Ukraine War Thread Part 2
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Expert civil engineering view of the destruction of the dam and its replacement.
Summary - the central concrete portion containing the sluice gates, generators etc was destroyed by explosions. Replacement will require removing parts of the flanking earth embankments to allow a path of the river whilst the central portion is then rebuilt. Forecast is many years of work.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...am-08-06-2023/
Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine’s breached Nova Kakhovka dam
Repairing the destroyed Nova Kakhkovka hydroelectric dam in Ukraine will be a difficult and time consuming task, according to experts.…
Summary - the central concrete portion containing the sluice gates, generators etc was destroyed by explosions. Replacement will require removing parts of the flanking earth embankments to allow a path of the river whilst the central portion is then rebuilt. Forecast is many years of work.
https://www.newcivilengineer.com/lat...am-08-06-2023/
Industry specialists assess damage on Ukraine’s breached Nova Kakhovka dam
Repairing the destroyed Nova Kakhkovka hydroelectric dam in Ukraine will be a difficult and time consuming task, according to experts.…
True, but the spillway section was not earthen dam, it was reinforced concrete. The earthen dam section was the road section leading up to the spillway AFAIK. Maybe I'm misunderstanding the design; the dam was built in 1956 - are there drawings of the dam structure? Was this a concrete spillway on top of an earthen dam? That is certainly not unheard of, the recent Oroville dam debacle in California is certainly an example of this.
Here's some photos that help with the timeline.
This was the dam on 22nd October 2022. The water level is high (overtopping the spillways) and the hydro plant is off:
These two images are from 1st June and 2nd June. They show the first visible damage the road missing over part of the spillway above a sluice:
This is another view of the initial damage from 2nd June:
The dam had been over filled for months. The hydro plant was shut off a year ago. Looks like no one bothered to open the flood sluice. The flood sluice is under that damaged section of road.
Once the flood sluice was damaged/blown water just got under the concrete (to the left in these images). After four days the section to the left failed catastrophically.
May be Russia blew the dam. May be they just engineered its failure by failing to open the flood sluice. They clearly didn't open this. The dam water level had been over its design maximum for months.
Whether it was deliberate action or negligent action makes no odds. Russia carries full responsibility either way.
This was the dam on 22nd October 2022. The water level is high (overtopping the spillways) and the hydro plant is off:
These two images are from 1st June and 2nd June. They show the first visible damage the road missing over part of the spillway above a sluice:
This is another view of the initial damage from 2nd June:
The dam had been over filled for months. The hydro plant was shut off a year ago. Looks like no one bothered to open the flood sluice. The flood sluice is under that damaged section of road.
Once the flood sluice was damaged/blown water just got under the concrete (to the left in these images). After four days the section to the left failed catastrophically.
May be Russia blew the dam. May be they just engineered its failure by failing to open the flood sluice. They clearly didn't open this. The dam water level had been over its design maximum for months.
Whether it was deliberate action or negligent action makes no odds. Russia carries full responsibility either way.
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The evidence I've looked at suggests you're right. The water level had been a metre and half above the max for a while. Once water gets under the concrete it most likely just washes the foundation away.
What's not clear is why the initial failure happened. Could be just a failure because Russia hasn't managed the dam. The timing suggests it was deliberate though. The missing road section over the top of the flood sluice gate also hints at it being deliberate. Russia reportedly laid demolition charges in that area last year. A charge going off on or over the flood sluice gate during the night of 1st/2nd June may have been what blew than road section away.
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This article gives a useful insight into what happened to the Dam. The sluice gates on the dams upstream are still open making the flooding worse.
Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach (substack.com)
Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach (substack.com)
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
This does tend to suggest a coordinated strategy of dam destruction and defensive flooding, rather as the Nazis did in north-eastern France, Belgium and the Netherlands in 1944-45.
https://khpg.org/en/1608812358
Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
https://khpg.org/en/1608812358
Not Kakhovka Dam alone: Russia destroys dams in occupied Zaporizhzhia oblast
I don't know the answer to this, but we have some historical examples of the different approaches. Germany and Japan both required significant investment in reconstruction, but no-one has to spend money defending against them any more. Investment in North Korean reconstruction was minimal, but it remains a threat that costs money to mitigate.
The bottom line is that prosperous countries generally don't wage wars of aggression because they have too much to lose.
We obviously can't reconstruct Russia in the way we did with Germany and Japan without invading - which no sane person is contemplating - but building a wall around them and leaving them to suffer isn't likely to work either.
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Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Tokmak is the strategic road and rail link between Melitopol and Meriopol and the entire western half of Kherson and land bridge to Crimea…
Robotyne is just 15 miles to the north…
Reports of ongoing counterattack on the outskirts of Robotyne battles are raging.
Robotyne is just 15 miles to the north…
Reports of ongoing counterattack on the outskirts of Robotyne battles are raging.
Administrator
A quick note: I have moved the interesting, but wholly political, side bar about Nuremberg, the UN, reparations, and other political musings to Uncle Fred's most excellent Ukraine thread here.
Carry on.
Carry on.
This article gives a useful insight into what happened to the Dam. The sluice gates on the dams upstream are still open making the flooding worse.
Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach (substack.com)
Postmortem Analysis on Kakhovka Dam Breach (substack.com)
Ecce Homo! Loquitur...
Interesting developments. Yevgeny Balitsky, Russian appointed governor of the Zaporizhzia region, ordered an immediate temporarily relocation of residents living in Russian occupied Tokmak, Vasylivka and Polohy to Simferopol/Kerch (Crimea).
NORSAR - seismology and seismic monitoring.
Does this link help the debate regarding the cause of the dam collapse?
https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/...dam-in-ukraine
Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is an explosion.
Magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.
https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/...dam-in-ukraine
Data from regional seismic stations show clear signals on Tuesday 6 June at 2:54 local time (01:54 Norwegian time). Time and place coincide with reports in the media about the collapse of the Kakhovka dam. The signals indicate that there is an explosion.
Magnitude estimate is between 1 and 2.
First sightings Leopard 2 near front
Two Leo 2 supposedly advancing towards the front south of Orichw ( between Saporischschja and Mariupol ) at the head of a column including British and American fighting vehicles. Report based on Russian drone photos published in Telegram
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html
https://www.focus.de/politik/ausland..._57275780.html
https://www.isere.gouv.fr/contenu/te...n_juin2010.pdf
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There were explosions around about that time as mines were striking the banks and blowing up
Last edited by NutLoose; 8th Jun 2023 at 16:39.
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Could it get any worse? From the Guardian
The cooling pond at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Ukraine is in danger of collapse as a result of the destruction of the Kakhovka dam and the draining of its reservoir, according to a French nuclear safety organisation.
Without the reservoir on the other side to counteract it, the internal pressure of the water in the cooling pool could breach the dike around it, a report by the Paris-based Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) said.
Officials at the Ukrainian nuclear energy corporation, Energoatom, said that any collapse in the dike around the cooling pond would be partial even in a worst case scenario and there would still be sufficient water to keep reactor cores and spent fuel cool, but a loss of the cooling pool would dramatically increase safety concerns over the plant.
Since the collapse of the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday, for which Ukraine, the UN, EU and other world leaders are holding Russia responsible, its reservoir has been draining into the Dnipro river and the Black Sea beyond, and will soon drop below the water intakes used to pump water into an array of spray ponds used to cool the reactor cores.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi said:
It is vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.
Karine Herviou, the IRSN’s deputy director general for nuclear safety, said that because all six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant had been shut down some months ago as a result of fighting in the area, the plant’s cooling needs are limited and could be met by other means.
“If the dyke is destroyed as a result of the water pressure, there are other means to replenish the spray ponds, like pump trucks bringing water from the Dnipro or other water basin located nearby,” Herviou told the Guardian.
The president of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, said today that the current water supply at Zaporizhzhia is enough “to keep the nuclear power plant in a safe mode of operation” but he warned of the threat of Russian sabotage.
“The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is heavily mined - both the interior and the access roads to it,” he said. “We currently have no information about whether the Russians have mined the plant’s equipment. This will become known after the plant is liberated.”
Without the reservoir on the other side to counteract it, the internal pressure of the water in the cooling pool could breach the dike around it, a report by the Paris-based Institute for Radiation Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) said.
Officials at the Ukrainian nuclear energy corporation, Energoatom, said that any collapse in the dike around the cooling pond would be partial even in a worst case scenario and there would still be sufficient water to keep reactor cores and spent fuel cool, but a loss of the cooling pool would dramatically increase safety concerns over the plant.
Since the collapse of the Kakhovka dam on Tuesday, for which Ukraine, the UN, EU and other world leaders are holding Russia responsible, its reservoir has been draining into the Dnipro river and the Black Sea beyond, and will soon drop below the water intakes used to pump water into an array of spray ponds used to cool the reactor cores.
The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Rafael Mariano Grossi said:
It is vital that this cooling pond remains intact. Nothing must be done to potentially undermine its integrity.
Karine Herviou, the IRSN’s deputy director general for nuclear safety, said that because all six reactors at the Zaporizhzhia plant had been shut down some months ago as a result of fighting in the area, the plant’s cooling needs are limited and could be met by other means.
“If the dyke is destroyed as a result of the water pressure, there are other means to replenish the spray ponds, like pump trucks bringing water from the Dnipro or other water basin located nearby,” Herviou told the Guardian.
The president of Energoatom, Petro Kotin, said today that the current water supply at Zaporizhzhia is enough “to keep the nuclear power plant in a safe mode of operation” but he warned of the threat of Russian sabotage.
“The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is heavily mined - both the interior and the access roads to it,” he said. “We currently have no information about whether the Russians have mined the plant’s equipment. This will become known after the plant is liberated.”
Towards the Eastern side, there was a concrete channel in which was built the sluice gates and the HydroPower Plant. It is hoped that the walls and base of the channel are still intact so that a significant water level will be retained upstream as per this extract from James7's linked article above.
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The dam is mostly earthen as can be seen on this view from the West bank.
Towards the Eastern side, there was a concrete channel in which was built the sluice gates and the HydroPower Plant. It is hoped that the walls and base of the channel are still intact so that a significant water level will be retained upstream as per this extract from James7's linked article above.
Towards the Eastern side, there was a concrete channel in which was built the sluice gates and the HydroPower Plant. It is hoped that the walls and base of the channel are still intact so that a significant water level will be retained upstream as per this extract from James7's linked article above.
Last edited by Tartiflette Fan; 9th Jun 2023 at 11:05.
Based on those attached diagrams, etc,, I have a question.
Will the lake/reservoir retain some water (some percentage of its nominal capacity) and it won't all drain away, or is the breach complete enough in that one section that the ultimate 'emptying' of the lake is only a matter of time?
Will the lake/reservoir retain some water (some percentage of its nominal capacity) and it won't all drain away, or is the breach complete enough in that one section that the ultimate 'emptying' of the lake is only a matter of time?