https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...al-2022-01-12/

U.S. largely settled on Russia sanctions if it invades Ukraine, officials say

Seems rational to me.
Afaik, Europe shifted to a spot pricing system for their gas supply, away from long term contracts.
Gazprom has not received any short term orders during the current price surge, so the pipelines are almost at a standstill. In fact, gas has been flowing from Germany to Poland, reflecting market prices.
There is no benefit to Gazprom to fill its reservoirs in Europe, all that does is keep prices down, to their detriment.

I don't know if it was in this thread or somewhere else, but I seem to remember that Gazprom is actually delivering all contracted gas. They do refuse to deliver additional quantities though.
As much as there are politics involved, the are playing the same game OPEC is playing, limiting supply for extra profit.

"but I seem to remember that Gazprom is actually delivering all contracted gas. They do refuse to deliver additional quantities though."

I believe that is correct - the buyers mis read the market and always thought they could get more more from Russia easily . The Russians are holding supplies to contracted amounts to remind people to open up NS2

Rational behavior, imho.
Building a pipeline is a pretty long term investment, which needs long term contracts to be economically viable.
Not sensible imho for Europe to have tried to chisel a few Euros from the gas cost by switching to short term orders, at the expense of domestic energy security.
Certainly has played directly into Russia's hand, would be astonished if Putin did not take advantage of it.

Once bitten twice shy, Europe will learn from this and seek other sources of energy for the future to the detriment of the Russian economy. I would imagine holding the west to ransom over energy is being looked at very closely and the reliance on Russian gas will be a decreasing demand from now on.

Nukes in Cuba again and another crisis?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ing-a-dead-end

Russia threatens military deployment to Cuba and Venezuela as Ukraine talks falter

Nah. Few years of more expensive fuel and they'll go right back. Buyers want goods as cheap as possible. Result? Manufacture of consumer goods is mostly located in Asia, despite the talks about the need to bring it back for years and years now.
And Russian gas is the cheapest option, or all those pipelines wouldn't be built in the first place.

Other options are coal, a GHG non starter, nuclear, unpopular in Germany, solar, mostly a dud in the European winter, wind, not that reliable, especially during cold spells. Think Russian gas still makes the most sense.
Alternatively, we could have left Qaddafi to run Libya and put in a honking big trans Med pipeline, but no one thought of that at the time....

Maybe. But they will make sure to have other options. Be it by having bigger LNG Port facilities to enable more supply via Shipping. And they will put the supply on a broader basis.
I think this will indeed harm Russian Gas sales on a longer Term. Trust is quickly destroyed and only veeeeery slowly restored. Takes many Years/decades.

I could never figure out the rush to get rid of coal in the UK, South Africa during the sanctions used to convert it into liquid fuels as did Hitler.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_liquefaction

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ns-2022-01-13/

Sweden boosts patrols on Gotland amid Russia tensions

STOCKHOLM, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Sweden's military said on Thursday it was ramping up its visible activities on the Baltic Sea island of Gotland amid increased tensions between NATO and Russia and a recent deployment of Russian landing craft in the Baltic…..

Gotland, Sweden's biggest island, is strategically important and lies around 330 kilometres (205 miles) from Kaliningrad, the headquarters of Russia's Baltic Fleet. In 2019 Sweden deployed an updated ground-to-air missile defence system on the island.

Lieutenant General Michael Claesson, Chief of Joint Operations at the Armed Forces, told Reuters that from Thursday troops were patrolling the harbour and airport of Visby, Gotland's main town.

Sweden is not a NATO member but has close ties to the Atlantic alliance and has been beefing up its armed forces after decades of neglect amid increased anxiety over Russian sabre-rattling in the Baltic Sea region.

Claesson said the Gotland move was triggered by Russian landing ships entering the Baltic Sea this week and followed years of deteriorating security conditions, including in Sweden's immediate geographic vicinity.

"Recent security developments and tensions at security policy level have not changed that picture but rather reinforce it," he said, adding that the armed forces had recently noted an expansion of foreign offensive capability near Sweden.

"... Russian landing ships are an example of such offensive capability," he said. "They have passed through (Denmark's) Great Belt strait and continued into the Baltic Sea."

Claesson said the armed forces were also taking action in other parts of Sweden in response to recent Russian moves but declined further comment.

And the South African plant that still undertakes this conversion is the largest single point source of CO2 in the Southern Hemisphere.

Government Cyber attacks ongoing.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...c93_story.html

Lol, not sure apartheid South Africa and the Third Reich should be our yard sticks.

US Intel
 

First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of Ukraine

Washington (CNN)The US has information that indicates Russia has prepositioned a group of operatives to conduct a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine, a US official told CNN on Friday, in an attempt to create a pretext for an invasion.

The official said the US has evidence that the operatives are trained in urban warfare and in using explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia's own proxy forces.
The allegation echoes a statement released by Ukraine's Ministry of Defense on Friday, which said that Russian special services are preparing provocations against Russian forces in an attempt to frame Ukraine. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan hinted at the intelligence during a briefing with reporters on Thursday."Our intelligence community has developed information, which has now been downgraded, that Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating the pretext for an invasion," Sullivan said on Thursday. "We saw this playbook in 2014. They are preparing this playbook again and we will have, the administration will have, further details on what we see as this potential laying of the pretext to share with the press over the course of the next 24 hours."
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry said in a statement on Friday that "the military units of the aggressor country and its satellites receive orders to prepare for such provocations."The US intelligence finding comes after a week's worth of diplomatic meetings between Russian and Western officials over Russia's amassing of tens of thousands of troops along Ukraine's border. But the talks failed to achieve any breakthroughs, as Russia would not commit to de-escalating and American and NATO officials said Moscow's demands -- including that NATO never admit Ukraine into the alliance -- were non-starters.


The US official said that the Biden administration believes Russia could be preparing for an invasion into Ukraine "that may result in widespread human rights violations and war crimes should diplomacy fail to meet their objectives.""The Russian military plans to begin these activities several weeks before a military invasion, which could begin between mid-January and mid-February," the official said. "We saw this playbook in 2014 with Crimea."
The US has also seen Russian influence actors begin to prime Russian audiences for an intervention, the official said, including by emphasizing narratives about the deterioration of human rights in Ukraine and increased militancy of Ukrainian leaders.

During December, Russian language content on social media covering all three of these narratives increased to an average of nearly 3,500 posts per day, a 200% increase from the daily average in November," the official noted.
The US, NATO and European officials held high-stakes meetings this week with Russian officials. At the end of the three meetings on Thursday, both sides came away with a pessimistic outlook. Russia's deputy foreign minister suggested the talks had reached a "dead-end" and saw no reason to continue them, while a senior US official warned that the "drumbeat of war was sounding loud" following the diplomatic sessions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Friday that Russia believes NATO will increase its activity along its border with Ukraine if Moscow doesn't obey the West's demands."While our proposals are aimed at reducing the military confrontation, de-escalating the overall situation in Europe, exactly the opposite is happening in the West. NATO members are building up their strength and aviation. In the territories that are directly adjacent to Ukraine, on the Black Sea, the scale of exercises has increased many times recently," Lavrov said.
This story is breaking and will be updated.

Pravda says that Russia apparently increasing the troops to 500000
"Russia redeploys military hardware and personnel to western borders
....It appears that Russia is putting its troops on high alert against the background of a very high risk of provocations on the part of NATO.
Given the scale of the transfer of military hardware, it appears that Russia is taking efforts to build up the troops on its western borders to 500,000. Most of the Russian troops will thus be deployed in western regions of the country."
14.01.2022 18:52
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/hotsp...5-russia_army/

Additonally:
Pravda 14.01.2022 19:25
"Russian submarine with 160 nukes on board surfaces off US coast
Russian nuclear submarine of the Borey project, which carries 16 Bulava ballistic missiles on board, unexpectedly appeared off the coast of the United States, having caused serious concerns in Washington."
Читайте больше на https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...ian_submarine/

https://english.pravda.ru/news/world...a_usa_nuclear/

I wonder what he has been sniffing? I doubt many on any side would survive, the blokes a cocking idiot.

Logistics, logistics and logistics……

Forget attacking the tanks - go for the trucks and the fuel bowsers….

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...em-in-ukraine/

The Russian Army Depends On Civilians to Keep It Supplied. This Could Be A Problem In Ukraine.

Very few people know the reason behind why the Submarine needed to surface. They do not give away their location unless under extreme duress.
Something serious happened to cause this action.

IG