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-   -   All borders to reopen. (https://www.pprune.org/australia-new-zealand-pacific/632861-all-borders-reopen.html)

Xeptu 22nd Aug 2021 05:27


Originally Posted by rez125 (Post 11099223)
Broke? Haven't been so busy in my profession ever.

There are plenty of people in Vic making good money and we cannot wait to spend it!

Glad to hear it mate, at least there's some good news out of VIC

DirectAnywhere 22nd Aug 2021 07:36


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11099175)
I'm struggling to understand your logic. What makes you think we in the largely unaffected states and that's all of us outside of NSW and VIC would want to even risk damage to our business and economy by opening our borders before we are confident we can.

Hi Xeptu, the logic is simply that Covid zero is dead in NSW. Like it or not, COVID is on its way to becoming endemic in NSW, possibly Vic too unless they can get on top of things. It's feasible to see a scenario in four months where NSW residents will be able to book their summer school holiday trip to Aspen or Fiji but won't be able to drive to Queensland or fly to WA to see nanna for Christmas.

We're in this situation because of a f&&k up in NSW, no doubt, but we are where we are. There will be a price to be paid in NSW in terms of lives, again no doubt. We will probably be seeing thousands of cases a day in NSW and tens of deaths a day by December, but that situation is inevitably coming now, like it or not. Vaccines will blunt the impact but COVID is here to stay. Other states are paying a price in different ways, but have the luxury still of making decisions about when they open up and to whom of they want to retain their COVID-zero status. So be it. As a domestic pilot, none of this is good news to me but I'm just giving my opinion as to the way things might play out. It's up to the state and territory governments if and when they open up. I'd rather see things open up as soon as we hit 80%, but that's self interest talking and seems unlikely given commentary from various premiers and chief ministers, in spite of what the PM wants.

Short story, I'm not sure if it's legal to open international borders in one state only but, if it is, I think it's likely that NSW residents will be travelling overseas before they will travel to WA unless things change somehow. Educated guess, but it's feeling that way to me.

Xeptu 22nd Aug 2021 08:36

DirectAnywhere

First let me say I feel your pain and extend that to all those vast majority in both NSW and VIC doing all the right things.
I agree with all that you are saying except any possibility of any of the borders opening this year.

I don't think NSW Health has their head around what is coming in the next week or so. You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.

layman 22nd Aug 2021 12:47

Excess deaths during Covid
 
Not the first time this site has been cited. The "Our World in Data" web site has a variety of graphs showing death rates from 2015 to the present.

The "Excess Mortality" graph (default country is the US) shows substantially higher death rates in 2020. Data is a little behind for 2021 e.g. United Kingdom is 'only' up to July 26, 2021.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/e...aw-death-count

Change country to Australia and you'll see our figures are not that much different from our average since 2015.

But if you care to look at a few others such as, Belgium, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, and they all show significant 'excess deaths' during 2021. Russia is also showing another substantial rise in 2021. United Kingdom figures to 26 July seem to be starting an upward trend just one week after their reducing restrictions.

Our advantages as an island have helped but I guess, despite their many fumbles, it would appear that Australian governments (and the vast majority of the population) have managed Covid fairly well ... at least in keeping the death toll down.

aviation_enthus 22nd Aug 2021 16:39


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11099175)
I'm struggling to understand your logic. What makes you think we in the largely unaffected states and that's all of us outside of NSW and VIC would want to even risk damage to our business and economy by opening our borders before we are confident we can.

What damage??

The only “damage” that will be inflicted by opening up AFTER +80% of people have been vaccinated, will come from Premiers like McGowan forcing lockdowns for no reason.

People WANT to travel. People WANT to go and an spend money on dinner/movies/AFL/etc. People WANT to live their lives, you only have to look to Europe and the USA to see the massive rebound in demand when vaccinations are at a high level and restrictions are removed.

If the vaccines work as the evidence suggests (high 90% reduction in hospitalisations), the health system will be able to cope with the expected cases in ICU.

There is NO excuse for a lockdown or border restrictions if the WA/QLD health system is able to cope with the expected number of hospitalisations. NONE.

”oh but what about Echo/Foxtrot/Gulf variant?!”

NOPE!

We have a vaccine that can be modified, we have a testing regime to identify cases and new variants, we have had 18 months to prepare medical facilities to deal with this, when we get to 80% vaccinated, the government should basically get out of the way and let people get on with their lives.

If Covid is going to be a long term, endemic issue, then the various state health departments will have to adjust their resources to deal with a change in requirements. Same as dealing with any other disease. That may mean more ICU places, or more staff trained to deal with respiratory disease etc.

In NSW the % of patients in ICU with COVID is still well under 10%. Numerous medical professionals have stated they are busier but nowhere near stretched. They could triple the numbers in ICU with Covid and still be ok.

SHVC 22nd Aug 2021 20:39

McGowen and Palachook are now reneging on their national cabinet agreement (again)

Saying that it was agreed before the NSW outbreak and now needs to be revised. I’m not sure what these two want, are they really that stupid to think you can eradicate covid yeah we had a good run but now it’s over. What do they expect in 5yrs time, expecting UK and US be at zero before allowing those travelers into their state?
Makes no sense their expectations moving forward.

Rabbitwear 22nd Aug 2021 21:19

Unfortunately all the premiers will come up with an excuse not to open . The vaccine will not change anything . If it does open the majority of people will catch COVID , even the vaccinated will become ill , may lose medical etc , we are heading into very dangerous territory as pilots and it appears there is no solution, only the strong will survive .

Gnadenburg 22nd Aug 2021 22:19


Originally Posted by Xeptu (Post 11099276)
You'll know they are in trouble when they call for help and it won't be there like it was for VIC, our staff don't want to do it again, our states know that and are doing everything they can to assure that doesn't happen. We don't have an endless supply of ICU staff. NSW knew that too and it didn't seem to matter to them.

Who are you? "Our staff" or in other threads "My girls" in relation to West Australian nurses? Are you a spokesperson for West Australian medical staff?

You promote fear and insularism; with more than a little parochial smugness. What an ordinary Australian attitude.



Originally Posted by SHVC (Post 11099568)
McGowen and Palachook are now reneging on their national cabinet agreement (again)

Saying that it was agreed before the NSW outbreak and now needs to be revised. I’m not sure what these two want, are they really that stupid to think you can eradicate covid yeah we had a good run but now it’s over. What do they expect in 5yrs time, expecting UK and US be at zero before allowing those travelers into their state?
Makes no sense their expectations moving forward.

Delta will hit these places because an Underground Railway of sorts will form easily with porous borders. Civil disobedience will spill out with no hope in sight. There are desperate people irrationally locked out, away from their livelihoods and loved ones. Everyday the hardship and hard luck stories are on the increase. A destructive political and social showdown is looming. How terribly sad.

Xeptu 22nd Aug 2021 22:32


Originally Posted by aviation_enthus (Post 11099512)
What damage??

The only “damage” that will be inflicted by opening up AFTER +80% of people have been vaccinated, will come from Premiers like McGowan forcing lockdowns for no reason.

People WANT to travel. People WANT to go and an spend money on dinner/movies/AFL/etc. People WANT to live their lives, you only have to look to Europe and the USA to see the massive rebound in demand when vaccinations are at a high level and restrictions are removed.

If the vaccines work as the evidence suggests (high 90% reduction in hospitalisations), the health system will be able to cope with the expected cases in ICU.

There is NO excuse for a lockdown or border restrictions if the WA/QLD health system is able to cope with the expected number of hospitalisations. NONE.

”oh but what about Echo/Foxtrot/Gulf variant?!”

NOPE!

We have a vaccine that can be modified, we have a testing regime to identify cases and new variants, we have had 18 months to prepare medical facilities to deal with this, when we get to 80% vaccinated, the government should basically get out of the way and let people get on with their lives.

If Covid is going to be a long term, endemic issue, then the various state health departments will have to adjust their resources to deal with a change in requirements. Same as dealing with any other disease. That may mean more ICU places, or more staff trained to deal with respiratory disease etc.

In NSW the % of patients in ICU with COVID is still well under 10%. Numerous medical professionals have stated they are busier but nowhere near stretched. They could triple the numbers in ICU with Covid and still be ok.

So lets address what you said here, everything you say here has merit "if" your right.
NSW has the largest ICU capability in the nation, double the capacity of any other state. That's important to remember. NSW Health despite what they say that they have planned and ready for, are not. Nothing can prepare them for what's coming and the "few" of their staff that served alongside our staff in VIC know it.
By late September we expect NSW to be calling for help, by mid October the scenes in the media won't be pleasant and that will continue for at least a month well into November.

With that forecast in mind what are the chances of any of the other states following their lead and even think about opening borders.

43Inches 22nd Aug 2021 22:48


Delta will hit these places because an Underground Railway of sorts will form easily with porous borders.
Not what is showing if borders are closed tight, as opposed to letting workers through, say from Sydney to Melbourne, which sparked Melbourne's latest outbreak. Whether I agree that's a fair and balanced method, not the point.


Civil disobedience will spill out with no hope in sight. There are desperate people irrationally locked out, away from their livelihoods and loved ones. Everyday the hardship and hard luck stories are on the increase. A destructive political and social showdown is looming. How terribly sad.
The main issue with civil disobedience is just those that are not following the rules, which may account for 1-5% of the population, say 50,000-250,000 in Sydney or Melbourne. These are not the protesters or trouble makers, just those going out and spreading the thing within their community, this is the quiet growing number that is killing any chance of lockdowns ending before vaccination targets are reached.

The protesting minority is less than 0.1% of the population, strangely enough you are more likely to die of covid than attend a protest on "freedom". That said these individuals are having no real impact on lockdowns, and are just causing trouble and most likely pushing authorities to further restrictions, hence why most of the public think they are fools. The only effect they may actually have is make restrictions worse, mass protests and rioting just results in martial law.

The protests in Melbourne were an anarchists perfect dream, thugs rushing police, kids involved and getting sprayed, remember those setting these things up revel in that. Not whether you are free.

Xeptu 22nd Aug 2021 23:04


Originally Posted by Gnadenburg (Post 11099602)
You promote fear and insularism; with more than a little parochial smugness. What an ordinary Australian attitude.

Ah! of course it's monday the call centre brigade are back.
Spoken like a true chinese national beating to a different drum.

LapSap 22nd Aug 2021 23:16


Originally Posted by Rabbitwear (Post 11099582)
Unfortunately all the premiers will come up with an excuse not to open . The vaccine will not change anything . If it does open the majority of people will catch COVID , even the vaccinated will become ill , may lose medical etc , we are heading into very dangerous territory as pilots and it appears there is no solution, only the strong will survive .

Welcome to the history of the planet so far and Mother Nature. She ALWAYS wins.

galdian 22nd Aug 2021 23:40

The average australian is increasingly accepting that when we get to a point where all those who can/will are vaccinated then the validity of lockdowns become increasingly questionable.
The average australian is also increasingly accepting that at some stage we have to live with this and accept a level of sickness, hospitalisation, ICU and death; being vaccinated will lessen the effects of Covid, Covid cannot be eliminated.

The timeline is nominally end of this year, the Feds will make it clear - they already are - there will be no hope for financial assistance to lockdown states after this time; there'll probably be assistance/infrastructure grants available for states who won't lockdown.
I would hope and expect there will always be assistance at the ground level for any states that require it.

ScoMo will run a February campaign on the basis of as far as possible everything being open by Easter school holidays.
Labor will have trouble balancing their support for Comrade Dictators Vs the peoples reasonable expectations that "we're vaccinated, lets go": ScoMo will win (whether you think he should or not's irrelevant).

The average australian may wear lockdowns for now, once all are vaccinated they won't because common sense says it's no longer a valid (or as valid) approach.

Paragraph377 22nd Aug 2021 23:48

Civil disobedience has started. This is just the beginning. It was inevitable. “When people lose everything, and have nothing left to lose, they lose it”. For many of us on here, we have a measure of wealth already. COVID does have an impact, but not to the extent that it will set us back 40 years. For other people, their $200 per week delivering junk mail is all that they have. Take that away and they have nothing. That’s why politicians are idiots. Sitting fat and happy on their own little rich bubbles with no concept of how the other 99% live. It will only get more volatile as the more desperate people become.




43Inches 22nd Aug 2021 23:58


For other people, their $200 per week delivering junk mail is all that they have. Take that away and they have nothing.
You do realise these people are not locked down, I say hello to my local junk-mailers and paper rounders as I walk around my 5 km limit. BTW I have a mate that was a major store chain manager who did a paper round while earning $300,000 a year, why, cause he liked doing it, he is a bit strange, don't sleep etc, but all the same don't just assume who is delivering your papers. He runs his own business now making a few million.

Stickshift3000 23rd Aug 2021 00:10


Originally Posted by Paragraph377 (Post 11099637)
For other people, their $200 per week delivering junk mail is all that they have. Take that away and they have nothing.

The dole pays more...

Capn Rex Havoc 23rd Aug 2021 00:11

43In - you have an uncanny knack for picking one example and somehow proffering that as evidence that everything is ok. Paragraph377 was giving a general - realistic view of the economic hardship that is a bloody reality out there for tens of thousands. So maybe your local junk mail delivery fellow is still working (hard to see how delivering junk mail is essential) but the their are a hell of a lot of other people, in the arts, hospitality, tourism etc etc who have had a gut full. The protests will get bigger and bigger from now on.

Xeptu 23rd Aug 2021 00:20


Originally Posted by galdian (Post 11099633)
The average australian is increasingly accepting that when we get to a point where all those who can/will are vaccinated then the validity of lockdowns become increasingly questionable.
The average australian is also increasingly accepting that at some stage we have to live with this and accept a level of sickness, hospitalisation, ICU and death; being vaccinated will lessen the effects of Covid, Covid cannot be eliminated.

The timeline is nominally end of this year, the Feds will make it clear - they already are - there will be no hope for financial assistance to lockdown states after this time; there'll probably be assistance/infrastructure grants available for states who won't lockdown.

I agree with what you say here and I'm sure most do. I think the timeline is pushed back now because of what's about to unfold in NSW. The states understand that by waving the carrot around about open borders and reduced restrictions too soon only inflames the restless ones and promotes covid fatigue. Something I'm sure NSW deeply regrets.
I wouldn't read too much into what the leaders say nationally in the media, that's more about staying the path, what they actually do is quite different.

Lead Balloon 23rd Aug 2021 00:36


Originally Posted by 43Inches (Post 11099641)
You do realise these people are not locked down, I say hello to my local junk-mailers and paper rounders as I walk around my 5 km limit. ....

And that's the problem!

The virus does not know that "lockdown" and "border closure" are mere rhetorical flourishes. There have been a small number of circumstances in which the reality has come close to the rhetoric, and NSW moving a little closer in some LGAs, but the delta between the reality and the rhetoric is the primary cause of the spread (pun intended).

Paragraph377 23rd Aug 2021 00:39


Originally Posted by Capn Rex Havoc (Post 11099647)
43In - you have an uncanny knack for picking one example and somehow proffering that as evidence that everything is ok. Paragraph377 was giving a general - realistic view of the economic hardship that is a bloody reality out there for tens of thousands. So maybe your local junk mail delivery fellow is still working (hard to see how delivering junk mail is essential) but the their are a hell of a lot of other people, in the arts, hospitality, tourism etc etc who have had a gut full. The protests will get bigger and bigger from now on.

Thank goodness someone understands my point.

Then again, this is PPprune, a land where opinionated self serving pilots (and ex-pilots, including yours truly) inhabit and offer robust opinion, debate and argument on all manner of things from world politics and the theory of a universal deity to cooking truffle and goat cheese soufflé’s, to anal bleachings!




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