Ukraine War Thread Part 2
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Can I bring a word of caution?
I, as many here have watched this excellent forum with Mr Nutloose and others, all for a UKR victory as myself, should just maybe take a step back in some cases.
Russia should not be underestimated.
I have (as I'm sure you all have), seen and heard from (at the end of the day), our 'Westernized' news feeds etc, showing the incompetencies, old technology and with bad leadership, brought to our eyes.
Doesn't Russia have its own Glonass GPS system? So able to do its own missile targeting?
Doesn't it have its own Satellite imaging info?
Doesn't it have its own Drone (DJI), supplies, bought from any supermarket supplies (Its own big drones and Iran's)?
The recently taken back Blahodatne village, is all over the news world feeds has/had a population of 150 people!
I accept the 'morale/symbolic' version of this. but seriously, a world news feed on a village of a 150?
Even Denys (YT), mentioned in the recent Lep2 and other Bradley stuff being taken out - made a comment - that the UKR may still have Russian thought generals/commanders using old style tactics.
From what I have read, the Russians laid out a well-planned 'minefield' path for the UKR, forcing them to follow and blew them up accordingly!
Rommel was an excellent 'static' planning general.
The blowing up of the dam(s) - whilst terrible (Dam Busters - no villages/crops suffered?), may have indeed affected the Offensive.
I guess, in my watching's of Stormin Norman in Desert Strom, The UKR would/should have just plowed through with the heavy Armour deep, and the following light armour and personnel later to hold and secure the back fill.
I'm hopeful and yet concerned, that the UKR should/might have the latest best tech from Five Eyes. But is it being advised from the best of the Western Warfare Generals advice on this new offensive - where to go, road to go down, where the enemy is, send these forces to X Y Z...?
Surely, the West is putting its best in to make Russia - make it weaker - back out and it is putting what it can to achieve this?
There's now seriously a LOT of $ and £ being pumped into this...
How can 'we' lose...?
I hope the UKR gets back Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas), and if possible - the ultimate downfall of Putin - Crimea.
My thoughts.
I, as many here have watched this excellent forum with Mr Nutloose and others, all for a UKR victory as myself, should just maybe take a step back in some cases.
Russia should not be underestimated.
I have (as I'm sure you all have), seen and heard from (at the end of the day), our 'Westernized' news feeds etc, showing the incompetencies, old technology and with bad leadership, brought to our eyes.
Doesn't Russia have its own Glonass GPS system? So able to do its own missile targeting?
Doesn't it have its own Satellite imaging info?
Doesn't it have its own Drone (DJI), supplies, bought from any supermarket supplies (Its own big drones and Iran's)?
The recently taken back Blahodatne village, is all over the news world feeds has/had a population of 150 people!
I accept the 'morale/symbolic' version of this. but seriously, a world news feed on a village of a 150?
Even Denys (YT), mentioned in the recent Lep2 and other Bradley stuff being taken out - made a comment - that the UKR may still have Russian thought generals/commanders using old style tactics.
From what I have read, the Russians laid out a well-planned 'minefield' path for the UKR, forcing them to follow and blew them up accordingly!
Rommel was an excellent 'static' planning general.
The blowing up of the dam(s) - whilst terrible (Dam Busters - no villages/crops suffered?), may have indeed affected the Offensive.
I guess, in my watching's of Stormin Norman in Desert Strom, The UKR would/should have just plowed through with the heavy Armour deep, and the following light armour and personnel later to hold and secure the back fill.
I'm hopeful and yet concerned, that the UKR should/might have the latest best tech from Five Eyes. But is it being advised from the best of the Western Warfare Generals advice on this new offensive - where to go, road to go down, where the enemy is, send these forces to X Y Z...?
Surely, the West is putting its best in to make Russia - make it weaker - back out and it is putting what it can to achieve this?
There's now seriously a LOT of $ and £ being pumped into this...
How can 'we' lose...?
I hope the UKR gets back Donetsk and Luhansk (Donbas), and if possible - the ultimate downfall of Putin - Crimea.
My thoughts.
Glonass: too few satellites, too old satellites, too few receivers: https://ridl.io/satellites-of-stagnation/
Satellite imaging, nowhere near the capabilities of western commercial and military equipment: https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...ng-in-ukraine/
Drone supplies: Russian industry is unable to evolve, is very dependant on foreign chip supplies and now building a factory with the help of Iran: https://www.newsweek.com/russia-dron...d-uavs-1803816, https://apnews.com/article/russia-ir...935cb24c82421a
Regarding news over Blahodatne: it is good for the morale. It may not be big, it may not be significant from strategic point of view, but it is a start.
Reg Leos/Bradleys taken out: no one said those are invincible. Much is depending on the commanders, much is dependant on the opposition. Some will be lost, no doubt. Once the F16's are released some of those will be lost as well. What however is important is that none of the Leos "blew a turret", and if the reports are correct the crews got away to fight another day and some of those have already been salvaged from the field. I bet those crews are much more competent next time, those who are in T-xx mostly don't live long enough to learn. There really is a difference in western kit and Russian kit. When the time comes I bet that no Ukrainian pilot will be lost due the F16 bang seat not working.
I really am in no position to know nor guess what information the UKR commanders are receiving. Surely there are old habits dying hard. however I am convinced that the Ukrainians are eager to learn, they've already proved to be capable to.
"The Russian Federation is preparing a man-made catastrophe in the occupied Crimea" — GUR
The terrorist attack is planned at the "Crimean Titan" enterprise, where about 200 tons of industrial ammonia are used.
In the event of an explosion, the occupied Armyansk, where the Russians are preparing for the evacuation of representatives of the occupation administration and the local population, as well as the Krasnoperekop and Kherson region, will be under the threat of an ammonia cloud.
Retired Ukrainian colonel Roman Svitan stated that, should Russia blow up the Crimean Titan factory, a hypothetical Ukrainian attack into Russian-controlled Crimea would be temporarily hindered, unless Ukrainian troops were equipped with chemical protection suits.…
The terrorist attack is planned at the "Crimean Titan" enterprise, where about 200 tons of industrial ammonia are used.
In the event of an explosion, the occupied Armyansk, where the Russians are preparing for the evacuation of representatives of the occupation administration and the local population, as well as the Krasnoperekop and Kherson region, will be under the threat of an ammonia cloud.
Retired Ukrainian colonel Roman Svitan stated that, should Russia blow up the Crimean Titan factory, a hypothetical Ukrainian attack into Russian-controlled Crimea would be temporarily hindered, unless Ukrainian troops were equipped with chemical protection suits.…
As nasty as that sounds, the 30 minute lethal concentration of NH3 is around 2500-5000ppm, with 500ppm being the minimum lethal dose. The stuff is around 60% of the density of air, so, it will dissipate vertically reasonably promptly, of course anything nearby when it gets released will be nasty, need lots of PBE etc. On any normal sort of day, the dispersion of a cloud of NH3 will end up with a relatively small footprint at ground level, generally downwind of the release point. Assuming that you get a day that is calm, light n variable etc, then the max sort of concentration will be in the order of a 10km long x 0.5km wide x 100m high cloud, and that is being pessimistic, the cloud will rapidly rise from the surface... but that gives a concentration of around half the minimum lethal dose of 500ppm. Immediately down wind of the release, it will be lethal without protection, but it will be a cloud that rises from ground level within a couple of hundred meters, and will then be dispersed, with very low concentration levels. Our blood has NH3 in it normally lower than 50umol, an increase to 100umol can have physiological effects, 200+umol have serious complications.
Kherson city is 100km west of Armyansk... they won't even get enough to improve their garden nitrogen levels. Ammonia refrigeration leaks in fishing boats and ships can be fatal, where there is no fresh air supply for the victim. At least it is readily recognisable but can be debilitating pretty quickly.
There are enough issues of concern in Ukraine from the actions of the vandals, but this is unlikely to affect more than the local population immediately downwind of a rupture.
Aviation content. Ammonia was the fuel used on the Bell X-15, it has about 1/4 the energy density of pure hydrogen but is much easier to handle if not still inherently dangerous and stinky. On oxidising there is a NOx and H2O in the exhaust plume.
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There already is one ammonia leak, I posted a while back.
Re the losses, lesson learnt etc and things will improve because of it, advancing in front of a Bradley returning fire was nuts, and those doing it were not turret rotated to engage the threat either. Simple things make the difference.
Re the losses, lesson learnt etc and things will improve because of it, advancing in front of a Bradley returning fire was nuts, and those doing it were not turret rotated to engage the threat either. Simple things make the difference.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Prigozhin has crossed yet another "red line". This time he simpy warned: if Shoigu tries to take over Wagner PMC, Shoigu will die.
This statement was made in response to Russian ministry of defense deciding to make all "volunteer units" to be under Russian armed forces' subordination….
This statement was made in response to Russian ministry of defense deciding to make all "volunteer units" to be under Russian armed forces' subordination….
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IMHO what needs to happen is Ukraine expels Russia and then is immediately brought into the NATO family, heck they must be close to meeting equipment requirements now and that would stop any further Russian intervention into the Country.
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This is what we need..... more in-fighting
Prigozhin has crossed yet another "red line". This time he simpy warned: if Shoigu tries to take over Wagner PMC, Shoigu will die. This statement was made in response to Russian ministry of defense deciding to make all "volunteer units" to be under Russian armed forces' subordination. Prigozhin says he only followed Surovikin's orders and the latter is the only sensible general. There are three possible reasons for mentioning the general like that: 1. Surovikin already has tense relations with Gerasimov (head of Russian General Staff). He might be "fired" together with Wagner, and it is a question of making the first move. 2. This can give him some space for maneuvering when the time comes. If it comes to that, "negotiations" between Surovikin and Prigozhin could be held. The former would promise to obey some requirements, the latter would be able to exit the situation without losing his dignity. 3. Prigozhin is just cynically using Surovikin.
I'm a little surprised to see no comments or a seperate thread on this:
Exercise Air Defender.
It's all over the news in Germany.
Exercise Air Defender.
The NATO military alliance has begun war games in the skies over Germany. Three flight zones will be temporarily closed to civilian air traffic, and delays to civilian flights are expected.
Formally it is not a NATO exercise but a german one organised by Luftwaffe with NATO participants. Note that only bases within former West Germany get used. However the active airspace includes former East Germany.
The Independent's View: How a massive Nato air exercise in Germany could delay your plane this month.
I see the usual suspects are calling it a provocation of Russia over Ukraine - clearly back in 2018 the planners had amazing foresight.
About half the participating aircraft are from 40+ ANG units.
According to the Air Force Times the KC-46s will be 'troubleshooting' their planned role as communication nodes as part of the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS).
I see the usual suspects are calling it a provocation of Russia over Ukraine - clearly back in 2018 the planners had amazing foresight.
About half the participating aircraft are from 40+ ANG units.
According to the Air Force Times the KC-46s will be 'troubleshooting' their planned role as communication nodes as part of the Advanced Battle Management System (ABMS).
TEOTWAWKI.
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If the film is verified then i feel sorry for them and their families [who will probably be lied to, ie died courageously defending, chose a lada, goat, cow, cooking oil or whatever].
Perhaps they should have advanced forward with white flags, from what i've read they would be treated with the respect that POWs are afforded.
I'm a little surprised to see no comments or a seperate thread on this:
Exercise Air Defender.
It's all over the news in Germany.
Exercise Air Defender.
It's all over the news in Germany.
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I agree but the conscripts just probably wanted to "withdraw" to a safer place with little or no thought that there own side would attack, let alone shoot them.
If the film is verified then i feel sorry for them and their families [who will probably be lied to, ie died courageously defending, chose a lada, goat, cow, cooking oil or whatever].
Perhaps they should have advanced forward with white flags, from what i've read they would be treated with the respect that POWs are afforded.
If the film is verified then i feel sorry for them and their families [who will probably be lied to, ie died courageously defending, chose a lada, goat, cow, cooking oil or whatever].
Perhaps they should have advanced forward with white flags, from what i've read they would be treated with the respect that POWs are afforded.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Maybe time for the Ukrainians to let the Russians sort it out amongst themselves…
Today, Shoigu ordered Russian soldiers that they shoot to kill any Wagner PMC mercenaries they encounter.….
Today, Shoigu ordered Russian soldiers that they shoot to kill any Wagner PMC mercenaries they encounter.….