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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

SRFred 1st Oct 2022 09:42


Originally Posted by Low average (Post 11306055)
The war is going terribly for Russia. I think they should admit the failure of the special military operation. As a form of consolation, their propagandists could use NATOs utter failure in Afghanistan as an example of how even Great Powers are capable of getting it wrong.

Wouldn't that simply remind them that Russia failed there too?

Low average 1st Oct 2022 09:51

Indeed. Failure becomes acceptable. Nobody was found accountable for Afghanistan. However, let's not thread drift...

dead_pan 1st Oct 2022 10:35


Originally Posted by uxb99 (Post 11306053)
Could just be an indication they are running out of aircraft.
Or maybe just sabre rattling for the satellites.

My money's on option 2: "Please take us seriously! We really really mean it!!"

Let's keep on trucking.

dead_pan 1st Oct 2022 10:41


Originally Posted by Low average (Post 11306055)
The war is going terribly for Russia. I think they should admit the failure of the special military operation.

Quite the contrary - I think they should said its been a total success and withdraw, then hold a big victory parade in Red Square. They must have a few T55s still left in storage they could drag across the parade space, and some An2s for the flypast.

Honestly, their population would believe any yarn the regime spins, however fanciful, especially if it meant they could avoid conscription.

WB627 1st Oct 2022 11:04


Originally Posted by rattman (Post 11306007)
Been seeing reports that lyman will be a bloodbath, russians asked for a ceasefire to withdraw. Rejected by UA, they were trying to escape in the drains

Its looking really really bad for russian forces starting to sound like a blood bath for UA forces. Hearing it from different sources this is just one

https://ukrainevolunteer297689472.wo...s-a-slaughter/

Surrender or die is the only option available to Ukraine. They can't just let them go with or without their arms, so that they can regroup, rearm and go back to the fight. Provided of course, Putin does not execute them as an example to the new conscripts.

Some of them will be war criminals and Ukraine would want them brought to justice.



Originally Posted by DaveReidUK (Post 11306031)
By all accounts, when the roles were reversed earlier in the war surrendering Ukrainians were killed anyway.

Perhaps the Russians are now mindful of that and think UKR will do the same, which I trust they won't.

Zelensky has guaranteed their safety if they surrender. As far as I can see, the Ukrainians have pretty much payed it by the Geneva Convention.

They may need help dealing with that many POW's. That could provide a reason for a UN task force to go in and help, or even a NATO country but not under the auspices of NATO.


Low average 1st Oct 2022 11:24

Would be good if a Russian leader (any leader) unilaterally declared the special military operation a failure, instantly sidelining Putin and saving thousands of Russians...

Rockie_Rapier 1st Oct 2022 11:33

From the horses mouth. The text of Putin's speech in full. (in english)

Signing of treaties on accession of Donetsk and Lugansk people's republics and Zaporozhye and Kherson regions to Russia ? President of Russia

This is a particularly choice passage.

Washington demands more and more sanctions against Russia and the majority of European politicians obediently go along with it. They clearly understand that by pressuring the EU to completely give up Russian energy and other resources, the United States is practically pushing Europe toward deindustrialisation in a bid to get its hands on the entire European market. These European elites understand everything – they do, but they prefer to serve the interests of others. This is no longer servility but direct betrayal of their own peoples. God bless, it is up to them.

But the Anglo-Saxons believe sanctions are no longer enough and now they have turned to subversion. It seems incredible but it is a fact – by causing explosions on Nord Stream’s international gas pipelines passing along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, they have actually embarked on the destruction of Europe’s entire energy infrastructure. It is clear to everyone who stands to gain. Those who benefit are responsible, of course.
Sadly there's no opportunity to add comments to the text on the Kremlin's website.

Beamr 1st Oct 2022 12:03

While Lyman has been confirmed surrounded the war moves on. Those who escaped Lyman are now engaged further east.



Wokkafans 1st Oct 2022 15:12

"Local media report that the #Belbek airport in #Sevastopol is on fire."


Wokkafans 1st Oct 2022 15:15


Wokkafans 1st Oct 2022 16:38

Belbek Airport incident looks to be an aeroplane coming off the runway.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Imagegear 1st Oct 2022 16:47


Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11306264)
Belbek Airport incident looks to be an aeroplane coming off the runway.

Looks like an overrun into the dunes. Two plumes of smoke back up towards the threshold might be ejections

IG

MPN11 1st Oct 2022 16:49


Originally Posted by Imagegear (Post 11306270)

Originally Posted by Wokkafans (Post 11306264)
Belbek Airport incident looks to be an aeroplane coming off the runway.

Looks like an overrun into the dunes. Two plumes of smoke back up towards the threshold might be ejections

IG

Or Dangerous Air Cargo? Boom!

Wokkafans 1st Oct 2022 17:10

Ukrainian forces advising Russian stragglers to surrender.


Beamr 1st Oct 2022 18:19

The only allies Putler has left are yelling "nuke 'em!"


Reuters: Chechen leader Kadyrov says Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapon after new defeat in Ukraine

...Kadyrov slammed top commanders for their failings and wrote on Telegram: “In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons”.

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idUSKBN2QW2KQ


NutLoose 1st Oct 2022 19:57

Why that damned bridge needs to go.


NutLoose 1st Oct 2022 20:14

Suspect sea mine booby trap next to track.


fdr 1st Oct 2022 20:53


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306338)

There is no rational reason to not striking the rail bridge. It has gone past its expiry date

fdr 1st Oct 2022 20:54


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11306343)
Suspect sea mine booby trap next to track.



https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status...13632991776768

that's worth a PGM or a drone hand grenade at the very least.

Germaine 1st Oct 2022 21:16


Originally Posted by Beamr (Post 11306315)
The only allies Putler has left are yelling "nuke 'em!"


Reuters: Chechen leader Kadyrov says Russia should use low-yield nuclear weapon after new defeat in Ukraine

...Kadyrov slammed top commanders for their failings and wrote on Telegram: “In my personal opinion, more drastic measures should be taken, right up to the declaration of martial law in the border areas and the use of low-yield nuclear weapons”.


So if Kadyrov is promoting the use of low yield nuclear weapons due to Russia losing ground in conventional warfare, perhaps the west should offer to equip Ukraine forces with a similar low yield capability, only for use after a first strike from Russia and only against true and verified Russian military targets on the Russian side of the border. I agree this would look like nuclear escalation but cluld also me seen as a minor MAD policy.
​​​​
Disclaimer: My opinion is miliarily and politicaly uninformed so feel free to shoot me down.


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