Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[dead_pan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

All the NATO countries have increased their fast deployment capabilities. In June NATO announced to increase the high readiness troops from 40000 to over 300000. Thats plenty more than what the Russians have had in Ukraine..

I was thinking more about airpower. AFAIK there's not much in the way of forward deployments to the likes of Poland or Romania.

[peter we]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

I was thinking more about airpower. AFAIK there's not much in the way of forward deployments to the likes of Poland or Romania.

F22 and F35 deployed in Poland at least

[rattman]

Originally Posted by peter we

F22 and F35 deployed in Poland at least

Additional squadron or 2 in Europe. Poland, lithuainia and UK. Combo of F-15 and F-35. Plus the USS Gerald Ford is there atm

In reality it wouldn't take that long to surge fighters to europe

[Ninthace]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/typh...l-nato-border/
https://min.news/en/military/5def28c...bc3a40a3a.html

Do we not also have ac based in Cyprus?

[KiloB]

Has it been confirmed that the half dozen tankers that left the US simultaneously about two weeks ago weren’t trailing aircraft?

[ROC man]

Presume the deconfliction management with UKR is in place otherwise it wont be much fun flying through the UKR artillery and airforce ?

[fdr]

Originally Posted by rattman

Theres rumors going around that Georgia has/is going to restrict all russians from further outbound travel. They will only be allowed to return to russia, cannot leave to 3rd party countries

1. The refusniks are going to be a future headache, they are essentially security risks in waiting. It will be unacceptable to force them back to what is developing to be an inhumane junta (gold teeth n' all), and they will probably have a crack at political asylum, while still being all too often bad guests, per flags, abuse, harassment of refugees etc. They are a major risk of 5th column, a party trick of NKVD/GRU/KGB/FSB, (take your pick). Going to be an issue, but it will be a case that smart people will need to work out how that doesn't result in the "russian speaker" land grab saga being repeated in the future.

Originally Posted by tartare

Does anyone think UKR may be able totally eject Russia from all of Ukraine in the short-term?
The rout currently underway and the collapse that appears near in Kherson would suggest the Russians may be able to be pushed all the way back to the pre 2014 UKR-RUS border - as well as booted out of Crimea.

Current advances are amazing, riisk to Ukrainians increases as well with every mile they push forward, and their saving grace is the competency, leadership, logistics, and tactics of the mighty system that Putin put his stamp on as a master strategist. The collapse of support for Putin from China and the lack of material assistance from the land of the mountain hermits, (the guy with the curiously bad hairdresser) adds to the collapse of finance for his war, the public push back to his mobilization, and the expending of his domestic suppressive force to hold the satellite states within his grasp. The unity of the west, and China in concert with India showing discomfort with Putin is stabilizing. Erdogan may yet be the straw that breaks his resolve; Turkey can remove all income that he is getting from exports with a single stroke. Turkey can make the case that one TNW and the Russians will not be allowed any shipping by any nation into or out of the Black Sea, and that kills most income for Russia. That can also be backed up by defensive forces, Turkey has a tiff like that with Churchill back a ways... Didn't end well for our team.

Originally Posted by Big Pistons Forever

Putin may be evil but I don’t think he is stupid. He floated the nuke issue to see what the response will be. It sounds like he got his answer and not in a way good for him so the real question is how does he up the ante without risking an overwhelming response that will be unrecoverable by Russia.

I think the sabotage of the Nordstream pipe line is a signal of his intent to go after European energy infrastructure. There is lots of room for mischief with wink wink nudge nudge deniability.

If he can get the EU to crack he thinks he can leverage imposed negotiations on Ukraine with terms favourable to him…..

NATO has made the point already as I understand that messing by sabotage of NATO partner country energy would trigger Article 5. Any doubt in that is being removed by Norway looking at putting troops into strategic national assets, They become tripwires. NATO seems to be gaining resolve rather than diminishing, success breeds confidence. Not dull.

[fdr]

Originally Posted by dead_pan

Given their first round response is likely to be conventional, its noteworthy there hasn't been any noticeable stepping up of the US's conventional forces in Europe. It doesn't appear they have the forces in place here to conduct anything more than a token strike somewhere. Unless of course it'll be more along the lines of Libya, with European states committing much of the firepower.

Getting B-52's, B-1 and B-2s out of the US will take a lot of Caltex callsigns.... but can be done pretty promptly. Getting a heavy push of F-16, F-15E out will take more tankers.... A-10's.. They should be on their European vacation now... The Navy's posture has been fairly quiet, as it should be but there is going to be a lot of capability within TLAM range... (These ranges are indicative, the airports are not except maybe UKFY

Standing NATO Maritime Group 2, and the George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group (CSG) (Ionian sea...)
Go "Pukin' dogs"! “Jolly Rogers”! “Sidewinders”,“Knighthawks”, “Patriots”!

[Wokkafans]

"Four Russian fighter jets that violated Polish and Swedish airspace were chased off by European jets."

Twitter

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/stat...Sn3JXK_o5ZoaZg

[[email protected]]

"Four Russian fighter jets that violated Polish and Swedish airspace were chased off by European jets."

Maybe they were trying to defect

[langleybaston]

Originally Posted by [email protected]

Maybe they were trying to defect

Maybe indeed: perhaps less chasing and more welcoming in future, and donate the aircraft to Ukr.

Publicise a Welcome Pack. Vodka and a few other necessities of life.

[ORAC]

1917 redux….

https://twitter.com/chuckpfarrer/sta...EefzQY5zLd_ijg

IT BEGINS: Moscow's TASS news reports that mobilized troops in the Omsk region are electing spokesmen to complain about conditions and lack of pay. These are literally acts of mutiny and insubordination-- and don't bode well for the combat performance Putin’s newest troops.

[Wokkafans]

Footage of Ukrainian troops downing a Russian DJI Mavicpro drone using a EDM4S Anti-Drone gun

A rather neat piece of kit: https://mezha.media/en/2022/06/13/11...-armed-forces/

Video here: https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...eb2x&context=3

From the Russian perspective (the drone will likely be prgrammed with the "home coordionates" so if it is captured the Ukrainians wil know where it originated from and can target the area with artilery).

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...eb2x&context=3

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by langleybaston

Maybe indeed: perhaps less chasing and more welcoming in future, and donate the aircraft to Ukr.

Publicise a Welcome Pack. Vodka and a few other necessities of life.

Maybe offer 1M€ for an airworthy AC?

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/whereisrussia/st...EefzQY5zLd_ijg

BREAKING:

🇷🇺 officers have fled the city of Snihurivka.

Lower-ranking 🇷🇺soldiers remain in the city, though they will likely abandon their positions due to lack of leadership and senior-level coordination.

The city is a crucial road and rail hub.

[MPN11]

If so, what are the prospects for Kherson? Reduced to rubble in street fighting? I pray not.

[NutLoose]

Those buried sea mines were all a ploy to fake a Ukrainian arms dump explosion for the Russian TV

https://twitter.com/VictoriaYastrub/...32139331686400

Twitter

[NutLoose]

Notice how nearly everyone of them are carrying an RPG or other system as a secondary weapon.

https://twitter.com/UkrainianNews24/...08436769542144

Twitter

[Big Pistons Forever]

Originally Posted by ORAC

1917 redux….



IT BEGINS: Moscow's TASS news reports that mobilized troops in the Omsk region are electing spokesmen to complain about conditions and lack of pay. These are literally acts of mutiny and insubordination-- and don't bode well for the combat performance Putin’s newest troops.

It is not just the conscripts that are problematic. The moral in the professional officer core must be pretty bad as I think they suspect their troops are more likely to shoot them, than the enemy.
The ubiquity of social media is also a nightmare for dictators. Putin's ability to control the narrative is waning and with it his power.

Dangerous times indeed

[meleagertoo]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

Those buried sea mines were all a ploy to fake a Ukrainian arms dump explosion for the Russian TV



https://twitter.com/VictoriaYastrub/...32139331686400

Who's identified those things as "sea-mines"?
I'm no expert on sea-mines but they're barely big enough to sink a harbour tug - they're not much bigger than footballs!
If they were mnies the the det-cord must be as thick as a man's arm.
I don't believe it.
Far far too much unquestioning reliance given to twatter on this thread imho.