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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

Beamr 4th Jan 2022 12:42


Originally Posted by dead_pan (Post 11165006)
I'd reply: "No problemo, we'll just leave all the defensive weaponry in place in these countries then"

or double the defensive stuff... :E

NutLoose 4th Jan 2022 12:46

F15 Strike Eagle renamed F15 Defence Eagle ;)

[email protected] 4th Jan 2022 14:47


Hmm, we may think this but who knows what shenanigans are going on behind the scenes.
Much like the 30s

https://dailyhistory.org/Why_did_the..._Union_in_1933

Frostchamber 4th Jan 2022 15:10

I suspect a lot can be explained by the Russian mindset which is profoundly coloured by its past experiences, not least in WW2 when the Nazis reached the gates of Moscow. I understand those memories run very deep indeed. I'm not an apologist for Vlad but taking time to understand what drives Russian fears would probably pay considerable dividends, as would some sensitivity to the territorial insecurities that are driven by those past experiences. So - would holding back on Ukrainian membership of NATO, for example, be craven appeasement or sensible realpolitik? I suspect a gesture or two tailored to Russia's historic fears (which could still allow for helping Ukraine to beef up defensively) could pay dividends in terms of de-risking things and lowering tensions. If that's what we want.

melmothtw 4th Jan 2022 16:02


I suspect a lot can be explained by the Russian mindset which is profoundly coloured by its past experiences, not least in WW2 when the Nazis reached the gates of Moscow. I understand those memories run very deep indeed. I'm not an apologist for Vlad but taking time to understand what drives Russian fears would probably pay considerable dividends, as would some sensitivity to the territorial insecurities that are driven by those past experiences. So - would holding back on Ukrainian membership of NATO, for example, be craven appeasement or sensible realpolitik? I suspect a gesture or two tailored to Russia's historic fears (which could still allow for helping Ukraine to beef up defensively) could pay dividends in terms of de-risking things and lowering tensions. If that's what we want.
When it comes to Russia's neighbours wanting to join NATO, I suspect a lot can be explained by a mindset which is profoundly coloured by past experiences, not least during the 20th century when the Communists reached and occupied the gates of all of their capital cities.

There, fixed it for you.

Frostchamber 4th Jan 2022 20:50


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11165104)
When it comes to Russia's neighbours wanting to join NATO, I suspect a lot can be explained by a mindset which is profoundly coloured by past experiences, not least during the 20th century when the Communists reached and occupied the gates of all of their capital cities.

There, fixed it for you.

That's a fair point. And maybe the right approach is indeed unblinking robustness, given the risk that Vlad would see anything less as weakness. But even then it's still worth recognising the various factors that drive the other side, especially when the stakes are so high. Whether that understanding means that leaving the door ajar to a degree of messy face-saving compromise could have a part to play here I'm happy to let better qualified people than me decide.

ORAC 4th Jan 2022 20:53

https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...sion-of-europe

The Ukraine crisis will end inevitably in a redivision of Europe

etudiant 4th Jan 2022 21:15


Originally Posted by ORAC (Post 11165239)
https://thehill.com/opinion/internat...sion-of-europe

The Ukraine crisis will end inevitably in a redivision of Europe

Sensible policy would be to keep military alliances at arms length, while integrating the economies as much as possible.
That allows for a much more expansive union while minimizing the political provocation.
Promoting the military component before the economic elements are in place is not wise, one risks being a potential partner who is too costly to admit.

ORAC 5th Jan 2022 07:56

https://www.politico.eu/article/nato...iscuss-russia/

NATO calls extraordinary meeting to discuss Russia

melmothtw 5th Jan 2022 08:21


Originally Posted by etudiant (Post 11165254)
Sensible policy would be to keep military alliances at arms length, while integrating the economies as much as possible.
That allows for a much more expansive union while minimizing the political provocation.
Promoting the military component before the economic elements are in place is not wise, one risks being a potential partner who is too costly to admit.

You forget that it was Ukraine's move towards the European Union that triggered Putin's interventions in the country. It was in response to Putin's actions that membership of NATO was then touted.

sfm818 5th Jan 2022 08:32


Originally Posted by melmothtw (Post 11165407)
...it was Ukraine's move towards the European Union that triggered Putin's interventions in the country...

Correct.

Maidan Square. 2014.

Less Hair 5th Jan 2022 08:36

Ukraine is a free country and can join whatever it wants.

Asturias56 5th Jan 2022 08:51

All countries can do whatever they want - but it's generally wise to consider the effects on other people - especially your neighbours.........

Less Hair 5th Jan 2022 08:54

It might be a good idea for Russia to think about this. They will only make everybody want to join NATO. Finally poor Russia can feel threatened over and over again and claim to need to invade everybody else.

dead_pan 5th Jan 2022 10:51

I wonder if part of Vlad's concern WRT Ukraine is that the country already offers more to its citizens in terms of living standards, work opportunities, freedoms, future prospects etc, than "Greater Russia" will ever do under his leadership? And that after only six short years of going it alone.

dead_pan 5th Jan 2022 15:37

It never rains but it pours...

Russia 'attentively' watching events in Kazakhstan


Lonewolf_50 5th Jan 2022 20:13


Originally Posted by Less Hair (Post 11164050)
I hope the US turn their attention back to Europe now.

Why, is baby sitting still required?

That most stupid "pivot to Asia" declaration massively backfired and invited things nobody wanted.
It was 20 years late.

@melmothw

You forget that it was Ukraine's move towards the European Union that triggered Putin's interventions in the country. It was in response to Putin's actions that membership of NATO was then touted.
beat me to it. :)

ORAC 5th Jan 2022 21:11

Russian press reporting that a “peace keeping” force has been dispatched to Kazakhstan to “stabilise” the situation….

etudiant 5th Jan 2022 21:53


Originally Posted by sfm818 (Post 11165414)
Correct.

Maidan Square. 2014.

Istr that Victoria Nuland, now Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, has a track record in those developments, as discussed here:
https://www.salon.com/2021/01/19/who...n-policy-team/
Her policies seem to me to produce massive strategic losses for very doubtful tactical gains.

Imho, Russia should be inside the Western tent, ***ing out, rather than outside ***ing in.
Detaching the Ukraine from Russia at the price of forcing Russia into China's orbit just seems dumb to me.

NutLoose 6th Jan 2022 11:32

Covert Spetnaz are already operating in Kiev

Covert Russian Spetnaz units 'already in Ukraine right now' warns former US Navy commander (msn.com)


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