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-   -   Is Ukraine about to have a war? (https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/639666-ukraine-about-have-war.html)

m0nkfish 13th Mar 2022 14:30


Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50 (Post 11199080)
The only one who wins that scenario is China.

If that ends in a nuclear exchange then nobody wins, not even China. Unless you are referring to an overwhelming conventional response, in which case it would have to be one that doesn't result in things escalating to nuclear conflict.

China has 1.4 billion mouths to feed and the prevailing winds will blow all the fallout from Russia onto the agricultural land in China. The Chinese will always act in their own best interests (as can be said for basically all other countries!). The Chinese are doing their best to stay as neutral as possible because it best serves their interests right now, and the depths of their loyalty to Putin are probably best revealed by the fact they have abstained from several key votes in the UN rather than vote with their ally (a friendship that has no limits apparently....).

I think things will be quite different if nuclear war starts to become inevitable, China will be forced to pick a side and will choose the one that best guarantees the war doesn't go nuclear. So they won't be taking Putin's side. Note that I said Putin and not Russia.....

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 19:18

The Kyiv Independent

@KyivIndependent
·
President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the Ukrainian soldiers wounded in battle as they are getting treatment at the military hospital in Kyiv.

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 19:19

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....09be6821b.jpeg

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 19:20

The losses do not appear to have changed much.

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 20:56

Russia has requested Chinese assistance with military equipment, it shows the amount they must be losing. I would imagine China will not want to get embroiled in all of this.
Bloomberg

RatherBeFlying 13th Mar 2022 21:31


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11199431)

When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.

macmp419 13th Mar 2022 22:00

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....c69459fad.jpeg
This could well turn into a repeat of their Afghanistan adventure.

Wokkafans 13th Mar 2022 22:26

Claimed to be "BATTLE OF KYIV. MOSHCHUN. HOSTOMEL DIRECTION"

Full video here:


"Intense fighting continues in the Gostomel direction of Kyiv. Active hostilities take place here day and night. The shelling of enemy artillery of peaceful infrastructure does not stop for a moment. In the village of Moshchun in the Bucha district of Kyiv region, our defenders are successfully destroying enemy units and have already driven the enemy out of the village."

Тривають інтенсивні бої на гостомельському напрямку Києва. Активні бойові дії тут йдуть вдень і вночі. Обстріли ворожої артилерії мирної інфраструктури не зупиняються ні на хвилину. У селі Мощун у Бучанському районі Київської області наші захисники успішно знищують ворожі підрозділи та вже витіснили противника за межі населеного пункту

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 22:38

Captured Russian supposed Army but his description sounds more like airforce, wearing DPM too.


NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 22:43

Ahh he was, earlier film after he was shot down.


Arrow Intel
@IntelArrow
·
Video of a captured bomber pilot that was shot down in Kharkiv tonight. He is Lt-Col, deputy commander of 47th regiment, made of 24 Su-34s. Now we know why Russian army was so desperate to evacuate him, sending several helicopters at night to the enemy territory.

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 22:46

Well if there was ever a suicide mission this was it.

UKRAINE LIVE
@defensesentinel
·
Russian Airborne VDV units being airdropped by a Russian Helicopter in kharkiv, Reportedly all were killed.

NutLoose 13th Mar 2022 23:12

Not verified, international legion member saying his unit was wiped out in the bombing in Yavoriv

Luka Duvnjak

@Luka_Duvnjak
·
Thiago Rossi, ex Brasilian soldier that was part of #InternationalLegion in #Ukraine, said that most of his Foreign unit was wiped in yesterday's Russian airstrike on their base in #Yavoriv near #Lvov He was saying that while he was fleeing to #Poland in a bus.

SATCOS WHIPPING BOY 13th Mar 2022 23:55


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 11199481)
When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.

Not too difficult to pull together a loose trend.

I just looked at 6 dates I found in Nutlooses posts and popped them into a table. Like you, I didn't have the desire to waste too much effort and did it during ad breaks on TV. Hope this helps.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e1764e6ca0.jpg


MAINJAFAD 14th Mar 2022 00:32


Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying (Post 11199481)
When the first graphic came out some two weeks ago, I commented happily on the "60 fuel tanks" - that number hasn't budged in the last two weeks. I lack the masochism necessary to wade through all pages on this thread to see how the numbers on this graphic have changed or not.

The 60 fuel tanks were on a couple of railway trains taken out by a TB2 strike.

tartare 14th Mar 2022 01:44

BearNet being reported on Twitter as becoming active.
May suggest inbound TU-95s.

NutLoose 14th Mar 2022 01:55

This is VERY concerning.


https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...BeD_normal.jpg
Каменяр
@kameniar_ua
· Mar 12
Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA


etudiant 14th Mar 2022 03:09


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11199557)
This is VERY concerning.


https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...BeD_normal.jpg
Каменяр
@kameniar_ua
· Mar 12
Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA

Agree, it smacks of preparing the public for something in preparation. Very disquieting timing, psy warfare only hopefully.
That said, other than Sweden, these are NATO members, so it would be full scale war, which Russia would be unlikely to win considering the performance to date in Ukraine.
Admittedly, the Russians are doing better in Ukraine recently, at least if the French Defense Ministry maps are to be believed: https://www.defense.gouv.fr/portail/...t-de-situation ,
Of course, one has to wonder how the Ukraine is keeping its forces resupplied, with much of their Army tied down to the Donbas front.

Paul C 14th Mar 2022 06:05


Originally Posted by NutLoose (Post 11199557)
This is VERY concerning.


https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images...BeD_normal.jpg
Каменяр
@kameniar_ua
· Mar 12
Russian state TV channel: experts discuss a plan to occupy Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, parts of Sweden and Poland @carlbildt@JSaryuszWolski@LithuaniaMFA

So they have not been successful in occupying 1 country so want to try it with 5 more? They're off their rocker. And how will they get to Sweden?

Beamr 14th Mar 2022 06:20


Originally Posted by Paul C (Post 11199586)
And how will they get to Sweden?

Since Russias landing crafts are in the Black Sea and Turkey closed Bosphorus, Russias only option for full scale invasion is by land. So take a wild quess...

jolihokistix 14th Mar 2022 06:21

On the map in the link it was some islands off Sweden. (Gotland?)


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....52efdfed6.jpeg


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