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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

jolihokistix 27th Sep 2022 16:14

MikeSnow above, yes, thank you for reminding me.

I did think at the time that Ukraine had finally decided to justify their attacks because so many people were by then pointing out that Crimea is in fact part of Ukraine anyway.

The point still holds regarding the borders of the proper land of Russia herself, I believe, which no one has attacked or even threatened to attack.

Flyhighfirst 27th Sep 2022 16:25


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11303686)
MikeSnow above, yes, thank you for reminding me.

I did think at the time that Ukraine had finally decided to justify their attacks because so many people were by then pointing out that Crimea is in fact part of Ukraine anyway.

The point still holds regarding the borders of the proper land of Russia herself, I believe, which no one has attacked or even threatened to attack.

Ukraine has lobbed some munitions over the border in Russia proper as well as suspected special forces missions as well.

lightonthewater 27th Sep 2022 16:59

The destruction of the Nordstream pipeline is of course 'deniable' by the Russians, (tho its unlikely to be anyone else) but it sends a signal to NATO and others to remind them that ALL types of undersea links anywhere in the world (undersea cables as well as pipelines ) are vulnerable, and could be cut should the Russians wish to escalate the Ukrainian conflict. No need for a tactical nuclear weapon, (which would cross so many red lines in so many countries) and cutting the telephone cables between Europe and the US would be far more crippling to the world economy, and the Russians could say 'wasn't us, honestly', How then does NATO respond? Troubling times indeed.

Lonewolf_50 27th Sep 2022 17:27

An asymmetrical response isn't uncommon in war.

The drone/antidrone warfare going on in Ukraine for the past half year probably has every military in the world taking a profound interest in what they can learn.

uxb99 27th Sep 2022 17:30


Originally Posted by lightonthewater (Post 11303699)
The destruction of the Nordstream pipeline is of course 'deniable' by the Russians, (tho its unlikely to be anyone else) but it sends a signal to NATO and others to remind them that ALL types of undersea links anywhere in the world (undersea cables as well as pipelines ) are vulnerable, and could be cut should the Russians wish to escalate the Ukrainian conflict. No need for a tactical nuclear weapon, (which would cross so many red lines in so many countries) and cutting the telephone cables between Europe and the US would be far more crippling to the world economy, and the Russians could say 'wasn't us, honestly', How then does NATO respond? Troubling times indeed.

While I agree wasn't the point of the internet that it couldn't be cut?
If you cut the comms link between the UK and USA the comms should re-route via wherever. There's also satellite. In the event of war military comms and commandeering of civvy comms would be undertaken.
Anyone remember the mobile network crashing during the London bombings? It didn't crash emergency mobile comms which have their own dedicated priority.

langleybaston 27th Sep 2022 17:37


Originally Posted by Flyhighfirst (Post 11303689)
Ukraine has lobbed some munitions over the border in Russia proper as well as suspected special forces missions as well.

Very restrained, considering the munitions raining down on innocent civilians since the war began.

jolihokistix 27th Sep 2022 17:50

The point is, for those stating here that Russia has been attacked already, Ukraine has not admitted to any of the odd goings-on there, and would presumably deny any such suggestions. Until then, such claims play wittingly or unwittingly into the Russian narrative.

WB627 27th Sep 2022 18:15


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11303569)
Russian military reaches new level of hilarity as the list of items conscripts must bring themselves is EVERYTHING.

Helmet, bullet proof vest, first aid kit, sleeping bag, boots, knife..on and on..

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....1aec42e73c.jpg


ORAC 27th Sep 2022 18:17

In a post about the most recent Su-34 loss, the Fighter Bomber page said there is a Russian bomber aviation regiment where every fourth crew has been shot down. Most likely, we're talking about the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment, which prewar had 36 Su-34.

Video Mixdown 27th Sep 2022 18:36


Originally Posted by lightonthewater (Post 11303699)
The destruction of the Nordstream pipeline is of course 'deniable' by the Russians, (tho its unlikely to be anyone else) but it sends a signal to NATO and others to remind them that ALL types of undersea links anywhere in the world (undersea cables as well as pipelines ) are vulnerable, and could be cut should the Russians wish to escalate the Ukrainian conflict. No need for a tactical nuclear weapon, (which would cross so many red lines in so many countries) and cutting the telephone cables between Europe and the US would be far more crippling to the world economy, and the Russians could say 'wasn't us, honestly', How then does NATO respond? Troubling times indeed.

NATO could equally say they had no idea why vessels engaged in such activity were never seen again.

ORAC 27th Sep 2022 18:43

The Armed Forces of Ukraine have started to take the first prisoners of war from the mobilized vatniks.

The time from forced conscription to POW status is one week.

Lonewolf_50 27th Sep 2022 19:04

For jolihokistix: part of the information war. (In case any of my old USAF chums are reading: Information warfare isn't just leaflets being dropped on the enemy from aircraft, encouraging them to surrender)

Wokkafans 27th Sep 2022 19:54

One Polish MEP seems happy with what has happened to Nordstream (not sure if serious or sarcastic).








Wokkafans 27th Sep 2022 20:59

Oops "Russian Pantsir-S2 system malfunctions"

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

Big Pistons Forever 27th Sep 2022 21:30


Originally Posted by WB627 (Post 11303740)

Russia is now reduced to the WW2 playbook. Attempting to defeat the technologically superior, militarily competent, but numerically inferior opposing forces with overwhelming waves of cannon fodder. That worked, barely, when Russian soldiers were defending mother Russia. Those soldiers were almost entirely tough farm boys used to hardship and privation and totally insulated from any news.

I don't think this strategy has much of a chance with an "army" of young men, many of whom are social media savvy and used to a comfortable city life, fighting a war they could not care less about. Putin had better be afraid of the mothers of the Russian soldiers returned in body bags after having their life thrown away on his vanity project.

ORAC 27th Sep 2022 21:30

Morale…..



NutLoose 27th Sep 2022 21:34

More mud


NutLoose 28th Sep 2022 00:09


Originally Posted by jolihokistix (Post 11303647)
Neither Crimea nor Russia have been ‘officially’ attacked. We need to be clear on this. Ukraine has been scrupulous in this regard.

The reason for various fires and explosions has been kept deliberately vague, as to whether it was local resistance, infiltration teams, things launched and falling from improvised/improvised Ukrainian weapons systems, or carelessness with vodka, matches and cigaret/cigarette butts. Conditions do apply.

Yes they have, they admitted responsibility for the attacks.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62821044

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukra...crimea-3325272

fdr 28th Sep 2022 01:08


Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever (Post 11303849)
Russia is now reduced to the WW2 playbook. Attempting to defeat the technologically superior, militarily competent, but numerically inferior opposing forces with overwhelming waves of cannon fodder. That worked, barely, when Russian soldiers were defending mother Russia. Those soldiers were almost entirely tough farm boys used to hardship and privation and totally insulated from any news.

I don't think this strategy has much of a chance with an "army" of young men, many of whom are social media savvy and used to a comfortable city life, fighting a war they could not care less about. Putin had better be afraid of the mothers of the Russian soldiers returned in body bags after having their life thrown away on his vanity project.

With Barbarossa, Russia was defensive, and survived long enough to stretch the corporals logistics tail. Thereafter, they built up force capability to allow an effective counter offensive. The supply given to Uncle Joe was quite impressive. Today, Russia is a pariah, when China and North Korea think your plan is a problem, may be a time for a change of management.

Russia's logistics are horrible, and Ukraine has the assistance coming to keep it that way.

Mass waves of conscript POWs seems like an odd plan. But well done, red team.

ORAC 28th Sep 2022 06:13

“Don’t tell me you cant’, I can’t either…I survive on pills and blockers.”

Interesting approach to ‘inspiring’ mobilized troops from a Russian commander. This technique, also known as the ‘we’re all gonna die’ #leadership model, has generally been omitted from western doctrine.


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