant confirm it myself but other sources are saying that russia has told turkey about movements through the straights the 6 landing ships, 2 frigates and 3 kilo transiting into black sea between 6 and 15th and moskva transiting to med on the 15th

That doesn't really amount to much of a landing force. More for show?

PS Ukraine to add anti-ship missiles to its shopping list, just in case...

dead_pan 8th Feb 2022 07:33


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11181254)
And now for something completely different ;

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/kel...es-already-won

Kelly McParland: Why would Putin invade Ukraine when he's already won?

He’s already succeeded in humiliating his Western counterparts and Moscow is once again being taken seriously as a world power.

The BBC's Steve Rosenberg was sort of taking this line yesterday during his report from Moscow. I think the key take aways from this crisis is that NATO has become more unified and likely to spend more bolster its defences, and Europe will look elsewhere for its gas supplies, neither of which are good news for Putin's Russia.

tartare 8th Feb 2022 09:17


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11181266)
Biden says he will shut down the Nord 2 pipeline if Russia invades.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60292437

Yes - I wondered when this was announced whether part of it might suddenly be destroyed or crippled?
Anyone know where the USS Jimmy Carter is at the moment?

Less Hair 8th Feb 2022 09:47

On a positive note this entire situation will reunite NATO and bring back the US to Europe with updated structures and more current concepts. Finally NATO will be better prepared and equipped to interdict future aggression.

Beamr 8th Feb 2022 10:08

Denmark is sharpening it defences,700 soldiers from the Danish combat battalion are now gathered in Slagelse, and the Armed Forces is getting ready to place two F-16 fighters onBornholm .

The government has today decided to sharpen the Armed Forces' preparedness as one reaction to "the unacceptable Russian military pressure on Ukraine".
This is done on the recommendation of the Defense Command, the Ministry of Defense informs in a press release .
This means, among other things, that the preparedness for the Danish combat battalion, which is registered NATO 's preparedness, stays sharpened to 1-5 days.
- The battalion will be assembled in Slagelse, and necessary warehouses will be built up, it is stated.


It is about 700 soldiers who gather in Slagelse, says the newly appointed Minister of Defense, Morten Bødskov (S).
At the same time, the defense is ready to strengthen the national repulsion contingency by placing two F-16 fighter jets on Bornholm , if it is deemed "operationally necessary".

https://www.dr.dk/nyheder/indland/fo...jon-i-slagelse

henra 8th Feb 2022 11:28


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11181339)
I think the key take aways from this crisis is that NATO has become more unified and likely to spend more bolster its defences, and Europe will look elsewhere for its gas supplies, neither of which are good news for Putin's Russia.

Indeed!
I think it feels a bit like Vlad' is nearing the end of his reign. The medium term consequences of this are all rather unfavourable for Russia. So he has a short Term internal PR gain but strategically damages Russia's position. I guess he accepts this because his scuccessor(s) will have to deal with it. For the next 2-3 Years it helps internally to secure his position. To me it seems he doesn't look at a longer horizon than the next 2 -3 Years. For whatever reason. Don't know if his Doctors told him something bad or if he feels that the public opinion in Russia started to tilt against him. No idea, what the actual trigger was.

Less Hair 8th Feb 2022 11:55

Domestic PR will have a problem after hard currency income ends.

NutLoose 8th Feb 2022 12:11

Fascinating insight into Putin

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...b-global-en-GB

RAFEngO74to09 8th Feb 2022 16:40

Rob Lee - I gave his Twitter link above - currently giving his opinion to HCDC:

Parliamentlive.tv - Defence Committee

NutLoose 8th Feb 2022 18:20

Let’s hope we don’t need our modern destroyer fleet, all six are now in harbour with engine problems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r...e-b981191.html

Beamr 8th Feb 2022 18:52


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11181703)
Let’s hope we don’t need our modern destroyer fleet, all six are now in harbour with engine problems.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r...e-b981191.html

meanwhile in Moscow:
The State Duma said that "weak" Great Britain cannot threaten Russia

London's latest statements about a possible build-up of forces in Europe are pure provocation, Aleksey Chepa , First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs , told Gazeta.Ru . So the deputy commented on the words of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson about the UK's readiness to strengthen the NATO battalion in Estonia and plans to send fighters and ships to protect South-Eastern Europe.

“This is pure provocation. The British Armed Forces are weak both in numbers and in the quantitative composition of weapons. Therefore, they cannot exert any significant influence or help - all this is more like a provocation. Talk about sending 100 people somewhere is just part of the information war, which has long been unleashed and has recently acquired some unimaginable character,” Chepa explained.

From the deputy's point of view, if London takes the steps outlined by Johnson, this is unlikely to pose a threat to Russia. According to him, the concern in this case is the sending of troops to Ukraine.

“If troops and some actions are delivered to Ukraine, then this is a serious threat of some kind of unexpected conflict. Sitting on a barrel of powder, playing with matches is very dangerous - anything can happen. Remember how revolutions developed in many countries, including Ukraine. Think about the snipers, about the white powder that (former US Secretary of State Colin) Powell brandished from the podium at the UN Security Council . And what all these events eventually led to," Chepa stressed.

Earlier it was reported that Johnson called the crisis in Ukraine the biggest power build-up in Europe.

https://m.gazeta.ru/politics/news/20...17259109.shtml

Less Hair 8th Feb 2022 18:55

Russian super yacht got rushed out of Hamburg in case of upcoming sanctions.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/v...bite-2jz3nns2b

More info about the vessel:
https://www.superyachtfan.com/yacht/graceful/

ORAC 8th Feb 2022 19:06

Nutloose, don’t believe everything you read in the press….



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