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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

NutLoose 25th Feb 2022 17:33

I do think Putin might be thinking what sh*tstorm have I unleashed and it’s all coming back at me, protests in Russia and his easy walkover not going to plan with a country that will not forget nor forgive, plus the inevitable fall out with his economy, his population and his cohorts, I do wonder if he might be in line for accidentally falling out of a window.

All of that means he probably has to see it through.

petit plateau 25th Feb 2022 17:43


Originally Posted by tdracer (Post 11190363)
It is strange - intentionally attacking another country's shipping can be considered an act of war. Is Putin taunting the West?

Quite possible that the missile was targetted against the land, but was flying sufficiently low that it simply collided with the ship. That seems to fit the observable evidence (that I have seen, so far) re the hits on the Yasa Jupiter and the Namura Queen.

SWBKCB 25th Feb 2022 17:49


Originally Posted by Davef68 (Post 11190296)
Putin's latest . What's the fear of NATO? Just cold war paranoia?

Somebody posted this article earlier - interesting if long read, giving a Russian pespective


Back in 1990, however, NATO could at least be considered a “defense” organization. The alliance and most of its members have launched a number of aggressive military campaigns since then – against the remnants of Yugoslavia, as well as in Iraq and Libya.

Another frustrating misstep was our involvement in the NATO-Russia Council after the Yugoslavia aggression. The topics discussed at that level desperately lacked substance. They should’ve focused on the truly significant issue – restraining the alliance’s expansion and the buildup of its military infrastructure near the Russian borders. Sadly, this never made it to the agenda. The Council continued to operate even after the majority of NATO members started a war in Iraq and then Libya in 2011.

It is very unfortunate that we never got the nerve to openly say it – NATO had become an aggressor that committed numerous war crimes. This would’ve been a sobering truth for various political circles in Europe, like in Finland and Sweden for example, where some are considering the advantages of joining the organization. And all the others for that matter, with their mantra about NATO being a defense and deterrence alliance that needs to be further consolidated so it can stand against imaginary enemies.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550271-put...oreign-policy/

Beamr 25th Feb 2022 17:51

RT is really not the source one would be looking for in need of objective analysis of anything. It is Kremlins propaganda machine.

goofer3 25th Feb 2022 18:05


Originally Posted by Thrust Augmentation (Post 11190293)
Or possibly reversed back onto the road?

But did they have to go back over the vehicle again?

WB627 25th Feb 2022 18:05


Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj (Post 11190248)
Sorry Pr00ne, but I am very ashamed to say that after the non-action from the West, I disagree with you.

When it comes to sanctions, Western Leaders are not prepared to unleash everything - they are still holding something in reserve'. Biden said he will 'consider sanctioning Putin himself if he escalates further'. My God, what does Putin have to do - invading a sovreign, democratic and peaceful country is not enough? I am truly ashamed to be British.

It is clear that the West are terrified of upsetting Putin and frightened of him. If Putin decides to invade Poland next, and says very clearly that he will use Nukes to annihilate any nation that gets in his way (as he has effectively said, albeit very thinly veiled, over Unkraine), do you honestly believe Article 5 will stand resolute and strong? I do not believe it will. When the UK are faced with the prospect of London, Birmingham, Manchester etc being wiped off the face of the planet, with tens of millions of deaths, as a price for defending a country where probably 99% of Brits have never been and which many could not locate on a map, do you really think Article 5 will hold? These nations are frightened to apply full sanctions and you think they will risk being Nuked to help a distant neighbour?

I admire your faith, but the facts tell me otherwise. Putin now rightly sees the West and weak and cowardly. He can take whatever he wants, whilst holding the world to nuclear ransom, and he knows it. The West will cave in, and Putin will absolutely not stop at Ukraine. He can smell the weakness and fear.

I was going to write what utter boloux, but forum rules, I think, prevent me from being that forthright about the views of another poster, so I will simply say....

You are wrong in the same way we were wrong not to stop hitter before he started WW2 and wrong not to force Stalin back to his pre WW2 borders with the threat of the atom bomb in 1945, when he didn't have one. We left Poland in a worse situation than when Hitler invaded and lets not mention the Polish officers that we repatriated to be imprisoned and murdered by Stalin. THAT made me very ashamed to be British.

The Poles have come to the aid of the Ukrainian's and opened their borders to them. The Poles came to the aid of the UK in WW2 and we betrayed them in 1945 by swapping Hitler for Stalin. I don't think the Ukrainian's will ever betray them and I hope that the UK will not do so again either.

For the record, I have been to Poland.

NutLoose 25th Feb 2022 18:09

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e69134936.jpeg

SLXOwft 25th Feb 2022 18:22

Harder line coming out of the Extraordinary Summit of the NATO Bucharest Nine in Warsaw (with the particpation of U vdL). Need for harder sanctions and supply of arms.
Bulgarian President Rumen Radev (ex-Maj Gen commanding the Bulgarian Airforce) was particularly forthright as were the Baltic states presidents.
Its clear they know they need to stand together, and a not too concealed view that their own peace and security is under attack.
A call from one of the Baltic leaders for rapid EU accession for Ukraine.

I'm not sure the BBC has heard of the Bucharest 9 never mind the summit. However. listening to their World Service early, a Ukranian (possibly a minister) was warning that they may turn off the gas pipelines to 'prevent the danger of explosions'.

China has announced that it is lifting its restrictions on imports of Russian wheat, apparently agreed at the recent Sino-Russian summit.

Interfax-Ukraine is reporting: Authorities call on NATO, USA, Europe to close skies over Ukraine – Ukrainian PM (193525B feb 22)

The authorities are calling on NATO, the United States and Europe to close the skies over Ukraine, impose an embargo on oil products from Russia and disconnect Russia from SWIFT, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has said."I want to appeal to our international partners. For every nation there are defining moments that then become part of the history books, moments when you must decide whether to swallow what the aggressor does or fight back. And now, in fact, it is that moment," Shmyhal said at a briefing on Friday in Kyiv.

The prime minister said that the authorities call on all civilized countries to impose an embargo on oil products from Russia, to ban the entry of Russian citizens into your territory and disconnect the Russian Federation from SWIFT.

In addition, the authorities are calling on NATO, the United States and Europe to close the skies over Ukraine.

"This will not mean your military clash with Russia, it will mean that they stopped the war and descendants will remember you as heroes," Shmyhal said.

Indicative they think the Russians will soon or already have complete control of the air?

TEEEJ 25th Feb 2022 18:51


Originally Posted by Ewan Whosearmy (Post 11190153)
Su-27. But was it Russian or Ukrainian?

Ukrainian.





RAFEngO74to09 25th Feb 2022 18:54

Major NATO demonstration today of continuous CAPs with tanker support of the entire mainland NATO area.

Typhoons from Akrotiri mounting CAPs over Romania - earlier F/A-18s off a CVN in the Med were doing the same.



ORAC 25th Feb 2022 19:00


admikar 25th Feb 2022 19:01


Originally Posted by goofer3 (Post 11190290)
But just to make sure of doing a good job, they reversed back over it again...

There is a bit longer video of that hit. No markings (white Z, triangle, V....whatever). Wonder who IS driving it?

Just a spotter 25th Feb 2022 19:08

From NBC News, 25th Feb 2022


NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Friday that cyberattacks could trigger Article 5 of the organization's charter, the so-called "commitment clause" that considers an attack on any NATO ally an attack on all.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...#liveBlogCards

On a separate note, walked past Leinster House, the seat of the Irish parliament earlier this evening, it's lit up in Blue and Yellow.

JAS

Baldeep Inminj 25th Feb 2022 19:15


Originally Posted by Just a spotter (Post 11190421)
From NBC News, 25th Feb 2022



https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pol...#liveBlogCards

On a separate note, walked past Leinster House, the seat of the Irish parliament earlier this evening, it's lit up in Blue and Yellow.

JAS

Great. Light bulbs.

Vlad must be simply pissing himself with laughter.


ORAC 25th Feb 2022 19:15

When the Taliban think Putin has gone too far….


ORAC 25th Feb 2022 19:17


pr00ne 25th Feb 2022 19:19


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11190237)
For a supposedly smart person, please point out where I said attack? I will give you a hint, read my post, I have copied the part over to make it easy for you.. heck I have even highlighted it.

I find you very hard to believe!

Peacekeepers in the face of a 5 pronged multi thousand troop armoured and airborne assault? The effect would be the same, we would be at war with Russia and that would be catastrophic for humanity.

ORAC 25th Feb 2022 19:21

Looks like BA taken down with a cyber attack, retaliation for ban on Russian airlines in UK airspace?

https://twitter.com/metrouk/status/1497303306175238145?s=21

https://twitter.com/skynewsbreak/status/1497313024360824834?s=21

pr00ne 25th Feb 2022 19:24


Originally Posted by Baldeep Inminj (Post 11190248)
Sorry Pr00ne, but I am very ashamed to say that after the non-action from the West, I disagree with you.

When it comes to sanctions, Western Leaders are not prepared to unleash everything - they are still holding something in reserve'. Biden said he will 'consider sanctioning Putin himself if he escalates further'. My God, what does Putin have to do - invading a sovreign, democratic and peaceful country is not enough? I am truly ashamed to be British.

It is clear that the West are terrified of upsetting Putin and frightened of him. If Putin decides to invade Poland next, and says very clearly that he will use Nukes to annihilate any nation that gets in his way (as he has effectively said, albeit very thinly veiled, over Unkraine), do you honestly believe Article 5 will stand resolute and strong? I do not believe it will. When the UK are faced with the prospect of London, Birmingham, Manchester etc being wiped off the face of the planet, with tens of millions of deaths, as a price for defending a country where probably 99% of Brits have never been and which many could not locate on a map, do you really think Article 5 will hold? These nations are frightened to apply full sanctions and you think they will risk being Nuked to help a distant neighbour?

I admire your faith, but the facts tell me otherwise. Putin now rightly sees the West and weak and cowardly. He can take whatever he wants, whilst holding the world to nuclear ransom, and he knows it. The West will cave in, and Putin will absolutely not stop at Ukraine. He can smell the weakness and fear.


The UK Government HAS sanctioned Putin, and his Foreign Secretary. And yes, I do believe that Article 5 will stand if Putin attacks a NATO nation, and any response will not be nuclear. Your pff hand and dismissive remark about Ukraine reminds me of similar remarks made by British politicians about Czechoslovakia in 1939, they were wrong then, and you are wrong now.

I disagree completely with you as regards the west being terrified of Putin. The 'west', what ever that is, are terrified of a nuclear exchange, and I am thankful that they are.

pr00ne 25th Feb 2022 19:27


Originally Posted by Just This Once... (Post 11190263)
Nothing in the articles prohibit coming to the aid of a non-NATO state. Indeed, nation states have supremacy over their actions, not NATO. Any nation state can chose to help another in such circumstances, even one that is also part of NATO. We, the UK, have conducted numerous operation in recent years outside of the NATO umbrella. Indeed, I can only think of 2 that have ever been under NATO and only 1 under article 5.

The balance is between the dignity and integrity in defending a fellow democracy vs the risk of further escalation. Tricky, for sure.

Yes, but none of them involved Russia, a nuclear armed Russia led by a dictatorial madman like Putin, that makes a massive difference!


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