Putin remains in power because he has the support of the Russian elites. They are evil but not stupid. If there are real personal consequences to those elites because of real meaningful sanctions the Ukrainian invasion thing will go away.

The challenge is to make Russia believe that the West is not fooling around. That may well mean short term pain for the EU and especially Germany. Failure to show resolve now, however guarantees long term pain for Europe and the US. The only question is do the Western politicians have the stones to call Putins bluff ?

Verbally maybe. Nostalgia. Practically: No way.
He will even not be able to swallow and keep the whole Ukraine permanently. Maybe Donbass/Luhansk. Maybe whole (South-) Eastern Ukraine. Those parts where his supporters are strong/majority. The rest?: Nope.
I'm amazed how everyone out of pure scare inflates Vlad' and his Army so disproportionally. Again: Russian Armed Forces is conventionally about 10-15% of the size of the Warsaw Pac Amred Forces back in the day.
Nuclear is a whole different story. There, Russia and the US are still able to wipe out Mankind. And I'm happy to read that they are seemingly aware of this and seem not to want to pull this joker over Ukraine

Blunt talk….

https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...ead-end-ahead/

Russia talks buy time for Ukraine but stark disagreements signal dead-end ahead

……With all that as cover, Putin has used the threat of invasion to revisit decades-old grievances about NATO’s eastward expansion, as well as to express genuine fury over the situation in Ukraine, which despite the ongoing war in Donbass has continued to make steady progress in is integration with the EU and shows no sign of turning back to Russia.

The raw anger that the Kremlin still feels over NATO’s presence on its borders — Putin insists that the West broke a promise by allowing former Eastern bloc countries like Poland to join the alliance — was evident in Ryabkov’s remarks in Geneva on Monday.

“We underscore that for us, it’s absolutely mandatory to make sure that Ukraine, never, never ever becomes member of NATO,” he said. “So we would favor a formal replacement — eventually at the forthcoming Madrid summit of NATO — of the Bucharest formula of 2008 that says, Ukraine will become member of NATO, with exactly the wording I mentioned now: Ukraine and Georgia will never ever become member of NATO.”

He continued, “We are fed up with loose talk, half promises, misinterpretation of what happened at different forms of negotiations behind closed doors. We do not trust the other side … We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding, guarantees — not assurances, not safeguards — guarantees, with all the words — shall, must — everything that should be put in this …. Never, ever becoming a member of NATO. It’s a matter of Russia’s national security.”

Sherman was just as unequivocal in her rejection of the demand. She said the U.S. was willing to negotiate with Russia on missile deployments and on nuclear arms control, as well as to discuss limiting the scope and scale of military exercises, provided such moves were reciprocal.

But she said: “We were firm, however, in pushing back on security proposals that are simply non-starters for the United States. We will not allow anyone to slam closed NATO’s open-door policy, which has always been central to the NATO alliance. We will not forego bilateral cooperation with sovereign states that wish to work with the United States. And we will not make decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine, about Europe without Europe, about NATO without NATO. As we say to our allies and partners, nothing about you, without you.”

"We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding, guarantees — not assurances, not safeguards — guarantees, with all the words — shall, must — everything that should be put in this …. "

as long as they restore E Ukraine and give the same promises regarding the security of states on their borders.

They gave "guarantees" before and signed treaties. It's not about paper anymore but about containment.

He doesn't think assurances are enough? What sort of state be duplicitous enough to renege on clear assurances? **cough** Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances **cough**

The US could always demand that Putin dismantle the CSTO, and pull troops out of Kazakhstan

Doubt that Russia wants to annex Poland/Baltic republics. Annexation implies you feed them.

They could. And Putin could rightfully tell Biden to shove his demands where the sun don't shine. And remind him that Kazakhstan asked for assistance while the US invaded Libya, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan (fled afterwards) and he would be correct.

When it comes to restoring E Ukraine, the balk is in Ukraine's court. They signed to the Minsk Agreements but haven't implemented them. We can talk when and if they do so.

:confused: Err, yes. That's my point.

I did find this a rather good article about Russia’s invasion options and cost.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-invasion

:hmm: :rolleyes: :ugh:

That would be like saying the mugger asked for assistance from the Mafia to subdue the victim .....

A rather fascinating history of the changing face of Europe.

Terrific video. :ok: The music is a bit "enthusiastic".

Ah yes, just as the Russians invaded Crimea, Afghanistan (fled afterwards), Czechoslovakia, Georgia, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Crimea, Finland, Moldova, Chechnya, Ukraine, Central African Republic, Hungary etc etc.

You missed Germany off that list..... ohhh hang on, we all did. :O

You mean like (Western-) Ukraine asked the US/NATO/Europe for assistance?!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...er-ukraine-end

Nato chief warns of ‘real risk of conflict’ as talks with Russia over Ukraine end

Nato’s secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said there is “a real risk for a new armed conflict in Europe” after talks between alliance members and Russia ended with no signs of progress towards defusing the crisis over Ukraine. ”.

The Russian deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, emerged from the four hours of talks renewing Moscow’s threat that it would take military steps if political measures were not enough to “neutralise the threats” it says it faces. His remarks came only days after his fellow Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, had assured reporters Russia had no intention of invading Ukraine.

Grushko said he had told Nato representatives that “further sliding of the situation could lead to the most unpredictable and most severe consequences for European security”.…

The Nato-Russia Council meeting will be followed on Thursday in Vienna by a third round of talks with Moscow, in the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), currently chaired by Poland.….

In an interview with the Guardian, the former Ukrainian defence minister Andriy Zagorodnyuk said a Russian operation against Ukraine now appeared inevitable, once diplomatic talks with the US, Nato and the OSCE concluded this week.….

Ukrainian government sources suggest Russia is considering a “staged provocation” inside Ukraine that could then be used to justify a bigger attack. This might include a “violent” incident at the Russian embassy or consulate, which Moscow could then blame on far-right Ukrainian extremists.

Meanwhile, Kyiv officials confirmed news reports that the Biden administration quietly authorised an additional $200m (£146m) security assistance to Ukraine in late December. The delivery – first reported by CNN – would include radar systems and marine equipment…..

https://www.theguardian.com/business...gy-agency-boss

Russia is orchestrating Europe’s gas crisis, says energy agency boss

The head of the International Energy Agency has accused Russia of orchestrating Europe’s deepening energy crisis at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions by withholding up to a third of its gas exports.

Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, directly blamed Russia’s behaviour for the record-high energy market prices in Europe this winter that threaten to upend large parts of the European economy and plunge millions into a cost of living crisis.

He said the historic low gas storage levels across Europe were largely due to Russia’s state-owned gas company, Gazprom, which has sent about 25% less gas than usual to Europe over recent months despite a surge in demand after 2020’s economic slump.

“We believe there are strong elements of tightness in the European gas market due to Russia’s behaviour,” Birol said reporters on Wednesday. “I would note that today’s low Russian gas flows to Europe coincide with heightened geopolitical tensions over Ukraine.”……