Ukraine War Thread Part 2
The recent idea of a de-militarized zone stretching for 100-150 km on either side of the internationally recognized borders of Russia and Ukraine makes sense, although one would not expect either party to abide by it if/whenever a car backfires.
Look at similar borders around the world, which seem to semi-work at keeping mutually antagonistic neighbo(u)rs apart.
The two Koreas.
Turkey in northern Syria.
The Green Line in Cyprus, etc.
Demilitarized zone - Wikipedia
Look at similar borders around the world, which seem to semi-work at keeping mutually antagonistic neighbo(u)rs apart.
The two Koreas.
Turkey in northern Syria.
The Green Line in Cyprus, etc.
Demilitarized zone - Wikipedia
Last edited by jolihokistix; 7th Jun 2023 at 07:01.
Perhaps if the Russians do get kicked out of Ukraine, then there won't be a need for a demilitarised zone in Ukraine, as the Russian Oligarch Government will collapse.
There is the potential for a more sensible government to take over and for bridges to be built.
While I see the need for reparations to be paid, I do not think it would be wise to give the Russians an absolute kicking if there is a new government, as this will bread resentment and could lead to a much more anti-everyone government.
The French did this to the Germans after WW1 and look how that turned out.
The Russians should be relived of their nukes and their seat at the UNSC though.
There is the potential for a more sensible government to take over and for bridges to be built.
While I see the need for reparations to be paid, I do not think it would be wise to give the Russians an absolute kicking if there is a new government, as this will bread resentment and could lead to a much more anti-everyone government.
The French did this to the Germans after WW1 and look how that turned out.
The Russians should be relived of their nukes and their seat at the UNSC though.
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Russians relieved of nukes - easily said, but how exactly would anyone go about that? I wouldn't blame the Russians in that either, as they themselves have shown what happens when another country is relieved of nukes (Ukraine). There are plenty of other examples of countries without nukes (Iraq, Libya, etc.) which have inspired all and sundry (e.g. Iran) to try their best to nuke up. NATO countries don't need nukes, so long as other NATO countries do have them. Here in Oz we don't have nukes, but we have a shiny new submarine pact with countries that have nuclear armed submarines, so don't go nuking us.
If Russia collapses, those nukes may well find themselves being brandished around wildly - or perhaps more likely, knowing them, shopped around to the highest bidder. Not good either way.
So I agree it would be better for Russia to transition to a new government which can promise its own people - many of whom are not as stupid as they look, from the Oligarchs to the youth of St Petersburg and Moscow, just cowed into pathetic submissiveness - to mend relations with the free world and introduce some measure of liberal reform. DMZ, some measure of reparations (could be mainly for show, international finance is so porous anyway it could come from thin air), war crimes tribunals that identify and punish individuals rather than the whole country, and a pathway to a new status for Crimea (not Russian, but maybe autonomous). Russia gets to do a Germany and recover from its nightmare, and with a new government that plays by the rules of protecting sovereign territory, even gets the free world vaguely on its side (at least as far as hand-waving, finger-wagging and tut-tutting goes) in any territorial dispute over Outer Manchuria.
Ukraine would come out of it devastated, but with admiration, gratitude and investment from all over the world, possibly the strongest military in Europe, an airforce bristling with western fighters (including Ozzie hornets 🤞
, NATO membership (and EU too if that's what floats their boat, just steer clear of the Euro dollar Mr Z). Possibly some international peacekeepers in the DMZ border. They would be an impregnable fortress. Compared to "gone in 3 days" that might be a result worth having fought for.
Putin should hang, but pretty sure the ICC doesn't do that any more.
If Russia collapses, those nukes may well find themselves being brandished around wildly - or perhaps more likely, knowing them, shopped around to the highest bidder. Not good either way.
So I agree it would be better for Russia to transition to a new government which can promise its own people - many of whom are not as stupid as they look, from the Oligarchs to the youth of St Petersburg and Moscow, just cowed into pathetic submissiveness - to mend relations with the free world and introduce some measure of liberal reform. DMZ, some measure of reparations (could be mainly for show, international finance is so porous anyway it could come from thin air), war crimes tribunals that identify and punish individuals rather than the whole country, and a pathway to a new status for Crimea (not Russian, but maybe autonomous). Russia gets to do a Germany and recover from its nightmare, and with a new government that plays by the rules of protecting sovereign territory, even gets the free world vaguely on its side (at least as far as hand-waving, finger-wagging and tut-tutting goes) in any territorial dispute over Outer Manchuria.
Ukraine would come out of it devastated, but with admiration, gratitude and investment from all over the world, possibly the strongest military in Europe, an airforce bristling with western fighters (including Ozzie hornets 🤞
, NATO membership (and EU too if that's what floats their boat, just steer clear of the Euro dollar Mr Z). Possibly some international peacekeepers in the DMZ border. They would be an impregnable fortress. Compared to "gone in 3 days" that might be a result worth having fought for.Putin should hang, but pretty sure the ICC doesn't do that any more.
well then, hydraulic structure, check. When comes the hazardous production facility? All eyes on NPP's?
well then, hydraulic structure, check. When comes the hazardous production facility? All eyes on NPP's?
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/...90040160825345
https://twitter.com/NikaMelkozerova/...90040160825345
the criminal mind at work. Shoigu looks more foolish every hour he espouses alternative theory for the crimes of Russia. The wreckage, water level record and the legislation shows criminal intent.
Russia has no place having interaction with a civilised world, they can go back to their bog.
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That is a possibility, but I think that world-wide, the belief in the efficacy - and even ability to function at all - of Russian weapons has taken a major hit. If you bought a few missiles you would possibly make yourself a target without the certainty that your ( 20-year-old ? ) missiles would launch.
From the lack of turbulence in the wide gap it looks like they blew it up from the very bottom of the dam. The water level at the ex-powerhouse is almost to the blasted remains. Looks like the reservoir water level will drop a considerable distance. Obviously an inside job.
On another topic, Nutty has been doing yeoman service sifting through stuff. He gets it wrong occasionally, as I've pointed out a few times, but does go back, checks, and alters as necessary. Keep it up sir!
On another topic, Nutty has been doing yeoman service sifting through stuff. He gets it wrong occasionally, as I've pointed out a few times, but does go back, checks, and alters as necessary. Keep it up sir!
Having nothing better to do (still fairly immobile) I sifted through as much info as I could find. The dam started to fail after an event between 1st June and 2nd June. Satellite images show the initial damage on 2nd June. Looks like something blew away a section where the road and railway running over the dam split. Big section of road missing there on 2nd June that was there on 1st June.
We're missing satellite images from 3rd, 4th, 5th June. Not sure why. Next images we have are from 6th June and by then the damage has spread right across the centre of the dam.
Been chatting on the phone to a former RE mate. His view is that blowing up earth dams is bloody difficult. He thinks they blew part of the spillway under the road on 1st/2nd June and let the flowing water destroy the dam. Similar to what happened at the Whaley Bridge earth dam a few years ago. That was a spillway failure leading to rapid earth erosion.
Makes sense to me. The Russians could have easily placed demolition charges under the suspended road. Gives them plausible deniability. They let the water level get very high. Then blew a hole so the high water could wash out the dam. The failure took 4 days to become catastrophic.
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Though I detest this guy for who he is it seems he is the only Russian high ranking person who speaks openly about situation as it is. Worth to listen. Prigozhin is very bold in criticising Russian MoD leadership and expecting collapse.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
China crossing a threshold?
The first Chinese military vehicle in Russian service: Ramzan Kadyrov showed footage of "new vehicles purchased for Chechen units participating in the SMO" at his palace - featuring 8+ brand new Shaanxi Baoji Special Vehicles Manufacturing Co. "Tiger" armored personnel carriers.
The first Chinese military vehicle in Russian service: Ramzan Kadyrov showed footage of "new vehicles purchased for Chechen units participating in the SMO" at his palace - featuring 8+ brand new Shaanxi Baoji Special Vehicles Manufacturing Co. "Tiger" armored personnel carriers.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ected-u-s-says
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
There are indications from the Biden administration that Ukraine is making progress already during its counteroffensive.
Administration officials “were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front,” Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Tuesday.
“That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast.”
Biden administration officials say the offensive began on Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes, Ignatius reported, echoing what we reported Monday.
The White House, however, said it is too early to tell how the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam across the Dnipro River will affect the counteroffensive.
“I won't speak to Ukrainian military operations in any way whatsoever,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday afternoon. “But right now- too soon to assess what kind of impact [the dam destruction] is going to have on the battlefield."…..
Ukraine Situation Report: Offensive Going Better Than Expected, U.S. Says
There are indications from the Biden administration that Ukraine is making progress already during its counteroffensive.
Administration officials “were encouraged by better-than-expected progress Monday, as Ukrainian units pushed through heavily mined areas to advance between five and 10 kilometers in some areas of the long front,” Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported Tuesday.
“That raised hopes that Ukrainian forces can keep thrusting toward Mariupol, Melitopol and other Russian-held places along the coast.”
Biden administration officials say the offensive began on Monday with a Ukrainian thrust south along multiple axes, Ignatius reported, echoing what we reported Monday.
The White House, however, said it is too early to tell how the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam across the Dnipro River will affect the counteroffensive.
“I won't speak to Ukrainian military operations in any way whatsoever,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday afternoon. “But right now- too soon to assess what kind of impact [the dam destruction] is going to have on the battlefield."…..
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
This very good thread from @TomGiuretis highlights the vital role that the canals fed from the Dnipro play in the agriculture of southern Ukraine and Crimea. But I thought I'd add a historical perspective to how the canals changed life there.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...967690240.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...132995584.html
This is a really good analogy for American readers, and one I wish I'd thought of. Imagine if California's Central Valley lost its entire water supply overnight? That's what's just happened to southern Ukraine and Crimea.…
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...967690240.html
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...132995584.html
This is a really good analogy for American readers, and one I wish I'd thought of. Imagine if California's Central Valley lost its entire water supply overnight? That's what's just happened to southern Ukraine and Crimea.…
Last edited by ORAC; 7th Jun 2023 at 16:19.
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If these chinese armored cars end up in the battle field it will be very interesting to see how they perform. It will be eyeballed by western military intelligence undoubtedly as well.
A rather interesting (non governmental) russian voice on what happened to the Kakhovka dam since Nov 2022 (linked and recommended by Ukrainian Ian Matveev) and what may have happened during the night of June 5/6:
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
S
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
S
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How awesome is this, Ukrainian troops delivering water to a woman and children trapped in their attic in the temporarily occupied zone by drone.
pleading for help.
pleading for help.
Last edited by NutLoose; 7th Jun 2023 at 17:20.
I find it amazing that despite all the fancy technology in place on both sides it seems that at the strategic and operational level we are basically seeing WW2 over again. Even more striking to me is that it appears the Bachmut campaign seems to have a lot more resemblance to the battles for Ypres in WW1 than any of the much vaunted "Revolutions in Military Affairs" that the various think tanks are pushing.
China crossing a threshold?
The first Chinese military vehicle in Russian service: Ramzan Kadyrov showed footage of "new vehicles purchased for Chechen units participating in the SMO" at his palace - featuring 8+ brand new Shaanxi Baoji Special Vehicles Manufacturing Co. "Tiger" armored personnel carriers.
V
The first Chinese military vehicle in Russian service: Ramzan Kadyrov showed footage of "new vehicles purchased for Chechen units participating in the SMO" at his palace - featuring 8+ brand new Shaanxi Baoji Special Vehicles Manufacturing Co. "Tiger" armored personnel carriers.
V
A rather interesting (non governmental) russian voice on what happened to the Kakhovka dam since Nov 2022 (linked and recommended by Ukrainian Ian Matveev) and what may have happened during the night of June 5/6:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ5LBb-H2lk
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
S
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ5LBb-H2lk
Basically it says ...
1) There's proof (satellite images) that the outflow of the dam was not regulated by the Russians since mid-Nov 2022 (when they damaged the dam by a huge explosion)
2) The dam started to disintegrate on June 2 (probably as a result of record high water levels combined with criminal negligence by the Russians), with damage increasing on June 5
In addidtion, it's
3) showing night-time IR footage (night june 5/6, 02:46 AM) which indicates a large failure of the dam, but turbine building still intact (see 13:10 in the video linked before)
4) and the hypothesis that detonations heard actually were mines laid previously and detonating now as a result of being swept away and colliding with the collapsing dam
Hopefully everyone here now is aware that the nighttime explosion videos linked everywhere are not from June 5/6 2023, but from Nov 2022 (when Russian retreated from the right bank and blew up the road above the dam).
S
Fits well with the amateur look at stuff I did earlier today. No doubt at all that the dam started to fail between 1st/2nd June. Cause unknown. Doesn't matter a FF if it was Russian demolition charges or them deliberately letting the water level get too high. Either way it was a deliberate/negligent act that contravenes the rules of war.
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