Ukraine War Thread Part 2
I think you have called the sequence and extent of the damage about right, soarbum. Indicated elsewhere that the water level is expected to drain down to approximately the 3m level, which means there is still a hell of a lot of water to come (roughly 12m at present) I'm not sure though that I buy the proposition that the breach was purely accidental, entirely though. Coinciding with the beginning stages of the counter-offensive is just a little too neat, although a cock-up thanks to nervous local troops isn't beyond the realms of possibility I guess.
Ironically though, from a military perspective the Russians have now shot their bolt and the potential for unleashing a sudden torrent on attacking Ukranian forces downstream of the dam, is gone. The land will dry sooner or later, opening the way for an attack across the Dnipro.
Ironically though, from a military perspective the Russians have now shot their bolt and the potential for unleashing a sudden torrent on attacking Ukranian forces downstream of the dam, is gone. The land will dry sooner or later, opening the way for an attack across the Dnipro.
Judging from the video clips of a smart new dinghy/zodiac or two being used there for rescue work by the Ukrainian troops, those being ready and in place may have been one silver lining to this tragedy.
As to the cause of the collapse, such finger-pointing is natural in a war zone. The contributing physical causes will be multifaceted, but ultimately asa bull in a China shop an artificial presence, Russia should never have been there, so it looks as if karma has come home to roost bite them. Certainly this flooding will have rolled new dice for the generals on both sides, while the poor human and animal populations (save the swans and other aquatic birds) have had to shoulder added suffering. Grant them fortitude, stamina, and quick and thorough resolution!
As to the cause of the collapse, such finger-pointing is natural in a war zone. The contributing physical causes will be multifaceted, but ultimately as
Last edited by jolihokistix; 9th Jun 2023 at 04:32.
A few more images to ponder...
The first shows the dam before the collapse. The hydro is off and most of the sluice gates are closed despite the swelling levels in the Dnipro.
The red lines that I put in are where I think that the limits of the concrete section are. This is a huge slab up to a height of 12.7m above base on which is built the sluice gates, the road bridge and the HPP station.
Left and right of the red lines, the dam is earthen and not designed to have any water flowing over it.
Next, we have the after shot with two distinct flows. Flow A is going over the 12.7m concrete dam through where half of the sluice gates would have been and through the ruins of the HPP.
I suspect that when the level drops below 12.7m (and it may already have), Flow A will dry up.
Flow B is going through what was previously earthen and will erode a much deeper channel. If the concrete base of A is still intact then soon, all of the water will go through Flow B.
Finally, I add the streetview showing the area that Flow B now occupies. If the gates had gone first, the resevoir level would have dropped so I can't see why water would have afterwards flowed through B.
I think it more likely that the reservoir got so high that the water washed down the grass bank in the pic below around the left side of the HPP first. Perhaps it eroded under foundations causing the building to collapse and lots of pre-laid munitions to go boom.
As for rebuilding, if the underlying slab has survied intact, the water is already diverted through Flow B so the site at A should dry up. If new sluice gates and road bridge can be built on the slab, then a coffer dam could be built from the end of the canal spit in an arc to the new gates. That would block Flow B and leave the old site of the HPP dry for rebuilting over the next 5-10 years but at least in the meantime, levels could be regulated as before.
The first shows the dam before the collapse. The hydro is off and most of the sluice gates are closed despite the swelling levels in the Dnipro.
The red lines that I put in are where I think that the limits of the concrete section are. This is a huge slab up to a height of 12.7m above base on which is built the sluice gates, the road bridge and the HPP station.
Left and right of the red lines, the dam is earthen and not designed to have any water flowing over it.
Next, we have the after shot with two distinct flows. Flow A is going over the 12.7m concrete dam through where half of the sluice gates would have been and through the ruins of the HPP.
I suspect that when the level drops below 12.7m (and it may already have), Flow A will dry up.
Flow B is going through what was previously earthen and will erode a much deeper channel. If the concrete base of A is still intact then soon, all of the water will go through Flow B.
Finally, I add the streetview showing the area that Flow B now occupies. If the gates had gone first, the resevoir level would have dropped so I can't see why water would have afterwards flowed through B.
I think it more likely that the reservoir got so high that the water washed down the grass bank in the pic below around the left side of the HPP first. Perhaps it eroded under foundations causing the building to collapse and lots of pre-laid munitions to go boom.
As for rebuilding, if the underlying slab has survied intact, the water is already diverted through Flow B so the site at A should dry up. If new sluice gates and road bridge can be built on the slab, then a coffer dam could be built from the end of the canal spit in an arc to the new gates. That would block Flow B and leave the old site of the HPP dry for rebuilting over the next 5-10 years but at least in the meantime, levels could be regulated as before.
I was taken aback when a previous poster mentioned that this reservoir had a greater volume than the largest five California volumes, so added them up, and, yep, 400,000 acre feet greater. The Grand Coulee dam is 10,000,000 acre feet, considerably less than the 14,500,000 acre feet of this dam. This has really brought this disaster into perspective, as I live in Yakima, where irrigation is king. Someone, and I suspect I know who that might be, deserves to be punished for this terrorist act. Won't happen though.
A few more images to ponder...
The first shows the dam before the collapse. The hydro is off and most of the sluice gates are closed despite the swelling levels in the Dnipro.
The red lines that I put in are where I think that the limits of the concrete section are. This is a huge slab up to a height of 12.7m above base on which is built the sluice gates, the road bridge and the HPP station.
Left and right of the red lines, the dam is earthen and not designed to have any water flowing over it.
Next, we have the after shot with two distinct flows. Flow A is going over the 12.7m concrete dam through where half of the sluice gates would have been and through the ruins of the HPP.
I suspect that when the level drops below 12.7m (and it may already have), Flow A will dry up.
Flow B is going through what was previously earthen and will erode a much deeper channel. If the concrete base of A is still intact then soon, all of the water will go through Flow B.
Finally, I add the streetview showing the area that Flow B now occupies. If the gates had gone first, the resevoir level would have dropped so I can't see why water would have afterwards flowed through B.
I think it more likely that the reservoir got so high that the water washed down the grass bank in the pic below around the left side of the HPP first. Perhaps it eroded under foundations causing the building to collapse and lots of pre-laid munitions to go boom.
As for rebuilding, if the underlying slab has survied intact, the water is already diverted through Flow B so the site at A should dry up. If new sluice gates and road bridge can be built on the slab, then a coffer dam could be built from the end of the canal spit in an arc to the new gates. That would block Flow B and leave the old site of the HPP dry for rebuilting over the next 5-10 years but at least in the meantime, levels could be regulated as before.
The first shows the dam before the collapse. The hydro is off and most of the sluice gates are closed despite the swelling levels in the Dnipro.
The red lines that I put in are where I think that the limits of the concrete section are. This is a huge slab up to a height of 12.7m above base on which is built the sluice gates, the road bridge and the HPP station.
Left and right of the red lines, the dam is earthen and not designed to have any water flowing over it.
Next, we have the after shot with two distinct flows. Flow A is going over the 12.7m concrete dam through where half of the sluice gates would have been and through the ruins of the HPP.
I suspect that when the level drops below 12.7m (and it may already have), Flow A will dry up.
Flow B is going through what was previously earthen and will erode a much deeper channel. If the concrete base of A is still intact then soon, all of the water will go through Flow B.
Finally, I add the streetview showing the area that Flow B now occupies. If the gates had gone first, the resevoir level would have dropped so I can't see why water would have afterwards flowed through B.
I think it more likely that the reservoir got so high that the water washed down the grass bank in the pic below around the left side of the HPP first. Perhaps it eroded under foundations causing the building to collapse and lots of pre-laid munitions to go boom.
As for rebuilding, if the underlying slab has survied intact, the water is already diverted through Flow B so the site at A should dry up. If new sluice gates and road bridge can be built on the slab, then a coffer dam could be built from the end of the canal spit in an arc to the new gates. That would block Flow B and leave the old site of the HPP dry for rebuilting over the next 5-10 years but at least in the meantime, levels could be regulated as before.
What appears to be near laminar flow through your area A does suggest that the underlying support sections of the spillway gates may still be in position, which does suggest that the flooding through your region B will continue until there is no water level differential, and all flow thereafter will still continue through B with reduced pressure.
Can't see an obvious reason why a failure of the area at B would result in a failure at A, but the reverse is quite possible. The high velocity and mass flow through the breach at A would result in a counter clockwise vortex flow around the left bank, (and a clockwise vortex around the right bank but the geometry of the walls there is quite different). The counter clockwise vortex on the left bank would scour the area of the left bank, and that should have had an erosion cladding of some form to prevent erosion from the normal flow from the turbines, which are much lower exit velocity than the spillway flow, but still will result in a vortex structure in that area.
Judging from the video clips of a smart new dinghy/zodiac or two being used there for rescue work by the Ukrainian troops, those being ready and in place may have been one silver lining to this tragedy.
As to the cause of the collapse, such finger-pointing is natural in a war zone. The contributing physical causes will be multifaceted, but ultimately asa bull in a China shop an artificial presence, Russia should never have been there, so it looks as if karma has come home to roost bite them. Certainly this flooding will have rolled new dice for the generals on both sides, while the poor human and animal populations (save the swans and other aquatic birds) have had to shoulder added suffering. Grant them fortitude, stamina, and quick and thorough resolution!
As to the cause of the collapse, such finger-pointing is natural in a war zone. The contributing physical causes will be multifaceted, but ultimately as
As the loss of this dam is a foreseeable outcome from the violence of their criminal actions, I would think the following aptly applies:
Making full reparation for the injury caused by an internationally wrongful act is a “principle of international law, and even a general conception of law”. The principle implies that reparation “must, as far as possible, wipe out all the consequences of the illegal act and reestablish the situation which would, in all probability, have existed if that act had not been committed." The reparation is considered “full” – whatever its form – if it covers all injuries caused by the internationally wrongful act.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Bloomberg reports, citing administration officials, that the US will announce a new arms package for Ukraine valued at more than $2bn as soon as Friday.
The funds under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative will be heavy on air defence munitions and will help Ukraine purchase Hawk missile launchers and two types of advanced Patriot air defence missiles, the report said.
The funds under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative will be heavy on air defence munitions and will help Ukraine purchase Hawk missile launchers and two types of advanced Patriot air defence missiles, the report said.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/0...raine-00100938
Pressure builds on Biden to send long-range weapons to Ukraine
U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are making a renewed push for the Biden administration to send Ukraine controversial long-range munitions, as Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive appears to get underway.….
Now, a group of House members led by Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) is turning up the pressure. In a letter to Biden on Thursday, nine Republican and Democratic lawmakers urged the president to quickly greenlight ATACMS.
“The war in Ukraine has become a conflict of grinding attrition. We can and must help break this stalemate. By swiftly providing the Ukrainian forces with these additional capabilities, we can significantly improve their chances of victory, restore peace to Europe, and ensure a more stable and prosperous world,” the lawmakers wrote…..
The letter also calls on the president to approve other advanced weaponry, including U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and additional air defense capabilities such as another Patriot missile defense system. It also urges him to expedite the transfer of U.S. M1 Abrams tanks, which are expected to arrive in Ukraine by the end of the year.….
Kyiv itself is also making a new push for ATACMS. Ukrainian military officers told House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mike McCaul (R-Texas) in a recent teleconference that they need the weapons to prosecute their counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion force and to cut off Russian access to Crimea, he said.…
Enabling Kyiv’s battlefield successes would also buoy public opinion in the U.S. in favor of more Ukraine military aid money, when Biden asks Congress in the fall for a new supplemental, McCaul noted.
“What happens in this counteroffensive is going to be key in terms of support from the American people. So that’s why I’ve been a big proponent of the administration giving them everything they need, which they have not,” McCaul said.
“They still want long-range artillery to hit Crimea because they want to cut the land bridge between Russia and Crimea.”
McCaul says that pressure is intensifying, from both Democrats and Republicans. “There are a lot of Democrats that want this administration to be doing more, because the longer they drag it out, that’s what [Vladimir] Putin wants,” McCaul said….
Pressure builds on Biden to send long-range weapons to Ukraine
U.S. lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are making a renewed push for the Biden administration to send Ukraine controversial long-range munitions, as Kyiv’s long-expected counteroffensive appears to get underway.….
Now, a group of House members led by Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) is turning up the pressure. In a letter to Biden on Thursday, nine Republican and Democratic lawmakers urged the president to quickly greenlight ATACMS.
“The war in Ukraine has become a conflict of grinding attrition. We can and must help break this stalemate. By swiftly providing the Ukrainian forces with these additional capabilities, we can significantly improve their chances of victory, restore peace to Europe, and ensure a more stable and prosperous world,” the lawmakers wrote…..
The letter also calls on the president to approve other advanced weaponry, including U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets and additional air defense capabilities such as another Patriot missile defense system. It also urges him to expedite the transfer of U.S. M1 Abrams tanks, which are expected to arrive in Ukraine by the end of the year.….
Kyiv itself is also making a new push for ATACMS. Ukrainian military officers told House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Mike McCaul (R-Texas) in a recent teleconference that they need the weapons to prosecute their counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion force and to cut off Russian access to Crimea, he said.…
Enabling Kyiv’s battlefield successes would also buoy public opinion in the U.S. in favor of more Ukraine military aid money, when Biden asks Congress in the fall for a new supplemental, McCaul noted.
“What happens in this counteroffensive is going to be key in terms of support from the American people. So that’s why I’ve been a big proponent of the administration giving them everything they need, which they have not,” McCaul said.
“They still want long-range artillery to hit Crimea because they want to cut the land bridge between Russia and Crimea.”
McCaul says that pressure is intensifying, from both Democrats and Republicans. “There are a lot of Democrats that want this administration to be doing more, because the longer they drag it out, that’s what [Vladimir] Putin wants,” McCaul said….
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The portion of the canal bank you are talking about is probably simply under water.
I love the cyclist simply pottering along.
I love the cyclist simply pottering along.
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Wow 1010 reported Russian losses.
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As you can see the whole right bank of the canal appears to be under water as viewed from the helicopter at the start of the film.
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water at the power plant is stable and sufficient.
water at the power plant is stable and sufficient.
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...CwyZ3g0KIuAAAA
https://twitter.com/Flash_news_ua/st...CwyZ3g0KIuAAAA
That is good news for now. The question is how will it be for the next week, month, year... this is a slow train wreck if the water supply to the cooling ponds cannot be topped up. It is still the best news in the last 2 days of darkness.
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Russian care of infrastructure during criminal occupation.
Those look much more like entry, not exit impacts...
Last edited by fdr; 9th Jun 2023 at 10:31.
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Ukrainan forces advancing for City Tokmak.. !!! liberated Lobkove!!The AFU advanced close to Robotyne...
Waiting for confirmation, however, there are multiple reports over the last hours of #Ukraine forces making it to #Robotyne
Waiting for confirmation, however, there are multiple reports over the last hours of #Ukraine forces making it to #Robotyne
Can somebody in the know estimate how much water a plant like ZPP would require while shut down? I get the need for cooling ponds, for spent fuel rods etc, but I'm sure the water in those is recirculated through some cooling plant/area. There will obviously be losses; what would the make-up water consumption be?
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U.K. no longer has the facilities to manufacture gun barrels for the likes of the challenger as spares for Ukraine.
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/l...ystems-admits/
https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/l...ystems-admits/
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Some serious amount of kit on the move
I despair at people who feel it necessary to say 'I know more than you do' and demonstrate it.
All information is of use to the enemy (including what is know about them).
Careless talk still costs lives.
All information is of use to the enemy (including what is know about them).
Careless talk still costs lives.
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