Is Ukraine about to have a war?

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Welt: Scholz blocks delivery of tanks to Ukraine.

Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) is ready to supply Ukraine with 100 Leopard 2A7 tanks and provide training sessions for soldiers worth 1.55 billion euros.

Yet, according to Die Welt, Chancellor Scholz did not react to the offer.

I find it a bit unplausible that the manufacturer would have 100 2A7's idling in their back yard. They might be able to deliver of course but it must be on a longer time frame and as upgrades from existing A4's or A6's, which KMW would need to obtain from Bundeswehr or some other current user.

[NutLoose]

Turkey turns down Russia’s request to buy UAV’s and Putin visits N Korea to buy ammo and rockets.

https://twitter.com/GlobalDefCorp

[meleagertoo]

Originally Posted by NutLoose

.....Putin visits N Korea to buy ammo and rockets.

https://twitter.com/GlobalDefCorp

Knowing what we do about the quality and reliability of Russia's 40-50-60-70 yr old ammo stocks what confidence would you place on anything coming from Kim Fat Wun's WW2/Korean War storage bunkers?
OK. Much of it will undoubtedly work but it smells to me of the blind leading the blind and I don't suppose even pressed Orcs from the 'stans will grow to trust or like N Korean ordnance.

[rattman]

Originally Posted by Beamr

I find it a bit unplausible that the manufacturer would have 100 2A7's idling in their back yard. They might be able to deliver of course but it must be on a longer time frame and as upgrades from existing A4's or A6's, which KMW would need to obtain from Bundeswehr or some other current user.

Correct its delivery within 3 years

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

I find it a bit unplausible that the manufacturer would have 100 2A7's idling in their back yard. They might be able to deliver of course but it must be on a longer time frame and as upgrades from existing A4's or A6's, which KMW would need to obtain from Bundeswehr or some other current user.

Not the same model ( didn't search in depth ) but Rheinmetall had 88 Leo 1A5 in the back yard in April. It is, after all, only like taking your 2010 Volvo in exchange for the 2020 model and then unloading it/them on a buyer whose pockets aren't so well padded

https://www.rnd.de/politik/rheinmeta...WGF7B3D4Q.html

[Thud_and_Blunder]

I don't suppose even pressed Orcs from the 'stans will grow to trust or like N Korean ordnance.

Don't dismiss N Korean munitions lightly. In the 1980s the Omani army lacked a suitable counter-battery weapon (PDRY had 130mm artillery), so they 'sourced' a supply of 130mm guns for themselves. Guess where the rounds came from? I only know the answer because I have one of the casings holding umbrellas and a hockey stick in the hallway..

Acquiring the casing was a proper multi-national event: the gun (Chinese-built to a Russian design, firing N Korean-made ammunition) was crewed by Omanis under the command of an NZ battery commander. After firing, a Rhodesian/Zim pilot and a Brit pilot (me) were allowed to take a couple as souvenirs; we loaded them into our US-designed, Italian-built helis for the trip home.

[ICATQ]

Originally Posted by Thud_and_Blunder

Don't dismiss N Korean munitions lightly. In the 1980s the Omani army lacked a suitable counter-battery weapon (PDRY had 130mm artillery), so they 'sourced' a supply of 130mm guns for themselves. Guess where the rounds came from? I only know the answer because I have one of the casings holding umbrellas and a hockey stick in the hallway..

Acquiring the casing was a proper multi-national event: the gun (Chinese-built to a Russian design, firing N Korean-made ammunition) was crewed by Omanis under the command of an NZ battery commander. After firing, a Rhodesian/Zim pilot and a Brit pilot (me) were allowed to take a couple as souvenirs; we loaded them into our US-designed, Italian-built helis for the trip home.

That was >40 years ago. The NK still have the same batch of ammo in stock!😉

[NutLoose]

Not looking good and sending his farewells

https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/stat...CyhbvT8L8rAAAA

Twitter

[NutLoose]

The hidden army.

https://twitter.com/LvivJournal/stat...C4zf33x74rAAAA

Twitter

[rattman]

Theres reports starting to come through that the russians are pulling a Bucha in Kherson, hope its not true and is just people BSing, but we know what they are capable of

[NutLoose]

[NutLoose]

Ukraine has or is getting a Cobra in country and working.

Cobra will be extremly helpful, it can detect in a radius of ~100 km up to 40 counter artillery system during a single scan, transfer positions directly to MLRS or Pzh2000& hit all within minutes. Would be correspond well with vulcano ammunition what hit targets up to 70 km

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/...84811319967744

Twitter

[kamanya]

When all this is done, the behind the scenes stories of the people running the show and the cut and thrust of the wars fortunes is going to be fascinating.

I bet there’s some hair raising stories of good fortune and luck along with dark days.

I hope someone is documenting it all.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

Not the same model ( didn't search in depth ) but Rheinmetall had 88 Leo 1A5 in the back yard in April. It is, after all, only like taking your 2010 Volvo in exchange for the 2020 model and then unloading it/them on a buyer whose pockets aren't so well padded

https://www.rnd.de/politik/rheinmeta...WGF7B3D4Q.html

That's a different topic as they can't convert the 1A5's to 2A7's and the proposed 1,5bn€ price tag fits the price of 100 brand new 2A7's of approx 14M€ each plus training.

[Tartiflette Fan]

Originally Posted by Beamr

That's a different topic as they can't convert the 1A5's to 2A7's and the proposed 1,5bn€ price tag fits the price of 100 brand new 2A7's of approx 14M€ each plus training.

You said you were doubtful that there were actually stocks of tanks held by German manufacturers and I was answering that point. I am certain that I read months back that KMW has around 100 Leo 2 in store but i couldn't find confirmation.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by Tartiflette Fan

You said you were doubtful that there were actually stocks of tanks held by German manufacturers and I was answering that point. I am certain that I read months back that KMW has around 100 Leo 2 in store but i couldn't find confirmation.

aa... ok, understood. I knew there are older models idling around, but the latest and greatest 2A7 does not include in those. First batch built around 2013, all the 2A7's are built to order and delivered to customers. The 1A5's date all the way back to 60's and many of those are already upgrades from 1A2's/3's/4's.

[ORAC]

Things not going well for th3 Russians in Kherson. Reportedly losing the equivalent of a BTG a day….

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...HZdIyIruSfeCfw

There is a noticeable change in rhetoric in certain Russian channels recently: while large propagandists continue with victorious proclamations, smaller guys appear more desperate, like this character currently fighting, saying the situation in Kherson is becoming catastrophic.

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/sta...HZdIyIruSfeCfw

This is one of the better recent threads on the Ukrainian armed forces Kherson offensive.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...007884288.html

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

Things not going well for th3 Russians in Kherson…



There is a noticeable change in rhetoric in certain Russian channels recently: while large propagandists continue with victorious proclamations, smaller guys appear more desperate, like this character currently fighting, saying the situation in Kherson is becoming catastrophic.

Quite some text, just to extract a few sentences: "What to do now? .... in extreme case to pull back to the Dniepr and inflict strikes on the major cities of the enemy with tactical nuclear charges"
not to mention the talks of filtration centres for the people of occupied territory etc.

[Beamr]

Originally Posted by ORAC

This is one of the better recent threads on the Ukrainian armed forces Kherson offensive.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...007884288.html

Wait, what, on the post #12 on that thread it is claimed that Ukraine is currently manufacturing their own equivalent of Excalibur projectile for the M777.
Anyone able to find any proofs of that?

[ORAC]

UKR using Iranian shells. Got to be a story behind tha5 purchase….

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status...HZdIyIruSfeCfw