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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 20th Jan 2022 17:14

Hey up, he’s back :)



https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....73193dbfc7.gif


Now why were those houses destroyed in the peaceful area by supposed Ukrainian artillery… errrr errrrm…..errrr…… oh yes….. now I remember, you invaded the place.

fitliker 20th Jan 2022 17:59

https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/

My apologies , I got the numbers bassakwards. There are only 1.5 million refugees , two million displaced internally , and 3.5 millions requiring humanitarian assistance .

ORAC 20th Jan 2022 18:03

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/20/polit...ine/index.html

US accuses Russia of recruiting officials in attempt to take over Ukrainian government

CNN) The United States accused Russia of recruiting current and former Ukrainian government officials to attempt to take control of Ukraine's government as it unveiled new sanctions on Thursday.

"Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine's critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force," the Treasury Department said in a statement, as it rolled out sanctions against four current and former Ukrainian officials it said were involved in Kremlin-directed influence activities to destabilize Ukraine.

The Treasury said the four individuals -- two of whom are current members of Ukraine's Parliament --- were acting under the direction of a Russian intelligence service sanctioned by the US and played "various roles" in Russia's "global influence campaign to destabilize sovereign countries in support of the Kremlin's political objectives."….

The department said that the action taken Thursday is "separate and distinct" from the "broad range of high impact measures" the US is prepared if Russia invades Ukraine.….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ment-sanctions

…The two MPs the US has placed sanctions on were named as Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, both members of a pro-Russian party led by Victor Medvedchuk, an oligarch who has been under house arrest in Ukraine since last May, accused of treason.

A former Ukrainian official, Volodymyr Oliynyk, now living in Russia, has a sanction against him for working “at the direction of the FSB [Russian intelligence] to gather information about Ukrainian critical infrastructure”.

The fourth man named is Vladimir Sivkovich, a former deputy secretary of the Ukrainian national security and defence council.


“In 2021, Sivkovich worked with a network of Russian intelligence actors to carry out influence operations that attempted to build support for Ukraine to officially cede Crimea to Russia in exchange for a drawdown of Russian-backed forces in the Donbas,” the US Treasury alleged…….

ORAC 20th Jan 2022 18:14

The trigger?

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...mp-2022-01-20/


Ukraine war necessary if Russia recognises breakaway regions - pro-Kremlin MP

MOSCOW, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Russian-backed separatists in east Ukraine would expect Russia's army to fight with them against Ukrainian government forces if Moscow follows through on a parliamentary proposal to recognise their independence, a pro-Kremlin lawmaker said on Thursday.

Alexander Borodai made the comment after 11 lawmakers proposed that parliament ask President Vladimir Putin to recognise the independence of the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

Such a move would mark a major escalation by Russia after weeks of mounting tensions around Ukraine. A Russian military buildup and threatening rhetoric have stoked Western fears of a looming invasion, though Moscow denies any such plan.

Borodai, a former Donetsk political leader who is now a member of the Russian parliament, said the separatists would look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the territory they claim that are now held by Ukrainian forces.

"In the event of (the republics) being recognised, a war will become a direct necessity," Borodai told Reuters.

"Russia would have to take on some security responsibilities" and defend the territories, he said, as it did after recognising the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions after a 2008 war between Russia and Georgia. read more…….

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Thursday responded cautiously to the proposal on recognition, saying he could not comment until parliament had voted on it…..

Orysia Lutsevych, a Ukraine analyst at Chatham House think-tank in London, said recognition could create a legal pretext for a Russian invasion of Donbass to "protect" it from Ukraine.

She said it would be a "clear step of escalation" requiring a Western response in the form of sanctions against Russia or bolstering NATO forces on the alliance's eastern flank.

Beamr 20th Jan 2022 18:23


Originally Posted by fitliker (Post 11172790)
https://www.unrefugees.org/emergencies/ukraine/

My apologies , I got the numbers bassakwards. There are only 1.5 million refugees , two million displaced internally , and 3.5 millions requiring humanitarian assistance .

that is some old info. The news article on that site with those figures dates to Jan 2019. Also, that is no official UN website, the official site has number 734000.

Out Of Trim 20th Jan 2022 21:44


Originally Posted by Doors Off (Post 11172615)
you may, or may not be correct. However, either way, where in the Universe of Reality do we blame Dumdum Biden for this? He isn’t the one amassing forces to invade a country that has not attacked his country! As a socialist (little “s”) can we please acknowledge that Putin and his Cronies are the problem? Not some ole fella who is a couple of sandwiches short of a Picnic. We are living with Hitler MkII (See Seeping) and Stalinskimousalinski (Poo Bin), they are both employing the age old techniques of personality cults, the sooner they and their bent over boys pass on, the better.

Obviously, Mr Biden didn’t help the situation. Saying a minor incursion into Ukraine might be OK, HELLO! Giving the green light to Mr Putin was not alright! It was stupid and unnecessary. My god! Who is advising the US President? 😬👎👀



unmanned_droid 20th Jan 2022 22:54


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11172794)
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/20/polit...ine/index.html

US accuses Russia of recruiting officials in attempt to take over Ukrainian government

CNN) The United States accused Russia of recruiting current and former Ukrainian government officials to attempt to take control of Ukraine's government as it unveiled new sanctions on Thursday.

"Russia has directed its intelligence services to recruit current and former Ukrainian government officials to prepare to take over the government of Ukraine and to control Ukraine's critical infrastructure with an occupying Russian force," the Treasury Department said in a statement, as it rolled out sanctions against four current and former Ukrainian officials it said were involved in Kremlin-directed influence activities to destabilize Ukraine.

The Treasury said the four individuals -- two of whom are current members of Ukraine's Parliament --- were acting under the direction of a Russian intelligence service sanctioned by the US and played "various roles" in Russia's "global influence campaign to destabilize sovereign countries in support of the Kremlin's political objectives."….

The department said that the action taken Thursday is "separate and distinct" from the "broad range of high impact measures" the US is prepared if Russia invades Ukraine.….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ment-sanctions

…The two MPs the US has placed sanctions on were named as Taras Kozak and Oleh Voloshyn, both members of a pro-Russian party led by Victor Medvedchuk, an oligarch who has been under house arrest in Ukraine since last May, accused of treason.

A former Ukrainian official, Volodymyr Oliynyk, now living in Russia, has a sanction against him for working “at the direction of the FSB [Russian intelligence] to gather information about Ukrainian critical infrastructure”.

The fourth man named is Vladimir Sivkovich, a former deputy secretary of the Ukrainian national security and defence council.


“In 2021, Sivkovich worked with a network of Russian intelligence actors to carry out influence operations that attempted to build support for Ukraine to officially cede Crimea to Russia in exchange for a drawdown of Russian-backed forces in the Donbas,” the US Treasury alleged…….

Pretty much Putins only option to at least superficially appear to be legitimate is if the Ukraine Government was to suddenly become pro-Russian and ask Russia to step in and give them a hand controlling their sizeable anti-russian insurrection...

dead_pan 21st Jan 2022 11:12

Lots of people on Flightradar are watching the two trackable NATO recon flights currently over Ukraine. Its becoming a spectator sport.

NutLoose 21st Jan 2022 13:50

https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...n-deal-ukraine


Putin unleashes fury as Germany BANS Russian gas and signs deal with Ukraine instead

VLADIMIR PUTIN has unleashed fury after Germany signed an energy deal with Ukraine and suggested that it will block the Nord Stream 2 pipeline over Russian aggression in the region.



ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 05:28

https://www.thelocal.se/20220115/swe...ssia-tensions/

Sweden rolls out tanks on Baltic island over Russia tensions

In an unusual move, Sweden deployed armoured combat vehicles and armed soldiers to patrol streets on the island of Gotland on Friday in response to increased "Russian activity" in the region, the military said.

Some 10 armoured combat vehicles and dozens of armed personnel could be seen patrolling the small port town of Visby on the strategically-located island.

The move came after three Russian landing ships sailed into the Baltic Sea through the Great Belt Strait in Denmark this week, and amid increased tensions between Russia and NATO.

“The armed forces are taking the necessary measures to safeguard Sweden’s integrity and to demonstrate our ability to protect Sweden and Swedish interests”, Defence Minister Peter Hultqvist told AFP in emailed remarks.

In a statement late Thursday, the military said troops would be deployed “to reinforce operations in multiple locations” due to “increased Russian activity in the Baltic Sea”.

Sweden has flexed its military muscle in the past during exercises, but rarely as a direct response to current events.

Hultqvist also told news agency TT the increased patrols on Gotland showed Sweden was taking the situation seriously and would “not be caught off-guard.”

“We are not unaware of the security risks that exist.”

Swedish Armed Forces chief of operations, Michael Claesson, told AFP the units deployed to Visby were from the garrison already stationed on the island, denying it was a “show a force.”

“This doesn’t have to been seen as particularly dramatic, but this is a natural way of adapting the military presence,” Claesson told AFP……


https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....5ce48ec9d.jpeg

ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 09:08

Oh dear. Comments by Vice Admiral Schonbach, head of the German navy. Badly timed I fear…



https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...e-german-navy/

ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 15:58


chopper2004 22nd Jan 2022 17:50

Russian Naval firing exercises off Cork
 
Coincidence or not but the Russian Navy are planning to hold live fire exercises off the Irish coast in a few weeks

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5...2cbf937d45a96c

The Irish government have been informed with the IAA and Irish Defence Force going to maintain a no fly zone around the area where the Russians will play around.

cheers

k3k3 22nd Jan 2022 18:27


Originally Posted by chopper2004 (Post 11173751)
Coincidence or not but the Russian Navy are planning to old love fire exercises off the Irish coast in a few weeks

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5...2cbf937d45a96c

The Irish government have been informed with the IAA and Irish Defence Force going to maintain a no fly zone around the area where the Russians will play around.

cheers

You might want to check the spelling of Love Fire...
Someone might get the wrong idea.

Less Hair 22nd Jan 2022 19:47

The German navy chief Vice Admiral Schönbach got fired already over his statements.

ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 20:02

Formally resigned rather than fired - and his comments repudiated by the German government.

https://www.dw.com/en/german-navy-ch...mea/a-60525709

Less Hair 22nd Jan 2022 20:05

Sure, he requested to be dismissed.

ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 21:21

I believe it’s the modern equivalent of a pistol and bottle of whiskey being left on your desk…

RAFEngO74to09 22nd Jan 2022 21:23

For anyone who is interested in the Russian buildup, this guy is worth a follow - he certainly knows his Russian military equipment (ex-USMC):

Rob Lee (@RALee85) / Twitter



ORAC 22nd Jan 2022 21:51

https://apple.news/AItn9gZ2pQduH-5ioCgQZAg

The UK Says Russia Is Planning To Overthrow Ukraine’s Government And Install A Pro-Kremlin Leader

BAKHMUT, Ukraine — Russia has drawn up plans to install a pro-Kremlin former member of parliament to lead Ukraine as it considers a new invasion of the country and the overthrow of its central government, according to a British assessment shared with BuzzFeed News.

The assessment, provided by the UK Foreign Office, alleges that Russian intelligence officers currently involved in the planning for an attack on Ukraine are also collaborating with several former Ukrainian officials who fled to Moscow in winter 2014 and are looking to return to positions of power in their homeland.

“The information being released today shines a light on the extent of Russian activity designed to subvert Ukraine, and is an insight into Kremlin thinking,” Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said in a statement.….

The UK Foreign Office said Russian intelligence services currently involved in the planning of a new attack on Ukraine are in close contact with several former Ukrainian officials who served in the Yanukovych government.

They include: Serhiy Arbuzov, former first deputy prime minister and acting prime minister; Andriy Kluyev, former first deputy prime minister and Yanukovich’s chief of staff; Vladimir Sivkovich, former deputy head of the National Security and Defense Council; and Mykola Azarov, former prime minister.

In December, Ukrainian president Zelensky said that Russia was plotting a coup against him. It is unclear whether that alleged plan is connected to the current one the British government says it uncovered.….


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