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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

dr dre 17th Sep 2020 00:59


Originally Posted by Climb150 (Post 10886946)

I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.

Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.

Chronic Snoozer 17th Sep 2020 01:12


Originally Posted by blubak (Post 10886939)
Saw queen P on tv in qld yesterday bleating on about some new fire fighting aircraft,WOW ,what a difference 1 will make!

That'll be a QLD fire fighting aircraft to fight QLD fires no doubt.

Stickshift3000 17th Sep 2020 01:30


Originally Posted by clark y (Post 10886961)
Question time especially for Victorians. What is the significance of the "roadmap" to the next stage having a 14 day average of between 30-50 cases per day? Why not just 30 case average or 50 case average?

Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.

exfocx 17th Sep 2020 01:41


Originally Posted by Turnleft080 (Post 10886631)
In Mongolia, a couple died of bubonic plague on May 1 after reportedly hunting marmots, large rodents that can harbor
the bacterium that causes the disease, and eating the animal's raw meat and kidneys – which some Mongolians believe is good for their health.
Exfocx sounds
appetising. Hmm I wonder if the WHO approve of this new Mongolian franchise. Do you want chips with that. you said that the BP was no longer around, that it was DEAD!

Spanish Flu (Not a Covid) your correct is a H1 N1 strain caused by thousands of soldiers having poor hygiene and eating poorly during the war in freezing cold conditions. Yeah, that would bring a flu on. No problem. It wasn't caused by what you claim. "The war may also have reduced people's resistance to the virus. Some speculate the soldiers' immune systems were weakened by malnourishment, as well as the stresses of combat and chemical attacks, increasing their susceptibility." REDUCED their resistance!
When the war finished they transported the strain everywhere. what, just like cv! Yeah, mass transportation.
"Scientists offer several possible explanations for the high mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some analyses have shown the virus to be particularly deadly because it triggers a cytokine storm, which ravages the stronger immune system of young adults.[6]Oh, that doesn't coincide with your statement?
Note the word "POSSIBLE". So there not really sure. Leave that at that. Oh! a lot of evidence around that good old Vit D can protect you from a cytokine storm. I reckon the soldiers were very very D deficient and when that happens your susceptible to anything. Then what caused otherwise healthy people to die, people with no immune issues?

Viruses are dead cells out in the open until they infiltrate you, agreed. When you sneeze they only live for about 30sec in the open. where did you get this idea from. CV can survive on the surface of different materials from hrs up 3 days.
That's why infection is low in the open and contagious indoors. not for the reasons you give and it depends on the density of people, sports event and your claim is rubbish.
As I said before lockdowns prolong the virus thanks for the discussion There is no evidence AT ALL that supports that!.

***************


Climb150 17th Sep 2020 01:49


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10886964)
Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions. Australians ended up taking it seriously (most anyway).

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.

Are these the experts that said without measures CoVID would kill 2 million in the USA but with containment it would only be 1 million? Well how many have died so far is 200,000. That's with your so called half assed approach.

exfocx 17th Sep 2020 01:52


Originally Posted by dr dre (Post 10886964)
Youíre leaving out a very important part of those predictions, which said the death toll would be huge if we didnít take any precautions..................................

Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isnít taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.


Exactly! Everyone who argues the point always seem to conveniently leave this out.

Chronic Snoozer 17th Sep 2020 01:54


Originally Posted by Stickshift3000 (Post 10886970)
Although the 'roadmap' out of Vic restrictions is based on the best available scientific models, I personally believe that many of the restrictions have been ultra-conservative for political reasons.

Another high spike in cases and subsequent economic/business ramifications will ultimately spell doom for the current government. My views are not aligned with any political party, just seeing it how it is.

You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

slats11 17th Sep 2020 02:10


Have a look at the US where they took a half assed approach. Average flu year usually has a toll of 12,000-61,000 dead. The Covid toll so far is almost 200,000 after less than 6 months, and outside of the traditional flu season. Half the country isn’t taking it seriously. And their economy is in the toilet too, and society divided.
True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.

exfocx 17th Sep 2020 02:36


Originally Posted by slats11 (Post 10886988)
True. Partially.

But you will acknowledge that most 'flu deaths are never diagnosed. No one goes around nursing homes doing nasal PCR for 'flu - so all those people died of "old age" or "dementia", or something else. Thousands of people die from the 'flu each year and are never included in the stats.

The most honest data is total deaths. There has been a spike in total deaths, and this is due to COVID. But the harder we have looked for COVID, the more we have seen it.

So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed. I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.

Now, you say the most honest data is totally deaths etc etc etc. And your public health credentials in data analysis is what again? I'm pretty certain that public health officials have been doing this for a bit longer than anyone on here.

slats11 17th Sep 2020 02:55


So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?
No. I am saying there is very little attention given to the cause of death in nursing homes. It took a while before Italy recognised the scale of COVID deaths in the nursing homes - everyone was focussed on hospitals.


I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed.
It is widely accepted we have not diagnosed most COVID infections in Australia. Estimates vary between 70,000 to 500,000 total infections. Take your pick. And that is for a disease with unprecedented effort and expense directed at testing.


I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.
Wrong
I don't have to talk to a doctor - I look after patients in nursing homes. I tell the relatives that 'flu was a likely / possible cause of death, but could also have been aspiration, heart attack, stroke, pulmonary embolism - and that I can't be sure without testing.

Official 'flu data for Australia only counts lab confirmed cases. Again, this does not happen in nursing homes.

Have you ever previously seen teams of clinicians swabbing everyone in nursing homes? No, nor have I.

30+ years as a clinician, with some post-grad training in public health

Chronic Snoozer 17th Sep 2020 03:00


Originally Posted by exfocx (Post 10886994)
So what you're saying is they subscribed death to anything but flu, they go to all the trouble to to give a cause of death, but for some reason, they ignore the actual cause of death! Really?

I wouldn't acknowledge that most flu deaths are never diagnosed. I very certain you haven't had anyone close, like your mother for instance, where you would have spent a reasonable amount of time in an aged care home, otherwise you'd know they are VERY aware of flu as a killer of the residents. Talk to any Dr caring for residents in an aged care home and that's what they will tell you.

Now, you say the most honest data is totally deaths etc etc etc. And your public health credentials in data analysis is what again? I'm pretty certain that public health officials have been doing this for a bit longer than anyone on here.

Are you chaps sure you aren't confusing influenza with pneumonia?

601 17th Sep 2020 03:11


I have seen so many "experts" on the media spreading fear with their huge death predictions that didn't come true that you can forgive me for being sceptical when they open their mouths again.
And the reason why the "huge death predictions" did not come true are?

LapSap 17th Sep 2020 03:59


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 10886982)
You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

Get a grip...

Turnleft080 17th Sep 2020 05:02


Originally Posted by Chronic Snoozer (Post 10886982)
You don't seem to understand. Survival of the human race is at stake. We're facing extinction, mate.

Thank god for that, I thought it was something serious like a pimple on the nose. I'm sure you will survive. Give it a squeeze lets see what happens tomorrow.
Next patient please.

Square Bear 17th Sep 2020 05:16


Are you chaps sure you aren't confusing influenza with pneumonia?
Found some pneumonia figures for 2017....4269 pneumonia related deaths making it the 9th leading cause of deaths in Australia for that year.

To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.

Just saying,......


BuzzBox 17th Sep 2020 05:25


Originally Posted by Square Bear (Post 10887027)
To date there have been 824 deaths attributed to Covid 19 in AUS.
Just saying,......

Would you care to estimate how many COVID deaths we would have had if the Federal & State governments had not taken action?

Square Bear 17th Sep 2020 05:48

BuzzBox,
not against many of the precautions that the various Governments have taken at all, and in no way a denier....just believe some of the internal Border “closures” and some of the restrictions are over the top and seem simply hardwired to the “statement” that the restrictions are there for the health of that particular States population. .

Take the NT, “closed” borders.....,until the election was over that is. Queensland has an election coming up so easier to hide behind the banner of keeping you safe, magically the $110 Billion State Debt is not an issue and the State Borders open once that election is over.

And what gets me, how can each State have a Chief Medical Officer, the Commonwealth having one as well and they all come up with different restrictions about the same Covid, not like its a Qld Covid vs a NSW Covid vs a WA Covid etc etc.

Sure, by all means the Covid pandemic must be taken seriously, but how about looking at other causes of death at the same time and consider all the issues.

And as I said.....Just saying and ......just having a viewpoint.

slats11 17th Sep 2020 06:23

This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....erica.amp.html

So we don’t really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness don’t get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We don’t know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

It’s all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.

Bend alot 17th Sep 2020 07:38


Originally Posted by slats11 (Post 10887048)
This well written NYT may help

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....erica.amp.html

So we donít really know how many flu deaths a year - as most of those who are presumed to have died from a flu-related illness donít get tested and are not reported in official figures.

We donít know how many cases of COVID there have been in Australia - it likely lies between 70,000 (smh report yesterday) and 500,000 (NSW CHO estimate back in July). Either way, we have missed most infections.

Itís all a bit of a mess, but it is what it is. Things are not black or white. Biological systems are not aircraft, and public health is not CASA.

But for months many MANY tests have been taken with or without symptoms - it does not seem to be floating around in the back ground unnoticed. Certainly not in the estimated numbers you gave since we have taken around 7,200,000 tests to date = to around 27,000 positive cases.

Given lots of work places and sports groups have had mandatory testing since about the start - little to no (not aware of a single one) random cases have popped up.

But that is just my reasoning for not believing the estimates.

Stickshift3000 17th Sep 2020 09:35


Originally Posted by LapSap (Post 10887014)
Get a grip...

I assumed Chronic Snoozer's comments were sarcastic ... at least I bloody hope so!


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