Fixed it for you......

UUEE 091230Z 33004G09MPS 240V030 9999 -SHRA BKN020CB 04/02 Q1021 R24L/290051 R24C/290051 TEMPO MANPAD SHLEAD BECMG CAVOK NOSIG

;)

Nutloose,

I appreciate your posts, but THAT has to be the very best of the bunch-thank you!

Let's agree to disagree on that.
Please read again, what I wrote, is a little different from what you have in your mind.

Of course.

Though today's' "big day" with big announcements expected, were somewhat of a disappointment:
- No general mobilization.
- No Nukes thread.
- No new ideas how to solve Russia's Ukraine issue.
- Not even an airshow.
- Limited military hardware and not looking that modern to me.

The only big announcement was, that Russia did expect to be attacked by the NATO and as such invaded Ukraine (No more Nazi's ?). A bit of a strange reasoning, but hey, this is Putin.

At the military level, that presumed NATO invasion was obviously fake news. NATO is not going to attack Russia without being attacked first, let alone, how to keep such plans secret in a Western society with free press and leaks everywhere. Let alone, all the democratic governments with a whole flavor in the political spectrum, expected to approve such invasion plans. Strange, to put it mildly.

However, when diving into this Putin statement, something completely different shows up. And I think, with that, we do have the real reason for the Ukraine invasion.

The NATO/West expands more and more, simply because the former USSR countries politically convert to societies of freedom (just because habitants want that). And with that type of society a political match with existing NATO countries rises, subsequent joinings with NATO will become history, etc.

From the Russia point of view, step by step, all the former USSR countries start to politically reform into something that can be described as a democracy. It is realistic to expect, this will continue until all (or at least west of Russia) the former USSR countries are "converted". And then, the Western side of Russia is "surrounded" by wealthy NATO countries, all closely bordering with Russia. And the freedom and wealth in those converted countries becomes visible to the Russians living near those NATO borders. These Russians simply start to get jealous and want that freedom and wealth too. The connection is easily made that a change of political system created the significant better living conditions for the converted NATO countries.

Which in turn would be a major existential threat to Russia with its current political system, based on suppression and military focus.

So, for Russia, how to break through that chain of events ?

Just invade and take-over the governments of the countries not yet converted. Since recapturing the smaller NATO countries with military force would be dangerous due to the NATO military threat, it would be better to do that capture via the political processes (Hungary, for example).

And, yep, when successfully, Tsar Putin would go into the history books as the rescuer of the USSR inheritance.

If only 1% worked, for sake of argument, that's a pretty big bang.
Doubtful he could "win" with a nuclear exchange, but who could?
It's not a wise move, of course, but it is evil and that fairly well describes the possibility.

If the Russians aren't already "jealous" decades after life under USSR and then its collapse, when will they be? What better examples do they need than Poland, et al.? And, as has been mentioned several times already, if Putin wanted to stop that, the invasion of Ukraine is perhaps the most counterproductive step he could take (though I admit he's good at coming up with them).

The west should be doing it's level best to support the freedom, security and economies of loving former Communist nations. The Russian people need to make up their minds, are such thing worth fighting for?

As Captain Ramius said, "A little revolution now and then is a healthy thing, don't you think?"

Yep, there is the Nuke threat and even with a 1%, etc, it would be disastrous.

However, we do see how well the Russian military stuff is designed and produced. So, when Russia fires a Nuke, it could very well be, it is landing on its own territory. Legit reasons (apart from the virtual threat) to "move" the mobile Nukes close to the Finland border.

Though, the good thing is, with the big speech party, today, there were no announcements for Nukes-firing. Which, in turn, would rule out the usefulness of the Nukes, IE the threat. Use the threat to accomplish what you want, since you won't get anything meaningful (or better, lose all), when you are the first one to use the Nuke. Of course, walk on eggs, though be aware, eggs can be very strong and difficult to squeeze. Don't put the dog in the microwave, and whatever warnings are needed.

Yep, but it would be far more visible without buffer states between NATO states and Russia mainland. Let us not forget, Putin doesn't use Internet .......
These 2 sentences do stretch the Western responsibilities quite a lot. Of course, those countries selecting freedom, etc and having joined the Western party should be supported. Those countries wanting and in the process to join should be helped too. Military attacking Russia to "liberate" the population would be quite a stretch further. The current Western support with fighting in Ukraine is, simply, because the Russian bully is not expected to stop with only Ukraine, trying to reinstate the former USSR. See my earlier post.

These were wise words, not only to put Russia in place, though also for the current US political landscape ......

Actually I would say the usefulness of Nukes and the threat were all too apparent, it was because of the retaliatory threat of a massive counter strike if one was used on Ukraine that deterred those announcements.

New Yorker Article on Bayraktar

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2...ure-of-warfare

Interesting - from todays Pentagon briefing…

For some perspective.

Twitter

That's what I said about two thousand posts ago, that we keep reading Nutty's "scorecard" but it's hard to translate the numbers into actual people and equipment so if someone made models of planes and tanks and lined up plastic soldiers it might give some real world perspective ... like this

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....85adc55d16.png

If Putin and some cronies want to rebuild the Soviet Union.....and we know how the people when exposed to Western style freedom and prosperity react....how does that old hardcore communist core of the Russian Government react?

We saw an example when the Berlin Wall went up and they killed many trying to escape.

What do the Russian People want these days....more empty shelves due to Communist Party failures or Western style lifestyle items and some freedom?

How does Putin handle that now with the complications of a failed War in Ukraine and the resultant Sanctions?

Juggling those two Balls is hard enough but what if there is some real move by the Russian People or his Military and Security Service to challenge his Rule?

What then?

Yep, apparent for those "in the known". However, this once in a year glorious Putin moment is also there to "prepare" (or maybe better "justify towards") the local population a Nuke might be sent off. In the end, it could be, Putin is getting similar presents back.

A massive (NATO ?) counterstrike wasn't something really possible. For that, the resources need to be collected and these weren't there (at that moment, the current situation might be different). Maybe more of a Putin type warning, "don't interfere with our superior actions in Ukraine".

I really think, the Russian Nukes option is already from the table. The $33B Ukraine support option was already known to Putin, when speeching, and in the past, he has mumbled about Nukes for much smaller support options. Let the Polish Migs come, asap. Maybe not via Ramstein, though via London Heathrow or so, clearly visible, etc. This might be the last Bojo action, his last bluff action.

I agree with you, that a transition of Russia to a real democracy will be a very difficult one. As such, my earlier suggestion, the Russian Federation breaks up and later on rejoins according to something like the EU model (with I hope significantly fewer languages). Breaking up of the Federation would imply that a lot of the centralized dye-hard communist structures become redundant and control moves to a more local scale. Implying the propaganda and other controlling institutions also break down.

What the Russian people want: Stability, if needed to be enforced the hard way. Forgetting that "the hard way" becomes more and more brutal, the longer such a scheme runs. Breaking up the Federation would make things a significantly smaller scale and as such better manageable.

For now, Putin rules by propaganda, FSB enforcement, social control, zero press freedom and Stalin practices. Though the longer the Ukraine war takes, the more service men are missing or return home dead, fueling the unrest of the population. Difficult to predict what is going to happen, though Chaos is a certainty. Chaos anyway, when Putin dies, since nearly every major decision is tied to him personally and though there are formal institutions, these aren't recognized to be applicable (see the ignored formal transfer of power to the prime-minister position, when Putin gets his planned cancer operation, the power goes -rumored- to his FSB "friend").

Well, the west has choices to make. If to support (they already are to some degree), how and for what objectives. I don’t think it’s a binary choice, it’s a spectrum. I’m not a fan of “nation-building”, I prefer the people to decide for themselves, but I am a fan of promoting and supporting nations which act responsibly and not contrary to our own national security. I agree with you that our support of Ukraine is not solely for the sake of Ukraine. We may be doing more than new outlets tell us, but I wish we were doing more than it a appears we (USA) are to get Russian forces entirely out of all Ukrainian territory, including regions already stolen from them and to help Ukraine recover from the devastating destruction they have suffered.

I do see benefits to the west in the future, Ukraine will need help to rebuild post war and the likes of John Deere will be replacing stolen farm equipment etc to the benefit of American workers and industry.
Also various countries will be restocking donated weapons for their own military use, such as NLAW, Javelin and Stinger, the success of which shown against the likes of Russias finest will open up the sales worldwide and to the home markets, again generating jobs and revenues for those countries.
I would imagine Turkey has a queue at their door for UAV’s

Reparations will play a huge part in all of this as insurance does not normally cover war, however according to Russia it’s not a war, though I bet the insurance industry will disagree. I would like to see all the frozen Russian assets etc used to pay for it all.


​​​​​​…

Q) Why did Putin ban bagpipes on Victory Day?


A) Because he didn't want the parade being spoiled by drones

You think that’s bad sue, have you seen his propaganda?


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