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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Ukraine War Thread Part 2

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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 18:43
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
Another fire in Moscow, this time a battery plant, I take it the smoke is sulphur?
On what grounds do you "take it" to be sulphur? Sulphur is a yellow coloured non-metallic solid, not white smoke, and not something usually associated with batteries either afaik.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 19:37
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
On what grounds do you "take it" to be sulphur? Sulphur is a yellow coloured non-metallic solid, not white smoke, and not something usually associated with batteries either afaik.
H2SO4 electrolyte filling, so the fumes could be SO3
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 22:00
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BREAKING:

Poland announces it has signed a contract to buy hundreds of new Spike anti-tank missiles.

The deal is worth USD 100 mln.

Production will be done in Poland by @PGZ_MESKO_SA under the license by the Israeli Rafael company.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 22:06
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Reference battery fire - warehouse of a company producing oxygen batteries for drones.

https://www.newsweek.com/moscow-chem...ations-1817297
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 22:31
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​​​​​​​During the last attack of the Russian Federation on the port of Izmail, one of the drones fell on the territory of Romania, - Romanian media.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 22:36
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Russia:

​​​​​​​Natural gas power plant exploded in the Voskresensky district of the Moscow region.
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Old 3rd Aug 2023, 23:47
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Originally Posted by ORAC
During the last attack of the Russian Federation on the port of Izmail, one of the drones fell on the territory of Romania, - Romanian media.
so without going to article 5 does this not give Romania with Ukraines permission the right to join in the air defence and take down drones / missiles that may or may not be threatening Romanian territory?
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 00:15
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How the offensive is going

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Old 4th Aug 2023, 01:01
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo
On what grounds do you "take it" to be sulphur? Sulphur is a yellow coloured non-metallic solid, not white smoke, and not something usually associated with batteries either afaik.
Perhaps a new patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church has been chosen?
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 06:22
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Rapid development of new generations of drones isn’t just being limited to the air…

REMOTE CONTROL SEA POWER: Ukraine’s rapidly evolving naval drones threaten Russian warships in the Black Sea. Each iteration is increasingly stealthy, has greater range, and packs more destructive warheads. Their development can be seen below.
Not a bad result for a country which de facto doesn't have a navy...

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Old 4th Aug 2023, 06:51
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​​​​​​​Russian air defense is active in Russian-occupied Crimea. An explosion can be seen and locals claim that an oil depot has been hit in Feodosia, which would be 250 km from the current frontline.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 07:21
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Footage of the actual moment a Ukrainian naval drone reached the Russian Project 775 war/landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk confirming it wasn't destroyed on its approach contrary to the claims of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

According to the Ukrainian SBU, the naval drone carried a payload of 450kg TNT and the operation was carried out with help of the Ukrainian Navy. As a result, the Olenegorsky Gornyk received a serious blow and is now unable to perform combat tasks.

​​​​​​​…The Russian regime first triumphantly claimed that the attack was repelled but here we have footage of a heavily damage Ropucha class landing ship, possibly the “Olenegorsky Gornyak”. She has heavy list to her port side.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 09:18
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Another video of a Russian landing ship that was reportedly damaged this morning being towed.

The man filming the video says the ship is heavily listing and sinking deeper the further it goes.

​​​​​​​Hard to say what will happen to it but it doesn't look healthy.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 09:22
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BREAKING ‼️ In addition to the damaged Russian navy ship, the Novorossiysk attack might have damaged the oil pipeline per local chats

The attack was undoubtedly successful, though Russians claim exactly the opposite initially



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Old 4th Aug 2023, 09:32
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Originally Posted by ORAC
Footage of the actual moment a Ukrainian naval drone reached the Russian Project 775 war/landing ship Olenegorsky Gornyk confirming it wasn't destroyed on its approach contrary to the claims of the Russian Ministry of Defense.

According to the Ukrainian SBU, the naval drone carried a payload of 450kg TNT and the operation was carried out with help of the Ukrainian Navy. As a result, the Olenegorsky Gornyk received a serious blow and is now unable to perform combat tasks.



…The Russian regime first triumphantly claimed that the attack was repelled but here we have footage of a heavily damage Ropucha class landing ship, possibly the “Olenegorsky Gornyak”. She has heavy list to her port side.
The successful attack on the Russian vessel at Novorossiysk using a surface USV drone is very important. About a month ago there were some less successful UAV drone air attacks against something at the Novorossiysk port, most likely oil tankage. Now we have a successful attack against a major surface combatant vessel. And it was accompanied by first-person-video footage that showed it performing an evasive course at night prior to impact. Not that anything seemed to be firing back - you can see the main radar-controlled guns still fore-and-aft that are supposed to be the best way of stopping a drone attack. So either Starlink is now enabled for Russian territorial waters, or Ukraine has an alternative and very viable comms solution.

The Novorossiysk port is the only other Black Sea port of any significance in Russian control other than Sevastpol. The Russians had withdrawn a lot of their fleet to Novorossiysk to get them away from the high-risk drone attacks in Sevastpol. Also Novorossiysk is an important cargo port for both oil and grain and general cargo. This gives Russia a real headache. No safe back area for these marine assets.

(No wonder they requisitioned those civilian ferry ro-ros a few days ago)

(I'm not 100% certain exactly where the attack took place. I think it was at Novorossiysk slightly away from the location where we see the badly listing ship (LST) with a tug and towline in daylight. The nightime final-run shots have a lot of background lights that look as if the ship is further out from Novorossisk.I think the Russians then towed her further in.)


It also means two sides get to sit at the table when discussing shipping embargos: and not just on grain. Also on oil, and general cargo. Insurers will be declaring Novorossiysk a war zone area soon, if not already.

Also note that there have been surface drone attacks using 1-3 drones at least twice per week in the last few weeks. This indicates that Ukraine has quite a useful medium volume production line going, and also the full sensor-to-shooter network to do ocean surveillance, target identification, acquisition, USV mission planning delivery and final manouevre. Continually. I think the last strike was against some ships a hundred miles out at sea. I think Russian war vessels are now at risk anywhere in the sector I have dashed in. Good effort, BZ all.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 10:16
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Here's a video of the ship from another angle. The list seems quite severe.
I doubt this one will sail on its own power ever again as Russkies aren't really reknown of their ability to repair anything. Certain aircraft carrier comes to mind.


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Old 4th Aug 2023, 11:15
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​​​​​​​⚡️Security Service of Ukraine established that Russia wants to use Wagner PMC to involve Belarus in a full-scale war against Ukraine.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has obtained intelligence indicating that Russians are preparing a large-scale false flag provocation at the strategic facility of Belarus - Mozyr Oil Refinery.

According to available data, a sabotage and reconnaissance group consisting of Russian military personnel and Russian special services officers who were sent to the territory of Belarus under the guise of Wagner PMC fighters is preparing an attack.

This Russian reconnaissance group is supposed to carry out a provocation at the refinery, posing as "Ukrainian saboteurs." The Russian Federation plans to blame Ukraine for the crime in order to once again try to involve Minsk in a full-scale war against our country.

The SSU received information about the planned terrorist attack in Belarus from several sources - in particular, from the testimony of a Russian Armed Forces serviceman, who was captured by Ukrainian defenders in Zaporizhzhia direction.

SSU cyber specialists also recovered and analyzed information on the captured Russian serviceman's cell phone.

Among other things, it was established that he had previously participated in hostilities against the Defense Forces in the South of Ukraine, and recently he was instructed to relocate to Belarus as a member of Wagner PMC.

Already at the stage of changing the place of service, the Russian military received information about a "special mission" at the Mozyr Oil Refinery. Security Service of Ukraine cyber specialists found deleted correspondence with other performers, pictures of the facility and some information about the operation on his phone.

Security Service of Ukraine warns the Belarusian army against participating in a full-scale war against Ukraine. Every invader who crosses the border of our country will be destroyed by our security and defense forces.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 11:21
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The Russian regime first triumphantly claimed that the attack was repelled

The Russian regime just can't help themselves from trying to hide the truth. Nice that the Ukrainians can prove otherwise.
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Old 4th Aug 2023, 11:44
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Originally Posted by ORAC
⚡️Security Service of Ukraine established that Russia wants to use Wagner PMC to involve Belarus in a full-scale war against Ukraine.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has obtained intelligence indicating that Russians are preparing a large-scale false flag provocation at the strategic facility of Belarus - Mozyr Oil Refinery.

According to available data, a sabotage and reconnaissance group consisting of Russian military personnel and Russian special services officers who were sent to the territory of Belarus under the guise of Wagner PMC fighters is preparing an attack.

This Russian reconnaissance group is supposed to carry out a provocation at the refinery, posing as "Ukrainian saboteurs." The Russian Federation plans to blame Ukraine for the crime in order to once again try to involve Minsk in a full-scale war against our country.

The SSU received information about the planned terrorist attack in Belarus from several sources - in particular, from the testimony of a Russian Armed Forces serviceman, who was captured by Ukrainian defenders in Zaporizhzhia direction.

SSU cyber specialists also recovered and analyzed information on the captured Russian serviceman's cell phone..
That is entirely consistent with historical Russian provocation, like how they started their involvement in Afghanistan, Chechnya, Ukraine etc. Russia is reliable, expect the worst of a nation, and there is Russia.

WRT the Ropucha class, it was initially odd why such a vessel would have been outdoors, but as it transpires to have been in the roadstead of Novo, that makes sense. Ukraine has definitely left RF with out any safe anchorage in the Black Sea that can't be bottled up with a long range strike. Would be so much less pollution and grief if RF were behaving within their own borders.



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Old 4th Aug 2023, 13:49
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Originally Posted by NutLoose
so without going to article 5 does this not give Romania with Ukraines permission the right to join in the air defence and take down drones / missiles that may or may not be threatening Romanian territory?
What the Romanian government is more likely to do first is to file a formal protest to the Russian government via their embassy.
They may also prepare their air defense assets to do as you suggest.
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