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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 19:05

Girkin claims Russian authorities have ordered Svatove to evacuate within 72h…

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 19:24

Over 4,000 Norwegian Soldiers have reportedly received orders to be deployed to Strategically Important Locations throughout Norway and the North Sea, the Norwegian Government has said this number may increase alongside the Defensive needs of the Country.

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 19:40

This is the first coherent Russian description of AFU's light motorized forces playing Cossack in the Russian rear areas.

Please carefully note these forces are using small UAV's to dominate the Russian rear area battle space.

Wokkafans 3rd Oct 2022 19:57

Russian source on Kherson(Unconfirmed) "Dudchany, Barislavsky district, Kherson region, Ukraine. The Armed Forces of Ukraine occupied the settlement."

One commenter remarks that this would be a gain of 40km in 24 hrs.



ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 20:03

Ctrl-alt-defeat from one of Russia's most gung-ho mercenary channels….

uxb99 3rd Oct 2022 20:31


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11307407)
A Russian attack in Donbas ended in total fiasco. Several MBTs and IFVs were destroyed by Ukrainian ATGM teams. The remnants of the Russian attack forces were fleeing.

Seeing this through the small lens of social media is always going to give a distorted view however these combats seem to show individual, small, isolated units being picked off at will.
It's a s if the Russians have absolutely no idea what they are actually doing? That seems to suggest a total breakdown in command and orders. The Ukrainians appear to be dominating the battlefield and have air superiority, at least with drones.

Wokkafans 3rd Oct 2022 20:37

"Russian channel indicates that Ukraine is employing effective EW in the Kherson region which is causing havoc with their communications. Units are forced to retreat with no support or radio communications. A full retreat to Berislav in the next few days is expected."

"

ORAC 3rd Oct 2022 23:05


Russian channel indicates that Ukraine is employing effective EW in the Kherson region which is causing havoc with their communications.
UKR have the advantage they are using secure, frequency hopping, EW resistant NATO radios whilst most Russian troops, if they have radios, are using cheap Chinese fixed frequency sets.

All the6 need is a few old fashioned sweep or barrage jammers and the Russian troops are back to semaphore or carrier pigeons.

Sue Vêtements 4th Oct 2022 00:22

...they'd probably just eat them

ORAC 4th Oct 2022 05:31

NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily


Spunky Monkey 4th Oct 2022 06:43


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11307611)
NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily

A worrisome report at first, then you read that the train is seen to carry the BPM-97 armoured personnel carriers (APCs). These are also used as boarder guard vehicles.
Potentially being used as a highly mobile counter attack unit to plug the gaps.
The land still under Russian Control is huge, they have the potential to create a defensive line in depth, with a mobile counter attack echelon.
They will still suffer from poor comms and poor control, however going back to basics and waiting for the bad weather is a tactic that can be used to great effect to stifle the Ukrainian moral and start grinding out a resolution.

This is why I feel Ukraine will keep their feet on the Russian collective throat to stop the formation of a defensive line in depth.

GeeRam 4th Oct 2022 07:54


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11306270)
Looks like an overrun into the dunes. Two plumes of smoke back up towards the threshold might be ejections

IG

Seeing reports elsewhere that this was indeed an over run, and was a Mig-31 that crashed on take-off, or aborted a take-off....reports indicating pilot died.

dead_pan 4th Oct 2022 09:48


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11307611)
NATO Joint-Intelligence has reportedly warned Members of the Alliance that they have seen indications that Russia may be preparing to conduct a form of Nuclear Weapons Test in the Black/White Sea or near the Ukrainian Border, and that they must prepare for the possibility.

A military train carrying Equipment from the 12th Chief Directorate; responsible within the Russian Ministry of Defence for their Nuclear Arsenal, has been seen traveling west towards the Ukrainian border.

Russian Nuclear Military Train Is Seen On The Move: Reports | South Asian Daily

Russia doing its best to look like its about to use a nuke, without actually ever using a nuke.

Edited to add: Any test "near the Ukrainian border" would surely have to be in Russia itself (unless Putin could persuade Lukashenko to host it, finally do something useful...)? It really would be peak Russia if they did this i.e. nuke themselves to demonstrate their willingness to use a nuke!

HOVIS 4th Oct 2022 10:30


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11307731)
Russia doing its best to look like its about to use a nuke, without actually ever using a nuke.

Edited to add: Any test "near the Ukrainian border" would surely have to be in Russia itself (unless Putin could persuade Lukashenko to host it, finally do something useful...)? It really would be peak Russia if they did this i.e. nuke themselves to demonstrate their willingness to use a nuke!

Didn't the US test their Nukes in Nevada?

Ninthace 4th Oct 2022 10:39

They could declare an exclusion in the Black Sea and do an air burst as a demonstration of capability and intent, unless there is some other empty space available.

beardy 4th Oct 2022 10:41


Originally Posted by HOVIS (Post 11307748)
Didn't the US test their Nukes in Nevada?

100 atmospheric and 921 underground. There is an interesting museum about it all in Las Vegas run by test site veterans.
However, your point is what? Are you trying to draw a parallel?

dead_pan 4th Oct 2022 10:55


Originally Posted by HOVIS (Post 11307748)
Didn't the US test their Nukes in Nevada?

Except theses were actual weapons tests, not demonstrations of intent for the attention of an adversary they were actively fighting.

Randomly detonating a nuke over some place with no military value just to prove a point makes zero sense, especially if it prompts a NATO intervention and/or the opprobrium of the world at large.

The Helpful Stacker 4th Oct 2022 10:58


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11307753)
They could declare an exclusion in the Black Sea and do an air burst as a demonstration of capability and intent, unless there is some other empty space available.

Not without breaching the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.

Alright, I know Russia probably wouldn't worry about breaching another treaty, but it's all ammunition to eventually use against them.

dead_pan 4th Oct 2022 11:02


Originally Posted by Ninthace (Post 11307753)
They could declare an exclusion in the Black Sea and do an air burst as a demonstration of capability and intent

I'm sure that would go down well with Turkey/Greece/Bulgaria/Romania/Georgia/and probably Iran/Azerbaijan (not to mention those Russians planning a vacation in Sochi).

We know they have the capability, but what would this actually demonstrate, other than they're sh*t scared of actually using one in anger, for fear of the consequences?


unless there is some other empty space available
Hmm, the biggest country on Earth looking for some space for a weapons test...

Less Hair 4th Oct 2022 11:10

Wouldn't Russia seriously upset downwind located China with any nuke use?


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