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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Chronic Snoozer 17th Sep 2020 09:55


Originally Posted by LapSap (Post 10887014)
Get a grip...

"Lighten up, Francis"

slats11 17th Sep 2020 11:26

The data from multiple serosurveys around the world have shown that anything up to 20% of a population have antibodies (and hence their immune system has been challenged by the virus). Places like NYC and Northern Italy have antibody rates of this level. In both cases, that was WAY in excess of their positive swab test rate.

Other places have lower numbers, but same pattern with antibody rates consistently >> swab rates.

Part of the explanation is the swab is not that sensitive. Within the first few days of exposure to the virus, the swab will usually be negative - even in people who will become infected. In the first few days after exposure and before symptoms, 70-80% of swabs will be negative.

Understand that most testing is in this group - people who were at a hotel or whatever 2 nights ago. 80% of people who become infected may well be negative that early. But finding 20% is useful from a public health perspective as it may allow you to get R0 from 1.2 to 0.95 or whatever. If you do the public health swabs at 6-7 days after exposure, most of them will be positive, but by then these people will have infected others. So the swabs will be more accurate, but too late to help.

Same at the other end. The swab becomes negative again about 2 weeks after exposure. It is only a short window of 7 -10 days or so when the swab is likely to be positive.

So understand that the number of positive swabs has only a very lose association with what is happening in the community.


Graph 1 - different tests over time
Exposed at week - 1
Symptom onset at week 0 (7 days post-exposure)
Nasal PCR swab is blue line. Goes up a few days after exposure, peaks 1-2 days after symptoms, and is gone in a couple of weeks.
Green is IgG antibody. Later to rise, but stays up.
Over time, you will find more people with antibodies than ever had a positive swab - either they were not swabbed, or you missed the 2 week window.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....e9c7f16827.png

Graph 2 (top) - sensitivity of PCR over time
x axis = days since exposure
vertical dashed line = day 5 when symptoms usually start
y axis = probability nasal PCR will be NEGATIVE in a person who definitely has (or will get) COVID.
So guaranteed to miss day 0 and 1.
Maybe a few positive day 2 and a few more day 3
Day 4 may be positive in 1/3
By day 5, positive in greater than 50%

Most swabs done have been by public health on days 2-3.
Public health isn't your doctor trying to tell if you are going to get sick
Public health isn't primarily about capturing the most complete data - if so would swab days 6-7
Public health is trying to identify and stop chains of future transmission before they are established. You develop symptoms on day 5, and peak infectivity is earlier at day 4 (highly unusual - whether by accident or design, this virus is a bastard to track and contain). Allowing 24 hours to perform test and notify positive, that means you need to swab around day 2-3, when the test is poor. But you will find a few positives, and will find them in time to stop them infecting others. By day 7-8, you can find most of them - but after they have infected other people.

If you have R0 a bit above 1.0, finding 20% of future infectious people and isolating them may be enough to drive R0 below 1.0.

So that is how public health and PCR tests work.
Can you use this data to go back and say how many infections there have been in your community? No. Absolutely not.


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune....29a4c962fb.png

Turnleft080 17th Sep 2020 14:04

1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.


Australopithecus 17th Sep 2020 22:06


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 10887300)
1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

Because deaths lag cases, as you should well know by now. Of course the northern autumn/winter period has been predicted to be worse than the summer for obvious reasons. Regarding Vitamin D: some races do not react to sunlight the same as most caucasian people so supplements are needed. Vitamin D supplements are also not known to cause melanoma.

currawong 17th Sep 2020 22:24


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 10887300)
1 hr 7 min ago

World Health Organization warns of "alarming rates of transmission" across Europe

From CNN's Vasco Cotovio
The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a “very serious situation” is unfolding in Europe, as "alarming rates of transmission" of the coronavirus surge across the continent.“Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March,” WHO Regional Director Hans Kluge said during a press conference on Thursday.
“Last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.”Kluge added that more than half of Europe's countries have reported an increase of more than 10% in new cases in the past two weeks. "Of those, seven countries have seen newly reported cases increase more than two-fold in the same period,” he said. Kluge also said the increase in cases should serve as a warning of what is to come. “In the spring and early summer we were able to see the impact of strict lockdown measures. Our efforts, our sacrifices, paid off,” he said. “In June, cases hit an all-time low.”
“The September case numbers, however, should serve as a wake-up call for all of us."
“Although these numbers reflect more comprehensive testing, it also shows alarming rates of transmission across the region”

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So here is a WHO member Kluge, giving you the full wack of that good old fashion fear mongering. Rates have gone up 10% but no mention of deaths.
Why are you not reporting the deaths Mr Kluge? Let me think. Their is hardly any to report. Wow amazing.
The graphs are opening up between cases v deaths. Why can't he mention that.
Europe are coming off a summer where more heat and sun restricts the transmission, not bloody lockdowns.
WHO can you really trust these drongos now. Known about the disease since Dec.
Fauci has now said he is taking 6000IU of Vit D for the coming US winter. I wonder why?
Bring on that lovely Aussie sunshine and you councils don't even think about closing the beaches.
That's off my chest sleep well.

Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.


dr dre 17th Sep 2020 23:59


Originally Posted by currawong (Post 10887555)
Because the deaths will arrive in 2 - 3 weeks, thats why.

2 - 3 weeks from now the fatality graph will look like the infection graph, only smaller.

The two week lag works the other way too. It take two weeks for any measures to improve the situation to have any effect.

Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.






Bend alot 18th Sep 2020 00:09

They have changed the causes.

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

currawong 18th Sep 2020 05:53


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10887579)
Actually not exactly the case that’s happening.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...ountry/france/

France for instance. From the graph of reported cases (concentrating on the 7 day moving average) you can see there was a similar number of cases on August 28 (3 weeks ago) as there was at the peak of the first wave on roughly April 3rd. The corresponding deaths per day were already high but began to fall roughly 2 weeks later.

The second wave is already at double the moving average deaths per day but no corresponding increase in cases has been seen. The deaths per day moving average is at less than 40 today (Sep 18), if it was concurrent with the first wave the deaths per day should be at least 1000 per day and climbing.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...country/spain/

Second example Spain. They’ve had a slight higher second wave deaths per day but it’s still les than one tenth of the first wave. Their second wave peaked 30 days ago, Aug 19, but the corresponding deaths per day increase has been a fraction of the first, even though it should have risen within 14-21 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...untry/germany/

Then Germany. Moving average of cases per day 4 times higher than early July but average deaths still in single digits.

The UK’s second wave only started to increase at the start of the month so if there’ll be any increase in deaths it’ll happen over the next week or two, but if they follow the same pattern as the other 3 countries it won’t rise at all.

Look at the graphs, even after the second wave has been happening in Europe for more than a month, the deaths per day are not increasing. It is undeniably less deadly than the first wave.

Generally I agree, but for different reasons.

During the earlier peak, there was a bias towards only testing the sickest, due to test kit availability.

Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.

All down to test availability.

Respiratory viruses tend to follow cold weather patterns of circulation, putting Australia in a good position right now.

Northern hemisphere? Not so much.


dr dre 18th Sep 2020 06:34


Originally Posted by currawong (Post 10887649)
Now most get a test. Case fatality rate should therefore decrease, as testing rate increases, which it appears to be.

Bottom line? As cases go up, so will deaths. But should be more like Australia's 3% CFR and less like UK"s horrendous 11% CFR.

Even less, looking at the France and Germany figures of infections 14 days ago to deaths today the CFR was 0.7 and 0.5%.

Average influenza CFR? I’ve seen 0.1-0.6%?

currawong 18th Sep 2020 06:44

Yes, as more info comes to hand , the more we know.

Deaths are perhaps not all the info we need.

For example, UK covid hospital admissions have trebled in the last fortnight.

One would hope their rate of survival will be a lot better than those admitted three or so months ago.

Joker89 18th Sep 2020 07:31


Originally Posted by Bend alot (Post 10887583)

useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0

currawong 18th Sep 2020 08:51


Originally Posted by Joker89 (Post 10887683)
useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0

Your table only shows Australia.:rolleyes:

Here is a more complete picture, 12 months, global.

Current 9 month numbers place it about 11th in a 12 month table. (2017 data)

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/a...eaths-by-cause



Bend alot 18th Sep 2020 10:45


Originally Posted by Joker89 (Post 10887683)
useless graphic, fails to include leading causes of death.

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/3303.0

But shows what is below!

No known big ticket items below it, only stubbed toe type stuff.

But only about 9 months in, it out does road deaths!

Joker89 18th Sep 2020 10:46


Originally Posted by Bend alot (Post 10887806)
But shows what is below!

No known big ticket items below it, only stubbed toe type stuff.

But only about 9 months in, it out does road deaths!

let’s ban cars then, as the human race really needs to make sure people stop dying so much

Bend alot 18th Sep 2020 11:35


Originally Posted by Joker89 (Post 10887810)
let’s ban cars then, as the human race really needs to make sure people stop dying so much

I do not advocate banning anything - even seat belt wearing or helmet wearing.

They may slightly affect the death toll - but not really sure!

Section28- BE 20th Sep 2020 10:22

ex ABC News: NSW coronavirus death toll rises to 55........
 
Link: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-09-...tious/12682464

Article Quote/Extract here:

Ms Berejiklian confirmed two new cases of coronavirus on Sunday, one in hotel quarantine.

The other was a Sydney taxi driver who tested positive for coronavirus after working eight days while infectious and visiting several venues in Sydney and on the South Coast.

NSW Health said the confirmed coronavirus case drove in western and south-west Sydney on September 8-10 and 14-18.

People who rode in taxis in Moorebank, Bankstown, Chipping Norton, Liverpool, Lidcombe, Warwick Farm and Milperra may have been affected...........
rgds
S28- BE

Turnleft080 20th Sep 2020 12:51

A Sydney taxi driver. Lucky he didn't come across VicPol. He would of been rammed, pulled out, masked, handcuffed, kicked in the head, trialled, fined,
then we will ask some questions.

slats11 20th Sep 2020 16:33

https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/n...own-propaganda
More evidence of highly orchestrated social media reporting from China. So orchestrated it really has to be state sponsored.

China spent a lot of time trying to control the global narrative. Pity they didn’t spend as much time trying to find the origin and patient zero. But then, they may already have known.

clark y 20th Sep 2020 22:49

Does anybody know what is specifically meant by the term "reclassified" as stated almost daily with Victoria's Covid numbers? On a daily basis the total number and deaths are realeased and we are told to wait for further info. The media jumps on this. When the press conference occurs, the breakdown is given and it is extremely common for a portion of the total to be reclassified. The adjusted total which is usually lower is ignored.
Example: 20 Sept figures. Total 14 cases. 6 reclassified. Therefore there's was actually only 8 cases.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/coronavi...9-daily-update

Also, what is the relevance of the following if you actually only have 8 cases?
  • Within Victoria, 12 of the new cases are linked to outbreaks or complex cases and 2 are under investigation.

Just trying to understand what is causing us so much turmoil.

C441 20th Sep 2020 23:17

In relation to the title of this thread, has anyone received an explanation as to why positive cases can self isolate at home here in Queensland (and probably elsewhere) but someone returning from overseas who has a reasonable likelihood of not carrying Covid, has to go into hotel quarantine at their own expense?


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